浅谈地震预报与地震预警的发展状况

地震灾害的不可预知性、突发性及其引发一系列次生灾害等特性,不仅造成人道灾难,摧毁人类赖以生存的基础设施、破坏自然生态环境和核设施并引发世界性核恐慌事件等,本文回顾了地震预报历史沿革认为地震预报的难度比较大．但成功地预报地震不是不可能的。地震预警系统已被实践证明是一套有效的避震措施,但地震预警并不能代替地震预报。     

浅谈推进地震监测预报体系的建设

在我国,地震灾害时常发生,经济遭受很大损失,因此,要建立好健全的地震监测预报工作,最大限度的减轻地震灾害损失,以保障国家社会健康和可持续的发展。本文从不同的方面入手,探讨如何推进地震监测预报体系建设的有关问题。     

强震成功预报的曙光

20世纪50年代以来,我国30多次成功预报了中、强地震的发生;近加年来国外有些地震学家对几次强震预测失败感到失望,逐渐将地震研究的主攻方向转变为对建筑物抗震能力的鉴定、加强建筑物抗震措施和建立现代数字台网,以便迅速准确确定强震的发生地点,可以即刻到现场救援;国内地震界部分地震学家受他们的悲观情绪的影响,也放弃了对强震预报的努力.所幸的是部分专业和业余地震学家仍在强震预报领域做出了不懈的努力,取得了可喜的成绩.     

强化地震群测群防工作切实减轻地震灾害损失

地震群测群防在判断临震阶段有着特殊效能，能在某种程度上起到进一步缩小预报地区范围和预报时间范围的作用。咸阳市基本建成了“横向到边、纵向到底、相互贯通”的“三网一员”群测群网络体系，但仍存在发展不平衡、管理制度不健全、人员经费缺乏保障等问题，制约了咸阳市市群测群防工作的开展。面对群测群防工作遇到的一系列问题，探索解决的办法、采取有效的措施，切实减轻地震灾害损失，是我们讨论的主问题。     

破坏性地震是可以预测的——孕震物理模型及临震信号

讨论地震前兆有它自已的孕震物理模型,地震孕育全过程分为加载、相持、卸载、短临和临震５个阶段;多次震例证明,破坏性地震的孕震物理模型是会重复和再现的;提出了追踪地震前兆信息,循序渐进预报地震的分析方法,对地震预报的阶段性进行了实用性的划分,有希望实现对破坏性地震的预报。     

采煤工作面顶板来压预测预报

基本顶的初次来压和周期来压是采煤工作面的典型矿山压力显现现象。初次来压时,基本顶跨距较大,垮落影响的范围广,工作面可能发生事故。本文主要阐述了采煤工作面基本顶来压的预报机理、基本顶来压预报、采煤工作面大面积冒顶事故的预报等问题。     

论煤矿冲击地压的分析与防治

本文重点阐述冲击地压发生的机理、表现特征及其分类，并根据其发生发展的过程，进行监测预报，超前防控，有的放矢的开展防冲工作，防范冲击地压事故发生。     

长白山洞体形变与火山地震前兆反应的初步研究

依据长白山天池火山监测站洞体形变观测资料，对天池火山区发生的火山地震和震群进行了地震前兆和同震反应研究。发现洞体形变资料对火山区地震和震群的形变前兆反应主要是以应变为主，并且异常形态以固体潮畸变和抖动为主。同震反应比较明显，主要以同震阶跃为主。在未来可能发生的火山地震和火山喷发事件中，形变观测将为预报和预测工作提供有力依据。     

《矿山工程地质学》出版

教授级高级工程师李前和张志呈教授主编的《矿山工程地质学》,由四川科学技术出版社2008年10月出版,全书80万字。该书较详细介绍了地应力在矿山工程的应用和地应力在天然地震监测和预报中的作用,总结了岩体不稳定以及地下采矿地面岩移的一般规律,地下开采的地压活动,冲击地压发生机理和预测、预报、解危和预防措施;     

ASTM华盛顿办事处重要活动概览

<正> ASTM国际标准组织在华盛顿设有办事处,用以推进ASTM使命的执行及战略目标的实现。目前,该办事处的众多工作涉及到联邦立法和法规、国际贸易问题以及行业和贸易协会的拓展。本文简单介绍ASTM中国会员感兴趣的该办事处近期的一些重要工作。抵御灾难自然灾害,例如地震,无论在世界哪个角落发生,都是致命的打击。2010年2月27日在智利发生的8.8级地震;2010年1月12日在海地发生的7.0级     

The success of the prediction of Haicheng earthquake and the negligence of the Tangshan earthquake

The success of the prediction of Haicheng earthquake and the failure of the prediction of Tangshan earthquake were both well known in the world. What happened, why such a strong earthquake as occurred in Haicheng had been predicted successfully and with a small loss of lives and property? Why a successively strong earthquake about a year later in a region not so further was failure in the imminent stage of prediction and there were so many fatalities and a great degree of property? The author addresses these points based on these true experiences including the first hand experiences leading up to, during, and following these two earthquarter. In addition, he also introduced some seimic phenomena which he had seen after Chichi earthquake in Taiwan.     

Radon in earthquake prediction research

The observation of anomalies in the radon concentration in soil gas and ground water before earthquakes initiated systematic investigations on earthquake precursor phenomena. The question what is needed for a meaningful earthquake prediction as well as what types of precursory effects can be expected is shortly discussed. The basic ideas of the dilatancy theory are presented which in principle can explain the occurrence of earthquake forerunners. The reasons for radon anomalies in soil gas and in ground water are clarified and a possible classification of radon anomalies is given.     

基于支持向量机的地震预警震级快速估算研究

以更准确的估算地震预警(earthquake early warning,EEW)震级为目标,利用P波触发后3 s内的日本K-net强震数据,选取幅值参数、周期参数、能量参数、衍生参数这4大类共12个P波特征参数作为输入,构建基于支持向量机震级预测模型(support vector machine for earthquake magnitude estimation,SVM-M)。结果表明,比较传统的震级估算“τc方法”与“P d方法”,建立的SVM-M模型震级预测误差明显减小且不受震中距变化的影响,小震高估问题得到明显改善。2016年日本熊本地震主震(M j7.3)与2008年中国汶川地震主震(M s8.0)的震例分析结果表明,3 s时间窗不能匹配震源破裂全过程而出现了一定程度的震级低估,但仍可在P波触发后短时间窗内明确是大地震事件。建立的SVM-M模型可应用于地震预警震级快速估算。     

Physical measurements in earthquake prediction

Earthquake forecasting is considered from the metrological viewpoint. Promising methods employed in seismic tomography: teleseismic, transmission, microseismic emission, and vibrational seismic transmission techniques. The features are pointed out in the metrological support to geophysical measurements in earthquake forecasting. A brief classification is given of physical measurement methods used in forecasting. Translated from Izmeritel'naya Tekhnika, No. 6, pp. 3–7, June, 1997.     

基于支持向量机的现地地震预警地震动峰值预测

以0.1-10 Hz带通滤波后三分向矢量合成地震动峰值PGA 与PGV 为预测目标参数,利用日本K-net 强震台网P波触发后3 s数据,基于人工智能中的经典机器学习方法-支持向量机,选取加速度幅值Pa、速度幅值Pv、位移幅值Pd、傅里叶谱幅值AMmax、速度平方积分IV2、破坏烈度DI、累积绝对速度CAV、阿里亚斯烈...     

用微地震监测结果预报水库、矿山有害地震

论述了微地震监测结果在水库、矿山有害地震预报中的应用。笔者认为,把监测域扩大至微地震范围,可以扩大数据量,增大预报可靠性。实际微地震监测结果支持预报扩大,在技术发展的基础上,用以震报震理论,可以在水库、矿山有害地震预报上取得突破。     

Remote monitoring of the earthquake cycle using satellite radar interferometry

The earthquake cycle is poorly understood. Earthquakes continue to occur on previously unrecognized faults. Earthquake prediction seems impossible. These remain the facts despite nearly 100 years of intensive study since the earthquake cycle was first conceptualized. Using data acquired from satellites in orbit 800 km above the Earth, a new technique, radar interferometry (InSAR), has the potential to solve these problems. For the first time, detailed maps of the warping of the Earth's surface during the earthquake cycle can be obtained with a spatial resolution of a few tens of metres and a precision of a few millimetres. InSAR does not need equipment on the ground or expensive field campaigns, so it can gather crucial data on earthquakes and the seismic cycle from some of the remotest areas of the planet. In this article, I review some of the remarkable observations of the earthquake cycle already made using radar interferometry and speculate on breakthroughs that are tantalizingly close.     

An alternative approach to the ground motion prediction problem by a non-parametric adaptive regression method

Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) are empirical relationships which are used for determining the peak ground response at a particular distance from an earthquake source. They relate the peak ground responses as a function of earthquake source type, distance from the source, local site conditions where the data are recorded and finally the depth and magnitude of the earthquake. In this article, a new prediction algorithm, called Conic Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (CMARS), is employed on an available dataset for deriving a new GMPE. CMARS is based on a special continuous optimization technique, conic quadratic programming. These convex optimization problems are very well-structured, resembling linear programs and, hence, permitting the use of interior point methods. The CMARS method is performed on the strong ground motion database of Turkey. Results are compared with three other GMPEs. CMARS is found to be effective for ground motion prediction purposes.     

A new numerical algorithm for sub‐optimal control of earthquake excited linear structures

Exact optimal classical closed–open‐loop control is not achievable for the buildings under seismic excitations since it requires the whole knowledge of earthquake in the control interval. In this study, a new numerical algorithm for the sub‐optimal solution of the optimal closed–open‐loop control is proposed based on the prediction of near‐future earthquake excitation using the Taylor series method and the Kalman filtering technique. It is shown numerically that how the solution is related to the predicted earthquake acceleration values. Simulation results show that the proposed numerical algorithm are better than the closed‐loop control and the instantaneous optimal control and proposed numerical solution will approach the exact optimal solution if the more distant future values of the earthquake excitation can be predicted more precisely. Effectiveness of the Kalman filtering technique is also confirmed by comparing the predicted and the observed time history of NS component of the 1940 El Centro earthquake. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

浅谈抗震构造在结构设计中的重要性

本文根据唐山地震、汶川地震及玉树地震的震害分析,结合《建筑抗震设计规范》（GB50011-2010）,提出抗震设计时应注意的几点看法。希望引起设计、施工、监理及开发商等建筑界同仁对抗震构造的高度重视,把抗震构造实实在在地运用到工程建设的各个环节。