Domestic demand for petroleum products in MENA countries

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the domestic demand for petroleum products in the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries employing a recent data series (1982–2005). Understanding the domestic demand of oil producing countries is important due to the existence of subsidised supply, loss of foreign exchange income and the environmental effects of oil use.     

Optimal design of advanced drop-in hydrocarbon biofuel supply chain integrating with existing petroleum refineries under uncertainty

This paper addresses the optimal design of an advanced hydrocarbon biofuel supply chain integrated with existing petroleum refineries. Three major insertion points from the biofuel supply chain to the petroleum refineries are investigated and analyzed, including bio-intermediates co-processed with crude oil, bio-intermediates co-processed with refinery intermediates, and finished biofuels blended with conventional petroleum products. A multiperiod, mixed-integer linear programming model is proposed that accounts for diverse conversion pathway, technology, and insertion point selections, biomass seasonality, geographical diversity, biomass degradation, demand distribution and government incentives. This model simultaneously optimizes the supply chain design, insertion point selection, and production planning. In addition, the conversion rate, operation cost associated with insertion points in petroleum refinery, as well as the biomass availability and product demand are modeled as fuzzy numbers to account for the data uncertainty. A fuzzy possibilistic programming approach is applied to this model, where possibility, necessity and credibility measures are adopted according to the decision makers' preference. This model is illustrated by the county level case study of Illinois. Compared to traditional biofuel supply chains, advanced hydrocarbon biofuel supply chain integrating with existing petroleum refinery infrastructure significantly reduces capital cost and total annualized cost.     

中国石油储备体系探讨及对策

自1993年我国成为石油净进口国以来,石油供需缺口逐年加大,不断增加石油进口将是大势所趋。目前我国的石油储备能力远远不能适应石油企业和国家应付某些突发事件的需要。通过分析我国石油储备现状及面临的国内外严峻形势的挑战,重点阐述了建立战略石油储备的必要性和紧迫性。因此,应该借鉴美、日等国的石油储备经验,有计划地建立我国的石油储备制度,分步建立和完善符合我国国情的石油储备体系。     

国内成品油价格改革现状、问题和思路

本文首先对我国成品油价格改革的历史进行回顾,在此基础上对目前国内成品油价格形成机制存在的主要问题进行分析,归纳起来发现在国内外价格变动存在时间滞后性、在价格调整方法上利于投机、与国内市场供求关系脱节、调价频率缺乏透明度、价格改革缺乏协调性和同质不同价等问题。在分析问题的基础上,对近期和远期国内成品油价格改革提出思路,明确了指导方针和基本原则,并提出具体改革建议。     

Optimal drawdown patterns for strategic petroleum reserves

An optimization model is described for determining optimal drawdown trajectories for strategic petroleum reserves during an embargo. Development of the model includes the derivation of a GNP response function which relates GNP (used as a measure of social welfare) and crude oil supply reductions. Two alternative forms of this function are used with the model. Simple algorithms are presented which give rapid solutions for the model.     

Electrification of offshore petroleum installations with offshore wind integration

Electric power supply to oil and gas platforms is conventionally provided by gas turbines located on the platforms. As these gas turbines emit considerable amounts of CO₂ and NO_x, it is desirable to find alternative solutions. One alternative is to feed the platforms from the onshore power system via subsea power cables, which already have been implemented on some platforms in the Norwegian part of the North Sea. The paper studies a cluster of petroleum installations in this geographic area, connected to the Norwegian onshore power system through an HVDC voltage link. In the study, an offshore wind farm is also connected to the offshore AC power system. The main focus is investigation of transient stability in the offshore power system, and several fault cases have been studied for different levels of wind power generation.Simulations show that faults on the offshore converter platform can be critical due to the dependency of the reactive power delivered by the HVDC link to the offshore AC system. However, it is shown that local wind power production matching the offshore power demand will improve both voltage- and frequency-stability. Further on, it is indicated that offshore reactive power injections or alternative wind farm control topologies could improve voltage stability offshore.     

我国煤液化燃料替代石化能源的开发与应用

本文介绍了我国石油能源供需紧张状况,煤液化燃料的开发及替代能源应用现状。开发煤液化燃料产品,构建能源多元化结构,势在必行。     

石油和化学工业能源的节约和有效利用规划(一)

我国经济的持续和快速发展推动了能源需求。能源供应量的限制及环境形势的日益严重,促使我们必须加强能源的节约和有效利用。石油和化学工业是国民经济的重要支柱产业,同时,能源消耗总量在我国能源消耗总量中所占比重较高。因此,对石油和化学工业能源的节约和有效利用进行规划是非常必要的。本文从企业、化学工业区、区域和国家等层面探讨了进行能源的节约和有效利用值得关注和需要解决的问题。     

世界石油供应板块地缘格局及重心迁移的驱动力机制研究

本文论述了当前中东、中亚和俄罗斯、非洲、北美和中南美等石油供应基地的资源储量、生产和出口现状以及石油供应板块地缘政治格局;回顾了石油供应板块重心由墨西哥湾(北美)迁移到波斯湾(中东)的历史过程;分析了造成石油供应板块重心迁移的自然、科技、经济、政治、军事和非传统安全等驱动力因子及其驱动力机制,得出了以下结论:经过一个半世纪演变形成的以中东为中心,包括中亚、非洲在内的世界石油供应板块,成为大国争夺的焦点地区。目前的石油供应板块地缘格局是自然、经济、政治等多种因素作用下演进的结果,今后还将继续演进。这一研究对经济正在高速增长、石油消费对外依存度不断提高、石油安全形势面临严峻挑战的中国来说,具有重要而深远的意义。     

中国油气资源现状及发展建议

目前我国是仅次于美国的第二大石油消费国，2006年石油对外依存度已达47％左右。随着国民经济的高速增长，油气供求缺口还在不断增大，因此保障石油供应安全对我国经济的稳定发展有着至关重要的意义。对我国石油工业的现状进行了系统阐述，并对替代能源的发展进行了分析。最后从能源安全的角度把我国与国外的现状进行了对比，结合我国实情，提出了油气资源的发展战略建议。     

Transportation: meeting the dual challenges of achieving energy security and reducing greenhouse gas emissions

As the population and economy continue to grow globally, demand for energy will continue to grow. The transportation sector relies solely on petroleum for its energy supply. The United States and China are the top two oil-importing countries. A major issue both countries face and are addressing is energy insecurity as a result of the demand for liquid fuels. Improvements in the energy efficiency of vehicles and the substitution of petroleum fuels with alternative fuels can help contain growth in the demand for transportation oil. Although most alternative transportation fuels — when applied to advanced vehicle technologies — can substantially reduce greenhouse emissions, coal-based liquid fuels may increase greenhouse gas emissions by twice as much as gasoline. Such technologies as carbon capture and storage may need to be employed to manage the greenhouse gas emissions of coal-based fuels. At present, there is no ideal transportation fuel option to solve problems related to transportation energy and greenhouse gas emissions. To solve these problems, research and development efforts are needed for a variety of transportation fuel options and advanced vehicle technologies.     

Demand projections of petroleum products and natural gas in India

Indian economy has moved into a dynamic phase. It is necessary to see how energy demand will grow in this phase. In this paper, econometric models are developed for the various petroleum products separately with the aim of capturing variables that are specific to the individual fuel. This study projects the demand of fuels up to 2011–2012, end period for the 11th Five Year Plan, under two scenarios of annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 6% and 8%. The demand of petroleum products for the year 2011–2012 is estimated to be 147 and 162 million tons in the business as usual scenario of 6% and optimistic scenario of 8% GDP growth, respectively. Similarly, the demand of natural gas for the year 2011–2012 has been estimated to be 46 and 49 billion cubic meters for 6% and 8% growth, respectively. The projections suggest the level of preparedness that will be required from the oil and gas sector to enable India achieve the GDP growth target that it aims to.     

Palm-based biofuel refinery (PBR) to substitute petroleum refinery: An energy and emergy assessment

As the most active palm industry cluster in the world, Malaysia produces enormous amount of biomass from the industry. This work studies the possibility of creating a renewable and sustainable source of energy by fully utilizing an area of land to provide liquid biofuel for the country. Palm-based biofuel refinery (PBR) proposed in this study has the ultimate goal to displace petroleum fuels and fulfill domestic energy demand. It fully utilizes indigenous palm biomass to fulfill 35.5% of energy demand in the country by using land area of only 8% of current palm cultivation. The operation concept of PBR is similar to petroleum refinery in which a single source feedstock (crude petroleum) can be processed to multiple products. In PBR, products from an oil palm plantation will be converted to various biofuel end products. Renewable biofuel such as biodiesel and bioethanol can be produced from crude palm oil and lignocellulosic residues. Energy and emergy assessment were made in this work to evaluate the sustainability and efficiency of PBR. Biofuel produced from PBR has a high energy equivalent of 31.56 MJ/kg as 1 ha of land can produce 182,142 MJ annually. Although there are still obstacles to be overcome, it is important for Malaysia to develop its own energy supply from indigenous resources as an initiative not only for security but also lower carbon emission.     

石油供求关系回顾与展望

2005年,全球经济增长带动了石油需求的增加,而原油产量增长有限,加上炼制能力和飓风及政治突发事件等影响,石油价格暴涨。2006年的国际石油供求形势和油价走势,既有促降因素,也有促升因素,还有飓风恢复和政治等不确定因素。总的来说,世界石油需求继续增加,市场更显紧张;油价取决于需求增幅的大小和产能建设的速度,总体水平应该是每桶50～60美元。     

Estimating the agricultural demand for natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas in the presence of measurement error in the data

The paper begins by discussing the importance of accurate estimates of the price elasticity of demand and some of the problems frequently encountered in obtaining these estimates. To these problems is added that associated with inaccuracy in the measurement of the dependent variable and one or more of the independent variables that affect the quantity demanded. Two diagnostics, i.e. the regression coefficient bounds and the bias correction factor, have been introduced to assess the effect that such measurement error has on the estimated coefficients of demand relationships. The use of these diagnostics will aid in assessing the integrity of the estimates obtained. In considering the demand for natural gas and the demand for liquefied petroleum gas by farmers in the USA, both the quantity demanded and the price data available for demand model estimation purposes contain measurement error. The regression coefficient bounds diagnostic was used to indicate a range over which the true price responsiveness of farmers to changes in energy prices lies. The results suggest that each 1% increase (decrease) in the price of energy will result in a decrease (increase) of between 0.41 and 0.17% in the quantity of natural gas demanded and a decrease (increase) of between 0.48 and 0.07% in the quantity of liquefied petroleum gas demanded. The bias correction factor was computed to evaluate the magnitude of the underestimation of the responsiveness of the quantity of natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas demanded to a change in the number of acres irrigated. For natural gas, the under-estimation was 26.5%, whereas, for liquefied petroleum gas, it was 9.5%.     

液化石油气发动机的性能及故障特征

分析了液化石油气（LPG）作为发动机燃料时的特点，以及LPG－汽油双燃料发动机的性能特点和实用化技术，介绍LPG发动机的发展状况，对LPG－汽油双燃料发动机的故障特征作探讨，针对此类双燃料发动机的技术调整和改进方面提出了观点。     

Substitution of petroleum products in Brazil Urgent issues

Brazilian energy policy in recent years has focused on curbing demand for imported petroleum by fostering conservation and substitution with domestic energy resources. These measures have resulted in substantial surpluses of both gasoline and fuel oil, thereby weakening the case for continued subsidization of alternatives to those fuels. The pace of oil substitution must be revised and policies reassessed. The areas deserving the highest priority are the cost and productivity of ethanol (alcohol fuel) production, electricity tariffs, motor fuel policy, and the role of fuel oil in industrial energy demand.     

国际石油市场供求格局正在发生结构性变化

从供给和需求两个方面对国际石油市场格局变化进行了分析。在供给方面,探讨了石油探明储量、产能以及产油主体政策调整等因素的影响。主要观点是:石油储量虽然满足未来数10年的世界石油需求,但探明储量增速明显放缓;世界石油产能增长缓慢,导致剩余产能严重不足;产油主体政策调整进一步制约了产能的增长。在需求方面,探讨了世界经济形势、高油价、能源利用效率、替代能源等因素的影响。主要观点是:世界经济保持较快增长,特别是随着发展中国家工业化程度加深,导致石油需求增长迅速;高油价对世界经济的冲击明显减轻,难以改变石油需求快速增长的趋势;由于石油消费集中在运输领域,节能对减少世界石油需求效果有限;高油价虽能推动替代能源的发展,但石油仍将长期保持主体能源地位。通过供需两方面分析,指出当前世界市场石油供需格局正在发生结构性变化,油价将长期在高位波动。     

Determinants of import demand for non-renewable energy (petroleum) products: Empirical evidence from Nigeria

This study estimated determinants of import demand for refined petroleum products in Nigeria for the period 1984–2013. It employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test cointegration method and analysed both long-run and short-run determinants of import demand for total and specific petroleum products.In the long-run, aggregate and sectoral incomes are significant determinants of import of refined kerosene. Further, real effective exchange rate (REER), aggregate income (GDP), manufacturing sector's income, domestic energy production (DEP) and population growth rate (PGR) are drivers of import of refined motor spirit Moreover, REER, DEP and manufacturing sector's income are propellers of import of refined distillate fuel. Also, REER and total output of petroleum products are major drivers of total import of refined petroleum products.Short-run results show that previous period GDP, PGR and manufacturing and service sectors' incomes are determinants of import demand for refined kerosene. Moreover, REER, GDP, previous PGR and manufacturing sector's income exert significant effects on the import of refined motor spirit. Further, significant effects of REER, DEP, previous PGR, domestic output of the product and manufacturing and service sectors' incomes on the import demand for distillate fuel were found.Policy implications of the foregoing are articulated in the paper.     

Assessment of CO2 emissions and its reduction potential in the Korean petroleum refining industry using energy-environment models

We assessed potential future CO₂ reduction in the Korean petroleum refining industry by investigating five new technologies for energy savings and CO₂ mitigation using a hybrid SD-LEAP model: crude oil distillation units (CDU), vacuum distillation units (VDU), light gas-oil hydro-desulfurization units (LGO HDS), and the vacuum residue hydro-desulfurization (VR HDS) process. The current and future demand for refining industry products in Korea was estimated using the SD model. The required crude oil input amounts are expected to increase from 139 million tons in 2008 to 154 million tons in 2030 in the baseline scenario. The current and future productivity of the petroleum refining industry was predicted, and this prediction was substituted into the LEAP model which analyzed energy consumption and CO₂ emissions from the refining processes in the BAU scenario. We expect that new technology and alternative scenarios will reduce CO₂ emissions by 0.048% and 0.065% in the national and industrial sectors, respectively.