The effect of rainfall measurement uncertainties on rainfall-runoff processes modelling.

Rainfall data are a crucial input for various tasks concerning the wet weather period. Nevertheless, their measurement is affected by random and systematic errors that cause an underestimation of the rainfall volume. Therefore, the general objective of the presented work was to assess the credibility of measured rainfall data and to evaluate the effect of measurement errors on urban drainage modelling tasks. Within the project, the methodology of the tipping bucket rain gauge (TBR) was defined and assessed in terms of uncertainty analysis. A set of 18 TBRs was calibrated and the results were compared to the previous calibration. This enables us to evaluate the ageing of TBRs. A propagation of calibration and other systematic errors through the rainfall-runoff model was performed on experimental catchment. It was found that the TBR calibration is important mainly for tasks connected with the assessment of peak values and high flow durations. The omission of calibration leads to up to 30% underestimation and the effect of other systematic errors can add a further 15%. The TBR calibration should be done every two years in order to catch up the ageing of TBR mechanics. Further, the authors recommend to adjust the dynamic test duration proportionally to generated rainfall intensity.     

CSOs: tools for assessing their operation in our systems.

In recent years, regulations have been introduced under European legislation to govern wastewater discharge into natural environments, with particular provisions for combined sewer overflows. It has therefore become indispensable to control the hydraulic behaviour of these constructions. This article addresses the issue of 1D and 3D hydraulic modelling of CSOs. In the case of 1D modelling, a computational tool that is adapted to the hydraulic complexity of side weirs has been designed. For 3D modelling, the Fluent calculation code has been tested. The two modelling approaches have been validated by the data collected from the small-scale model in Obernai (French).     

The influence of biodegradability of sewer solids for the management of CSOs.

The re-suspension of sediments in combined sewers and the associated pollutants into the bulk water during wet weather flows can cause pollutants to be carried further downstream to receiving waters or discharged via Combined Sewer Overflows (CSO). A typical pollutograph shows the trend of released bulk pollutants with time but does not consider information on the biodegradability of these pollutants. A new prediction methodology based on Oxygen Utilisation Rate (respirometric method) and Erosionmeter (laboratory device replicating in-sewer erosion) experiments is proposed which is able to predict the trends in biodegradability during in-sewer sediment erosion in wet weather conditions. The proposed new prediction methodology is also based on COD fractionation techniques.     

Assessment of data and parameter uncertainties in integrated water-quality model

In integrated urban drainage water quality models, due to the fact that integrated approaches are basically a cascade of sub-models (simulating sewer system, wastewater treatment plant and receiving water body), uncertainty produced in one sub-model propagates to the following ones depending on the model structure, the estimation of parameters and the availability and uncertainty of measurements in the different parts of the system. Uncertainty basically propagates throughout a chain of models in which simulation output from upstream models is transferred to the downstream ones as input. The overall uncertainty can differ from the simple sum of uncertainties generated in each sub-model, depending on well-known uncertainty accumulation problems. The present paper aims to study the uncertainty propagation throughout an integrated urban water-quality model. At this scope, a parsimonious bespoke integrated model has been used allowing analysis of the combinative effect between different sub-models. Particularly, the data and parameter uncertainty have been assessed and compared by means of the variance decomposition concept. The integrated model and the methodology for the uncertainty decomposition have been applied to a complex integrated catchment: the Nocella basin (Italy). The results show that uncertainty contribution due to the model structure is higher with respect to the other sources of uncertainty.     

Quantification of pollution loads from CSOs into surface water bodies by means of online techniques.

Based on novel technologies, a modular online monitoring station suitable for continuous application in sewer networks, wastewater treatment plants and receiving water bodies has been designed. The monitoring station serves as the backbone of a water quality pilot network. As one part of this network a sewer monitoring station has been installed at a combined sewer overflow in Graz to quantify pollution concentrations and loads in the combined sewer and into the receiving water and is operated since October 2002. The design and equipment of the measurement station and first operating experiences and results are given in this paper.     

Continuous monitoring in sewer networks an approach for quantification of pollution loads from CSOs into surface water bodies.

Different approaches for quantification of pollution loads discharged from combined sewer networks into surface water bodies have been observed over the last few years and decades, but a large number of unresolved problems still remain. Many monitoring campaigns have been based on manual or automated spot sampling - with the long known limitations of this method such as sampling errors and errors due to sample conservation, transport and preparation. On the other hand, only recently have sensors became available which are suitable for continuous application in sewer networks. A large number of practical problems still have to be solved before continuous monitoring in sewer networks will be successful. Additionally, most of the applicable sensors are based on surrogate methods which results in a considerable effort for reference measurements for sensor calibration. Finally, it has to be considered that, depending on the sewer network topography, deposition and remobilisation of pollutants varies considerably, which limits the generality of monitoring results and, subsequently, their applicability as a base for the design of storm water tanks or combined sewer overflows (CSO). A monitoring station for continuous monitoring of load discharges from a CSO has been installed and operated for more than one year. The design and equipment of the measurement station, operational experiences and results are given in this paper.     

Experimental abatement data of underflow baffles for removal of floatables in the CSOs of the Greater Montréal (Canada) area.

Underflow baffles have gained in popularity over the years as a viable mean to intercept floatables in Combined Sewer Overflows (CSOs). This choice was mainly justified by the extremely low capital cost (CAPEX) and operational cost (OPEX) of this solution, although the efficiency of underflow baffles has never been clearly proven. The only similar application to underflow baffles are scum boards in grit chambers and clarifier. However, the flow conditions at CSOs vary considerably from those in grit chambers and clarifier. For this reason, review of the behavior of floatables in a rapid flow is paramount. Only then can comprehensive design criteria for underflow baffles and overflow chambers be suggested. Pilot scale tests, performed in a 17 metres long basin at various flowrates, had already shown that a critical horizontal velocity for floatables (Vcr) may develop in the overflow chambers. In this follow up study, the fate of intercepted floatables was investigated. It appears from this latest data that permanent capture of floatables decreases rapidly with an increase in the horizontal velocity of the flow, no matter what the baffle depth. Baffle depth increases capture at lower velocities (0.17 m/s) but become irrelevant at higher velocities (0.61 m/s). This data suggests that capture efficiency of existing underflow baffles in overflow chambers can be, at best, very low whenever the horizontal velocity increases above 0.30 m/s or 1 ft/s.     

An elutriation apparatus for assessing settleability of combined sewer overflows (CSOs).

An elutriation apparatus was proposed for testing the settleability of combined sewer outflows (CSOs) and applied to 12 CSO samples. In this apparatus, solids settling is measured under dynamic conditions created by flow through a series of settling chambers of varying diameters and upward flow velocities. Such a procedure reproduces better turbulent settling in CSO tanks than the conventional settling columns, and facilitates testing coagulant additions under dynamic conditions. Among the limitations, one could name the relatively large size of the apparatus and samples (60 L), and inadequate handling of floatables. Settleability results obtained for the elutriation apparatus and a conventional settling column indicate large inter-event variation in CSO settleability. Under such circumstances, settling tanks need to be designed for "average" conditions and, within some limits, the differences in test results produced by various settleability testing apparatuses and procedures may be acceptable. Further development of the elutriation apparatus is under way, focusing on reducing flow velocities in the tubing connecting settling chambers and reducing the number of settling chambers employed. The first measure would reduce the risk of floc breakage in the connecting tubing and the second one would reduce the required sample size.     

A guidance for assessing and communicating uncertainties.

In the daily practice of science for policy, as experienced by governmental agencies which inform the policy and the public on the state and outlook of the environment, there is a pressing need for guidance in assessing and communicating uncertainties. This need extends beyond the quantitative assessment of uncertainties in model results, and focuses on the entire process of environmental assessment, running from problem framing towards reporting the results of the study. Using the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (RIVM/MNP) as a case, the development, structure and content of such a guidance system is highlighted. Conditions for a successful implementation of the guidance system are discussed, and some prospects for future work are outlined.     

Recent developments in lake modelling.

The radical variability of ecosystems such as lakes when reacting to prevailing conditions has in many situations found traditional modelling too inflexible. The introduction of eco-exergy, a measure of a system's distance from thermodynamic equilibrium, has enabled models to deal with ecosystems that can show major structural changes resulting from adaptation and shifts in species composition.     

Resources and uncertainties in evaluation of chemicals: basic methodological developments.

Conscious handling of uncertainty is critical in the assessment of chemicals, where the demand of knowledge is high compared to the available amount of resources. Consequently weighing between the use of resources and the acceptance of uncertainty has to be a transparent process and this sets up a challenge in relation to the application of mathematical methods. The maximum entropy principle is a useful paradigm for setting up prior information that is as non-informative as possible. It is shown how the use of partial ordering for deriving ranking results can be considered as a maximum entropy strategy in relation to the model structure uncertainty. In this way it seems possible to solve central parts of the problem of resource optimising risk assessment by combining the precautionary principle and screening before more detailed risk assessment is undertaken. The non-parametric approach of partial order technique further appears to be more transparent than most other ranking methodologies for complex systems. Because in the partial order techniques, no more or less known uncertainty will be hidden in the application of specific weighting factors and functional relationships among the criteria.     

A benchmark methodology for managing uncertainties in urban runoff quality models.

In this paper we present a benchmarking methodology, which aims at comparing urban runoff quality models, based on the Bayesian theory. After choosing the different configurations of models to be tested, this methodology uses the Metropolis algorithm, a general MCMC sampling method, to estimate the posterior distributions of the models' parameters. The analysis of these posterior distributions allows a quantitative assessment of the parameters' uncertainties and their interaction structure, and provides information about the sensitivity of the probability distribution of the model output to parameters. The effectiveness and efficiency of this methodology are illustrated in the context of 4 configurations of pollutants' accumulation/erosion models, tested on 4 street subcatchments. Calibration results demonstrate that the Metropolis algorithm produces reliable inferences of parameters thus, helping on the improvement of the mathematical concept of model equations.     

Integrated modelling for the evaluation of infiltration effects.

The objective of the present study is the estimation of the potential benefits of sewer pipe rehabilitation for the performance of the drainage system and the wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) as well as for the receiving water quality. The relation of sewer system status and the infiltration rate is assessed based on statistical analysis of 470 km of CCTV (Closed Circuit Television) inspected sewers of the city of Dresden. The potential reduction of infiltration rates and the consequent performance improvements of the urban wastewater system are simulated as a function of rehabilitation activities in the network. The integrated model is applied to an artificial system with input from a real sewer network. In this paper, the general design of the integrated model and its data requirements are presented. For an exemplary study, the consequences of the simulations are discussed with respect to the prioritisation of rehabilitation activities in the network.     

Multidimensional modelling of anaerobic granules.

A multispecies, two- and three-dimensional model was developed, based on a previously published planar biofilm model, and the biochemical structure of the ADM1. Several soluble substrates diffuse and react in the granule. Local pH is calculated from acid-base equilibria and charge balance. The model uses individual-based representation of biomass particles within the granule (biofilm), and describes spreading by an iterative pushing technique. The overall computational domain consists of one granule, and is divided into a grid with Cartesian coordinates. The number of grid elements does not limit the number of biomass particles, and it is not necessary to use grid-spreading techniques, such as cellular automata, which result in Cartesian artefacts. The model represents both microscopic and macroscopic features in granule structure, previously observed using in-situ molecular techniques, and can be effectively used to interpret these results.     

An integrated methodology for recording uncertainties about environmental data.

Understanding the limitations of environmental data is essential both for managing environmental systems effectively and for encouraging the responsible use of scientific research when knowledge is limited and priorities are varied. Using a combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques for assessing probabilities, and acknowledging the importance of scenarios where probabilities cannot be determined, an integrated methodology is presented for handling uncertainties about environmental data. The methodology is based on a fourfold distinction between the empirical quality of data (and the ancillary information, such as 'scale', required to interpret this), the sources of uncertainty in data, the 'fitness for use' of the data, and the quality or 'goodness' of an uncertainty model.     

地下水数值模拟不确定性的贝叶斯分析

本文在常用的确定性地下水流数值模型的基础上,提出了基于贝叶斯原理的不确定性分析方法,并通过算例,针对几种常见的不确定性因素,定量地描述了其对模型参数和模拟结果的影响。相较于传统的蒙特卡罗法等不确定性分析方法,该方法不仅考虑了先验的参数不确定性,而且考虑了模拟结果与观测资料的相似度,因此其结果更加符合实际情况。此外,该方法能够被用于风险分析,可为地下水资源评价及开发利用提供科学的依据。     

Water quality modelling of Jadro spring.

Management of water quality in karst is a specific problem. Water generally moves very fast by infiltration processes but far more by concentrated flows through fissures and openings in karst. This enables the entire surface pollution to be transferred fast and without filtration into groundwater springs. A typical example is the Jadro spring. Changes in water quality at the spring are sudden, but short. Turbidity as a major water quality problem for the karst springs regularly exceeds allowable standards. Former practice in problem solving has been reduced to intensive water disinfection in periods of great turbidity without analyses of disinfection by-products risks for water users. The main prerequisite for water quality control and an optimization of water disinfection is the knowledge of raw water quality and nature of occurrence. The analysis of monitoring data and their functional relationship with hydrological parameters enables establishment of a stochastic model that will help obtain better information on turbidity in different periods of the year. Using the model a great number of average monthly and extreme daily values are generated. By statistical analyses of these data possibility of occurrence of high turbidity in certain months is obtained. This information can be used for designing expert system for water quality management of karst springs. Thus, the time series model becomes a valuable tool in management of drinking water quality of the Jadro spring.     

Joint use of monitoring and modelling.

There is much to gain in joining monitoring and modelling efforts, especially in the present process of implementing the European Water Framework Directive. Nevertheless, it is rare to see forces combined in these two disciplines. To bring the monitoring and the modelling communities together, a number of workshops have been arranged with discussions on benefits and constraints in joint use of monitoring and modelling. The workshops have been attended by scientists, water managers, policy makers as well as stakeholders and consultants. Emphasis has been put on data availability and accessibility, remote sensing and data assimilation techniques, monitoring programmes and modelling support to the design or optimisation of these as well as potential benefits of using supporting modelling tools in the process of designing Programmes of Measures by impact assessment etc. The way models can support in extrapolation in time and space, in data analysis, in process understanding (conceptual models), in accessing correct interaction between pressures and impacts etc. have also been elaborated. Although practitioners have been open-minded to the presented ideas, they are somewhat reluctant towards how to implement this in their daily work. This paper presents some experiences from the workshops.