Mitigation technologies and measures in the energy sector of Kazakstan

An important commitment in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is to conduct mitigation analysis and to communicate climate change measures and polices. In major part reducing CO₂ as well as the other greenhouse gas emissions in Kazakstan can be a side-product of measures addressed to increasing energy efficiency. Since such measures are very important for the national economy, mitigation strategies in the energy sector of Kazakstan are directly connected with the general national strategy of the energy sector development. This paper outlines the main measures and technologies in energy sector of Kazakstan which can lead to GHG emissions reduction and presents the results of current mitigation assessment.

The mitigation analysis addressed to energy production sector. A baseline and six mitigation scenarios were developed to evaluate the most attractive mitigation options, focusing on specific technologies which have been already included in sustainable energy programs. According to the baseline projection, Kazakstan's CO₂ emissions will not exceed their 1990 level until 2005. The potential for CO₂ emission reduction is estimated to be about 11% of the baseline emission level by the end of considered period (in 2020). The main mitigation options in the energy production sector in terms of mitigation potential and technical and economical feasibility include rehabilitation of thermal power plants aimed to increasing efficiency, use of nuclear energy, and further expansion in the use of hydro energy based on small hydroelectric power plants.     

Greenhouse gas emission mitigation in the Sri Lanka power sector supply side and demand side options

Sri Lanka has had a hydropower dominated electricity generation sector for many years with a gradually decreasing percentage contribution from hydroresources. At the same time, the thermal generation share has been increasing over the years. Therefore, the expected fuel mix in the future in the large scale thermal generation system would be dominated by petroleum products and coal. This will result in a gradual increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) and other environmental emissions in the power sector and, hence, require special attention to possible mitigation measures.

This paper analyses both the supply side and demand side (DSM) options available in the Sri Lanka power sector in mitigating emissions in the sector considering the technical feasibility and potential of such options. Further, the paper examines the carbon abatement costs associated with such supply side and DSM interventions using an integrated resource planning model, which is not used in Sri Lanka at present. The sensitivities of the final generation costs and emissions to different input parameters, such as discount rates, fuel prices and capital costs, are also presented in the paper. It is concluded that while some DSM measures are economically attractive as mitigation measures, all the supply side options have a relatively high cost of mitigation, particularly in the context of GHG emission mitigation. Further it is observed that when compared with the projected price of carbon under different global carbon trading scenarios, these supply side options cannot provide economically beneficial CO₂ mitigation in countries like Sri Lanka.     

The status and prospects of renewable energy for combating global warming

Reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in material quantities, globally, is a critical element in limiting the impacts of global warming. GHG emissions associated with energy extraction and use are a major component of any strategy addressing climate change mitigation. Non-emitting options for electrical power and liquid transportation fuels are increasingly considered key components of an energy system with lower overall environmental impacts. Renewable energy technologies (RETs) as well as biofuels technologies have been accelerating rapidly during the past decades, both in technology performance and cost-competitiveness — and they are increasingly gaining market share. These technology options offer many positive attributes, but also have unique cost/benefit trade-offs, such as land-use competition for bioresources and variability for wind and solar electric generation technologies. This paper presents a brief summary of status, recent progress, some technological highlights for RETs and biofuels, and an analysis of critical issues that must be addressed for RETs to meet a greater share of the global energy requirements and lower GHG emissions.     

Modeling of current and future energyintensity and greenhouse gas emissions ofthe Lebanese industrial sector: assessmentof mitigation options

Greenhouse gas emissions in Lebanon mainly come from energy activities, which are responsible for 85% of all CO₂ emissions. The CO₂ emissions from energy use in manufacturing industries and construction represent 24% of the total emissions of the energy sector. Lebanese manufacturers' accounted for 39.15 million gigajoules of fuel consumption for heat and power generation in 1994, including both fuel used directly and fuel burned remotely to generate electricity used in the sector. In addition to being processed by combustion, CO₂ is generated in calcining of carbonates in the manufacture of cement, iron and glass. Electricity, the most expensive form of energy, represented 25.87% of all fuel used for heat and power. Residual fuel oil and diesel, which are used mainly in direct combustion processes, represent 26.85 and 26.55% of all energy use by industry, respectively. Scenarios for future energy use and CO₂ emissions are developed for the industrial sector in Lebanon. The development of the baseline scenario relied on available data on major plants' outputs, and on reported amounts of fuels used by the industrial sector as a whole. Energy use in industry and the corresponding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for Lebanon are projected in baseline scenarios that reflect technologies, activities and practices that are likely to evolve from the base year 1994 to year 2040. Mitigation work targets a 15% of CO₂ emissions from the baseline scenario by year 2005 and a 20–30% reduction of CO₂ emissions by year 2040. The mitigation options selected for analysis are screened on the basis of GHG emissions and expert judgement on the viability of their wide-scale implementation and economic benefits. Using macroeconomic assessment and energy price assumptions, the final estimates of potential GHG emissions and reduction costs of various mitigation scenarios are calculated. The results show that the use of efficient electric motors, efficient boilers and furnaces with fuel switching from fuel oil to natural gas has the largest impact on GHG emissions at a levelized annual cost that ranges from −20 to −5 US$/tonne of CO₂ reduced. The negative costs are indicative of direct savings obtained in energy cost for those mitigation options.     

Historical carbon budget of the brazilian ethanol program

This work models the carbon neutralization capacity of Brazil's ethanol program since 1975. In addition to biofuel, we also assessed the mitigation potential of other energy products, such as, bioelectricity, and CO₂ emissions captured during fermentation of sugar cane's juice. Finally, we projected the neutralization capacity of sugar cane's bio-energy system over the next 32 years. The balance between several carbon stocks and flows was considered in the model, including the effects of land-use change. Our results show that the neutralization of the carbon released due to land-use change was attained only in 1992, and the maximum mitigation potential of the sugar cane sector was 128 tonnes of CO₂ per ha in 2006. An ideal reconstitution of the deployment of the sugar cane sector, including the full exploitation of bio-electricity's potential, plus the capture of CO₂ released during fermentation, shows that the neutralization of land-use change emissions would have been achieved in 1988, and its mitigation potential would have been 390 tCO₂/ha. Finally, forecasts of the sector up to 2039 shows that the mitigation potential in 2039 corresponds to 836 tCO₂/ha, which corresponds to 5.51 kg of CO₂ per liter of ethanol produced, or 55% above the negative emission level.     

Oil and natural gas prices and greenhouse gas emission mitigation

The hikes in hydrocarbon prices during the last years have lead to concern about investment choices in the energy system and uncertainty about the costs for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. On the one hand, high prices of oil and natural gas increase the use of coal; on the other hand, the cost difference between fossil-based energy and non-carbon energy options decreases. We use the global energy model TIMER to explore the energy system impacts of exogenously forced low, medium and high hydrocarbon price scenarios, with and without climate policy. We find that without climate policy high hydrocarbon prices drive electricity production from natural gas to coal. In the transport sector, high hydrocarbon prices lead to the introduction of alternative fuels, especially biofuels and coal-based hydrogen. This leads to increased emissions of CO₂. With climate policy, high hydrocarbon prices cause a shift in electricity production from a dominant position of natural gas with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) to coal-with-CCS, nuclear and wind. In the transport sector, the introduction of hydrogen opens up the possibility of CCS, leading to a higher mitigation potential at the same costs. In a more dynamic simulation of carbon price and oil price interaction the effects might be dampened somewhat.     

Scenario analysis on CO2 emissions reduction potential in China''s electricity sector

With the approach of the year 2012, a new round of international negotiations has energized the entire climate change community. With this, analyses on sector-based emissions reduction and mitigation options will provide the necessary information to form the debate. In order to assess the CO₂ emissions reduction potential of China's electricity sector, this research employs three scenarios based on the “long-range energy alternative planning system” (LEAP) model to simulate the different development paths in this sector. The baseline scenario, the current policy scenario, and the new policy scenario seek to gradually increase the extent of industrial restructuring and technical advancement. Results imply that energy consumption and CO₂ emission in China's electricity sector will rise rapidly in all scenarios until 2030—triple or quadruple the 2000 level; however, through structural adjustment in China's electricity sector, and through implementing technical mitigation measures, various degrees of abatement can be achieved. These reductions range from 85 to 350 million tons CO₂ per year—figures that correspond to different degrees of cost and investment. Demand side management and circulating fluidized bed combustion (CFBC) (ranked in order) are employed prior to use to realize emissions reduction, followed by supercritical plants and the renovation of conventional thermal power plants. In the long term, nuclear and hydropower will play the dominant role in contributing to emissions reduction. It is also suggested that a “self-restraint” reduction commitment should be employed to help contribute to the reduction of emission intensity, an avenue that is more practical for China in light of its current development phase. Setting the year 2000 as the base year, the intensity reduction target could possibly range from 4.2% to 19.4%, dependent on the implementation effectiveness of various mitigation options.     

On sustainability of bioenergy production: Integrating co-emissions from agricultural intensification

Biomass from cellulosic bioenergy crops is seen as a substantial part of future energy systems, especially if climate policy aims at stabilizing CO₂ concentration at low levels. However, among other concerns of sustainability, the large-scale use of bioenergy is controversial because it is hypothesized to increase the competition for land and therefore raise N₂O emissions from agricultural soils due to intensification. We apply a global land-use model that is suited to assess agricultural non-CO₂ GHG emissions. First, we describe how fertilization of cellulosic bioenergy crops and associated N₂O emissions are implemented in the land-use model and how future bioenergy demand is derived by an energy-economy-climate model. We then assess regional N₂O emissions from the soil due to large-scale bioenergy application, the expansion of cropland and the importance of technological change for dedicated bioenergy crops. Finally, we compare simulated N₂O emissions from the agricultural sector with CO₂ emissions from the energy sector to investigate the real contribution of bioenergy for low stabilization scenarios.As a result, we find that N₂O emissions due to energy crop production are a minor factor. Nevertheless, these co-emissions can be significant for the option of removing CO₂ from the atmosphere (by combining bioenergy use with carbon capture and storage (CCS) options) possibly needed at the end of the century for climate mitigation. Furthermore, our assessment shows that bioenergy crops will occupy large shares of available cropland and will require high rates of technological change at additional costs.     

Assessment of mitigation options for the energy system in Bulgaria

The Bulgarian greenhouse gas (GHG) emission profile reveals the energy sector as the most significant emission source and also as an area where great potential for GHG emissions reduction exists. Mitigation options in energy supply were selected considering the potential of fossil fuel substitution and new energy technology implementation in the context of the existing structure of energy system and projects for mid- and long-term development. Basically three modules of ENPEP were used: BALANCE — to calculate the energy flows and energy cost from primary fuel resources and fuel import to energy end-use, IMPACT — to calculate GHG emissions, and ELECTRIC — to project the electric system long-term development. Different mitigation measures combined in four scenarios were developed. The integrated mitigation scenario incorporated a mix of mitigation measures in the energy demand and supply. Implementation of CO₂ mitigation measures both in energy demand and energy supply would reduce the 2020 emission level by 34.3 Tg (29.1%), and by 544.2 Tg (21.7%) for the entire study period 2000 – 2020, compared to the baseline scenario.     

Local-scale analysis of carbon mitigation strategies: Tompkins County,New York,USA

The costs and potential for several carbon mitigation options were analyzed for Tompkins County, NY, within several categories: terrestrial carbon sequestration, local power generation, transportation, and energy end-use efficiency. The total county emissions are about 340 Gg C/year, with current biomass sequestration rates of about 121 Gg C/year. The potential for mitigation with the options examined, assuming full market penetration, amounts to at least 234 Gg C/year (69%), with 100 Gg C/year (29%) at no net cost to the consumer. Effective carbon mitigation strategies for this county based on costs per mg carbon and maximum potential include reforestation of abandoned agricultural lands for terrestrial carbon sequestration, biomass production for residential heating and co-firing in coal power plants, changes in personal behavior related to transportation (e.g., carpooling or using public transportation), installation of numerous residential energy-efficient products and development of local wind power. The principal barriers to the implementation of these approaches are discussed and policies for overcoming these barriers are analyzed.     

Energy efficiency, carbon emissions and economic development in Venezuela

Venezuela's vast natural resource base has largely shaped the nation's economic and energy-use patterns. Major opportunities exist for improving the efficiency of energy use in Venezuela and, consequently, restraining the growth of energy-related carbon emissions. This paper presents a detailed report of one potential development path for Venezuela and estimates the ensuing levels of energy demand and CO₂ emissions associated with pursuing this path through the year 2025. The results indicate that by adopting a development strategy that incorporates structural changes in the economy, fuel-switching measures and improved end-use efficiencies, Venezuela can introduce energy efficiency and carbon restraints as part of its economic development process.     

New power generation technology options under the greenhouse gases mitigation scenario in China

Climate change has become a global issue. Almost all countries, including China, are now considering adopting policies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The power generation sector, as a key source of GHG emissions, will also have significant potential for GHG mitigation. One of the key options is to use new energy technologies with higher energy efficiencies and lower carbon emissions. In this article, we use an energy technology model, MESSAGE-China, to analyze the trend of key new power generation technologies and their contributions to GHG mitigation in China. We expect that the traditional renewable technologies, high-efficiency coal power generation and nuclear power will contribute substantially to GHG mitigation in the short term, and that solar power, biomass energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS) will become more important in the middle and long term. In the meantime, in order to fully bring the role of technology progress into play, China needs to enhance the transfer and absorption of international advanced technologies and independently strengthen her ability in research, demonstration and application of new power generation technologies.     

Forests and global warming mitigation in Brazil: opportunities in the Brazilian forest sector for responses to global warming under the “clean development mechanism”

The Kyoto Protocol created global warming response opportunities through the clean development mechanism that allow countries like Brazil to receive investments from companies and governments wishing to offset their emissions of greenhouse gases. Brazil has a special place in strategies for combating global warming because its vast areas of tropical forest represent a potentially large source of emissions if deforested. A number of issues need to be settled to properly assign credit for carbon in the types of options presented by the Brazilian forest sector. These include definition of the units of carbon (permanent sequestration versus carbon-ton-years, the latter being most appropriate for forest options), the means of crediting forest reserve establishment, adoption of discounting or other time-preference weighting for carbon, definition of the accounting method (avoided emissions versus stock maintenance), and mechanisms to allow program contributions to be counted, rather than restricting consideration to free-standing projects. Silvicultural plantations offer opportunities for carbon benefits, but these depend heavily on the end use of the products. Plantations for charcoal have the greatest carbon benefits, but have high social impacts in the Brazilian context. Plantations also inherently compete with deforestation reduction options for funds. Forest management has been proposed as a global warming response option, but the assignment of any value to time makes this unattractive in terms of carbon benefits. However, reduced-impact logging can substantially reduce emissions over those from traditional logging practices. Slowing deforestation is the major opportunity offered by Brazil. Slowing deforestation will require understanding its causes and creating functional models capable of generating land-use change scenarios with and without different policy changes and other activities. Brazil already has a number of programs designed to slow deforestation, but the continued rapid loss of forest highlights the vast gulf that exists between the magnitude of the problem and the efforts to address it. The ups and downs of Brazil’s deforestation rate have so far had little to do with deliberate programs to control or influence the process. Achieving this control will require a major effort in which contributions from the private sector will be needed. Mechanisms are needed to make contributions to such programs eligible for carbon credit.     

Leveling the playing field of transportation fuels: Accounting for indirect emissions of natural gas

Natural gas transportation fuels are credited in prior studies with greenhouse gas emissions savings relative to petroleum-based fuels and relative to the total emissions of biofuels. These analyses, however, overlook a source of potentially large indirect emissions from natural gas transportation fuels, namely the emissions from incremental coal-fired generation caused by price-induced substitutions away from natural-gas-fired electricity generation. Because coal-fired generation emits substantially more greenhouse gases and criteria air pollutants than natural-gas-fired generation, this indirect coal-use change effect diminishes potential emissions savings from natural gas transportation fuels. Estimates from a parameterized multi-market model suggest the indirect coal-use change effect rivals in magnitude the indirect land-use change effect of biofuels and renders natural gas fuels as carbon intensive as petroleum fuels.     

Sectoral trends in global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions

Integrated assessment models have been used to project both baseline and mitigation greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Results of these scenarios are typically presented for a number of world regions and end-use sectors, such as industry, transport, and buildings. Analysts interested in particular technologies and policies, however, require more detailed information to understand specific mitigation options in relation to business-as-usual trends. This paper presents sectoral trend for two of the scenarios produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Global and regional historical trends in energy use and carbon dioxide emissions over the past 30 years are examined and contrasted with projections over the next 30 years. Macro-activity indicators are analyzed as well as trends in sectoral energy and carbon demand. This paper also describes a methodology to calculate primary energy and carbon dioxide emissions at the sector level, accounting for the full energy and emissions due to sectoral activities.     

Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

In this paper the LEAP, TIAM-ECN, and GCAM models were applied to evaluate the impact of a variety of climate change control policies (including carbon pricing and emission constraints relative to a base year) on primary energy consumption, final energy consumption, electricity sector development, and CO₂ emission savings of the energy sector in Argentina over the 2010–2050 period. The LEAP model results indicate that if Argentina fully implements the most feasible mitigation measures currently under consideration by official bodies and key academic institutions on energy supply and demand, such as the ProBiomass program, a cumulative incremental economic cost of 22.8 billion US$(2005) to 2050 is expected, resulting in a 16% reduction in GHG emissions compared to a business-as-usual scenario. These measures also bring economic co-benefits, such as a reduction of energy imports improving the balance of trade. A Low CO₂ price scenario in LEAP results in the replacement of coal by nuclear and wind energy in electricity expansion. A High CO₂ price leverages additional investments in hydropower. By way of cross-model comparison with the TIAM-ECN and GCAM global integrated assessment models, significant variation in projected emissions reductions in the carbon price scenarios was observed, which illustrates the inherent uncertainties associated with such long-term projections. These models predict approximately 37% and 94% reductions under the High CO₂ price scenario, respectively. By comparison, the LEAP model, using an approach based on the assessment of a limited set of mitigation options, predicts an 11.3% reduction. The main reasons for this difference include varying assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO₂ storage capacity, and the ability to import bioenergy. An emission cap scenario (2050 emissions 20% lower than 2010 emissions) is feasible by including such measures as CCS and Bio CCS, but at a significant cost. In terms of technology pathways, the models agree that fossil fuels, in particular natural gas, will remain an important part of the electricity mix in the core baseline scenario. According to the models there is agreement that the introduction of a carbon price will lead to a decline in absolute and relative shares of aggregate fossil fuel generation. However, predictions vary as to the extent to which coal, nuclear and renewable energy play a role.     

Leapfrogging over development? Promoting rural renewables for climate change mitigation

Renewable energy technologies have the potential to help solve two pressing problems. On one hand, carbon-free energy sources must play a role in climate change mitigation. On the other hand, renewables might help meet needs of rural people without access to modern energy services. However, if renewables are deployed to combat climate change (primarily resulting from emissions in the developed economies) then providing basic energy services in the developing world may be compromised. The tendency to conflate the two drivers by installing renewables in rural areas for carbon mitigation reasons rather than for development reasons could compromise both goals. The danger is supporting sub-optimal policies for mitigating carbon and for rural energy. This is problematic given the limited funds available for energy development and reducing greenhouse gases. This paper analyzes how these goals have been balanced by the Global Environment Facility (GEF). Project documents are used to determine whether incremental costs of installing renewables were covered by GEF funds and whether the costs are comparable with other carbon mitigation options. The results raise concerns about the effectiveness and appropriateness of GEF funding of such projects and highlight the importance of post-Kyoto framework design to reduce emissions and promote development.     

Sharing mitigation burden among sectors in China: Results from CEEPA

Based on the China Energy and Environmental Policy Analysis model which takes into account the current characters and potential reforms of energy markets in China, and from the perspective of economy-wide cost-effectiveness, this study aims to analyze how carbon mitigation burdens should be shared among key emission sectors in China, as well as how these sectors would behave to meet their burdens. This study finds that in general, allocating mitigation burdens based on historical emissions could realize the national target in a cost-effective way. However, some adjustments should be made to the coal, electricity, and transportation sectors. The mitigation targets for all sectors, especially for the coal sector, should not be set too high in the short-term. And the burden shared by the electricity sector should increase if electricity pricing is deregulated; meanwhile, energy efficiency and the energy input structure should be improved in the electricity sector.     

Development forecast of renewable energy power generation in China and its influence on the GHG control strategy of the country

CO₂ emissions of the electricity supply sector in China account for about half of the total volume in the country. Thus, reducing CO₂ emissions in China’s electricity supply sector will contribute significantly to the efforts of greenhouse gas (GHG) control in the country and the rest of the world. This paper introduces the development status of renewable energy and other main CO₂ mitigation options in power generation in China and makes a preliminary prediction of the development of renewable energy in the country for future decades. Besides, based on the situation in China, the paper undertakes a comprehensive analysis of CO₂ mitigation costs, mitigation potential, and fossil energy conversation capacity of renewable energy and other mitigation options, through which the influence of renewable energy on the mitigation strategy of China is analyzed.     

Pathways to Mexico’s climate change mitigation targets: A multi-model analysis

Mexico’s climate policy sets ambitious national greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets—30% versus a business-as-usual baseline by 2020, 50% versus 2000 by 2050. However, these goals are at odds with recent energy and emission trends in the country. Both energy use and GHG emissions in Mexico have grown substantially over the last two decades. We investigate how Mexico might reverse current trends and reach its mitigation targets by exploring results from energy system and economic models involved in the CLIMACAP-LAMP project. To meet Mexico’s emission reduction targets, all modeling groups agree that decarbonization of electricity is needed, along with changes in the transport sector, either to more efficient vehicles or a combination of more efficient vehicles and lower carbon fuels. These measures reduce GHG emissions as well as emissions of other air pollutants. The models find different energy supply pathways, with some solutions based on renewable energy and others relying on biomass or fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage. The economy-wide costs of deep mitigation could range from 2% to 4% of GDP in 2030, and from 7% to 15% of GDP in 2050. Our results suggest that Mexico has some flexibility in designing deep mitigation strategies, and that technological options could allow Mexico to achieve its emission reduction targets, albeit at a cost to the country.