基于EM算法的不完全疲劳寿命数据可靠性分析

针对随机截尾寿命数据模型的参数估计,提出基于EM算法的通用算法,并以疲劳寿命计算中所常用的二参数威布尔分布模型为例,给出基于EM算法的寿命数据拟合通用方法.另外对于服从复杂分布模型的数据,则采用与蒙特卡洛法相结合的EM算法.最后通过计算模拟的不完全疲劳寿命数据,验证了EM算法对于随机截尾寿命数据模型参数估计的有效性.     

两种非正态总体参数的区间估计

推导给出了两类非正态总体参数的区间估计,对二项分布的参数P和泊松分布的参数λ分别给出了其等尾双侧区间估计.     

基于改进泊松-复合小波模型的复合地基全过程沉降预测

对复合地基全过程沉降预测模型与方法进行了研究.分析了改进泊松模型的特点和适用性,提出了改进泊松-复合小波神经网络修正模型.结合实际工程数据对CFG桩复合地基全过程沉降进行了分析和预测,并与改进的泊松模型进行了对比分析.结果表明,提出的模型适用性强,具有更高的预测精度,其绝对误差在1mm以内.     

等级反应模型的Gibbs抽样方法

探讨了MCMC算法在多级评分项目反应模型参数估计中的实现及其估计精度.针对等级反应模型,基于数据扩充技术,提出了一种高效灵活的Gibbs抽样方法,得到了各个参数的Markov链.随着潜在变量的引入,每个参数的满条件分布为相应参数的先验分布的截断分布.这种抽样方法适用于任何类型的先验分布,不受先验分布形式的约束.对应每个待估参数,去掉所得Markov链前面的一些迭代值,用后面的迭代结果作估计,得到相应参数的Bayes后验估计.并通过随机模拟实验验证了该方法的有效性.     

δ-冲击模型及随机检测

讨论了δ-冲击模型,在泊松冲击流下给出了一些可靠性指标:系统可靠度函数和首次故障前平均时间.在假设检测间隔形成一个泊松过程的条件下,利用随机的思想来研究遭受随机冲击系统的最优检测问题.     

基于改进微粒群优化的泊松曲线沉降预测模型

在现有文献研究的基础上,对泊松曲线沉降预测模型作了进一步的研究,给出了泊松曲线沉降预测模型的一个新方法-改进的微粒群最优化方法.该算法不需要计算梯度,容易应用于实际问题中.通过对微粒群算法的修正,使改进算法具有更加精确和快速的收敛性.经实例计算表明,这种方法具有较高的精度.     

基于泊松簇过程的三层异构蜂窝网络部署模型

5G标准下的蜂窝网络正在向异构化、超密集化的方向发展,传统的基于六边形网格模型的研究方法较为理想化且并不精确,越来越不适用于如今的异构网络.针对这个问题,目前常用的方法是使用基于随机几何的泊松点过程来研究异构网络的基站部署,这种方法假设基站的空域分布完全随机,因此得到了覆盖概率的理论下界.但是由于宏蜂窝边缘（盲区）以及热点地区（忙区）等特殊区域中,站点的分布可能形成簇,此时,基于泊松点过程的空域分布将不再准确.针对这个问题,本文使用泊松簇过程研究三层异构蜂窝网络的基站部署与规划.首先,提出基于泊松簇过程的基站部署系统模型,讨论了基于簇分布的基站形成过程;其次,在充分分析用户受到的聚集干扰基础上,采用基于瞬时信干噪比的小区选择机制,推导出了中断概率模型,并讨论了三种特殊条件下的中断概率;最后,通过仿真对比分析了基于泊松簇过程与泊松点过程的中断概率的差异以及信干噪比阈值变化时的中断概率的变化曲线,证明了基于簇的空域基站部署具有更低的中断概率.     

计数模型在旅游资源经济价值评估中的应用

应用个人旅行费用模型对大连市付家庄海滨浴场的价值进行了评价.在分析中使用了泊松模型与负二项模型,结果,泊松模型与负二项模型都通过了检验,但由于存在过离散问题,因此,负二项模型评价结果更合理.最终评估的海滨浴场的经济价值为每人每次95.78元.     

原始疲劳质量模型描述方法改进

提出了用神经网络插值代替拉氏插值计算裂纹形成时间(TTCI)值,用极大似然估计代替均秩估计法估计分布参数的方法.考虑到仅对一组TTCI值进行参数估计具有较大的随机性,文中对每种参考裂纹尺寸对应的TTCI值均进行极大似然估计,得出多组TTCI分布参数;然后利用不同参考裂纹尺寸对应的TTCI分布参数之间的关系确定结构细节的当量初始缺陷尺寸分布参数.对某零件的疲劳实验及其原始疲劳质量分析证明了该方法的可行性和合理性.     

单参数指数分布的Bayes估计及最短区间

贝叶斯估计是统计推断中关于总体参数估计的一种方法,文章研究了在平方损失下,单参数指数分布的Bayes估计,并且介绍了单参数指数分布的最短置信区间.     

转炉炉壳热应力分析

根据实际转炉建立实体模型。以有限元为手段,考虑了炉衬和炉壳材料的物性参数随温度变化的特点和炉衬与炉壳之间膨胀间隙,计算了转炉炉壳在温度载荷和炉衬膨胀压力同时作用下的热应力。所得结果可为转炉炉壳设计提供依据。     

焦炭热性能指标意义浅析

通过对焦炭在高炉内的历程及其变化规律的剖析,阐述焦炭热性能指标的意义,形象地把焦炭在高炉内的损耗分为三部分(M1,M2,M3)。指出M2对焦比及焦炭价格有一定的指导作用。     

Results of treatment of cancer of the cardia

Cancer of the cardia is traditionally discussed with cardiac cancer of the lower portion of the esophagus and upper gastric cancer invading the esophagus, and the specific characteristics of cancer of the cardia have never been clearly defined. We reviewed the outcome of 172 patients with adenocarcinoma of the cardia who had undergone radical surgery between 1949 and 1994 in the Division of Gastrointestinal Surgery of the Cancer Institute Hospital. The centers of the tumors were located within 2 cm above and below the boundary between the esophagus and the stomach, and their longitudinal diameter was less than 8 cm. We divided the patients into an early period (1949-1979; n = 79) and a late period (1980-1994; n = 93), and focused on the historical transition. There were no differences in patient gender or histology between the two periods. However, the late period was associated with fewer cases of esophageal invasion and shorter longitudinal diameter, as the age of the population advanced. The number of advanced cancers such as the localized and infiltrative type had decreased, and early cancer and early clinical stage had become more common, but despite the fact that the number of early cancers had increased, extended dissection, such as thoracic and paraaortic lymph node dissection, was performed more frequently. By clinical stage, the long-term outcome markedly improved in Stage I patient in the late period, and tended to improve in Stage II and III patients. This appears to have been attributable to the prevention of micrometastasis by extended dissection, although the number of early cancers is another major potential cause. There were no differences in the outcome of Stage IV patients between the two periods, and further advances in multimodality therapy must be awaited. The range of resection is basically proximal gastrectomy, and if there are adequate indications, the prognosis is favorable. In view of the status of lymphatic flow and lymph node metastasis, and long-term results, lateroaortic lymph node dissection is important. Since the number of early cancer patients has been increasing, if intraabdominal recurrence is prevented, intrathoracic lymph node dissection will contribute greatly to the outcome of such patients.     

The effect of amount of possession of the trait of hostility on accuracy of perception of hostility in others.

Some theories of personality hold that an individual's perception of others is influenced by his own personality characteristics; more specifically, that a trait of low social value will be projected more into others, and that insight into the possession of these characteristics reduces this distortion. These 2 hypotheses were tested by having a group of college students rate each other (including themselves) on degree of friendliness or hostility. Agreement with group rating about self yielded the insight score. In general, the hypotheses were supported; the "friendly" Ss were most accurate in their perception of others, and insight was positively associated with accurate perception. From Psyc Abstracts 36:04:4HL16M. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Effect of antibiotics of chemotaxis of human leukocytes

The effect of 20 different antibiotics on chemotaxis by human neutrophils was studied. Human leukocytes incubated with chloramphenicol, rifampin, sodium fusidate, and tetracyclines in vitro showed markedly depressed migration. The mechanisms by which these antibiotics affect leukotaxis are discussed.     

Quality of life of relatives of mental patients

Usage of quality of life of psychiatric patients' relatives as the parameter of estimation of the quality of psychiatric care is considered. By means of standard questionnaire elaborated by the authors as well as by means of both individual and group conversations the quality of life was analyzed in 40 relatives which lived together with psychiatric patients. Different spheres of their life and difficulties (financial, social-psychologic, production) were examined in families with such patients. The defects of psychiatric care that had direct influence on the quality of life of the psychiatric patients' relatives are outlined.