CO2 emissions change from the introduction of diesel passenger cars: Case of Greece

An efficient way to decrease the CO₂ emissions is the replacement of gasoline passenger cars (PC) by diesel ones, which emit less CO₂. This can be more effective in Greece where the percentage of new diesel PC remains less than 1%, contrary to the other countries of the European Union, which have high diesel penetrations. The benefit of CO₂ emitted from new PC is studied in the case of an increased percentage of diesel PC in Greece, using several scenarios taking into account the current and future new car registrations and fuel consumption. The results show that a CO₂ emission reduction of more than 5.2% can be achieved if a diesel penetration higher than 30% occurs in the case of current fleet. If the penetration reaches 50%, this benefit is higher than 10.5%. Exhaust CO₂ emissions from future new PC will increase significantly in this country and can be partially controlled by the introduction of diesel PC.     

CO2 benefit from the increasing percentage of diesel passenger cars. Case of Ireland

The decrease of CO₂ emissions is one way to minimize climate changes. An efficient way to decrease these emissions is the replacement of gasoline passenger cars (PCs) by diesel ones, which emit less CO₂. Most of the member countries of the European Union (EU) have high percentages of new diesel PC registrations; however, this percentage remains less than 17% in Ireland. The benefit on CO₂ emitted from new PCs is studied in the case of an increased diesel penetration in Ireland, after several scenarios using the current and estimated future PC sales and estimated fuel consumption. The results show that, in the case of new PCs, a CO₂ benefit of more than 2.9% can be achieved, if a diesel penetration higher than 30% occurs in the case of the current fleet. If this penetration reaches 50%, this benefit will be higher than 7.4%. Future total CO₂ emissions from new PCs can be partially controlled by the introduction of diesel PC or the replacement of heavy PCs by lighter ones. Future fuel consumption of gasoline and diesel PCs and the percentage of diesel penetration are the key factors for this control.     

Dazzled by diesel? The impact on carbon dioxide emissions of the shift to diesels in Europe through 2009

This paper identifies trends in new gasoline and diesel passenger car characteristics in the European Union between 1995 and 2009. By 2009 diesels had captured over 55% of the new vehicle market. While the diesel version of a given car model may have as much as 35% lower fuel use/km and 25% lower CO₂ emissions than its gasoline equivalent, diesel buyers have chosen increasingly large and more powerful cars than the gasoline market. As a result, new diesels bought in 2009 had only 2% lower average CO₂ emissions than new gasoline cars, a smaller advantage than in 1995. A Laspeyres decomposition investigates which factors were important contributors to the observed emission reductions and which factors offset savings in other areas. More than 95% of the reduction in CO₂ emissions per km from new vehicles arose because both diesel and gasoline new vehicle emissions/km fell, and only 5% arose because of the shift from gasoline to diesel technology. Increases in vehicle mass and power for both gasoline and diesel absorbed much of the technological efficiency improvements offered by both technologies. We also observe changes in the gasoline and diesel fleets in eight EU countries and find changes in fuel and emissions intensities consistent with the changes in new vehicles reported. While diesel cars continue to be driven far farther than gasoline cars, we attribute only some of this difference to a “rebound effect”. We conclude that while diesel technology has permitted significant fuel savings, the switch from gasoline to diesel in the new vehicle market contributed little itself to the observed reductions in CO₂ emissions from new vehicles.     

Analysis of the CO2 emissions and of the other characteristics of the European market of new passenger cars. 1. Analysis of general data and analysis per country

Exhaust CO₂ emitted from passenger cars is one of the major greenhouse effect gases. Several parameters influence the exhaust CO₂ emissions of each passenger car: its characteristics (fuel used, vehicle weight, …) and its use (annual mileage, driving conditions, …). CO₂ emissions from passenger cars decrease during last years; however, this decrease seems to reach its limits. Several parameters of the EU15 new PCs market, such as new passenger cars registrations, type of fuel used, engine capacity, max. power, max. specific power, segment distribution, vehicle weight and their CO₂ emissions on the New European Driving Cycle are analyzed here. The target is to find the real market parameters influencing exhaust CO₂ emissions. Because of the many data used and the parameters examined, this first part of the work is focused on the average values of each parameter studied and the values of each country, while the second part is based on the analysis of each PC segment and the third one on the analysis of the major brands presented in the European market.     

The impact of fiscal and other measures on new passenger car sales and CO2 emissions intensity: Evidence from Europe

This paper examines the impact of national fiscal measures in the EU (EU15) on passenger car sales and the CO₂ emissions intensity of the new car fleet over the period 1995–2004. CO₂ emissions and energy consumption from road transport have been increasing in the EU and as a result since 1999 the EU has attempted to implement a high profile policy strategy to address this problem at European level. Less prominent is the fact that Member States apply vehicle and fuel taxes, which may also be having an impact on the quantity of passenger cars sold and their CO₂ emissions intensity. Diesel vehicle sales have increased appreciably in many countries over the same period and this study makes a first attempt to examine whether Member State fiscal measures have influenced this phenomenon. This work uses a panel dataset to investigate the relationship between national vehicle and fuel taxes on new passenger car sales and the fleet CO₂ emissions intensity in EU15 over a 10-year period. Our results show that national vehicle and fuel taxes have had an impact on passenger car sales and fleet CO₂ emissions intensity and that different taxes have disparate effects.     

A quantitative analysis of the European Automakers’ voluntary commitment to reduce CO2 emissions from new passenger cars based on independent experimental data

The reduction of CO₂ emissions and fuel consumption from road transportation constitutes an important pillar of the European Union strategy for implementing the Kyoto Protocol. The commitment to reduce passenger car average CO₂ emissions at 140 g/km in 2008 signed by European car manufacturers and the European Commission is up to now the most important initiative towards limiting CO₂ emissions from road transportation and particularly from passenger cars. Until today, annual reports show the manufacturers’ efforts in limiting CO₂ emissions is within the intermediate target set by the commitment and these results are incorporated in emissions estimations and scientific studies. This paper analyses the origin of the progress achieved so far in CO₂ emissions and attempts an assessment of the commitment using independent experimental emission data. Additionally, the applicability of the commitment-monitoring data into policy and decision-making tools is being examined. The results indicate that a significant part of the reductions achieved so far is due to a market shift towards diesel vehicle sales and that no reduction factors should be applied yet in CO₂ emissions estimation models.     

Energy saving and CO2 mitigation through restructuring Jordan's transportation sector: The diesel passenger cars scenario

The transportation sector is responsible for 37% of the total final energy consumption in Jordan, with passenger cars taking a share of 57% in this sector. Improvement of the energy efficiency of the transportation sector can help in alleviating socio-economic pressures resulting from the inflating fuel bill and in lowering the relatively high CO₂ emission intensity. Current legislations mandate that all passenger cars operating in Jordan are to be powered with spark ignition engines using gasoline fuel. This paper examines potential benefits that can be achieved through the introduction of diesel cars to the passenger cars market in Jordan. Three scenarios are suggested for implementation and investigated with a forecasting model on the basis of local and global trends over the period 2007–2027. It is demonstrated that introducing diesel passenger cars can slow down the growth of energy consumption in the transportation sector resulting in significant savings in the national fuel bill. It is also shown that this is an effective and feasible option for cutting down CO₂ emissions.     

Critique of the regulatory limitations of exhaust CO2 emissions from passenger cars in European union

Transport is the second emitter of CO₂ in the European Union, after the energy production sector, with constantly increased trend. European Union proposed the regulation 443/2009 to control the CO₂ emissions from new passenger cars. According to that regulation, the average, for each car manufacturer, CO₂ emissions of the new passenger cars registered in 2020 in European Union should not exceed the value of 95 g CO₂/km on the New European Driving Cycle. In the present work the regulation 443/2009 is analyzed and a critique is addressed to four points. The first point concerns the average upper limit of CO₂ emissions of each car manufacturer. The second point concerns the possible derogation for the low volume manufacturers and the third to the penalties for the extra CO₂ emissions. The fourth point concerns the value of the proposed average upper limit of CO₂ emissions and the possibility to be changed in the future. A change to the above points is proposed. The maximum decrease of CO₂ emissions and the principle of equality of citizens are the two principles of our propositions for the CO₂ regulations.     

On the way to 130 g CO2/km—Estimating the future characteristics of the average European passenger car

A new average CO₂ emissions limit for passenger cars was introduced in EU in 2009 imposing gradual average CO₂ emissions reduction to 130 g/km until 2015. This paper attempts to study possible changes in vehicle characteristics for meeting this limit taking into account the average European passenger car of 2007–2008. For this purpose first the most important factors affecting vehicle fuel consumption over the reference cycle (NEDC) are identified. At a second step, the CO₂ benefit from the optimisation of these factors is quantified, through simulations of 6 different passenger cars commonly found in the European fleet. For the simulations Advisor 2002 was employed and validated against published type approval data. The analysis indicated that substantial reductions in vehicle weight, tyre rolling resistance and engine efficiency are necessary to reach even the 2008 target. A 10% reduction in average vehicle weight combined with 10% better aerodynamic characteristics, 20% reduced tyre rolling resistance and a 7.5% increase in average powertrain efficiency can lead to CO₂ reductions of approximately 13% (about 138 g/km based on 2007–2008 fleet-wide performance). Complying with the 130 g/km within the next six-year timeframe will be a rather difficult task and additional technical measures appear to be necessary.     

How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars—Part II: Forecasting effects of feebates based on energy-efficiency

In this paper, we simulate the car market in order to forecast the effects of feebate systems based on an energy-labeling scheme using categories A to G. Very fuel-efficient (A) cars receive a cash incentive, highly inefficient (G) cars pay additional fees. Consumers have different price elasticities and behavioral options to react to feebates. They can switch to a smaller sized car, but as energy-efficiency varies widely within size segments, they can also stick to the preferred size class and choose a more efficient (smaller) engine. In addition, previously owned cars influence the next car to be chosen. We use an agent-based microsimulation approach particularly suited to predict environmental and market effects of feebates. Heteorogenous agents choose from a choice set drawn from a detailed fleet of new cars. Incentives of €2000 for A-labeled cars induce an additional rated CO₂ emission decrease of new car registrations between 3.4% and 4.3%, with CO₂ abatement costs between €6 and €13 per ton, and otherwise little undesired market disturbance. The risk of rebound effects is estimated to be low. After adopting the frequencies of consumer segments to a given country, the model presented is applicable to all European car markets.     

Influence of European passenger cars weight to exhaust CO2 emissions

The increase of atmospheric CO₂ concentration influences climate changes. The road transport sector is one of the main anthropogenic sources of CO₂ emissions in the European Union (EU). One of the main parameters influencing CO₂ emissions from passenger cars (PCs) is their weight, which increases during last years. For the same driving distance, heavier vehicles need more work than lighter ones, because they have to move an extra weight, and thus more fuel is consumed and thus increased CO₂ emissions. The weight control of new PCs could be an efficient way to control their CO₂ emissions. After an analysis of the EU new PCs market, their segment distribution and their weight, some estimations for 2020 are presented. Based on this analysis, 13 base scenarios using several ways for the control of the weight of future European new PCs are used to estimate their CO₂ emissions and the benefit of each scenario. The results show that a significant benefit on CO₂ emissions could be achieved if the weight of each PC does not exceed an upper limit, especially if this limit is quite low. The benefit obtained by limitations of weight is higher than the benefit obtained from the expected decreased future fuel consumption. Similar results are obtained when the weight of new PCs does not exceed an upper limit within each segment, or when the weight of each new PC decreases.     

Gasoline,diesel and climate policy implications—Insights from the recent evolution of new car sales in Germany

With the aid of detailed automobile sales data this paper looks into changes in car attributes and CO₂ emissions in Germany in the years 1998−2008, both at aggregate level and within individual car segments. New car CO₂ emissions have not decreased at the expected levels because of negligible downsizing and increasing power of diesel cars. Interestingly, today there are relatively more models available with higher-than-average emission levels than in the late 1990s. We further constructed matched pairs of gasoline and diesel models in order to explore how their power and emissions ratio has evolved during the same decade. Results imply that German consumers may not have chosen to buy the diesel powered matched pair of a gasoline car they would have bought a few years earlier; instead they selected among the variety of diesel cars available in the market, and preferred a more powerful diesel car than what they might have bought otherwise. These findings reinforce the view that low-carbon transport policies must address the issue of changes in vehicle size and performance, which compromise the environmental effectiveness of regulations. In contrast to current EU regulations, CO₂-related standards should discourage increases in a vehicle's weight and power.     

Analysis of the CO2 emissions and of the other characteristics of the European market of new passenger cars. 2. Segment analysis

This article analyzes the engine and vehicle characteristics and the CO₂ emissions of the new passenger cars for all segments of the European market. As in the first article of this work, the target is to find the real market parameters influencing exhaust CO₂ emissions. The present analysis is focused on the segment sales distribution (EU average and within each country) and also in four parameters of each segment influencing CO₂ emissions: average vehicle weight, average engine capacity, average maximum and specific power. The second part of this work concerns the CO₂ emissions of each segment on the New European Driving Cycle and its urban and extra urban parts.     

Analysis of CO2 emissions and of the other characteristics of the European market of new passenger cars. 3. Brands analysis

This article analyses the engine and vehicle characteristics and CO₂ emissions of the new passenger cars for the thirteen major brands of the European market. As in the first two articles of this work, the target is to find the real market parameters influencing exhaust CO₂ emissions. This analysis is focused on the sales distribution of the major brands, EU average and within each country, and four main parameters of each brand having an impact on CO₂ emissions: average vehicle weight, average engine capacity, average maximum and specific power. The average CO₂ emissions of each brand on the new European driving cycle and its urban and extra urban parts are examined at the last part of this article.     

How private car purchasing trends offset efficiency gains and the successful energy policy response

In 2006, energy-related CO₂ emissions from transport energy in Ireland were 168% above 1990 levels. Private cars were responsible for approx 45% of transport energy demand in 2006 (excluding fuel tourism). The average annual growth of new cars between 1990 and 2006 was 5.2%. This paper focuses on these new cars entering the private car fleet, in particular the purchasing trend towards larger size cars. This has considerably offset the improvements in the technical efficiency of individual car models. The analysis was carried out on the detailed data of each individual new vehicle entering the fleet in 2000–2006. The average CO₂ emissions per kilometre for new petrol cars entering the Irish fleet grew from 166 to 168 g CO₂/km from 2000 to 2005 and reduced to 164 in 2006. For diesel cars the average reduced from 166 in 2000 to 161 in 2006. The paper also discusses how a recent change in vehicle registration taxation and annual motor tax had a significant impact purchasing trends by supporting lower emission vehicles. Cars with emissions up to 155 g CO₂/km represented 41% of new private cars sold in Ireland in 2007 compared with 84% during the period July–November 2008.     

Type approval and real-world CO2 and NOx emissions from EU light commercial vehicles

In the European Union, light duty vehicles (LDVs) are subject to emission targets for carbon dioxide (CO₂) and limits for pollutants such as nitrogen oxides (NO_x). CO₂ emissions are regulated for both passenger vehicles (PV) and light commercial vehicles (LCV), as individual manufacturers are required to reach fleet averages of 130 g/km by 2015 and 175 g/km by 2017, respectively. In the case of PVs, it has been found that there is a significant divergence between real-world and type-approval CO₂ emissions, which has been increasing annually, reaching 40% in 2014. On-road exceedances of regulated NO_x emission limits for diesel passenger cars have also been documented. The current study investigated the LCV characteristics and CO₂ and NO_x emissions in the European Union. A vehicle market analysis found that LCVs comprise 17% of the diesel LDV market and while there were some data for CO₂ emissions, there were hardly any data publicly available for NO_x emissions. Monitoring the divergence in CO₂ emissions revealed that it increased from 14% in 2006 to 33% in 2014, posing an additional annual fuel cost from 120€ in 2006 to 305€ in 2014, while a significant percentage of Euro 5 vehicles exceeded NO_x emission standards.     

Fuel cycle CO2-e targets of renewable hydrogen as a realistic transportation fuel in Australia

The claim of catastrophic man made climate change or global warming through anthropogenic CO₂ has presently focused the interest on the tailpipe emissions of CO₂ per km, with recent legislations obsessively targeting these emissions of CO₂ with defectively implemented procedures. With a variety of different propulsion solutions (electric, hybrid electric, hybrid mechanic, conventional) and different fuels (Diesel, Petrol, alternative fossil, alternative renewable) available in the near future, a more comprehensive approach based on the full fuel cycle, and eventually also the full life cycle of the vehicle appear to be necessary. The paper is a contribution to trigger further improvement to currently implemented procedures. The paper discusses the CO₂ emission data in the present form, some simple but effective measures to improve the accuracy of the data collection procedure, and propose results of fuel cycle CO₂-e analysis of vehicles with electric and thermal engines having different fuels. Vehicles with advanced internal combustion engines and power trains fuelled with Diesel may reach CO₂-e values of 100 g/km in Australia. Use of bio-ethanol in these vehicles may deliver in Australia a significant reduction of CO₂-e emissions to values below 36 g/km. Emission factors for Victoria are presently 1.23 kg CO₂-e/kWh for the purchased electricity and vehicles powered by electric motors will need a significant reduction of this indirect CO2-e emission to become competitive. Values below 0.5 kg CO₂-e/kWh are needed to make electric cars competitive with Diesel cars while values below 0.1 kg CO₂-e/kWh are needed to make electric cars competitive with bio-ethanol cars. Compared with all these alternatives, renewable hydrogen may possibly compete with Diesel when produced with renewable energy sources and made available at the pump for less than 0.1 kg CO₂-e/MJ of fuel energy, and with bio-ethanol if produced and distributed at a cost below 0.02 kg CO₂-e/MJ of fuel energy.     

Reducing CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions of cars in the EU: analyzing the underlying mechanisms of standards,registration taxes and fuel taxes

Road transport, especially passenger car transport, is one of the largest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. The major elements of the strategy of the European Union (EU) in order to reduce car emissions—such as CO₂ emission regulations from new passenger cars, vehicle-related fiscal measures and fuel economy labelling—have not resulted in significant reductions of greenhouse gas emissions over the last two decades. We focus in this paper on the theoretical understanding of how different policy instruments affect the decisions of (rational) consumers with an emphasis on registration taxes. Our major conclusions are as follows: (i) Theoretical analyses of the effects of taxes and standards in car transport are already very informative for policy design, even before quantitative assessments with observed data are available; (ii) CO₂ emission standards will not deliver the theoretically possible CO₂ reduction due to the rebound effect, and they are questionable for regulating the average car as applied in the context of EU to car manufacturers; (iii) the rebound effect of standards depends on the service price elasticity, which plays also a crucial role how fuel taxes affect demand; the magnitude of the service price elasticity determines which of these instruments is more effective with respect to energy conservation; (iv) combining fuel taxes and standards may allow for a win-win situation for the environment and car drivers but not for the current kind of EU regulation; and (v) a registration tax is equivalent to a standard binding consumers’ decisions (this does not apply to the current EU regulation), in particular, both lead to demand rebounds.     

Cost and CO2 aspects of future vehicle options in Europe under new energy policy scenarios

New electrified vehicle concepts are about to enter the market in Europe. The expected gains in environmental performance for these new vehicle types are associated with higher technology costs. In parallel, the fuel efficiency of internal combustion engine vehicles and hybrids is continuously improved, which in turn advances their environmental performance but also leads to additional technology costs versus today’s vehicles. The present study compares the well-to-wheel CO₂ emissions, costs and CO₂ abatement costs of generic European cars, including a gasoline vehicle, diesel vehicle, gasoline hybrid, diesel hybrid, plug in hybrid and battery electric vehicle. The predictive comparison is done for the snapshots 2010, 2020 and 2030 under a new energy policy scenario for Europe. The results of the study show clearly that the electrification of vehicles offer significant possibilities to reduce specific CO₂ emissions in road transport, when supported by adequate policies to decarbonise the electricity generation. Additional technology costs for electrified vehicle types are an issue in the beginning, but can go down to enable payback periods of less than 5 years and very competitive CO₂ abatement costs, provided that market barriers can be overcome through targeted policy support that mainly addresses their initial cost penalty.     

Inserting renewable fuels and technologies for transport in Mexico City Metropolitan Area

This article describes three future scenarios for the potential reduction of CO₂ emissions and associated costs when biogenic ethanol blends and oxygenates are substituted for gasoline, and hybrid, flex fuel and fuel cell technologies are introduced in passenger automobiles (including pickups and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs)) in the densely populated Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA), analyzed up to the year 2030. A reference (REF) scenario is constructed in which most automobiles are driven by internal combustion engines (ICE) fuelled by gasoline. In the first alternative scenario (ALT1), hybrid electric-ICE gasoline-fuelled cars are introduced in 2006. In the same year, ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE) is introduced as a replacement for methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) oxygenate for gasoline. In the second alternative scenario (ALT2), in addition to the changes introduced in ALT1, flex fuel ICE technology fuelled by E85 is introduced in 2008 and electric motor vehicles driven by direct ethanol fuel cells (DEFC) fuelled by E100 in 2013. A comparison between the reference and alternate scenarios shows that while the total number of vehicles is the same in each scenario, energy consumption decreases by 9% (ALT1) and 17% (ALT2), the total non-biogenic CO₂ emissions drop by 15% (ALT1) and 34% (ALT2), CO₂ mitigation cost is 140.14 $US1997/ton CO₂ (ALT2), and ALT1 has savings and is considered a “no regrets” scenario.