基于 VAR 模型的全生命期房地产限购政策评价及实证——以厦门市为例

通过构建 VAR 模型,运用脉冲响应、方差分解和 JJ 协整检验,从全寿命期的角度分析了房地产限购政策执行及取消、货币供应量、住房贷款利率、房地产开发投资率对厦门房地产市场的动态影响,并为限购重启提供建议与借鉴。结果显示:房屋限购在短期并不能有效抑制房价上涨,长期能较好地给厦门房地产市场降温;限购取消在短期并不能给房地产市场升温,但长期将导致房价报复性上涨;房地产市场普遍存在“适应性预期”,厦门房价调控关键在于调节消费者和投资者的心理预期。     

住房政策下房地产租购决策仿真研究

分析了租购并举政策出台的背景、政策内涵和作用机理,识别了房地产市场主要的参与主体和部分影响因素,构建了基于多Agent 的房地产主体决策仿真模型,将政府主体决策模型化为各项政策调控措施,将消费者主体进行分类和效用函数建模,通过问卷调查和实证数据收集获得模型相关参数,选择Netlogo 平台进行仿真实验。仿真结果表明,以租购同权为代表的公共服务权利政策、房产税、限购措施均能在一定程度上起到对房价和投资行为的调控作用,同时,土地供给政策也会通过租购市场的联动影响房价和租购群体比率的变化。在仿真分析的基础上,提出相应政策建议。     

中国城市住房价格变化的影响因素分析——基于31个城市面板数据的实证研究

研究城市房价波动的影响因素及其程度,有助于提高政府宏观经济调控政策的针对性和有效性。首先构建住宅市场供需影响因素的均衡分析理论模型,然后通过固定效应模型,对我国31个主要城市1998~2008年的面板数据进行计量检验和实证研究。研究发现：利率和上期房价对房价的影响最为显著;收入水平对房价也存在一定影响,而空置率对房价上涨的影响较弱;人口、就业水平、地价和建设成本不能用来解释房价变化。     

房产税：无法导致房价短期大跌

国庆前,针对房地产的调控新政出台,中国将加快推进房产税改革试点,并逐步扩大到全国。 很多难以实现住房梦的人,或许以为房产税能导致房价大跌,圆他们的住房梦。然而,虽然住宅市场有较大泡沫,但房产税却很难让房价在短期内大跌。     

房地产限购政策的有效性评估研究——基于断点回归分析

基于断点回归的分析方法,利用国家中心城市房地产新建住宅价格指数与相关变量的月度数据,对各城市限购政策的有效性进行实证分析。结果表明,短期内限购政策的实施效果对不同城市的房价的作用效果不同,正向影响和负向影响并存,建立长效的房地产调控机制,是维持房地产市场稳定的必要措施。     

我国房地产宏观调控政策效果的实证分析

利用向量自回归(VAR)模型研究宏观调控政策对我国房地产市场供需和房价的实际影响.宏观调控政策选取利率、货币供应量和土地供给量,房地产市场供求选取房地产投资和商品房销售面积指标,建立房地产供给、需求和房价3个VAR模型系统.利用脉冲响应函数(IRF)和方差分解(Variance Decomposition)方法分析3种政策分别对房地产市场供需和房价的影响时滞、持续时间和作用强度.研究结果表明:①对房地产供给的影响,土地供给量影响最大且同向,利率影响其次且同向,货币供给量影响很小;②对房地产需求的影响,3种政策都很小;③对房价的影响,土地供给量最大且同向,其余2个政策影响都很小.结合我国当前房地产宏观调控的实践,土地供给为关键要素,建议政府适当放松土地供给量.     

房产税呼之欲出

十八大报告关注民生的主线让人对房价走势有了新的期许。 住房问题是民生方面的一个重要的组成部分．房地产市场调控也是这几年中央非常重视的一个问题。最新消息显示．房地产市场调控政策中央现在还没想放松,而住建部正在积极研究扩大房产税试点．房地产限购政策短期内不会退出。     

“国五条”遭遇“化绵掌”

3月1日,国务院办公厅发布《关于继续做好房地产市场调控工作通知》,对此前国务院常务会议提出的"国五条"进行进一步细化,主要内容包括:一季度公布房价控制目标;进一步完善现行住房限购措施,限购区域应覆盖城市全部行政区域;明确规定对于房价过快上涨城市,人民银行当地分支机构可进一步提高第二套住房贷款的首付款比例和贷款利率;对出售自有住房按规定征收的个人所得税,严格按转让所得20%计征;总结个人住房房产税改革试点城市经验,加快推进扩大试点工作;一季度公布住房用地供应计划;"十二五"期末,所有地级以上城市原则上实现个人住房信息系统联网。3月31曰深夜11点半,西安2013     

完善市场助推房企创新

中央政府实施限购等严厉房地产调控政策以来,调控的短期目标基本实现,投资、投机性需求在限购城市已基本被挤出市场,全国商品房价格过快上涨的趋势得到遏制。但是,不仅房价合理回归、房地产市场健康发展的长期调控目标任重道远,而且2013年房价仍有较大上涨压力。房地产蓝皮书专家对2013年房地产行业     

房产税对房价影响的研究综述

自房产税试点以来,房产税能否给一路上行的房价适度降温成为了众人争论的焦点,时至今日学术界的争议依然较大,而在未来,房产税的全面铺开是大概率事情,这对整个房地产市场影响深远。本文整理了房产税对房价影响的各种理论(观点),并深入分析了其内在的逻辑和优缺点,希望能为相关学者的进一步研究有所启示和帮助。     

Effects of policy changes on property prices— A simulation model

This paper presents a simulation model designed to predict the impact of policy changes on prices and quantities of owner‐occupied housing in the short and long run. Because liquidity considerations are important, house prices are assumed to depend on cash flow. The model predicts that elimination of interest subsidies in Sweden would cause a 10% short‐run decrease in price for new houses, but that prices would not change for old houses. In the long run, the volume of owner‐occupied housing would decline substantially and prices of old houses would increase by 15–20 %. Introduction of a property tax or a decrease in inflation are predicted to decrease house prices in the short run and to increase them in the long run as the volume of owner‐occupied housing shrinks.     

异质信念对中国房价波动的影响效应研究

购房者行为模型表明,异质信念对房价具有正向影响,无论公共预期如何,异质信念都将促进房价上涨。通过工具变量 2SLS 法对中国 35 个大中城市的实证分析表明,异质信念对房价波动显示出显著的解释力,并表现出明显的区域效应;以是否实施限购区分的分样本分析表明异质信念对房价的影响与公共预期的方向无关,从而验证了提出的推论,为异质信念条件下的政策调控提供了思路     

Housing price dynamics and bubble risk: the case of Turkey

Abstract

Housing prices have increased substantially in some emerging markets in recent years. Turkish housing market has also experienced a boom over the last decade with rapid house price appreciations. This study is the first to employ two different house price indexes to analyze housing bubble in Turkey in two different time periods, 2010:M1–2014:M12 and 2007:M6–2014:M12. We first capture the determinants of housing price by employing Bounds test and then examine whether rising house prices have been justified by fundamentals by employing OLS/FMOLS/DOLS, Kalman filter and ARIMA models. The Bounds test results suggest that there is a long-term cointegration among house price indexes and housing rent, construction cost and real mortgage interest rate. The results imply that the Turkish housing market has experienced some cases of overvaluation, but not bubble formation. This evidence has several implications for house price dynamics and risks in the Turkish housing market. Based on Turkish experience, the study also draws policy implications for emerging housing markets.     

中国房价涨势的需求拉动和溢出效应研究

基于 2006~2016 年中国 30 个省市的房价面板数据,运用固定效应模型和分位数回归从整体和局部的视角来探讨房价波动的影响因素。研究结果表明:从整体来看,收入和房价溢出水平拉动房价上涨的特征较为明显;在东部地区,人口因素对房价波动的正向影响强于其他因素;在中部地区,建设成本和房价溢出因素的变动对房价波动的影响最大;在西部地区,人口因素和房价溢出因素对房价涨势的影响最为显著。研究认为,应坚持贯彻“房子是用来住的,不是用来炒的”理念,遏制房地产的投机行为,使住房逐步恢复到原有的“居住”属性。     

房地产税对房产价格影响效应分析

基于2000~2012 年我国30 个省的房地产税和房价的面板数据,通过平稳性分析、协整检验以及回归分析,研究了我国房地产税和房价之间的关系。研究发现,房地产税对房价有正U 型影响效应,即短期内房地产税能有效抑制房价的上涨,而长期内房地产税的征收则会带动房价的上涨,同时,房地产税对房价的影响具有显著的区域差异,而且各房地产税种对房价的影响也不尽相同。而且上期房价、利率以及其他宏观经济环境对房价也有一定的影响。因此,我国现行房地产税收制度改革过程中,需要考虑宏观经济环境的影响,针对不同地区制定相应的税收政策。     

估价征税政策对深圳市二手房交易影响研究

在政府出台了一系列房地产市场调控政策的背景下,为有效评价评估价征税政策对于二手房交易均价走势的影响,以深圳市实施政策前后的房地产市场交易数据为基础,选取房屋属性和市场预期作为控制变量、调控政策作为虚拟变量,设定交互效应模型来考察该政策对二手房交易价格的调控效果。研究结果表明,交易单价受计税政策影响并不明显,在短期内,虽然二手房交易均价受市场预期影响,但随时间变化呈递减趋势,政策逐步被市场消化吸收。最后,基于现有研究成果,提供相关的政策建议,从而为政府在制定新的房地产调控政策方面提供参考。     

Housing Careers,House Price Dispersion and the Housing Market Multiplier

Housing markets reflect our housing consumption profile over the life cycle. As we age, marry and have kids, we seek larger dwellings and to a greater extent owner-occupied housing. The up-trading process has two key characteristics: first, it is equity induced. Second, it impacts both the supply and demand sides of housing markets. This is our point of departure. The paper combines a housing ladder with a house price index to show how up-trading amplifies shocks and introduces a multiplier into the housing market. The interplay between market segments results in up-trading induced price dispersion and a price response in the segments on top of the ladder that exceeds those of segments further down, even when shocks are equal across market segments. Finally, as up-trading impacts both housing supply and housing demand, even balanced shocks to net demand might impact house prices. Focusing on different market segments, shocks to demand might have both direct (the size effect) and indirect (the up-trading effect) effects on the house price index. This paper highlights policy options at a finer level when in need of stimulating or dampening house price cycles.     

Housing careers,asset accumulation and subsidies to owner occupiers — A microsimulation

Owner occupiers in the UK housing market receive considerable central government subsidies, namely through provision of tax relief upon mortgage interest, through exemption of private house sales from capital gains tax and through tax advantages relative to those who pay rent out of their net incomes. This paper sets out a framework for assessing the incidence of these subsidies upon different groups of owner occupiers over time, and suggests how regional fluctuations in house price inflation, size of house purchase loan and residential mobility behaviour affect the incidence of exchequer subsidy.     

Do Urban House Prices Converge?

We investigate two aspects of housing market price dynamics. Firstly, whether the spatial pattern of house prices in a metropolitan housing market converge or diverge over time and secondly, whether suburbs with relatively low (high) house prices 20 years ago continue to occupy the same relative position in the house price distribution. The empirical work uses a property transaction database for Melbourne to examine the changing distribution of suburban house prices over a nearly 20-year period (1990–2009) that spans two housing cycles. We focus on convergence measures that use Melbourne submarket-based repeat sale house price indexes as a unit of measurement. We find that house prices diverge, and so the gap between low-priced submarkets and high-priced submarkets is increasing. A second key result is that low-priced submarkets typically remain at the low end of the house price distribution, because their rates of appreciation fall short of those at the upper end of the house price distribution. The geography of house price dynamics suggests that the price gradient with respect to distance from the central business district is becoming steeper.