Joint Operation and Dynamic Control of Flood Limiting Water Levels for Cascade Reservoirs

Reservoirs are among the most effective tools for integrated water resources development and management. The dynamic control of reservoir flood limiting water level (FLWL) is a valuable and effective method to compromise the flood control and conservation for reservoir operation during the flood season. This paper focuses on joint operation and dynamic control of FLWL for cascade reservoirs. A composition and decomposition-based model that consists of an aggregation module, a storage decomposition module and a simulation operation module was developed. The model was applied to the Qingjiang basin in south of China using the 3-hour inflow data series for representative hydrological years. Application results indicate that the proposed model can make an effective tradeoff between the flood control and hydropower generation. Joint operation and dynamic control of FLWL can increase power production by 4.51 % (1.79?×?10⁸?kWh) and increase water use rate by 2.73 %. It can enhance benefits of the Qingjiang cascade reservoirs without compromising flood prevention objectives.     

基于优水优用的水库可供水量研究

以长江水库为研究对象,采用长系列法供需平衡分析计算进行了基于优水优用的水库可供水量分析.结果表明,考虑优水优用后,水库的可供水量在不影响现状功能的基础上可适当增加,不仅能实现水资源优化配置,也能适当缓解汛期下游防洪压力.     

基于SVM的河道洪峰水位校正预报方法

针对平原河网地区河道洪峰水位预报中经验模型可靠性不足的问题,提出一种基于SVM的河道洪峰水位校正预报方法。采用谱系聚类法对历史洪水过程数据按降雨特性分类,选择与预报降雨过程最接近的历史数据训练预报模型;采用PCA对输入数据降维以提取有效特征;基于支持向量回归机建立河道洪峰水位预报模型;采用滚动模式对洪峰水位预报,每小时根据最新水位以及降水信息预报未来洪峰水位,不断提高预报精度。通过对京杭运河拱宸桥站的洪峰水位实例预测验证了该研究方法的有效性。     

水库在中心镇建设中的防洪作用

我省中心镇防洪建设将日益紧迫,中心镇防洪建设做好科学规划工作很重要。该文结合当前中心镇防洪规划工作,从水文学的角度,探讨水库调蓄对小流域汇流特性的影响,分析论证水库在中心镇建设中的防洪作用。     

小型水库防汛报汛工作机制研究

通过X县小型水库库容数据全面复核、管护模式创新完善、预报预警机制构建、基于手机的防汛报汛系统研发等环节开展的研究工作,逐步建立了该县小型水库防汛报汛安全保障体系,以加强小型水库管理,确保水库安全运行和效益的充分发挥。     

Hedging Rule Optimisation for Water Supply Reservoirs System

This article presents a methodology for planning a modelfor the operation of a drinking water reservoir. The hedging ruledistributes deficits over a longer period of time by rationingthe supply of water and it makes the system sustainablewith a marginal reduction in supply. A methodology isdeveloped and demonstrated through a case study withthe Chennai city (India) water supply system which isa water shortage system requiring an efficient use ofwater. It is aimed at improving the reservoiroperation performance through the simulation–optimisationprocedure with the application of the hedging rule, whichis a more appropriate rule for reservoir operationunder deficit conditions. To speed up the optimisationprocess, a neural network model is developed for thesimulation of the reservoir system operation and is usedinstead of a conventional simulation model. Thecombined neural network simulation–optimisation modelis used for screening the operation policies.     

优化防洪调度合理确定大藤峡水利枢纽防洪库容规模

大藤峡水利枢纽是西江流域的防洪控制性枢纽工程,但由于正常淹没实物指标大且存在防洪超蓄运用问题,导致工程迟迟不能立项.为促使大藤峡工程顺利实施,珠江委在新一轮《珠江流域防洪规划》中,调整思路,对大藤峡的防洪调度规则、防洪库容规模、起调水位及调洪任务进行优化,在确保流域防洪安全的前提下,将兴利库容与防洪库容完全结合,大大减少了水库正常淹没的实物指标,避免了水库调洪超蓄运用.     

南煤供水管线对河道防洪的影响分析

通过对桃河上游坡头桑掌段的防洪设计各参数的准确计量,对防洪影响进行综合评价,该评价方法对南煤集团供水工程泵房建设具有指导意义。     

A Multi-criteria Decision-making Optimization Model for Flood Management in Reservoirs

Water Resources Management - Flood management in a reservoir-outlet system is a multi-criterion decision-making (MCDM) issue, in which preventing flood damage and flood overtopping, as well as...     

降雨预报信息下高关水库汛限水位动态控制风险分析

以高关水库为对象,在分析水库降雨预报可利用性的基础上,对"24 h无雨"和"24 h小雨"预报信息下高关水库汛限水位动态控制产生的风险进行了分析。计算结果表明:高关水库在目前预报水平下,利用降雨预报信息开展汛限水位管理工作时不仅没有增加额外的风险,而且增加了水库效益。     

洪水预报误差对预泄控制法汛限水位动态控制的风险分析

以清江大龙潭水库为例,利用误差及统计学理论,进行洪水预报误差对预泄控制法汛限水位动态控制的防洪调度风险分析,结果表明,利用洪水预报进行大龙潭水库汛限水位动态控制存在一定的防洪调度风险,但风险较小,可通过提高预报精度、结合气象预报信息决策调度,实现风险可控。     

Tariff Suitability Framework for Water Supply Services

Water supply (WS) tariffs have evolved significantly in the past decades, although in a varying fashion around the world. Indeed, this development is linked to increasingly demanding requirements, or objectives that have to be achieved by water utilities (e.g., stricter quality standards and infrastructure maintenance levels, cost recovery, social concerns and environmental protection demands). The perception of WS tariffs as a powerful management tool, subject to context dependent objectives, raises the concern on how utilities prioritize them. This hierarchy is desirable due to the possible conflicting nature of objectives. From that point of view, and on the basis of protecting the public interest, the fitness between objectives set by the utilities and actual needs may require a broader institutional approach. The need for regulatory activity may be required in the context of too much arbitrariness in tariff setting procedures. For this objective, a regulatory tool is set, based on multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) modeling methods, to provide a requisite framework capable of considering the multiple dimensions of WS tariffs and the assessment of specialists, practitioners and other legitimate stakeholders in the ‘tariff setting’ decision making process. The specified tariff suitability framework (TSF) will work as a regulatory tool, taking into account the utilities’ particular context and background factors. The outcomes allow to determine the tariff suitability and to build tailored policy recommendations, which are critical aspects for a sound regulation.     

基于防洪预报调度调整水库汛限水位的研究

汛限水位是协调水库运行管理中防洪与兴利矛盾的关键参数之一,也是实现洪水资源安全利用的重要指标。以于桥水库为例,研究以累积净雨为判别洪水指标的预报调度方式及规则,分析了防洪预报调度方式的运行机理及其对水库调度的影响,并采用防洪风险和蓄水效益综合评价体系,确定出相对合理的汛限水位控制值。研究结果表明,采用合理的预报调度方式和综合评价体系,可经济安全地抬高汛限水位,实现汛期洪水资源的安全利用。     

Multivariate Bayesian Regression Approach to Forecast Releases from a System of Multiple Reservoirs

This research presents a model that simultaneously forecasts required water releases 1 and 2 days ahead from two reservoirs that are in series. In practice, multiple reservoir system operation is a difficult process that involves many decisions for real-time water resources management. The operator of the reservoirs has to release water from more than one reservoir taking into consideration different water requirements (irrigation, environmental issues, hydropower, recreation, etc.) in a timely manner. A model that forecasts the required real-time releases in advance from a multiple reservoir system could be an important tool to allow the operator of the reservoir system to make better-informed decisions for releases needed downstream. The model is developed in the form of a multivariate relevance vector machine (MVRVM) that is based on a sparse Bayesian regression model approach. With this Bayesian approach, a predictive confidence interval is obtained from the model that captures the uncertainty of both the model and the data. The model is applied to the multiple reservoir system located in the Lower Sevier River Basin near Delta, Utah. The results show that the model learns the input–output patterns with high accuracy. Computing multiple-time-ahead predictions in real-time would require a model which guarantees not only good prediction accuracy but also robustness with respect to future changes in the nature of the inputs data. A bootstrap analysis is used to guarantee good generalization ability and robustness of the MVRVM. Test results demonstrate good performance of predictions and statistics that indicate robust model generalization abilities. The MVRVM is compared in terms of performance and robustness with another multiple output model such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN).     

模糊集理论下水库汛期隶属度数学模型与汛限水位计算

总结了常见的水库汛限水位调度模式,以汛期模糊集理论为依据,讨论这些调度模式下汛期隶属度的数学模型,分析各种调度模式的特点,提出用三角函数做无参函数计算汛期隶属度的一种数学模型,并以余弦函数计算水库后汛期的隶属度;提出以主汛期汛限水位到兴利水位之间库容作为汛期隶属度计算防洪库容的方法,并给出算例。     

抓住机遇 做好西部地区防洪工作

一、西部地区水库概况 据统计,西部地区共有大型水库93座,其中病险水库34座;重点中型水库305座,其中病险水库159座。具体分布情况见表。 二、西部地区水库主要安全问题 西部地区水库,大多数修建于50～60年代,经过多年运行,这此水库老化失修严重,3成以上的大型水库、5成以上的重点中型水库是病险库,这些病险水库时刻威胁着下游地区人民生命财产安全。     

水库汛限水位动态控制方法研究及其应用

在对水库汛限水位动态控制管理运用中涉及到的几个关键问题进行研究分析的基础上,提出在不降低水库原防洪标准的前提下,考虑短时气象降雨和洪水实时预报信息的汛限水位动态控制方法。该方法考虑了预报误差的规律,能在降雨和洪水发生、发展及消退的演进过程中,按预报信息种类和精度分阶段、分层次地判断洪水量级,并及时作出合理调度决策,既利用了不同预报信息,又考虑了各自的误差风险率,具有可操作性强、洪水资源利用率高的特点,可用于汛期全过程实时调度,运用于隔河岩水库,每年平均增加发电量3900万kW·h。     

双阳区城市防洪预案的补充编制

从双阳区城市防洪预案的补充编制入手。介绍了计算机在实际工作中的应用。介绍了县级城市防洪预案编制的方法、过程和成果。     

浅谈大型供水工程总干渠防洪建筑物设计与运行

本文介绍了在复杂地形地貌条件下长距离、大流量供水渠道防洪建筑物的设计成果,总结了在工程运行过程中取得的实践经验,以期为今后类似工程的防洪设计与运行提供借鉴。     

浅析山美水库发电、防洪、供水效益

该文通过对山美水库枢纽工程的特性和所处自然、经济条件、位置,阐述了山美水库30多年来的综合效益。