Drivers of water quality in a large water storage reservoir during a period of extreme drawdown

This study examined the drivers of water quality in a large water storage reservoir (Lake Hume) during a period of extreme drawdown (to less than 3% of capacity). During the period of extreme drawdown, the reservoir can be thought of as consisting of three separate but inter-related parcels of water. The warm surface mixed layer was about 6m deep. Cold water inflows from the Mitta Mitta River undershot the surface mixed layer in the Mitta Mitta arm of the reservoir and flowed along the bottom of the reservoir to the Dam Wall without substantial interaction with the surface mixed layer. When inflows from the Murray River occurred, the temperature of these inflows was similar to that of the surface mixed layer within the dam and the flows appeared to move within the surface mixed layer towards the Dam Wall. These Murray River inflows were insufficient to promote total mixing of the surface and bottom waters. The Murray River arm of the reservoir became a 'hot spot' for nutrient production. Stratification and subsequent anoxic conditions promoted the release of nutrients - ammonium, organic N and total P - from the sediments into the overlying hypolimnion. Because the depth of the lake was relatively shallow due to the extreme drawdown, wind driven events lead to a substantial deepening (turnover) of the thermocline allowing periodic pulses of nutrients into the warm surface layer. These nutrient pulses appeared to stimulate cyanobacterial growth. Warm inflows from the Murray River then served to push the blooms formed in the Murray arm into the main body of the lake.     

Floods,cyclones, drought and climate change in Bangladesh: a reality check

This paper seeks to correct prevailing assumptions about Bangladesh’s susceptibility to floods, tropical cyclones and drought, and the extent to which global warming has already affected the country’s climate. Analysis of 50 years of the country’s climate and hydrological data showed no evidence that rainfall amounts have changed or that floods, tropical cyclones and droughts have increased in frequency or severity. The extent to which global warming might have affected temperatures is made uncertain by the probably greater impact on temperatures at recording stations of widespread changes in land use and the heat-island effect resulting from urban expansion around the stations. The paper reviews both the diversity of environments in Bangladesh’s coastal area exposed to sea-level rise and the possible mitigation methods. Two major conclusions are drawn: that population increase and rapid urbanisation pose more serious immediate problems for development planning in Bangladesh than climate change; and that education at all levels needs to include practical field studies that could provide all students with a better understanding of the country’s diverse and locally complex environments.     

The British river of the future: How climate change and human activity might affect two contrasting river ecosystems in England

The possible effects of changing climate on a southern and a north-eastern English river (the Thames and the Yorkshire Ouse, respectively) were examined in relation to water and ecological quality throughout the food web. The CLASSIC hydrological model, driven by output from the Hadley Centre climate model (HadCM3), based on IPCC low and high CO₂ emission scenarios for 2080 were used as the basis for the analysis. Compared to current conditions, the CLASSIC model predicted lower flows for both rivers, in all seasons except winter. Such an outcome would lead to longer residence times (by up to a month in the Thames), with nutrient, organic and biological contaminant concentrations elevated by 70-100% pro-rata, assuming sewage treatment effectiveness remains unchanged. Greater opportunities for phytoplankton growth will arise, and this may be significant in the Thames. Warmer winters and milder springs will favour riverine birds and increase the recruitment of many coarse fish species. However, warm, slow-flowing, shallower water would increase the incidence of fish diseases. These changing conditions would make southern UK rivers in general a less favourable habitat for some species of fish, such as the Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Accidental or deliberate, introductions of alien macrophytes and fish may change the range of species in the rivers. In some areas, it is possible that a concurrence of different pressures may give rise to the temporary loss of ecosystem services, such as providing acceptable quality water for humans and industry. An increasing demand for water in southern England due to an expanding population, a possibly reduced flow due to climate change, together with the Water Framework Directive obligation to maintain water quality, will put extreme pressure on river ecosystems, such as the Thames.     

Simulating the impacts of future land use and climate changes on surface water quality in the Des Plaines River watershed, Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area, Illinois

Modeling the effects of past and current land use composition and climatic patterns on surface water quality provides valuable information for environmental and land planning. This study predicts the future impacts of urban land use and climate changes on surface water quality within Des Plaines River watershed, Illinois, between 2010 and 2030. Land Change Modeler (LCM) was used to characterize three future land use/planning scenarios. Each scenario encourages low density residential growth, normal urban growth, and commercial growth, respectively. Future climate patterns examined include the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) B1 and A1B groups. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to estimate total suspended solids and phosphorus concentration generated at a 10 year interval. The predicted results indicate that for a large portion of the watershed, the concentration of total suspended solids (TSS) would be higher under B1 and A1B climate scenarios during late winter and early spring compared to the same period in 2010; while the summer period largely demonstrates a reverse trend. Model results further suggest that by 2020, phosphorus concentration would be higher during the summer under B1 climate scenario compared to 2010, and is expected to wane by 2030. The projected phosphorus concentrations during the late winter and early spring periods vary across climate and land use scenarios. The analysis also denotes that middle and high density residential development can reduce excess TSS concentration, while the establishment of dense commercial and industrial development might help ameliorate high phosphorus levels. The combined land use and climate change analysis revealed land use development schemes that can be adopted to mitigate potential future water quality impairment. This research provides important insights into possible adverse consequences on surface water quality and resources under certain climate change and land use scenarios.     

Predicting the vulnerability of reservoirs to poor water quality and cyanobacterial blooms

Cyanobacterial blooms in drinking water reservoirs present a major ecosystem functioning and human health issue. The ability to predict reservoir vulnerability to these blooms would provide information critical for decision making, hazard prevention and management. We developed a new, comparative index of vulnerability based on simple measures of reservoir and catchment characteristics, rather than water quality data, which were instead used to test the index’s effectiveness. Testing was based on water quality data collected over a number of seasons and years from 15 drinking water reservoirs in subtropical, southeast Queensland. The index correlated significantly and strongly with algal cell densities, including potentially toxic cyanobacteria, as well as with the proportions of cyanobacteria in summer months. The index also performed better than each of the measures of reservoir and catchment characteristics alone, and as such, was able to encapsulate the physical characteristics of subtropical reservoirs, and their catchments, into an effective indicator of the vulnerability to summer blooms. This was further demonstrated by calculating the index for a new reservoir to be built within the study region. Under planned dimensions and land use, a comparatively high level of vulnerability was reached within a few years. However, the index score and the number of years taken to reach a similar level of vulnerability could be reduced simply by decreasing the percentage of grazing land cover via revegetation within the catchment. With climate change, continued river impoundment and the growing demand for potable water, our index has potential decision making benefits when planning future reservoirs to reduce their vulnerability to cyanobacterial blooms.     

The driest continent and the greediest water company: newspaper reporting of drought in Sydney and London

Analysis of press reports of the onset of drought in Sydney in 2002 and London in 2006 shows different understandings of the relationship between infrastructure provision, individual behaviour and the environment. Drought is both a natural and cultural phenomenon requiring urban water managers to consider social as well as technical considerations in preparing for future droughts.     

Controlling harmful cyanobacterial blooms in a world experiencing anthropogenic and climatic-induced change

Harmful (toxic, food web altering, hypoxia generating) cyanobacterial algal blooms (CyanoHABs) are proliferating world-wide due to anthropogenic nutrient enrichment, and they represent a serious threat to the use and sustainability of our freshwater resources. Traditionally, phosphorus (P) input reductions have been prescribed to control CyanoHABs, because P limitation is widespread and some CyanoHABs can fix atmospheric nitrogen (N₂) to satisfy their nitrogen (N) requirements. However, eutrophying systems are increasingly plagued with non N₂ fixing CyanoHABs that are N and P co-limited or even N limited. In many of these systems N loads are increasing faster than P loads. Therefore N and P input constraints are likely needed for long-term CyanoHAB control in such systems. Climatic changes, specifically warming, increased vertical stratification, salinization, and intensification of storms and droughts play additional, interactive roles in modulating CyanoHAB frequency, intensity, geographic distribution and duration. In addition to having to consider reductions in N and P inputs, water quality managers are in dire need of effective tools to break the synergy between nutrient loading and hydrologic regimes made more favorable for CyanoHABs by climate change. The more promising of these tools make affected waters less hospitable for CyanoHABs by 1) altering the hydrology to enhance vertical mixing and/or flushing and 2) decreasing nutrient fluxes from organic rich sediments by physically removing the sediments or capping sediments with clay. Effective future CyanoHAB management approaches must incorporate both N and P loading dynamics within the context of altered thermal and hydrologic regimes associated with climate change.     

Long-term trends in water quality and their impact on macroinvertebrate assemblages in eutrophic lowland rivers

Long-term trends in water quality in eutrophic lowland rivers in eastern England were investigated and their impact on macroinvertebrate assemblages studied. Dissolved oxygen (DO) declined significantly in eight rivers in Essex and Suffolk over 40 years to 1998. Chloride concentrations significantly increased during the same period in most rivers. Total oxidized nitrogen and soluble reactive phosphorus increased until the 1980s, then began to decline. Biotic scores (Lincoln Quality Index) generally increased over 14 years to 1998 and there were significant positive relationships between biotic scores and several nutrients. Invertebrate families and environmental variables sampled over the eight rivers in a dry year (1997) and a wet year (1998) were subjected to multivariate analysis. River stretches were grouped according to substrate requirements of indicator invertebrates. In the dry year, those river stretches behind mills or immediately downstream of sewage treatment works (STW) were grouped. In the wet year, there was only one separate group, comprising sites downstream of STWs. Nutrients, DO and low flows have a much greater influence on water quality, and hence invertebrate assemblages, during drought years than during wet years.     

Water quality, nutrients and the European union's Water Framework Directive in a lowland agricultural region: Suffolk, south-east England

The water quality of 13 rivers in the lowland, agricultural county of Suffolk is investigated using routine monitoring data for the period 1981 to 2006 collected by the Environment Agency of England and Wales (EA), and its predecessors, with particular emphasis on phosphorus (as total reactive phosphorus, TRP) and total (dissolved and particulate) oxidised nitrogen (TOxN — predominantly nitrate NO₃). Major ion and flow data are used to outline fundamental hydrochemical characteristics related to the groundwater provenance of base-flow waters. Relative load contributions from point and diffuse sources are approximated using Load Apportionment Modelling for both TRP and TOxN where concurrent flow and concentration data are available. Analyses indicate a mixture of point and diffuse sources of TRP, with the former being dominant during low flow periods, while for TOxN diffuse sources dominate.Out of 59 sites considered, 53 (90%) were found to have annual average TRP concentrations greater than 0.05 mg P l^− 1, and 36 (61%) had average concentrations over 0.120 mg P l^− 1, the upper thresholds for ‘High’ and ‘Good’ ecological status, respectively. Correspondingly, for TOxN, most of the rivers are already within 70% of the 11.3 mg N l^− 1 threshold, with two rivers (Wang and Ore) being consistently greater than this.It is suggested that the major challenge is to characterise and control point-source TRP inputs which, being predominant during the late spring and summer low-flow period, coincide with the peak of primary biological production, thus presenting the major challenge to achieving ‘good’ ecological status under the Water Framework Directive. Results show that considerable effort is still required to ensure appropriate management and develop tools for decision-support.     

Recent water quality trends in the Schuylkill River,Pennsylvania, USA: a preliminary assessment of the relative influences of climate,river discharge and suburban development

Climate, flow rate and land use are all known drivers of water quality in river systems, but determining the relative influences of these factors remains a significant challenge for aquatic science and management. Long-term data from the Schuylkill River at Philadelphia is assessed here in an attempt to ascertain the separate and combined influence of these major drivers on water quality in a developed watershed. Water quality measures including nutrients, conservative solutes and bacteria all elicited distinct seasonal patterns driven primarily by river discharge. Mass transport rates of sodium and chloride have increased with time, and were elevated in winter, presumably as a function of road salt deposition. A steady increase in developed land area in the watershed has occurred in recent decades, which allowed the use of time as a surrogate parameter for regional development in the construction of multiple factor linear models predicting the relative influences of precipitation, river discharge and developed land area on river water quality. Linear models predicting annually averaged water quality measures showed the effects of precipitation, discharge and developed land area to be of nearly equal importance in regulating levels of conductivity, alkalinity, sodium, and chloride in the river. Models predicting water quality variables for discrete samples demonstrated that river flow was the major determinant of daily variability in alkalinity, conductivity, hardness and calcium levels, while still resolving the highly significant influence of watershed development on water quality. Increases in solute transport in the Schuylkill River in recent decades appear to be the direct result of modern suburban development in the watershed.     

The apparent and potential effects of climate change on the inferred concentration of dissolved organic matter in a temperate stream (the Mal e River, South Bohemia)

Long-term and seasonal changes in concentration of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and their possible drivers were evaluated for an upland stream in central Europe during 1969–2000. Two periods have been detected within this data set—years with decreased DOM until the middle of 1980s and then years with increased DOM until 2000. Temperature, hydrological regime of runoff from the catchment (namely the amount of interflow), and changes in atmospheric deposition of acidity coincided with the variations in DOM concentrations. The analysis of single runoff events confirmed the relation between the export of increased DOM concentrations from the catchment and interflow. A multiple linear regression model based on monthly averages of temperature and interflow explained 67% of DOM variability. This model suggested a 7% increase in DOM concentration under the scenarios of possible future climate change related to doubled CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere. The scenarios were based on results of several global circulation models.     

Climate change induced salinisation of artificial lakes in the Netherlands and consequences for drinking water production

In this paper we present a modelling study to investigate the impacts of climate change on the chloride concentration and salinisation processes in two man-made freshwater lakes in the Netherlands, Lake IJsselmeer and Lake Markermeer. We used a transient compartmental chloride and water balance model to elucidate the salinisation processes occurring under present conditions and assess future salinisation under two climate forcing scenarios. The model results showed that the Rhine River is the dominant determinant for the chloride concentration in both lakes, followed by drainage of brackish groundwater from the surrounding polders. The results further show that especially during dry years, seawater intrusion through the tidal closure dam is an important source of chloride to Lake IJsselmeer. The results from the climatic forcing scenarios show that Lake IJsselmeer is especially vulnerable to climate-induced salinisation whereas effects on Lake Markermeer are relatively small. Peak chloride concentrations at the raw water intake of the Andijk drinking water facility on Lake IJsselmeer are projected to increase to values above 250 mg/l in the most far-reaching climate change scenario W+ in 2050 for dry years. This is well above the maximum allowable concentration of 150 mg/l for chloride in drinking water.Modelling showed that climate change impacts the chloride concentrations in a variety of ways: 1) an increasing occurrence of low river flows from summer to autumn reduces the dilution of the chloride that is emitted to the Rhine with a constant load thereby increasing its concentration; 2) increased open water evaporation and reduced rainfall during summer periods and droughts increases the chloride concentration in the water; and 3) rises in sea level increase seawater intrusion through the tidal closure dam of Lake IJsselmeer. The processes described here are likely to affect many other tidal rivers or lakes and should be considered when planning future raw water intake stations for drinking water production or agricultural water supply.     

斑马鱼生物学效应的研究进展及在水质监测中的应用

主要从不同污染物胁迫介绍了斑马鱼的呼吸行为、运动行为、群体行为等行为学效应,以及个体、器官、细胞、分子等多种水平的毒理效应,同时对斑马鱼行为学和毒理效应在水质监测和水环境评价方面的应用做出介绍和展望,得出综合斑马鱼的行为变化和毒理效应两个方面能更准确地表征水体污染类型及污染程度。     

The effects of changing water flow velocity on the formation of biofilms and water quality in pilot distribution system consisting of copper or polyethylene pipes

We studied the effects of flow velocity on the formation of biofilms and the concentration of bacteria in water in copper and plastic (polyethylene, PE) pipes. The formation of biofilms increased with the flow velocity of water. The increase in microbial numbers and contents of ATP was clearer in the PE pipes than in the copper pipes. This was also seen as increased consumption of microbial nutrients in the pipeline system. This indicates that the mass transfer of nutrients is in major role in the growth of biofilms. However, the increased biomass of biofilms did not affect microbial numbers in the water. Rapid changes in water flow rate resuspended biofilms and sediments which increased the concentrations of bacteria and copper in water. The disturbance caused by the changing water flow was also seen as an increase in the particle counts and water turbidity recorded with online instrumentation.     

Microbiological surveillance of private water supplies in England - The impact of environmental and climate factors on water quality

A passive surveillance system captured information on 34,904 microbiological samples from 11,233 private drinking water supplies within England as well as the associated constructional, climatic and environmental variables. Escherichia coli was detected in 6588 (18.87%) of samples and at least one positive sample was detected from 3638 (32.39%) of sites. However, this estimate of supplies failing to meet the European drinking water E. coli standard was probably an underestimate as the more samples taken per supply, the more likely the supply was to fail. A multivariable model of private water supplies data showed a strong seasonal impact, with samples between January and May being significantly less contaminated with E. coli than samples between June and December. Samples from springs (OR 2.5, CI 2.0-3.1) or surface waters (OR 2.4, CI 0.8-7.0) were more likely to fail than groundwater sources, as were supplies with no effective treatment (OR1.8, CI 1.5-2.3). Commercial supplies were less likely to fail than domestic supplies (OR 0.63, CI 0.48-0.83) and the probability of failure was linearly associated with the density of sheep in the area and rainfall on the previous day. A Monte Carlo modelling approach was used to estimate that, had sufficient samples been taken, 54% (95% confidence intervals 49-59%) of all private water supplies in England were likely to be unsatisfactory. These findings will be able to inform risk assessments of private water supplies prior to microbiological results being available.     

Understanding the influence of suspended solids on water quality and aquatic biota

Over the last 50 years the effects of suspended solids (SS) on fish and aquatic life have been studied intensively throughout the world. It is now accepted that SS are an extremely important cause of water quality deterioration leading to aesthetic issues, higher costs of water treatment, a decline in the fisheries resource, and serious ecological degradation of aquatic environments. As such, government-led environmental bodies have set recommended water quality guidelines for concentrations of SS in freshwater systems. However, these reference values are often spurious or based on the concept of turbidity as a surrogate measure of the concentration of SS. The appropriateness of these recommended water quality values is evaluated given: (1) the large variability and uncertainty in data available from research describing the effects of SS on aquatic environments, (2) the diversity of environments that these values are expected to relate to, and (3) the range of conditions experienced within these environments. Furthermore, we suggest that reliance solely upon turbidity data as a surrogate for SS must be treated with caution, as turbidity readings respond to factors other than just concentrations of SS, as well as being influenced by the particle-size distribution and shape of SS particles. In addition, turbidity is a measure of only one of the many detrimental effects, reviewed in this paper, which high levels of SS can have in waterbodies. In order to improve the understanding of the effects of SS on aquatic organisms, this review suggests that: First, high-resolution turbidity monitoring should be supplemented with direct, measurements of SS (albeit at lower resolution due to resource issues). This would allow the turbidity record to be checked and calibrated against SS, effectively building a rating-relationship between SS and turbidity, which would in-turn provide a clearer picture of the exact magnitude of the SS problem. Second, SS should also be characterised in terms of their particle-size distribution and chemical composition. This would provide information to develop a more comprehensive understanding of the observed variable effects of a given concentration of SS in aquatic habitats. These two suggested improvements, combined with lower-resolution concurrent measures of aquatic ecological status, would improve our understanding of the effects of SS in aquatic environments and together with a more detailed classification of aquatic environments, would provide an environment-specific evidence base for the establishment of effective water quality guidelines for SS.     

Trends in hydrometeorological conditions and stream water organic carbon in boreal forested catchments

Temporal trends in stream water total organic carbon (TOC) concentration and export were studied in 8 forested headwater catchments situated in eastern Finland. The Seasonal Kendall test was conducted to identify the trends and a mixed model regression analysis was used to describe how catchment characteristics and hydrometeorological variables (e.g. precipitation, air and stream water temperatures, and atmospheric deposition) related to the variation in the concentration and export of stream water TOC. The 8 catchments varied in size from 29 to 494 ha and in the proportion of peatland they contained, from 8 to 70%. Runoff and TOC concentration were monitored for 15-29 years (1979-2006). Trends and variation in TOC levels were analysed from annual and seasonal time series. Mean annual TOC concentration increased significantly in seven of the eight catchments. The trends were the strongest in spring and most apparent during the last decade of the study period. The slopes of the trends were generally smaller than the variation in TOC concentration between years and seasons and between catchments. The annual TOC export showed no clear trends and values were largely determined by the temporal variability in runoff. Annual runoff showed a decreasing trend in two of the eight catchments. Mean annual air and stream water temperatures showed increasing trends, most clearly seen in the summer and autumn series. According to our modeling results, stream water temperature, precipitation and peatland percentage were the most important variables explaining annual and most seasonal TOC concentrations. The atmospheric deposition of SO₄, NH₄, and NO₃ decreased significantly over the study period, but no significant link with TOC concentration was found. Precipitation was the main hydrometeorological driver of the TOC export. We concluded that stream water TOC concentrations and exports are mainly driven by catchment characteristics and hydrometeorological factors rather than trends in atmospheric acid deposition.     

Climate impacts on European agriculture and water management in the context of adaptation and mitigation—The importance of an integrated approach

We review and qualitatively assess the importance of interactions and feedbacks in assessing climate change impacts on water and agriculture in Europe. We focus particularly on the impact of future hydrological changes on agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation and adaptation options. Future projected trends in European agriculture include northward movement of crop suitability zones and increasing crop productivity in Northern Europe, but declining productivity and suitability in Southern Europe. This may be accompanied by a widening of water resource differences between the North and South, and an increase in extreme rainfall events and droughts. Changes in future hydrology and water management practices will influence agricultural adaptation measures and alter the effectiveness of agricultural mitigation strategies. These interactions are often highly complex and influenced by a number of factors which are themselves influenced by climate. Mainly positive impacts may be anticipated for Northern Europe, where agricultural adaptation may be shaped by reduced vulnerability of production, increased water supply and reduced water demand. However, increasing flood hazards may present challenges for agriculture, and summer irrigation shortages may result from earlier spring runoff peaks in some regions. Conversely, the need for effective adaptation will be greatest in Southern Europe as a result of increased production vulnerability, reduced water supply and increased demands for irrigation. Increasing flood and drought risks will further contribute to the need for robust management practices.The impacts of future hydrological changes on agricultural mitigation in Europe will depend on the balance between changes in productivity and rates of decomposition and GHG emission, both of which depend on climatic, land and management factors. Small increases in European soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks per unit land area are anticipated considering changes in climate, management and land use, although an overall reduction in the total stock may result from a smaller agricultural land area. Adaptation in the water sector could potentially provide additional benefits to agricultural production such as reduced flood risk and increased drought resilience.The two main sources of uncertainty in climate impacts on European agriculture and water management are projections of future climate and their resulting impacts on water and agriculture. Since changes in climate, agricultural ecosystems and hydrometeorology depend on complex interactions between the atmosphere, biosphere and hydrological cycle there is a need for more integrated approaches to climate impacts assessments. Methods for assessing options which “moderate” the impact of agriculture in the wider sense will also need to consider cross-sectoral impacts and socio-economic aspects.     

The implementation deficits of adaptation and mitigation: green buildings and water security in Amsterdam and Boston

Frameworks of environmental regulations are fundamental yet problematic factors in achieving climate mitigation and adaptation policy goals. Recent theoretical arguments claim the value of general legal frameworks to enable experimentation and contextual adaptation of policies. However, empirical research regarding the effects of both general and specific norms in the practice of urban intervention remains limited. In this article we empirically discern how city governments deal with the tension between control and flexibility in the implementation of urban climate change goals. We argue that policies of adaptation/mitigation face two types of implementation problems: non-adaptive implementation and non-implementation. The first stems from an excessively constraining use of rules, while the second derives from a too general and undefined regulatory framework. Analysing two empirical cases in Amsterdam, Netherlands and Boston, MA, USA, we conclude that there are three elements that affect the way actors deal with these deficits: the level of scale at which regulations are established, the degree of land ownership which provides margin of manoeuvre to public authorities, and the sense of political urgency behind mitigation and adaptation policies.     

The impact of climate change on reservoir water quality and water treatment plant operations: a UK case study

A simplified climate change impact assessment tool (SCIAT) has been developed to address the specific needs of the water industry and provides a tool to translate climate change projections into ‘real world’ impacts. Its application is demonstrated in this study to assess the impacts of climate change on the reservoir water quality and water treatment plant (WTP) operations at Grafham Water in the east of England. The primary aim is to provide WTP operators with knowledge of the potential impacts and associated probabilities of occurrence of climate change, enabling them to make informed, risk‐based adaptation and planning decisions. Using a series of coupled hydrological and water‐quality models, it is likely that there will be a decline in average reservoir water quality. Climate change will also have an impact on WTP operations, but these will be manageable within the current operational parameters.