Oil price pass-through along the price chain in the euro area

This paper analyzes how oil price shocks are transmitted downstream to producer and consumer prices in the euro area at the highest disaggregate level. In doing so, we first generate an appropriate database that identifies each industrial production sector with its corresponding price of consumer goods for the euro area. We next estimate a constrained vector autoregressive model. Our findings show a statistically significant increase in producer prices after an oil price shock for branches with high oil consumption, although this statistical pass-through is only partial. However, there is no evidence of a significant oil price pass-through to consumer prices for most branches, which suggests the adaptability of European producers from the most branches to higher oil price pressures without transmitting them to consumers (exceptions: chemical and metal).     

Solar power subsidization

We provide a theoretical basis in microeconomic theory upon which to compare and contrast the role that subsidization has played in the past, vs the role it should play now and in the future, when a choice between fossil-fuel energy sources (oil, coal, gas) and solar energy is considered. Our model involves applications of nonlinear programming and control theory. The basic concept used is the production possibilities frontier (Transformation Curve). The major conclusion is that an energy policy for the 1980s requires a substantial reversal of the historical pattern of subsidy policy as it has evolved over the last 50 yr. The current U.S. plan to allow termination of producer and consumer solar power subsidies is questionable because of environmental impacts of fossil-fuel utilization.     

Energy in the USA after the President''s messages… Changes in investment and balance of payments

Mr Simon looks at the energy problems of the USA up to 1980 from the vantage point of the Treasury Department and the Oil Policy Committee. In particular, he examines how present difficulties arose and what will be the impact of the President's new proposals on further exploration and development for oil production, on refinery construction, and on balance of payments. He is optimistic that with major efforts the USA will be able to regain its former self-sufficiency in energy.     

俄罗斯油气资源开发及出口贸易进展述评

俄罗斯是世界油气大国,拥有丰富的石油天然气自然资源,集中了全球1/3的天然气和12%的石油资源,油气勘探开发已有140多年的历史,在世界石油格局中占有举足轻重的地位。2009年,俄罗斯石油产量4.94×108t,天然气产量5560×108m3,高居世界榜首;石油(含凝析气)出口量为2.474×108t。近20年来俄罗斯一直保持着100%的石油储量替代率,2005年以来每年发现的新增石油储量均超过当年产量。俄天然气工业保持着完整统一的经营体制,俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)生产的天然气占俄天然气总产量的80%以上,从而使全国天然气产量基本保持稳定。俄原油出口贸易2/3在欧洲,其次是独联体等国家。石油出口50%以上靠油轮海运,1/3靠管道输送,靠铁路运送的不到出口总量的5%。成品油和石化深加工等高附加值产品的出口在能源出口中的比例将不断增加。鉴于亚太地区石油市场的庞大以及俄罗斯的能源外交战略,今后亚太市场将是俄石油出口的重点研究方向。俄罗斯《2010～2030年国家石油天然气工业经济发展长期规划》对俄本国、欧亚和世界能源市场的发展将产生重要的影响。     

The role of non conventional oil in the attenuation of peak oil

In this paper, the possible substitution of conventional with non conventional oil is studied using system dynamics models. The model proposed in this paper is based on geological, economic and technological aspects, and it fits approximately the behaviour observed by Hubbert. A first validation of the model has been made with the USA oil production data. These USA data show that there is a good coincidence between our model and the reality. This model has been expanded in order to include the substitution of the conventional oil with the non conventional one for the World. Two models with different ways to treat the contribution of non conventional oil have been developed and tested: a base model (business as usual), which extrapolates the last two decades’ growth of this type of oil into the future, and a model that explores how much non conventional oil would be needed in order to avoid a peak and decrease in the global non renewable fuel production. The results show that, even under some hypotheses that we consider optimistic, the attenuation of the peak oil decline requires more than 10% of sustained growth of non conventional oil production over at least the next two decades.     

A study on the future of unconventional oil development under different oil price scenarios: A system dynamics approach

Fluctuations in the oil global market has been a critical topic for the world economy so that analyzing and forecasting the conventional oil production rate has been examined by many researchers thoroughly. However, the dynamics of the market has not been studied systematically with regard to the new emerging competitors, namely unconventional oil. In this paper, the future trend of conventional and unconventional oil production and capacity expansion rates are analyzed using system dynamics approach. To do so, a supply-side modeling approach is utilized while main effective loops are modeled mathematically as follows: technological learning and progress, long and short-term profitability of oil capacity expansion and production, and oil proved reserve limitations. The proposed model is used to analyze conventional and unconventional oil production shares, up to 2025, under different oil price scenarios. The results show that conventional oil production rate ranges from 79.995 to 87.044 MB/day, which is 75–80 percent of total oil production rate, while unconventional oil production rate ranges from 19.615 to 28.584 MB/day. Simulation results reveal that unconventional oil can gain a considerable market share in the short run, although conventional oil will remain as the major source for the market in the long run.     

中东战争低价石油及其中国的对策

无论美国伊拉克能否开战,中东的紧张局势都会令石油市场引发新的动荡,加上非欧佩克国家石油生产能力迅猛增长,全球环境因素和市场供求关系等因素的共同作用,将使国际石油市场很可能出现低于＄20的价格。由于我国的石油天然气的生产和发现成本远远高于国际平均水平,多年来国际市场高昂的石油价格撑托着我国石油产业生存空间。低价石油时代的来临会对我国能源产业生存造成威胁。中国能源产业需要改变生存方式,降低成本,而现存能源管理机制不能适应全球化市场竞争和应对低价石油冲击的能力,目前,需寻找新的思路,选择新的策略,能源产业才能走出两难处境,才能确保国家的能源安全。这有待我们用全新的战略和对策做出回答。     

Natural gas development in Egypt

So far, hydrocarbons are the main source of energy in Egypt, and they will remain so for many decades to come. This is why a great deal of emphasis is given to oil and gas exploration and production activities. Though oil has been known since the sixties of the last century and has been in production since 1909, gas has been discovered in commercial quantities only since March 1967. Since then, three gas discoveries have been put into production and others are still under evaluation. Good gas potentialities seem to exist in different parts of basins in the country. In order to boost exploration efforts, new terms have been introduced, both as amendments to old agreements and also for inclusion in new agreements. These terms include provisions for maintaining a national gas reserve for the country, while allowing for gas liquefaction for export, as well as for compensation for the gas reserves devoted to establishment of the national gas reserve.     

Paleogene petroleum possibilities in the Philippines

Recent deep offshore drillings and detailed onshore geological studies have increased the importance of the Paleogene section of the Philippines as a possible hydrocarbon producer. Geochemistry of source rocks, shows, and production tests from this horizon indicates the generation of oil and gas. Isotopic analysis shows no correlation between the oil now being produced in reservoirs of Lower Miocene age, and the contemporaneous shale, a potential source rock, thus suggesting deeper, older sections as the possible source. In the past, exploration has been focused on Neogene reservoirs and source rocks and has resulted in very modest success. It is anticipated that the present inclination of explorationists to test the Paleogene section will lead to more definitive data and economic discoveries.     

Potential impacts of electricity price changes on price formation in the economy: a social accounting matrix price modeling analysis for Turkey

Recent reforms in the Turkish electricity sector since 2001 aim to introduce a tariff system that reflects costs. This is expected to affect the production and consumer prices of electricity. The changes in electricity prices are then reflected in production costs in other segments of the economy. Subsequently, producer and consumer prices will be affected. The potential impact of the changes in electricity prices that the ongoing electricity reforms in Turkey will bring about may have important implications on the price formation in economic activities and the cost of living for households. This paper evaluates the potential impacts of changes in electricity prices from a social accounting matrix (SAM) price modeling perspective. It is found that based on the estimated price multipliers that prices in the energy-producing sectors, mining, and iron and steel manufacturing sectors would be affected more severely than the remaining sectors of the economy. Consumer prices are affected slightly less than producer prices.     

Oil production,resource movement effects,and macroeconomic adjustment

The paper is concerned with simulating the macroeconomic adjustment processes arising in a small open economy experiencing a temporary period of oil production. In a recent paper, Harvie conducted a similar exercise for an economy in which the spending effect arising from such oil production dominated the resource movement effect. That paper concluded that the wage adjustment processes operative were important in influencing the macroeconomic adjustment process arising. Specifically, that paper concluded that wage indexation was preferable during the period of oil production, but that de-indexation was preferable in the post oil production period. Although, in the present paper, the principles underlying the simulated model are the same as in Harvie, the emphasis here is placed on the resource movement consequences arising from temporary oil production. The major conclusion identified is that wages policy is still important in influencing the macroeconomic adjustment processes identified. However, a difference arises not in regard to the profile of that adjustment but rather in its magnitude. The paper emphasizes, in particular, developments in non-oil output, consumer prices, and the stock of domestically held foreign assets. The simulation results suggest that, where the resource movement effect dominates, it would be preferable to de-index wages during the period of oil production and index wages in the post oil production period. Hence wages policy should be regarded as an important component of a government's policy response arising from a period of temporary oil production, irrespective of whether the resource movement or spending effect dominates. However, what that policy response should be would depend on the relative importance of either effect.     

提高采收率技术矿场应用进展与发展方向

通过对不同国家提高采收率技术(EOR)应用情况进行分析、统计,了解提高采收率技术的应用状况和发展趋势。2014年,世界EOR产量约为46.1×104m3/d,约占世界产油量的3.3%。稠油热采、气驱和化学驱技术是世界工业化应用的三大提高采收率技术。其中,稠油热采技术相对成熟,应用规模最大,其产量接近世界EOR产量的一半;气驱和化学驱技术发展较快,应用规模不断扩大,其产量约占世界EOR产量的四分之一。在高油价下,提高采收率技术得到更为广泛的关注,多个国家都重视新技术、新方法的研究与试验。美国、中国、加拿大、委内瑞拉和俄罗斯是提高采收率技术应用规模较大的5个国家,中国的化学驱和稠油热采技术及应用规模居世界前列,已成为提高采收率技术应用大国。适应苛刻油藏条件的驱油剂、驱油体系和流度控制技术,是制约提高采收率技术工业化应用的瓶颈;不同成熟技术的组合应用将是提高采收率技术的发展方向。     

Energy resource development and the British economy: A review

The last decade or so has seen major changes in the structure of the UK economy. There has been a continual decline in manufacturing, both relatively (not unique to the UK) as well as absolutely (unique to the UK of all the major industrialized economies), while the discovery and exploitation of oil in the North Sea has moved the UK from a position of total dependence on imported oil, through self sufficiency, to its becoming a significant net exporter. Such oil developments have occurred against the background of two major oil price increases, in 1973/74 and 1979/80, which have also had major implications not only for the UK but also for its trading partners. The accelerated decline of the traditional manufacturing industries, and the associated rise in unemployment, to many observers, is at least partly a result of the emergence of the UK as a major oil producer. The theoretical justification for such a viewpoint is identified. This paper is predominantly concerned with outlining the importance of oil and gas production to the UK economy. It also discusses the major theoretical models that have been developed to analyse both the short run and long run impact of oil on that economy. A quantitative assessment is made of the impact of oil on the UK economy, and of the role of the Government arising from such a discovery.     

中国燃料油市场现状与展望

随着我国经济的进一步发展和炼油深加工能力的大幅提高,以及国家政策的不断调整,我国燃料油供需结构发生明显变化。我国燃料油消费主要集中在船用燃料油、炼化原料深加工,化工、建材和轻工行业,以及电力、制造等领域。近年来,船用燃料油连续多年成为我国最大的燃料油用户,2012年占同期消费总量的49%;其次是炼化行业燃料油需求,主要用于地方炼厂的加工原料,占消费总量的40%;建材和轻工行业等工业燃料油,占消费总量的11%;而工业与电力行业的燃料油需求持续萎缩,市场份额逐年下降,特别是电力行业,2012年燃料油消费量仅为30×104t左右,占比不足1%。未来,受燃料油消费结构因素影响,我国燃料油消费仍主要集中在船用油与炼化行业两大板块。受消费税新政实施的影响,尽管中国原油一次加工能力连年提高,但燃料油产出率或将长期维持在较低水平。需求方面,预计未来几年,原料深加工用燃料油仍是燃料油消费的主力军;工业用燃料油的需求仍将呈现继续下滑的趋势;船用燃料油的需求将稳步上升,其价格有继续走高的可能。     

System dynamics model of Hubbert Peak for China's oil

 American geophysicist M. King Hubbert in 1956 first introduced a logistic equation to estimate the peak and lifetime production for oil of USA. Since then, a fierce debate ensued on the so-called Hubbert Peak, including also its methodology. This paper proposes to use the generic STELLA model to simulate Hubbert Peak, particularly for the Chinese oil production. This model is demonstrated as being robust. We used three scenarios to estimate the Chinese oil peak: according to scenario 1 of this model, the Hubbert Peak for China's crude oil production appears to be in 2019 with a value of 199.5 million tonnes, which is about 1.1 times the 2005 output. Before the peak comes, Chinese oil output will grow by about 1–2% annually, after the peak, however, the output will fall. By 2040, the annual production of Chinese crude oil would be equivalent to the level of 1990. During the coming 20 years, the crude oil demand of China will probably grow at the rate of 2–3% annually, and the gap between domestic supply and total demand may be more than half of this demand.     

Can expanded exploration lower oil prices?

We suggest that the oil-exporting nations can be divided into two main groups: “profit maximizers” who require their oil revenues for domestic development and “optional producers” who can forego export revenues for considerable periods. A substantial part of the cartel's market power derives from the ability of the optional producers to withstand loss of income. The consuming nations have no equivalent ability to withstand supply cuts.If all oil exports were supplied by profit maximizers, it is likely that supply security would be greater and prices lower. Profit maximizers do not have as much market power because their need for revenues is symmetrical with the consuming nations' need for oil. Consequently, it appears to be in the consuming nations' interests to restructure the oil trade so that profit maximizers account for a larger share and optional producers a lesser share.To accomplish this, additional supplies of oil must be found. Recent experience suggests that the best oil targets are not in the consuming countries, but, rather, in Third World countries. There is some question about whether or not these resources will be developed.Oil companies, the traditional explorers, may be reluctant to accept the financial risks. If after careful examination it is concluded that exploration will remain underfunded, it may be in the consuming nations' interests to sponsor exploration abroad. Greater supply security will follow from diversification of supplies; lower prices will follow from augmented production confronting inelastic demand.     

The political economy of OPEC

We develop a conceptual model that captures OPEC pricing behavior, and apply it to explain the large gap observed between domestic fuel prices in OPEC countries and prices in the rest of the world. We model OPEC as a cartel of nations, not firms, and assume that politicians use two instruments: production quotas and domestic fuel consumption subsidies. The cartel-of-nations model suggests that introduction of alternatives to petroleum products may lead OPEC to reduce exports and increase domestic fuel consumption. The empirical analysis suggests that when OPEC sets production quotas, it places similar weights on consumer and producer surplus. But when OPEC countries set domestic fuel subsidies, on average 6% more weight is given to consumer surplus with some of the OPEC countries pursuing very aggressive domestic cheap fuel policies.     

Energy and development policies in Iran: a Western view

Iran, at present the fourth largest oil producer after the USA, the USSR and Saudi Arabia, was the first oil state to move against domination by a major foreign oil company. Professor de Carmoy traces the rapid economic expansion of Iran made possible by a well-planned consistent and highly successful national energy policy.     

中国油气资源发展现状面临的问题和对策

进入20世纪90年代以来,我国石油储量呈现高基值稳定增长态势,年均新增石油可采储量1.5亿t左右,产量稳步上升。预测新区储量增长将持续稳定;全国产量将持续稳定。最新初步评价结果,中国天然气最终探明天然气可采资源量14万亿m3左右。目前我国天然气储量高速增长,产量快速上升,但勘探尚处于早期阶段。预计我国天然气储量还将快速稳步增长。到2020年底我国天然气可采储量将达到5.6万亿m3,探明程度为40％。产量还将快速增长,国内天然气产量2010年达到800亿m3,2020年达到1200亿m3。通过多年的努力,我国油气科技也获得了长足的发展,有力的促进了储量的增长。在油气储量高速增长的同时,我国的油气发展也面临的一系列问题。针对这些问题,笔者提出了若干中国油气可持续发展的思路,包括加大勘探力度,发展前陆盆地、大型古隆起、大型地层岩性带、隐蔽油气藏和海域等领域;加快天然气发展,改善能源结构;扩大国际交流与合作;发展非常规资源,鼓励利用替代能源;采取严厉的节能措施等。通过这些措施的实施,我国石油天然气工业将可持续的发展。