Reliability assessment of a tanker using the model correction factor method based on the IACS-CSR requirement for hull girder ultimate strength

The model correction factor method (MCFM) is adopted to assess the reliability of a Suezmax oil tanker considering the ultimate vertical bending moment capacity of the hull girder as a limit state. The approach uses the incremental iterative method proposed by the International Association of Classification Societies (IACS) Common Structural Rules (CSR) to evaluate the hull girder ultimate strength as a response model that is calibrated iteratively at the design points calculated by the First Order Reliability method (FORM) by means of advanced non-linear Finite Element Analyses (FEA). The considered loads are the still water and the wave-induced bending moments in a typical seagoing operational condition of the oil tanker in the full load and ballast load conditions. First, the predictions of the hull girder bending capacities calculated by the IACS-CSR method and by non-linear FEA are compared and then the efficiency of the MCFM for hull girder reliability problems is illustrated. It is shown that using semi-empirical response models, which include the important mechanical features with respect to the bending capacity of the ship hull girder, the reliability evaluation can be performed with a limited number of non-linear FEAs (less than 10) promoting the application of advanced response and reliability methods to complex structures.