Monitoring urban transport air pollution and energy demand in Rawalpindi and Islamabad using leap model

A research associated with urban transportation was carried out in Rawalpindi and Islamabad to analyze the status of emission of air pollutants and energy demands. The study included a discussion of past trends and future scenarios in order to reduce the future emissions. A simple model of passenger transport has been developed using computer based software called Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP). The LEAP model was used to estimate total energy demand and the vehicular emissions for the base year 2000 and extrapolated till 2030 for the future predictions. Transport database in Rawalpindi and Islamabad, together with fuel consumption values for the vehicle types and emission factors of NO_x, SO₂ and PM₁₀ corresponding to the actual vehicle types, formed the basis of the transport demand, energy consumption and total emission calculations. Apart from base scenario, the model was run under three alternative scenarios to study the impact of different urban transport policy initiatives that would reduce energy demand and emissions in transport sector of Rawalpindi and Islamabad. The prime objective was to arrive at an optimal transport policy, which limits the future growth of fuel consumption as well as air pollution.     

基于LEAP模型的广州交通领域能耗及空气污染物排放分析

基于长期能源替代规划系统(LEAP)模型,结合情景分析法,模拟广州交通领域未来的能耗及CO、HC、NOx、PM2.5、SO2等主要空气污染物排放趋势,分析广州交通领域的节能及空气污染物排放控制策略.结果表明:综合情景下,到2035年,广州交通领域将较基准情景节能23.06％,CO、HC、NOx、PM2.5、SO2分别减...     

Energy-related emissions and mitigation opportunities from the household sector in Delhi

Urban centers are the major consumers of energy, which is a major source of air pollution. Therefore, an insight into energy consumption and quantification of emissions from urban areas are extremely important for identifying impacts and finding solution to air pollution in urban centers. This paper applies the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system for modeling the total energy consumption and associated emissions from the household sector of Delhi. Energy consumption under different sets of policy and technology options are analyzed for a time span of 2001–2021 and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH₄), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), nitrous oxide (N₂O), total suspended particulates (TSP) and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) are estimated. Different scenarios are generated to examine the level of pollution reduction achievable by application of various options. The business as usual (BAU) scenario is developed considering the time series trends of energy use in Delhi households. The fuel substitution (FS) scenario analyzes policies having potential to impact fuel switching and their implications towards reducing emissions. The energy conservation (EC) scenario focuses on efficiency improvement technologies and policies for energy-intensity reduction. An integrated (INT) scenario is also generated to assess the cumulative impact of the two alternate scenarios on energy consumption and direct emissions from household sectors of Delhi. Maximum reduction in energy consumption in households of Delhi is observed in the EC scenario, whereas, the FS scenario seems to be a viable option if the emission loadings are to be reduced.     

Mitigation potential of greenhouse gas emission and implications on fuel consumption due to clean energy vehicles as public passenger transport in Kathmandu Valley of Nepal: A case study of trolley buses in Ring Road

This paper estimates the consequences in fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emission due to the possible intervention of the electric run trolley buses in the existing public transport system in a particular road up to the year 2025 in Kathmandu Valley. It projects the scenarios on the basis that the passenger travel demand is the function of population and income. Basically, it uses the Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System software to develop Business as Usual scenario and the five alternative scenarios. The alternative scenarios are 100% replacement of vehicles catering to mass-transit in the concerned routes, 50% replacement, 25% replacement, stopping future growth of other vehicles catering to mass-transit in the concerned routes and 25% replacement in the first year, and combination scenarios. The results estimate that the passenger travel demand will increase by three folds from the year 2003 to the year 2025. It projects the three-fold increase of the existing vehicle activity by the year 2025 in Business as Usual scenario. The fuel consumption will increase by 2.4 times compared to the year 2003. It estimates the total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission as 8.5 thousands tons in year 2003 which will increase by more than 3 times in year 2025. It estimates that 174.3 thousands t CO₂e can be avoided in combination scenario. The paper concludes that the intervention of clean energy transport in the existing public transport can have a significant positive impact on the GHG emission and current fuel consumption.     

Transport demand,harmful emissions,environment and health co-benefits in China

The Chinese residents' travel demand has been increasing dramatically. As a result, emissions from motor vehicles have been found as one main source of air pollution in China, which consequently influences the residents' health. To better understand the environmental deterioration and health losses caused by the transport sector in China, in current circumstances, one must know how the changes in residents' travel demand and alternative transport modes affect environment and health co-benefits in China. We first of all calculate the demand from nearly all the residents' travel means, including road, rail, water, and air transport. Besides, based on the results, this paper further makes projections for a business-as-usual scenario for 2050 with several alternative transport scenarios to reduce harmful emissions and improve the welfare of the residents' health in China. Our integrated framework includes the harmful emissions models, the fixed box model and the exposure-response models, to link transport demand with possible environmental and health outcomes. The findings suggest that significant environment and health co-benefits are possible if alternative transport replaces. This research, to the best of our knowledge, is the first attempt to estimate the total resident's travel demand under different scenarios and the consequent environment and health co-benefits in the transitional China.     

Fuel conservation and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet

Passenger vehicles are the main consumers of gasoline in China. We established a bottom-up model which focuses on the simulation of energy consumptions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions growth by China’s passenger vehicle fleet. The fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation effects of five measures including constraining vehicle registration, reducing vehicle travel, strengthening fuel consumption rate (FCR) limits, vehicle downsizing and promoting electric vehicle (EV) penetration were evaluated. Based on the combination of these measures, the fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet were analyzed. Under reference scenario with no measures implemented, the fuel consumptions and life cycle GHG emissions will reach 520 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) and 2.15 billion tons in 2050, about 8.1 times the level in 2010. However, substantial fuel conservation can be achieved by implementing the measures. By implementing all five measures together, the fuel consumption will reach 138 Mtoe in 2030 and decrease to 126 Mtoe in 2050, which is only 37.1% and 24.3% of the consumption under reference scenario. Similar potential lies in GHG mitigation. The results and scenarios provided references for the Chinese government’s policy-making.     

A review on emissions and mitigation strategies for road transport in Malaysia

The emissions from road transport are serious threats to urban air quality and global warming. The first step to develop effective policies is to determine the source and amount of emissions produced. This paper attempts to review emissions from road transport using COPERT 4 model and examined possible emission mitigation strategies. In road transport, results have show that passenger cars are the main cause of CO₂, N₂O and CO emissions, while motorcycles are main source of hydrocarbon (HC) emissions. However, light duty vehicles and heavy duty vehicles are the main contribution of particulate matters. The total CO₂ equivalent emissions for road transport in Malaysia are 59,383.51 ktonnes for year 2007. Further results show that CO₂ emission is the primary source of greenhouse gas pollution which is 71% of the total CO₂ equivalent. A parametric study was conducted to estimate the potential emission mitigation strategies for road transport by taking the emissions in 2007 as a reference year. It was observed that promoting the public transport is an effective strategy to reduce emissions and fuel consumption from the technical view point. It can totally save up to 1044 ktonnes of fuel consumption and total CO₂ equivalents emissions can be decreased by 7%. It was noted that, fleet renewal and promoting natural gas vehicles will significantly contribute in the reduction of emissions in Malaysia.     

Global passenger travel: implications for carbon dioxide emissions

Humans spend, on average, a constant fraction of their time and expenditure on travel. These and a few other constraints allow a new model for projecting regional and world travel, which we use to develop a scenario for carbon emissions from passenger transport. Globally, carbon emissions rise from 0.8 GtC in 1990 to 2.7 GtC in 2050. In every industrialized region aircraft and high-speed trains become the dominant mode; unable to satisfy the rising demand for mobility within a fixed travel time budget, automobile travel declines by 2050. Passenger transport carbon emissions stabilize by 2020 without any further policy intervention. But in developing countries automobile travel is still rising and becomes the dominant source of carbon dioxide from passenger transport. Fear of global warming may require stabilization of these emissions by mid-century. We show that without some action to accelerate an improvement in energy efficiency starting in the next decade, the goal of stabilization is a technically impossible task, unless zero-carbon technologies become available.     

Impact of hydrogen fueled hypersonic airliners on the O3 layer depletion

The promising opportunity to reach intercontinental long distances in a few hours is a remarkable issue for both private companies and public organizations: teams of scientists, technicians and researchers in Europe, USA, China, Russia and India are working at national and international programs on long range high speed civil transport. The Space X's CEO also announced, at the IAC 2017 conference, the growing interest in developing a 30-min transatlantic passenger flight by means of a 2-stage rocket-based vehicle. Meeting the dwell requirement of antipodal ranges and high speeds is realistic through a new era of hydrogen-fuelled hypersonic airbreathing vehicles. The interest in hydrogen as aviation fuel has recently increased not only due to the growth of worldwide air travel and time reduction requirements, also for the dramatic rise of common aviation fuel prices, and the continuously increasing restrictive environmental issues.In the light of these changes that have occurred in fuel prices, emissions reduction imperatives and the currently higher demand for supersonic airline travels, hydrogen-fuelled hypersonic airbreathing airliners are a valuable chance with respect to other means of transport (i.e., a rocked based passenger transport). In fact, hydrogen is one of the most environmental friendly fuels, since no particulate and carbon oxide emissions are produced. Past objections on hydrogen as fuel for civil transport, such as safety, liquefying and storing hydrogen are now overcame and its technological maturity opens a large worldwide market for hydrogen as “green” fuel. However, since the opportunity for hydrogen as fuel for future fleets of airline transport resides in its “green” peculiarity, the investigation of the impact of the H₂/air hot exhausts on the ozone layer depletion is mandatory. In fact, a lot of hypersonic cruise vehicles fly at an altitude of 25000–30000 m that corresponds to the ozonosphere. In this region, the concentration of ozone is maximum and NOx emissions may catalyse the ozone destruction.In this context, the goal of this paper is to estimate the effect of the H₂/air emissions (i.e., nitrogen oxides, hydroxide and water vapor) of a fleet of 200 hydrogen fuelled hypersonic airliners flying once a day for 360 days from Brussels to Sydney, on the ozone layer and on the global temperature increase.     

Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

In this paper the LEAP, TIAM-ECN, and GCAM models were applied to evaluate the impact of a variety of climate change control policies (including carbon pricing and emission constraints relative to a base year) on primary energy consumption, final energy consumption, electricity sector development, and CO₂ emission savings of the energy sector in Argentina over the 2010–2050 period. The LEAP model results indicate that if Argentina fully implements the most feasible mitigation measures currently under consideration by official bodies and key academic institutions on energy supply and demand, such as the ProBiomass program, a cumulative incremental economic cost of 22.8 billion US$(2005) to 2050 is expected, resulting in a 16% reduction in GHG emissions compared to a business-as-usual scenario. These measures also bring economic co-benefits, such as a reduction of energy imports improving the balance of trade. A Low CO₂ price scenario in LEAP results in the replacement of coal by nuclear and wind energy in electricity expansion. A High CO₂ price leverages additional investments in hydropower. By way of cross-model comparison with the TIAM-ECN and GCAM global integrated assessment models, significant variation in projected emissions reductions in the carbon price scenarios was observed, which illustrates the inherent uncertainties associated with such long-term projections. These models predict approximately 37% and 94% reductions under the High CO₂ price scenario, respectively. By comparison, the LEAP model, using an approach based on the assessment of a limited set of mitigation options, predicts an 11.3% reduction. The main reasons for this difference include varying assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO₂ storage capacity, and the ability to import bioenergy. An emission cap scenario (2050 emissions 20% lower than 2010 emissions) is feasible by including such measures as CCS and Bio CCS, but at a significant cost. In terms of technology pathways, the models agree that fossil fuels, in particular natural gas, will remain an important part of the electricity mix in the core baseline scenario. According to the models there is agreement that the introduction of a carbon price will lead to a decline in absolute and relative shares of aggregate fossil fuel generation. However, predictions vary as to the extent to which coal, nuclear and renewable energy play a role.     

Oil consumption and CO2 emissions in China's road transport: current status,future trends,and policy implications

With the rapid economic growth in China, the Chinese road transport system is becoming one of the largest and most rapidly growing oil consumers in China. This paper attempts to present the current status and forecast the future trends of oil demand and CO₂ emissions from the Chinese road transport sector and to explore possible policy measures to contain the explosive growth of Chinese transport oil consumption. A bottom-up model was developed to estimate the historical oil consumption and CO₂ emissions from China's road transport sector between 1997 and 2002 and to forecast future trends in oil consumption and CO₂ emissions up to 2030. To explore the importance of policy options of containing the dramatic growth in Chinese transport oil demand, three scenarios regarding motor vehicle fuel economy improvements were designed in predicting future oil use and CO₂ emissions. We conclude that China's road transportation will gradually become the largest oil consumer in China in the next two decades but that improvements in vehicle fuel economy have potentially large oil-saving benefits. In particular, if no control measures are implemented, the annual oil demand by China's road vehicles will reach 363 million tons by 2030. On the other hand, under the low- and high-fuel economy improvement scenarios, 55 and 85 million tons of oil will be saved in 2030, respectively. The scenario analysis suggests that China needs to implement vehicle fuel economy improvement measures immediately in order to contain the dramatic growth in transport oil consumption. The imminent implementation is required because (1) China is now in a period of very rapid growth in motor vehicle sales; (2) Chinese vehicles currently in the market are relatively inefficient; and (3) the turnover of a fleet of inefficient motor vehicles will take a long time.     

Analysis of CO2 emissions reduction in the Malaysian transportation sector: An optimisation approach

The demand for transport services is expected to rise, causing the CO₂ emissions level to increase as well. In Malaysia, the transportation sector accounts for 28% of total CO₂ emissions, of which 85% comes from road transport. By 2020, Malaysia is targeting a reduction in CO₂ emissions intensity by up to 40% and in this effort the role of road transport is paramount. This paper attempts to investigate effective policy options that can assist Malaysia in reducing the CO₂ emissions level. An Optimisation model is developed to estimate the potential CO₂ emissions mitigation strategies for road transport by minimising the CO₂ emissions under the constraint of fuel cost and demand travel. Several mitigation strategies have been applied to analyse the effect of CO₂ emissions reduction potential. The results demonstrate that removal of fuel price subsidies can result in reductions of up to 652 ktonnes of fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions can be decreased by 6.55%, which would enable Malaysia to hit its target by 2020. CO₂ emissions can be reduced significantly, up to 20%, by employing a combination of mitigation policies in Malaysia. This suggests that appropriate mitigation policies can assist the country in its quest to achieve the CO₂ emissions reduction target.     

Price and income elasticities of demand for passenger transport fuels in Spain. Implications for public policies

The significant increase in passenger transport activity (cars) experienced by Spain and its associated increase in energy consumption have several associated negative aspects, including a greater dependence on foreign energy sources and higher GHG emissions. Therefore, reducing the level of transport activity would bring important socioeconomic and environmental benefits. The aim of this paper, which focuses on energy consumption in the passenger transport, is fourfold: (1) to provide a diagnostic of energy consumption in the Spanish passenger transport system and the related problems; (2) to develop a model to calculate price and income elasticities of demand for transport fuel; (3) to apply this model to the Spanish passenger transport sector; (4) to infer policy recommendations derived from the results of the diagnostic and the model. It is claimed that, in view of those low price elasticities and high income elasticities and if a reduction in the scale of transport activity is deemed socially desirable, a combination of instruments is necessary. Fuel taxes play an important role within this combination. Apart from their long-term effects, the low price elasticity of demand for transport fuel would allow the collection of a significant amount of revenues, which could eventually be earmarked to encourage reductions in private transport demand and modal shifts with other instruments.     

我国新能源汽车发展对道路交通能源转型影响研究

本文首先通过Bass模型对各类新能源汽车动力技术/车型保有量变化趋势进行预测。在此基础上,采用LEAP模型测算了交通部门能源消费,并利用GREET模型的分析结果分两种情景预测了全生命周期温室气体排放量。研究发现,较混合动力汽车快速发展情景,新能源汽车普及情景下我国道路交通能耗及排放水平总量将显著下降,且能耗及排放峰值都将明显提前,新能源汽车的快速发展将对加速我国交通能源转型及温室气体减排起到关键作用。     

Measuring effectiveness of carbon tax on Indian road passenger transport: A system dynamics approach

The objective of this study is to examine whether carbon tax as a mitigation instrument could be effective in reducing CO₂ emissions from road passenger transport in India. A simulation exercise with system dynamics modelling is used to explore various scenarios pertaining to the carbon tax on fuel. To validate the model, available data from 2000 to 2011 on major variables such as CO₂ emissions, passenger kilometre travelled and GDP growth rate has been used in the paper as a reference case. Findings from scenario analysis using different tax rates indicate a potential reduction in CO₂ emissions in the range of 26 to 40% as compared to a baseline scenario in 2050. The analysis shall assist policymakers in designing an appropriate rate of the carbon tax and optimise its effect through revenue recycling.     

Low carbon society scenario analysis of transport sector of an emerging economy—The AIM/Enduse modelling approach

The transport sector of a country is the backbone driving the economy forward. Thailand’s land transport sector is modelled using the AIM/Enduse, which is a recursive dynamic optimization model, based on bottom-up modelling principle. The travel demand is divided into two major categories which are passenger travel and freight travel. The objective of this paper is to analyse the mitigation possible through low carbon society (LCS) measures and emission tax (ET). Two scenario clusters are devised along with the BAU case. The LCS scenario cluster has three designed scenarios which are LCS-L, LCS-M and LCS-H. The emission tax (ET) cluster has four scenarios, where the taxes of 50, 100, 200 and 500 USD/t-CO₂ are implemented. Along with this the marginal abatement costs (MAC) of the counter-measures (CMs) and the co-benefits in terms of energy security, productivity and air pollutant mitigation are also assessed. Results show that LCS scenarios are possible of mitigating up to 1230 Mt-CO₂ cumulatively, from 2010 to 2050. In terms of MACs, new vehicles play a pivotal role, along with hybrid vehicles. The Average Abatement Cost (AAC) assessment shows that the AAC of LCS-H scenario is in the order of 100 USD/t-CO₂. All the LCS and ET scenarios show an enhancement in energy security and also a threefold increase in productivity. There is distinct mitigation in terms of air pollutants from the transport sector as well.     

International passenger transport and climate change: A sector analysis in car demand and associated emissions from 2000 to 2050

The paper provides global regionalized projections of passenger car demand, use and associated CO₂ emissions from 11 world regions. The study is based on empirical data that have been originally collated from international sources for the purpose of modeling region-specific car stock demand. Derived demands serve as indicator of car related fuel consumption and associated CO₂ emissions, which are calculated on the basis of behavioral and technological scenarios. The obtained CO₂ emission paths are sectoral baseline scenarios that identify region-specific potentials of growth in car induced CO₂ emissions assuming that current trends continue to prevail. The study adopts a multi-model approach to car demand by applying two methodologies rooted in the economics of consumption: utility maximization and single equation models. The utility maximization method for modeling car demand is driven by the preferences of the representative consumers of each world region, subject to exogenous price and income trajectories. The latter is adopted from an optimal growth model. This is a novel approach to projecting global regionalized sectoral car demands. The study is complemented by the application of single equation income–consumption models based on logistical Gompertz functions and non-linear regression techniques to compare model results.     

Estimation of Turkish road transport emissions

Using the COPERT III program, an inventory of Turkish road transport emissions was calculated and the contributions of road transport to global and local air pollutant emissions were examined for the year 2004. It was observed that passenger cars are the main source of CO, HC, and Pb emissions while heavy duty vehicles are mainly responsible for NO_x, particulate matter (PM), and SO₂ emissions. Taking the emissions for the year 2004 as the baseline, a parametric study was conducted to determine the emission reduction potentials of different road transport strategies. The results indicated that the following road transport strategies; fleet renewal, promotion of public transportation, and faster urban traffic speed are very effective strategies for reducing regulated emissions and fuel consumption (FC) from a technical point of view. It was also noted that replacement of two-stroke motorcycles with four-stroke motorcycles is as effective as fleet renewal in reducing HC emissions.     

Assessment of CO2 emissions and its reduction potential in the Korean petroleum refining industry using energy-environment models

We assessed potential future CO₂ reduction in the Korean petroleum refining industry by investigating five new technologies for energy savings and CO₂ mitigation using a hybrid SD-LEAP model: crude oil distillation units (CDU), vacuum distillation units (VDU), light gas-oil hydro-desulfurization units (LGO HDS), and the vacuum residue hydro-desulfurization (VR HDS) process. The current and future demand for refining industry products in Korea was estimated using the SD model. The required crude oil input amounts are expected to increase from 139 million tons in 2008 to 154 million tons in 2030 in the baseline scenario. The current and future productivity of the petroleum refining industry was predicted, and this prediction was substituted into the LEAP model which analyzed energy consumption and CO₂ emissions from the refining processes in the BAU scenario. We expect that new technology and alternative scenarios will reduce CO₂ emissions by 0.048% and 0.065% in the national and industrial sectors, respectively.     

Influence of European passenger cars weight to exhaust CO2 emissions

The increase of atmospheric CO₂ concentration influences climate changes. The road transport sector is one of the main anthropogenic sources of CO₂ emissions in the European Union (EU). One of the main parameters influencing CO₂ emissions from passenger cars (PCs) is their weight, which increases during last years. For the same driving distance, heavier vehicles need more work than lighter ones, because they have to move an extra weight, and thus more fuel is consumed and thus increased CO₂ emissions. The weight control of new PCs could be an efficient way to control their CO₂ emissions. After an analysis of the EU new PCs market, their segment distribution and their weight, some estimations for 2020 are presented. Based on this analysis, 13 base scenarios using several ways for the control of the weight of future European new PCs are used to estimate their CO₂ emissions and the benefit of each scenario. The results show that a significant benefit on CO₂ emissions could be achieved if the weight of each PC does not exceed an upper limit, especially if this limit is quite low. The benefit obtained by limitations of weight is higher than the benefit obtained from the expected decreased future fuel consumption. Similar results are obtained when the weight of new PCs does not exceed an upper limit within each segment, or when the weight of each new PC decreases.