模糊认知图在股票市场预测中的应用研究

复杂系统中存在着大量的过程依赖、自组织,并且一直是进化的,用传统的方法对其建模十分困难。模糊认知图作为一种模糊逻辑和神经网络相结合的产物,为复杂系统建模提供了一种有效工具。文中根据模糊认知图的特点,提出了用遗传学习算法建立系统的模糊认知图方法,为复杂系统分析及预测提供了一种解决方案。最后,以股票市场的数据为例进行了分析和预测模拟,结果表明,该方法是有效的。     

Fuzzy cognitive map architectures for medical decision support systems

Medical decision support systems can provide assistance in crucial clinical judgments, particularly for inexperienced medical professionals. Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) is a soft computing technique for modeling complex systems, which follows an approach similar to human reasoning and the human decision-making process. FCMs can successfully represent knowledge and human experience, introducing concepts to represent the essential elements and the cause and effect relationships among the concepts to model the behavior of any system. Medical decision systems are complex systems that can be decomposed to non-related and related subsystems and elements, where many factors have to be taken into consideration that may be complementary, contradictory, and competitive; these factors influence each other and determine the overall clinical decision with a different degree. Thus, FCMs are suitable for medical decision support systems and appropriate FCM architectures are proposed and developed as well as the corresponding examples from two medical disciplines, i.e. speech and language pathology and obstetrics, are described.     

一种进化模糊逻辑控制器的新方法

结合进化学习分类器的密歇根和匹兹堡方法的优点,首次将对单条控制规则的评价引入了模糊逻辑控制器（ＦＬＣ）的进化过程中,解决了匹兹堡类型的学习分类器系统“强化信息的带宽窄”的问题,实现了ＦＬＣ在控制器级和规则级的同时进化,控制器的控制规则数目也可以自由变化,实验结果表明新方法有较高的效率,优化的模糊控制器的结构简单,性能良好。     

A hybrid coevolutionary algorithm for designing fuzzy classifiers

Rule learning is one of the most common tasks in knowledge discovery. In this paper, we investigate the induction of fuzzy classification rules for data mining purposes, and propose a hybrid genetic algorithm for learning approximate fuzzy rules. A novel niching method is employed to promote coevolution within the population, which enables the algorithm to discover multiple rules by means of a coevolutionary scheme in a single run. In order to improve the quality of the learned rules, a local search method was devised to perform fine-tuning on the offspring generated by genetic operators in each generation. After the GA terminates, a fuzzy classifier is built by extracting a rule set from the final population. The proposed algorithm was tested on datasets from the UCI repository, and the experimental results verify its validity in learning rule sets and comparative advantage over conventional methods.     

Improving fuzzy cognitive maps learning through memetic particle swarm optimization

Fuzzy cognitive maps constitute a neuro-fuzzy modeling methodology that can simulate complex systems accurately. Although their configuration is defined by experts, learning schemes based on evolutionary and swarm intelligence algorithms have been employed for improving their efficiency and effectiveness. This paper comprises an extensive study of the recently proposed swarm intelligence memetic algorithm that combines particle swarm optimization with both deterministic and stochastic local search schemes, for fuzzy cognitive maps learning tasks. Also, a new technique for the adaptation of the memetic schemes, with respect to the available number of function evaluations per application of the local search, is proposed. The memetic learning schemes are applied on four real-life problems and compared with established learning methods based on the standard particle swarm optimization, differential evolution, and genetic algorithms, justifying their superiority.     

The facility layout problem approached using a fuzzy model and a genetic search

The problem of facility layout design is discussed, taking into account the uncertainty of production scenarios and the finite production capacity of the departments. The uncertain production demand is modelled by a fuzzy number, and constrained arithmetic operators are used in order to calculate the fuzzy material handling costs. By using a ranking criterion, the layout that represents the minimum fuzzy cost is selected. A flexible bay structure is adopted as a physical model of the system while an effective genetic algorithm is implemented to search for a near optimal solution in a fuzzy contest. Constraints on the aspect ratio of the departments are taken into account using a penalty function introduced into the fitness function of the genetic algorithm. The efficiency of the genetic algorithm proposed is tested in a deterministic context and the possibility of applying the fuzzy approach to a medium-large layout problem is explored.This revised version was published in June 2005 with corrected page numbers.     

Ranking fuzzy cognitive map based scenarios with TOPSIS

Scenarios describe events and situations that would occurred in the future real-world. Policy makers use scenario methods as a tool to build landscapes of possible futures at a national level. Based on these future visions, policy and decision-makers are able to explore different courses of action. In recent years, the number of potential scenario methods and applications is increasing. It is because academics and practitioners are increasing their interest about it. In spite of the success of scenario methods’ support, scenario-based decision making still is not a fully structured process.The proposed methodology aims to bring methodological support to scenario-based decision making in scenario analysis. The originality of the proposed approach with respect to other ones is that it aims to use the scenarios’ assessment and ranking as a whole. Traditional approaches consider the future impact of each present entity in isolation. This assumption is a simplification of a more complex reality, in which different entities interact with each other. The model that the authors propose allows decision and policy makers to measure the impact of a entity interactions. To reach this aim, the proposal combine Delphi method, soft computing (fuzzy cognitive maps) and multicriteria (TOPSIS) techniques. In addition, a numerical example is developed for illustrating the proposal.     

A fuzzy cognitive map approach for effect-based operations: An illustrative case

This paper proposes the use of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) as a technique for supporting the decision-making process in effect-based planning. The goal is to determine alternative courses of action to realize the aims of an operation, and choose the best option among them. With adequate consideration of the problem features and the constraints governing the method used, an FCM is developed to model effect-based operations (EBOs). In this study, certain features that do not exist in the classical FCM method were added to our FCM concept value calculation algorithm; these include influence possibility, influence duration, dynamic influence value-changing, and influence permanence. The model developed was applied to an illustrative scenario involving military planning, and we comment on the usefulness of the proposed methodology.     

多模态函数优化的协同多群体遗传算法

讨论了多模态函数优化的遗传算法(GA)求解方法.分析了传统的基于排挤选择模型和基于适应值共享的GA方法的特点和不足,应用模式理论研究了GA群体进化行为.提出了宏观小生境思想和协同多群体GA的基本框架和详细算法流程,并给出了一种自动小生境半径估计方法.采用典型函数进行了实例计算,结果表明了协同多群体GA的有效性.     

Soft computing for crisis management and political decision making: the use of genetically evolved fuzzy cognitive maps

This paper examines the use of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) as a technique for modeling political and strategic issues situations and supporting the decision-making process in view of an imminent crisis. Its object domain is soft computing using as its basic elements different methods from the areas of fuzzy logic, cognitive maps, neural networks and genetic algorithms. FCMs, more specifically, use notions borrowed from artificial intelligence and combine characteristics of both fuzzy logic and neural networks, in the form of dynamic models that describe a given political setting. The present work proposes the use of the genetically evolved certainty neuron fuzzy cognitive map (GECNFCM) as an extension of certainty neuron fuzzy cognitive maps (CNFCMs) aiming at overcoming the main weaknesses of the latter, namely the recalculation of the weights corresponding to each concept every time a new strategy is adopted. This novel technique combines CNFCMs with genetic algorithms (GAs), the advantage of which lies with their ability to offer the optimal solution without a problem-solving strategy, once the requirements are defined. Using a multiple scenario analysis we demonstrate the value of such a hybrid technique in the context of a model that reflects the political and strategic complexity of the Cyprus issue, as well as the uncertainties involved in it. The issue has been treated on a purely technical level, with distances carefully kept concerning all sides involved in it.     

Application of probabilistic and fuzzy cognitive approaches in semantic web framework for medical decision support

This study aimed to focus on medical knowledge representation and reasoning using the probabilistic and fuzzy influence processes, implemented in the semantic web, for decision support tasks. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) and fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs), as dynamic influence graphs, were applied to handle the task of medical knowledge formalization for decision support. In order to perform reasoning on these knowledge models, a general purpose reasoning engine, EYE, with the necessary plug-ins was developed in the semantic web. The two formal approaches constitute the proposed decision support system (DSS) aiming to recognize the appropriate guidelines of a medical problem, and to propose easily understandable course of actions to guide the practitioners. The urinary tract infection (UTI) problem was selected as the proof-of-concept example to examine the proposed formalization techniques implemented in the semantic web. The medical guidelines for UTI treatment were formalized into BBN and FCM knowledge models. To assess the formal models’ performance, 55 patient cases were extracted from a database and analyzed. The results showed that the suggested approaches formalized medical knowledge efficiently in the semantic web, and gave a front-end decision on antibiotics’ suggestion for UTI.     

大模型驱动多智能体的军事需求生成框架

联合作战军事需求生成涉及的参与人员多、工作量庞大,生成过程大多依赖个体经验与多来源文档,存在需求生成效率较低等问题,难以有效支撑联合作战体系设计。随着大模型技术的发展,大模型驱动的智能体在诸多领域展现出卓越的性能,多智能体系统通过分布式决策实现群体智能,能够高效处理复杂任务。针对军事需求生成过程中存在的效率低下的问题,提出大模型驱动多智能体的军事需求生成框架。该框架整合了多模态信息获取智能体、军事专家智能体、会议主持人等要素。多模态信息获取智能体集成多模态信息处理工具,能够快速获取军事需求,并与用户进行问答交互;军事专家智能体以自然语言对话的形式模拟人类专家讨论生成需求的场景,大模型驱动军事专家智能体理解环境,并能自主调用开源论文库、搜索引擎等工具以支持对话;会议主持人接收人类用户的指令,利用大模型细化指令内容,生成对话提示词和问题背景描述。以俄乌冲突为实验背景,对相关多模态信息进行军事需求生成。实验结果表明,当多模态信息量在大模型最大处理容量以内时,该框架显著降低了军事需求生成的时间消耗,视频资源节省时间占比达到80%～85%,音频资源节省时间占比为90%～95%。     

Fuzzy control of an exothermic chemical reaction using genetic algorithms

Establishing suitable control of complex chemical reactions, a requirement in a number of industries, poses a difficult problem because of nonlinearities and frequently changing process dynamics. Researchers at the U.S. Bureau of Mines have developed a technique for producing adaptive fuzzy logic controllers (FLCs) that are capable of effectively managing such complex chemical systems. In this technique, a genetic algorithm (GA) is used to alter the membership functions employed by a conventional FLC; an approach that is contrary to the tactic generally used to provide FLCs with adaptive capabilities in which the rule set is altered. GAs are search algorithms based on the mechanics of natural genetics that are able to rapidly locate near-optimum solutions to difficult problems. The Bureau-developed technique is used to produce an adaptive GA-FLC for a particular system in which an exothermic chemical reaction is conducted. Specifically, formaldehyde is reacted with ammonia in a continuous stirred tank reactor to produce hexamine and water. Results indicate that FLCs augmented with GAs offer a powerful alternative to conventional process-control techniques in the nonlinear, rapidly changing chemical systems commonly found in industry.     

Real-coded genetic algorithm with variable rates of cross-over and mutation: a basis of global optimization for multi-modal functions via interval technique

A hybrid method consisting of a real-coded genetic algorithm (RCGA) and an interval technique is proposed for optimizing bound constrained non-linear multi-modal functions. This method has two different phases. In phase I, the search space is divided into several subregions and the simple genetic algorithm (SGA) is applied to each subregion to find the one(s) containing the best value of the objective function. In phase II, the selected subregion is divided into two equal halves and the advanced GA, i.e. the RCGA, is applied in each half to reject the subregion where the global solution does not exist. This process is repeated until the interval width of each variable is less than a pre-assigned very small positive number. In the RCGA, we consider rank-based selection, multi-parent whole arithmetical cross-over, and non-uniform mutation depending on the age of the population. However, the cross-over and mutation rates are assumed as variables. Initially, these rates are high and then decrease from generation to generation. Finally, the proposed hybrid method is applied to several standard test functions used in the literature; the results obtained are encouraging. Sensitivity analyses are shown graphically with respect to different parameters on the lower bound of the interval valued objective function of two different problems.     

An Adaptive Clustering Protocol Using Niching Particle Swarm Optimization for Wireless Sensor Networks

Clustering is an hierarchical topology control method, and it is also an energy‐saving and energy efficient technique that extends the sensor network's lifetime. In this paper, we propose and analyze an adaptive clustering protocol using niching particle swarm optimization (ACP‐NPSO), a protocol architecture that uses NPSO to cluster the wireless sensor networks adaptively and efficiently, thus saving energy, balancing energy consumption and enhancing the system's robustness. The simulation results indicate that our proposed protocol ACP‐NPSO can enhance system lifespan, accelerate the convergence speed, and deliver more data by distributing energy dissipation evenly in the networks.     

新颖的模糊认知图学习方法解决工业控制问题

介绍的是基于量子粒子群算法模糊认知图的学习方法。其主要的思路是更新模糊认知图中能够使之趋向所要求的稳定状态的非零权值。将所研究的方法运用到工业控制问题,具有很大的现实意义。实验的结果表明,该方法是有效的,并优于传统的粒子群算法。     

引入RNA计算的遗传模糊C均值聚类算法

模糊C均值算法（FCM）在聚类分析中是目前比较流行和应用比较广泛的一种算法。但它存在两个弱点：一是对初始化非常敏感,容易陷入局部极值点;二是处理大数据集时耗时太长。基于RNA的分子计算是近年来新兴的一种智能优化计算方法。提出了基于RNA计算的遗传模糊聚类算法（RNAGAFCM）,来提高收敛速度和全局寻优能力。仿真实验表明新算法比现有的遗传模糊聚类算法减少了迭代次数,提高了收敛速度。     

紧致遗传算法的进化机制分析

为了分析紧致遗传算法的进化机制, 首先给出了用于刻划进化概率向量的有关概念; 其次研究了增加染色体有效进化的方法, 提出了基于进化强度系数的增强紧致遗传算法; 同时为进一步研究基于多变量的紧致遗传算法提供了框架.