完善我国可再生能源补贴制度

<正>我国可再生能源(不含水电)的迅速发展与国家补贴密不可分。按已公布的规划,到2015年,风电发电量2000×108kW·h,需补贴约400亿元;光伏发电装机3500×104kW,当年发电量500×108kW·h,按0.5元/(kW·h)计算,需补贴250亿元;生物质发电装机1300×104kW,发电量700×108kW·h,需补贴280亿元;电网接入还需补贴100亿元。以上合计,2015年补贴资金不少于1000亿元。2015年当年可用于可再生能源电价补贴的资金为480亿元左右,仍有500多亿元的资金缺口。如何完善可再生能源补贴机制?首先,采用以补贴定规模的办法。建议改革现有可再生能源的补贴办法,新上风电、     

秸秆发电过程中原料收集的成本分析

高昂的发电成本是制约生物质发电产业发展的瓶颈,生物质原料收集困难是发电成本过高的主要因素。秸秆是生物质电厂的主要发电原料,分析了秸秆的供应链,对秸秆收集成本的构成进行了分析,并在逐个分析的基础上建立了收集成本的计算模型。以江苏地区某电厂为例,利用模型对秸秆收集成本进行了测算,并进一步进行了敏感性分析。分析结果表明该地区原料供应不足,提出了电厂应缩减其装机规模的建议,建议电厂选址时应考虑供应量、收购价格、装机规模、收购模式等因素以降低原料收集成本。     

荒漠能源植物气化发电的经济可行性分析

利用净现值法对荒漠生物质气化发电进行了经济评价,通过评价可以得出以下结论:生物质气化发电的规模对固定成本和运营成本有重要的影响,装机容量为3000kW的电厂的单位固定成本比200kW的电厂固定成本下降26.67%,运营成本下降52.93%;销售电价是影响财务内部收益率最敏感的因素之一,如提高上网电价可更有效增加项目的经济效益;生物质的收购价格对净现值的影响非常显著,净现值与生物质价格成反比关系;当生物质价格高于200元/t,内部收益率为7%时,净现值小于零,生物质发电将失去其竞争力。在甘肃地区上网电价为0.33元的前提下,建设1000kW以上的生物质气化发电电厂,无需政府补贴,仍具有可行性。     

中国生物质气化联合循环发电系统的费用及容量选择

基于中国4MW生物质气化燃气内燃机-汽轮机联合循环发电系统的生物质燃料供给链,建立发电过程费用模型,估算系统的电力费用。结果表明:电力费用为0.38元/(kW.h),稍高于平均上网电价(0.25～0.35元/(kW.h)),低于平均市场零售价(0.50元/(kW.h))。根据燃料费用和发电过程费用模型,讨论生物质电厂容量规模效益。依据中国当前的技术水平和生物质燃料(稻草)供给状况,作为分布式生物质发电系统,6～8MW之间的容量是可行的选择。     

我国生物质直燃发电区域成本及发展潜力分析

明确生物质直燃发电优先发展区域是落实国家生物质能中长期发展规划的重要环节。以25 MW装机规模的秸秆直燃电厂为例,采用优化的发电成本计算方法,对我国生物质直燃发电成本进行分省区域研究。结论表明,我国中部与东北部地区直燃发电成本居中,生物质资源丰富,具有生物质直燃发电规模化发展的潜力;同时技术的成熟与碳排放收费等政策的建立将有助于提高直燃发电的经济性,促进其迅速发展。     

基于中央企业的全国可再生能源开发预测研究及发展建议

中央企业是我国经济的支柱,在可再生能源开发中占据主导地位,基于中央企业的开发趋势预测全国可再生能源规模,可避免现行预测方法中存在的一些问题。截至2017年底,中央企业可再生能源装机容量占我国可再生能源总装机容量的60%,发电量占65%。假定中央企业在2017～2030年间可再生能源规模呈线性增长,且各种类可再生能源的全国占比不变。预测近期(2020年)全国可再生能源装机约9.0×108kW,发电量约2.3×1012kW·h,其中水电、风电、太阳能发电、生物质发电装机分别约3.7×108kW、2.6×108kW、2.4×108kW、0.3×108kW,发电量分别约1.4×1012kW·h、0.5×1012kW·h、0.2×1012kW·h、0.1×1012kW·h;预测中远期(2030年)全国可再生能源装机约17.6×108kW,发电量约4.2×1012kW·h,其中水电、风电、太阳能发电、生物质发电装机分别约4.7×108kW、5.9×108kW、6.3×108kW、0.6×108kW,发电量分别约1.9×1012kW·h、1.3×1012kW·h、0.7×1012kW·h、0.3×1012kW·h。对标我国2020年15%和2030年20%的非化石能源占一次能源消费比重目标,上述预测在合理范围内。基于预测情景,建议要做好加快龙头水库电站开发,加大海上风电和陆上分散式风电开发力度,积极发展太阳能储能,加大生物质热电联产开发或改造力度,开发多能互补综合应用形式,统筹实施电力送出等工作。     

农村零碳能源系统构建框架研究

我国农村清洁能源开发潜力较大。经测算,我国农光互补、渔光互补、屋顶光伏等复合光伏利用模式的总开发潜力可达120亿kW,年发电量达14.4万亿kW·h。光伏发电可以作为我国农村能源系统的电量主体。生物质综合利用具有重要战略意义,能够解决农村废弃物的污染问题,每年能源化利用的生物质总量可超过20亿t标煤。我国农业生产和农村生活须要加快电能替代进程,预计2050年我国农村耗电量将达2万亿kW·h。未来我国农村能源系统将呈现“百分百清洁能源+生物质规模化利用+高电气化率”的特征。测算结果表明,我国农村能够以100%清洁能源满足能源需求,实现农村能源系统零碳排放,具备较高的环境效益。     

中国生物质能年利用量力争占一次能源消费量的1％

到2010年，中国生物质能发展的主要目标是：生物质发电达到550万千瓦，生物液体燃料达到200万吨，沼气年利用量达到190亿立方米，生物固体成型燃料达到100万吨，生物质能年利用量占到一次能源消费量的1％。财政部对中国能源与生物化工产业将采取弹性亏损补贴、原料基地补助、示范补助、税收优惠四项财税扶持政策。     

我国光伏发电取得了可喜成绩

正近年来,特别是"十二五"期间,我国光伏发电取得了可喜成绩,光伏装机规模和发电量均快速增长。至2015年底,我国光伏发电累计装机容量达到4318×104kW(其中地面光伏电站3712×104kW,分布式光伏606×104kW),并网容量4158×104kW,年发电量383×108kW·h,约占全球光伏装机的1/5,并超过德国(光伏装机容量为3960×104kW)成为世界光伏装机第一大国。预计2020年我国光伏装机容量将达到1.2×108~1.5×108kW,2030年光伏装机将达4×108~5×108kW。我国光伏发电的快速发展、装     

生物质气化发电的经济效益分析

应用财务评价的方法分析了影响生物质气化发电经济效益的主要因素，从项目规模、出售电价和原料成本三个方面阐述了提高生物质气化发电经济效益的方法，提出了发展生物质气化发电技术的相关建议。     

中型生物质气化发电CDM项目案例分析

以广东省生物质气化发电技术应用为清洁发展机制(CDM)项目案例,基于3个基准线,应用增量成本分析方法,计算了中型生物质气化发电作为CDM项目的单位碳减排成本,并对其进行了敏感性分析。结果表明,CDM项目的单位碳减排成本在10-36美元/tCO2之间,且年处理生物质量为0.99-2.97万t时能实现年CO2减排量在1705-6038 tCO2/a之间。     

A feedstock supply model integrating the official organization for China's biomass generation plants

Shortage of feedstock has hindered the development of China's biomass power generation because it is highly difficult to collect straw in China. We pioneered a new feedstock supply model in which the formal official organization of villagers' committees is introduced. Different from the previous feedstock supply patterns, the immaterial utility of relative stakeholders and the impact of villagers' committees on farmers' behavior are considered in this paper. To compare this pattern's performance with that of the conventional ones, this paper developed a multi-agent model specifically for China's situation. We applied the model to simulate the operation of a biomass supply chain. The results show that the proposed feedstock supply pattern can significantly increase the profits of biomass plants, biomass supply amounts, and farmers' participation, and in contrast with the broker pattern, it can lower feedstock prices through disintermediation. Sensitivity analyses show that preferential feed-in tariffs are still necessary for biomass power and that the new pattern can ease the government's subsidy burdens. Additionally, farmers' opportunity costs for supplying biomass, their perceptions of immaterial utility and the cooperative's financial resource schemes of the public welfare fund all have differing impacts on the achievement of the new pattern.     

Energy policy tools for agricultural residues utilization for heat and power generation: A case study of sugarcane trash in Thailand

Cane trash could viably substitute fossil fuels in heat and power generation projects to avoid air pollution from open burning and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. It is competitive with bituminous and other agro-industrial biomass. Using cane trash for heat generation project could provide a higher reliability and return on investment than power generation project. The heat generation project could be viable (Financial Internal Rate of Return, FIRR = 36–81%) without feedstock subsidy. With current investment and support conditions, the capacity of 5 MW option of power generation project is the most viable (FIRR = 13.6–15.3%); but 30 MW, 1 MW and 10 MW options require feedstock subsidy 450–1100 Baht/t-cane trash to strengthen financial viability. Furthermore, the revenue from carbon credit sales could compensate the revenue from current energy price adder and increases 0.5–1.0% FIRR of power generation project. Using cane trash for 1 MW power generation could reduce GHG emission 637–861 t CO₂eq and avoid air pollutant emissions of 3.35 kg nitrogen oxides (NO_x), 0.41 kg sulfur oxides (SO_x) and 2.05 kg volatile organic compounds (VOC). Also, 1 t steam generation from cane trash could avoid pollutant emissions of 0.6 kg NO_x, 0.07 kg SO_x, and 0.37 kg VOC. The potential of cane trash to cause fouling/slagging as well as erosion are not significantly different from other biomass, but chlorinated organic compounds and NO_x could be higher than bituminous and current biomass feedstock at sugar mill (bagasse and rice husk).     

25MW生物质直燃发电项目及其效益分析评价

生物质直燃发电作为可再生能源利用的一种形式,近年来在我国得到大力发展。本文介绍了生物质直燃发电技术的原理、工艺流程及发电系统构成;以典型机组配置的25MW生物质直燃发电项目为例,分析了其带来的经济效益、生态效益和社会效益;并对生物质直燃发电两大难题——燃料收集困难和发电运营成本偏高提出了建议。从而得出了对于该类项目具有现实指导意义的结论,为我国开展大型生物质直燃发电项目提供了理论参考依据。     

Learning curves for harnessing biomass power: What could explain the reduction of its cost during the expansion of China?

To explain the factors influencing the cost of biomass power in China, we applied an improved model of learning curves in this paper. The impact of cumulative installed capacity of biomass power and other factors on the cost of biomass technology were investigated. The results showed that installed capacity expansion has led to significant cost reduction. Meanwhile, the effect of economies of scale was observed in the analysis of generation cost. The ownership structure of the firm and the size of the developer had no influence on the learning effects and stronger policy support may, ironically, produce negative incentive effects on technology improvement.     

Evaluating the impact of three incentive programs on the economics of cofiring willow biomass with coal in New York State

Plantations of fast-growing willow shrubs are being promoted as a source quality biomass feedstock for bioenergy and bioproducts in New York State (NY). In the near-term, cofiring of the feedstock—in combination with other woody biomass—with coal in existing utility power boilers is considered to be the most promising conversion method for energy generation. Despite the clear technological viability and associated environmental benefits, cofiring of willow has not been widely adopted. The relatively high production cost of the willow feedstock, which is over twice that of coal, is the primary reason for this lack of interest. Taxes that account for some of the social costs of using coal and/or incentives that appropriate value for some of the social benefits of using willow are essential for eliminating most or the entire current price differential. This paper presents an integrated analysis of the economics of power generation from cofiring willow biomass feedstock with coal, from the perspective of the grower, aggregator and the power plant. Emphasis is placed on analyzing the relative impact of a green premium price, a closed-loop biomass tax credit, and payments to growers under the proposed Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) harvesting exemption policy. The CRP payments reduced the delivered cost of willow by 36–35%, to $1.90 GJ⁻¹ and $1.70 GJ⁻¹, under current and increased yield conditions, respectively. These prices are still high, relative to coal. Other incentives are required to ensure commercial viability. The required levels of green premium price (0.4–1.0 cents kWh⁻¹) and biomass tax credit (0.75–2.4 cents kWh⁻¹) vary depending on whether the incentives were being applied by themselves or in combination, and whether current yield or potential increased yields were being considered. In the near term, cofiring willow biomass and coal can be an economically viable option for power generation in NY if the expected overall beneficial effects associated with the production and use of the biomass is accounted for.     

Energy potential through agricultural biomass using geographical information system—A case study of Punjab

Agricultural biomass has immense potential for power production in an Indian state like Punjab. A judicious use of biomass energy could potentially play an important role in mitigating environmental impacts of non-renewable energy sources particularly global warming and acid rain. But the availability of agricultural biomass is spatially scattered. The spatial distribution of this resource and the associate costs of collection and transportation are major bottlenecks for the success of biomass energy conversion facilities. Biomass, being scattered and loose, has huge collection and transportation costs, which can be reduced by properly planning and locating the biomass collection centers for biomass-based power plants. Before planning the collection centers, it is necessary to evaluate the biomass, energy and collection cost of biomass in the field. In this paper, an attempt has been made to evaluate the spatial potential of biomass with geographical information system (GIS) and a mathematical model for collection of biomass in the field has been developed. The total amount of unused agricultural biomass is about 13.73 Mt year⁻¹. The total power generation capacity from unused biomass is approximately 900 MW. The collection cost in the field up to the carrier unit is US$3.90 t⁻¹.     

基于财务评价体系的光伏项目含税LCOE分析

该文结合财务评价系统的成本分类,配合国内增值税、所得税等税金的计算方式,推导通用的项目含税平准化度电成本(LCOE)公式,并提出项目含税LCOE值盈亏平衡点的概念和计算方法,来表征项目含税成本与上网电价间的盈亏平衡点.具体实例分析结果表明,含税LCOE公式可以适应项目全生命周期税率和上网电价变化的情况.项目扣减进项税或...     

甘肃敦煌10MW光伏并网发电特许权示范项目存在问题分析

2009年3月启动的甘肃敦煌10MW光伏并网发电特许权示范项目招标,标志着我国在大型荒漠光伏电站应用方面取得了重大进展。国家能源局组织开展的第一轮太阳能光伏发电特许权招标活动非常及时,对启动国内太阳能光伏市场产生了积极的影响,确定的电价1.09元/(kW.h)基本合理。然而,项目在实施过程中也却遇到了一系列的问题,如因供货不及时影响了项目进展,增大了建设成本;配套电网建设滞后;电力外送和消纳问题越来越突出,将成为大规模发展光伏电站的主要制约因素;税制改革挫伤了地方政府的积极性等。为保证国内光伏市场的健康发展,建议应将增值税中央收入部分按一定比例返还地方,采取补贴或者转移支付等手段维护地方政府开发太阳能项目的积极性;继续开展招标试点,摸清国内太阳能产业和市场的发展走向,完善太阳能光伏发电价格形成机制;吸取风电特许权项目的经验教训,改进招标规则,在电价的核准上谨慎行事;统筹考虑风电、太阳能等可再生能源资源开发与外送通道和消纳市场问题;慎重对待为解决太阳能等可再生能源发电电力消纳问题而引进高耗能项目。