溪洛渡-向家坝-三峡梯级水库联合蓄水方案与多目标决策研究

为协调好梯级水库联合蓄水调度过程中防洪、发电、蓄水和航运等目标之间的矛盾,实现各水库蓄水时机与蓄水进程的协同优化,以溪洛渡-向家坝-三峡梯级水库为例,推求了可权衡防洪与兴利之间矛盾的梯级水库联合蓄水方案,主要研究内容主要包括以下3个部分:(1)风险分析,推求了汛末各分期内坝前最高安全水位约束和联合蓄水方案的防洪风险;(2)兴利效益分析,分析了联合蓄水方案的发电和蓄水等兴利效益;(3)多目标决策,评价了联合蓄水方案的防洪风险、发电和蓄水效益,得出了最优非劣质蓄水方案。研究结果表明:溪洛渡-向家坝-三峡梯级水库的较优联合蓄水方案,分别为9月5日起蓄的同步起蓄方案和9月1日-9月5日-9月10日起蓄的异步起蓄方案,较原设计蓄水方案,年均发电量可分别增加23.76和20.43亿k W·h,增幅分别为3.25%和2.78%;蓄水率可由96.73%分别提高至97.51%和97.57%,两者均可在不降低原防洪标准的前提下,提高梯级水库的综合效益,前者的发电效益较优,而后者的蓄水效益较优。     

Optimal early refill rules for Danjiangkou Reservoir

Water levels in reservoirs are generally not allowed to exceed the flood-limited water level during the flood season, which means that huge amounts of water spill in order to provide adequate storage for flood prevention and that it is difficult to fill the reservoir fully at the end of year. Early reservoir refill is an effective method for addressing the contradiction between the needs of flood control and of comprehensive utilization. This study selected the Danjiangkou Reservoir, which is the water source for the middle route of the South-North Water Diversion Project(SNWDP) in China, as a case study, and analyzed the necessity and operational feasibility of early reservoir refill. An early reservoir refill model is proposed based on the maximum average storage ratio, optimized by the progressive optimality algorithm, and the optimal scheduling schemes were obtained. Results show that the best time of refill operation for the Danjiangkou Reservoir is September 15, and the upper limit water level during September is 166 m. The proposed early refill scheme, in stages, can increase the annual average storage ratio from 77.51% to 81.99%, and decrease spilled water from 2.439 × 109 m3 to 1.692 × 109 m3, in comparison to the original design scheme. The suggested early reservoir refill scheme can be easily operated with significant comprehensive benefits, which may provide a good reference for scheduling decision-making.     

Deriving Optimal Refill Rules for Multi-Purpose Reservoir Operation

This paper focuses on deriving optimal refill rules for a multi-purpose reservoir, and aims to maximize utilization benefits under the condition of flood control safety. The entire flood season is divided into multiple sub-seasons (i.e. pre-flood season, main-flood season and post-flood season). By advancing the start of the refill period to the beginning of the post-flood season, seasonal design flows during the new refill period are estimated. A multi-objective refill operation model is proposed by combining flood control and conservation together. The simulation–optimization-test framework and hybrid multi-objective genetic algorithms are developed and used to optimize the rule curves. China’s Three Gorges Reservoir is selected as a case study and the application results show that the proposed model can increase the hydropower generation by 17.4%, decrease spilled water by 43.9%, and improve the refill probability greatly without decreasing the flood control standard and navigation probability during the refill period.     

水电站水库群防洪补偿联合调度模型研究及应用

针对具有下游防洪任务的水电站水库群,提出基于预报及库容补偿的水库群防洪补偿联合调度逐次渐进协调模型,推求水库汛期防洪库容动态控制方案。该模型运用了大系统分解协调理论及贝尔曼的逐步逼近思想,以各水库为独立的子系统建立3层递阶结构,针对库间水力、电力联系及防洪库容限制等复杂的约束条件进行不同层次的协调。模型经过多次迭代计算,得到最佳的水库群防洪库容协调方案。该模型应用于清江流域梯级水库,计算结果表明,在不降低水库及梯级原有的防洪标准前提下,能有效利用上游水布垭水库的防洪库容,分担隔河岩水库部分防洪任务,并显著提高梯级水库发电量。     

三峡水库运行期设计洪水及汛控水位初探

考虑长江上游水库群调蓄对三峡水库设计洪水的影响,采用最可能组成法和典型年法推求干支流控制站洪水的地区组成,构建多输入单输出(MISO)系统模型模拟向家坝至三峡水库未控区间的洪水过程,研究探讨三峡水库运行期设计洪水及汛期防洪控制水位(汛控水位)。结果表明:长江上游干支流梯级水库的调蓄作用对三峡水库设计洪水影响显著;三峡运行期千年一遇设计洪峰流量为81 136 m3/s,3、7、15和30 d洪量分别为188.2、386.3、727.4和1320.9亿m3,相比建设期设计值分别削减了18.2%、23.8%、20.6%、20.2%和16.9%;在不降低防洪标准的前提下,三峡水库运行期汛控水位(155 m)比建设期汛限水位(145 m)抬高了10 m,这不仅有利于库区航运、维护库岸稳定、保护消落区生态环境,还可增发电量、减少蓄水期对洞庭湖和鄱阳湖的影响,经济社会和生态环境效益巨大。     

漫坝风险分析在水库运行管理中的应用

本文运用漫坝风险分析理论,综合考虑影响漫坝的洪水、风浪、库容、泄水能力四方面的不确定性,建立了东武仕水库大坝对抗洪水系列与风浪系列联合作用的漫坝风险模型,计算了水库在现行的防洪标准及调度方案下的大坝漫坝风险及安全可靠度,从而对水库漫坝安全做出评价。此外,在保证东武仕水库大坝漫坝安全可靠度高达99．999％以上的基础上,结合下游河道的泄洪能力、淹没范围等具体情况,通过计算分析,建议将水库的汛限水位提高1．5m,可使水库多蓄水1470万m^3,取得直接经济效益400万元。     

Ant Colony Optimization for Multi-Purpose Reservoir Operation

In this paper a metaheuristic technique called Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) is proposed to derive operating policies for a multi-purpose reservoir system. Most of the real world problems often involve non-linear optimization in their solution with high dimensionality and large number of equality and inequality constraints. Often the conventional techniques fail to yield global optimal solutions. The recently proposed evolutionary algorithms are also facing problems, while solving large-scale problems. In this study, it is intended to test the usefulness of ACO in solving such type of problems. To formulate the ACO model for reservoir operation, the problem is approached by considering a finite time series of inflows, classifying the reservoir volume into several class intervals, and determining the reservoir release for each period with respect to a predefined optimality criterion. The ACO technique is applied to a case study of Hirakud reservoir, which is a multi-purpose reservoir system located in India. The multiple objectives comprise of minimizing flood risks, minimizing irrigation deficits and maximizing hydropower production in that order of priority. The developed model is applied for monthly operation, and consists of two models viz., for short-time horizon operation and for long-time horizon operation. To evaluate the performance of ACO, the developed models are also solved using real coded Genetic Algorithm (GA). The results of the two models indicate that ACO model performs better, in terms of higher annual power production, while satisfying irrigation demands and flood control restrictions, compared to those obtained by GA. Finally it is found that ACO model outperforms GA model, especially in the case of long-time horizon reservoir operation.     

水电站水库防洪优化调度的模型与方法

水库防洪调度是一种确保水库及下游安全的控制运行方法，通过建立水电站水库优化调度模型，利用动态规划方法，可以计算单一水库或者梯级水电站群的最优调度方案，从而确保水库工程安全，有效利用防洪库容拦蓄洪水，削减洪峰，减免洪水灾害，充分发挥水库的综合效益。通过建立水库防洪调度的数学模型，利用动态规划方法对单一水电站水库的防洪调度进行了研究。     

水库调度性能风险评价方法研究

运用水库常规调度和优化调度模型,分别确定水库调度策略,从水电站发电和下游生态需水的可靠性、可恢复性、脆弱性和防洪调度权转移风险出发,建立基于综合利用水库调度模型的调度性能风险评价指标体系。以新安江水库调度为例,对1960—2009年旬径流系列的常规与优化调度结果进行风险评价,结果表明:水库优化调度方法比常规调度方法的发电效益、可靠性、可恢复性更高,但其发电脆弱性和防洪调度权转移风险更高。水库调度性能指标全面地评价了不同调度方法对水库调度结果的影响,该研究为综合利用水库在防洪安全、供水安全、生态与环境安全等方面的决策管理提供了一种新的评价思路。     

三峡水库提前蓄水的防洪风险与效益分析

在三峡水库现有优化调度和试验性蓄水方案的基础上,拟定了6组提前蓄水方案,开展提前蓄水的防洪风险和效益分析计算。选择1952和1964年为典型年,分别推求分期设计洪水过程线。研究结果表明：三峡水库9月1日从145 m开始起蓄,9月30日均匀蓄至160.0m,其1 000年一遇分期设计洪水对应的风险率和风险损失率分别为0.39%和1.47%,防洪风险仍在可控范围内;与原方案相比,多年平均可增加发电量24.65亿kWh,减少弃水量25.32亿m ³,汛后蓄满率和平均蓄水位分别提高到95.35%和174.8m。     

卡伦水库洪水风险调度效益浅析

本文主要从选择卡伦水库实行洪水风险调度的依据、水库洪水控制标准、调度原则及效益等方面论述卡伦水库实行洪水风险调度的重大意义。特别强调在水库洪水调度过程中适度承担风险,必须确保工程安全运行、科学调度,加强管理,依法防洪,合理蓄水,要正确把握水库安全度汛与水资源合理利用的关系,正确处理防洪与兴利的关系,正确处理风险与效益的关系,充分发挥水库的综合效益。适度承担风险进行水库洪水调度,既充分利用雨洪资源,又尽最大可能变水害为水利,实现雨洪资源化,达到人、水与自然和谐共处,促进经济社会协调发展。     

Integrated Reservoir Management System for Adaptation to Climate Change: The Nakdong River Basin in Korea

This study begins with the premise that current reservoir management systems do not take into account the potential effects of climate change on optimal performance. This study suggests an approach in which multi-purpose reservoirs can adapt to climate change using optimal rule curves developed by an integrated water resources management system. The system has three modules: the Weather Generator model, the Hydrological Model, and the Differential Evolution Optimization Model. Two general circulation models (GCMs) are selected as examples of both dry and wet conditions to generate future climate scenarios. This study is using the Nakdong River basin in Korea as a case study, where water supply is provided from the reservoir system. Three different climate change conditions (historic, wet and dry) are investigated through the compilation of six 60 years long scenarios. The optimal rule curves for three multi-purpose reservoirs in the basin are developed for each scenario. The results indicate that although the rule curve for large-size reservoir is less sensitive to climate change, medium or small-size reservoirs are very sensitive to those changes. We further conclude that the large reservoir should be used to release more water, while small or medium-size reservoirs should store inflow to mitigate severe drought damages in the basin.     

防洪调度图在二滩水库调度中的应用

二滩水库是以发电为主的大型水库,因设计时不承担下游的防洪任务,正常高水位以下未留防洪库容,水库在汛期要长期弃水运行,防洪调度比较被动。本文以二滩水库为例,根据不同入库流量编制出二滩水库防洪调度图,依据入库流量大小预留出相应的防洪库容,不但解决了防洪与发电之间的矛盾,使二滩水库获得可观的防洪库容和较大的防洪效益,而且为金沙江下游及长江干流的防洪削峰、错峰创造了条件,还可为汛末蓄水关闸时间的选择提供了可靠的依据。该防洪调度图也是汛期水库防洪、发电和水位控制的实时调度图,应用灵活主动,并可在其他以发电为主(或引水较有规律)的大型水库应用和推广。     

三峡及金沙江下游梯级水库群蓄水期联合调度策略

针对三峡及金沙江下游梯级水库群汛后竞争性蓄水矛盾,以溪洛渡、向家坝、三峡、葛洲坝梯级四库系统为研究对象,采用不同来水年型、蓄水时间和起调水位构建蓄水情景集;以蓄水期期望发电量最大为目标,建立蓄水期多目标联合随机优化调度模型,生成各蓄水情景下的最优蓄水方案;基于蓄满率、梯级期望弃水量、梯级平均期望出力对各方案进行评价,推荐丰水年溪洛渡、向家坝9月11日起蓄、三峡9月10日起蓄,平水年溪洛渡、向家坝9月11日起蓄、三峡9月1日起蓄,枯水年溪洛渡、向家坝9月1日起蓄、三峡8月21日起蓄。     

Flood risk assessment and coping capacity of floods in central Vietnam

In the perspective of improving and disseminating risk assessment methodologies and rise preparedness of people to flood hazard this paper presents flood hazard maps estimated in the Quang Ngai province, in central Vietnam, for different return periods in terms of depth, duration and velocity using the FLO-2D, hydrodynamic model with a 90 m × 90 m resolution grid. Then, based on the vulnerability functions determined from field surveys and the feedback to 400 questionnaires distributed to people regarding residential areas, paddy rice, road networks and the number of deaths and injuries, the total amount of tangible and intangible damage at each point in the study area is estimated and mapped, indicating risk levels and expected annual damage in case of flooding. The resulting damage functions are quite different from others available in the literature, as a result of the adaptive capacity and the resilience of the population to floods in the investigated area. Damage functions to buildings, agricultural areas, road infrastructures and people are normalised with respect to mean flooding depth and flooding hazard so that they can be generalized to areas with similar geographical conditions. In this way, a more comprehensive knowledge on the negative effects of floods is carried out, providing an important input to flood management plans in order to mitigate flood damage in tropical areas similar to the Quang Ngai province.     

丹江口水库汛期水位动态控制方案研究

丹江口水库加高完成后,为保障汉江中下游防洪安全和南水北调供水的顺利进行,防洪和蓄水的矛盾更加突出,根据目前的蓄水方案,蓄满率可能进一步降低。以62 a实测洪水资料为输入,对丹江口水库的运行方式进行了模拟调度和预泄能力分析,并根据汉江流域洪水特性,提出了不同时期丹江口水库的运行水位动态控制方案。根据提出的运行方案,丹江口水库在保证各项设计功能正常发挥的前提下,可进一步挖掘水库的防洪效益,并做到风险可控,供水保证率可提高10%左右,发电效益可增加5%左右。     

提高水库汛限水位的防洪风险研究

水库在汛期的汛限水位,关系到水库发电效益与水库防洪安全两个方面。从防洪角度,汛限水位越低,意味着预留的水库调洪库容越大,对水库防洪较为有利。本文以江西省最大的水电站万安水库为实例,应用季节性的一阶自回归模型,研究提高水库汛限水位,对水库防洪风险的影响,为决策提供依据。     

三峡水库正常运行期入库流量计算方案分析

总结了三峡水库正常运行期的坝前水位一般控制规律,阐述了三峡库区动库容对其入库流量计算的影响.根据三峡水库的调节性能和坝前水位控制规律,将水库的坝前蓄水状态分为3个等级,并分析了各蓄水等级下的入库流量最佳计算方案,有效解决了入库流量的锯齿跳变问题,符合实际.     

冰雪融水型多沙河流水库泥沙设计

以新疆喀拉喀什河乌鲁瓦提水库泥沙设计为实例，分析了冰雪融水型多沙河流的水、沙特性，并根据水库担负的任务，利用水动力学泥沙数学模型及经典的三角洲整体平衡模型，进行了多方案水库淤积率比较。在此基础上，确定了水库调水、调沙运行方式，并布设了与之相应的泄流排沙设施，得出乌鲁瓦提水库有效库容可长期保持。     

百色水库防洪调度规则对老口枢纽防洪库容的影响分析

分析在百色水库不同防洪调度规则下,老口枢纽为满足防洪任务所需的相应防洪库容规模以及效益,提出了优化后的百色水库防洪蓄泄规则和老口枢纽相应的防洪库容规模.