Modeling the impact of climate variability on diarrhea-associated diseases in Taiwan (1996-2007)

Diarrhea is an important public health problem in Taiwan. Climatic changes and an increase in extreme weather events (extreme heat, drought or rainfalls) have been strongly linked to the incidence of diarrhea-associated disease.This study investigated and quantified the relationship between climate variations and diarrhea-associated morbidity in subtropical Taiwan. Specifically, this study analyzed the local climatic variables and the number of diarrhea-associated infection cases from 1996 to 2007. This study applied a climate variation-guided Poisson regression model to predict the dynamics of diarrhea-associated morbidity. The proposed model allows for climate factors (relative humidity, maximum temperature and the numbers of extreme rainfall), autoregression, long-term trends and seasonality, and a lag-time effect. Results indicated that the maximum temperature and extreme rainfall days were strongly related to diarrhea-associated morbidity. The impact of maximum temperature on diarrhea-associated morbidity appeared primarily among children (0-14 years) and older adults (40-64 years), and had less of an effect on adults (15-39 years). Otherwise, relative humidity and extreme rainfall days significantly contributed to the diarrhea-associated morbidity in adult. This suggested that children and older adults were the most susceptible to diarrhea-associated morbidity caused by climatic variation. Because climatic variation contributed to diarrhea morbidity in Taiwan, it is necessary to develop an early warning system based on the climatic variation information for disease control management.     

The impact of climate change on the distribution of rural income in Ethiopia

Recent evidence suggests that global climate change is likely to increase the incidence of environmental disasters, as well as the frequency of extreme weather events. As a result, it is generally recognized that climate and weather variability has negative impacts on households’ welfare relying mainly on agriculture. In Ethiopia, 95% of the population depends on rain-fed agriculture and consequently the economic impact of climate change is crucial for small-scale farmers’ food security and welfare. The objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the impact of climate change on rural households’ welfare in Ethiopia by using a Quantile Regression (QR) analysis. The main econometric results show that the elasticity of crop income with respect to rainfall varies across quantiles. It is confirmed that there is a non-linear relationship between climatic variables and income.     

Exceptional pattern of extreme rainfall variability at urban centre of Addis Ababa,Ethiopia

This paper examines the long-term historical changes in frequency and amplitude of rainfall extremes in two very close stations of Addis Ababa, the Addis Ababa Observatory (AAO) and Addis Ababa Bole (AAB) records including some surrounding measurements using the second half of 20^th century data. The method used to examine trends and oscillatory patterns is the quantile perturbation method, especially designed for extreme conditions. The result shows that the Addis Ababa Observatory (AAO) shows an exceptionally increasing trend in its extreme events while the rest of the stations show an oscillating pattern. Exceptional behaviour at AAO is also noticed from unique global climatic indices. Both Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Southern Oscillation Index are opposed to other stations. A possible reason for the increasing trend is linked with the growing urbanization that has been occurring in Addis Ababa city in the past decades. Nevertheless the variability of AAO rainfall extremes is within the uncertainty range that indicates natural variability. Although the change may not be severe at present, it is important to note the increasing trend to avoid serious consequences in the future.     

Quantification of climate change effects on extreme precipitation used for high resolution hydrologic design

Design of urban drainage structures should include the climatic changes anticipated over the technical lifetime of the system. In Northern Europe climate changes implies increasing occurrences of extreme rainfall. Three approaches to quantify the impact of climate changes on extreme rainfall are studied, all based on output from historical rain series of the present climate and output from Regional Climate Models. Two models are applied, one being based on an extreme value model, the Partial Duration Series Approach, and the other based on a stochastic rainfall generator model. Finally an approach is based on identification of areas, where the present climate resembles the anticipated future climate for the region in question. The results indicate that design intensities in Denmark are likely to be increased by 10–50% within the next 100 years. The increase in design intensities depend on the duration and the return period in question.     

A prototype tool for dynamic pluvial-flood emergency planning

Due to the increased frequency of extreme rainfall events caused by climate change, flooding in urban areas is becoming increasingly recurrent. Nevertheless, mitigation and response actions to flood events are still defined according to the best judgments of civil protection authorities, based on their experience and on simple flood modelling tools. In this paper we present the methodological structure of an innovative prototype tool for dynamic pluvial-flood emergency planning. The tool is aimed at helping civil protection authorities (and the population) in the preparation, mitigation and response to flood events. The 2009 flood in the Agualva village (Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal), is used to exemplify the model's calibration and to illustrate the prototype capabilities. The results highlight the importance of considering a dynamic approach in the design of pluvial-flood emergency planning.     

Contributions of meteorology to the phenology of cyanobacterial blooms: implications for future climate change

Cyanobacterial blooms are often a result of eutrophication. Recently, however, their expansion has also been found to be associated with changes in climate. To elucidate the effects of climatic variables on the expansion of cyanobacterial blooms in Taihu, China, we analyzed the relationships between climatic variables and bloom events which were retrieved by satellite images. We then assessed the contribution of each climate variable to the phenology of blooms using multiple regression models. Our study demonstrates that retrieving ecological information from satellite images is meritorious for large-scale and long-term ecological research in freshwater ecosystems. Our results show that the phenological changes of blooms at an inter-annual scale are strongly linked to climate in Taihu during the past 23 yr. Cyanobacterial blooms occur earlier and last longer with the increase of temperature, sunshine hours, and global radiation and the decrease of wind speed. Furthermore, the duration increases when the daily averages of maximum, mean, and minimum temperature each exceed 20.3 °C, 16.7 °C, and 13.7 °C, respectively. Among these factors, sunshine hours and wind speed are the primary contributors to the onset of the blooms, explaining 84.6% of their variability over the past 23 yr. These factors are also good predictors of the variability in the duration of annual blooms and determined 58.9% of the variability in this parameter. Our results indicate that when nutrients are in sufficiently high quantities to sustain the formation of cyanobacterial blooms, climatic variables become crucial in predicting cyanobacterial bloom events. Climate changes should be considered when we evaluate how much the amount of nutrients should be reduced in Taihu for lake management.     

Cold resistance of three species of earthworms (Oligohaeta,Lumbricidae) in Western Siberia

We studied cold resistance of Lumbricus rubellus, Octolasion lacteum, Dendrodrilus rubidus tenuis earthworms of Western Siberia (Tomsk) populations. Worms of these species turned out to be not resistant to low temperatures (100% mortality at ?3?°C), while cocoons, on the contrary, survived ?35?°C (L. rubellus) or below ?40?°C (D. rubidus tenuis). The worms’ populations under study do not have specific cold resistance. Their main characteristics are similar in Western Siberia and other geographically remote areas according to our studies. Due to their very high cold resistance, cocoons are indifferent to winter temperatures. Hibernation of the studied species of worms in the severe conditions of the West Siberian climate is possible only in the warmest habitats where minimum soil temperature in hibernation horizons does not fall below ?2?°C. Apparently, the proportion of such habitats in the region is high as 5 out of 12 surveyed biotopes had minimum temperature above the maximum tolerated by worms at a depth of 15?cm.     

Effects of climate change on the wash-off of volatile organic compounds from urban roads

The predicted changes in rainfall characteristics due to climate change could adversely affect stormwater quality in highly urbanised coastal areas throughout the world. This in turn will exert a significant influence on the discharge of pollutants to estuarine and marine waters. Hence, an in-depth analysis of the effects of such changes on the wash-off of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from urban roads in the Gold Coast region in Australia was undertaken. The rainfall characteristics were simulated using a rainfall simulator. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Multicriteria Decision tools such as PROMETHEE and GAIA were employed to understand the VOC wash-off under climate change. It was found that low, low to moderate and high rain events due to climate change will affect the wash-off of toluene, ethylbenzene, meta-xylene, para-xylene and ortho-xylene from urban roads in Gold Coast. Total organic carbon (TOC) was identified as predominant carrier of toluene, meta-xylene and para-xylene in < 1 μm to 150 μm fractions and for ethylbenzene in 150 μm to > 300 μm fractions under such dominant rain events due to climate change. However, ortho-xylene did not show such affinity towards either TOC or TSS (total suspended solids) under the simulated climatic conditions.     

Statistical evaluation on storm sewer design criteria under climate change in Seoul,South Korea

This study conducted statistical analysis under both stationary and non-stationary climate using rainfall data measured in Seoul, South Korea. The 50 year annual maximum rainfall data were analysed with generalised extreme value distribution and Gumbel distribution. Possible rainfall changes were predicted with nonstationary forms of the two distributions, considering time variable location parameters. The current storm sewer design criteria were assessed by reflecting climate change implications and expected lifetime performance. Expected return periods were reduced to 4.67, 8.66, 19.16 and 23.53 years for the current 10 min - 5, 10, 30 and 50 years. The newly suggested design criteria of 5, 10, 30 and 50 yr return period storm events were 5.3, 12, 48 and 107 years for the 10 min duration for a 50 year lifetime expectancy.     

A comparative analysis of short-term and long-term thermal comfort surveys in Iran

This paper describes two field studies of thermal comfort conducted in Ilam, a city located in western Iran. The first study consisted of two short-term surveys carried out during two climatically extreme periods—a hot summer and a cold winter—in 1998. The second study consisted of a long-term survey that collected data throughout the whole of 1999. Both studies were performed in naturally ventilated buildings. This paper shows some comparative analysis between the findings from the short-and long-term studies. For the hot season the neutral temperatures from the short-and long-term studies were 28.4 and 26.7 °C, respectively. For the cold season the short-and long-term neutral temperatures were 20.8 and 21.2 °C, respectively. The results show a very good agreement between both studies in Iran. The main points of interest from the studies were the variability of acceptable conditions, a good relationship between neutral temperature and room temperatures and also, more importantly, between indoor comfort and outdoor conditions. The findings reveal that the people in the study could achieve comfort at higher indoor air temperatures compared with the recommendations of international standards such as ISO 7730.     

Impacts of rainfall events on runoff water quality in an agricultural environment in temperate areas

Since a rise in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations has been observed for surface waters at least over the last two decades, a change in weather conditions (temperature and precipitations) has been proposed to partly explain this increase. While the majority of DOC delivery from soils to stream occurs during rainfall events, a better understanding of the rainfall influence on DOC release is needed. This study has been conducted in Brittany, western France, on agricultural experimental plots receiving either cattle manure (CM) or pig slurry (PS) as fertilizers in accordance with local practices. Each plot was instrumented with a flow meter and an auto sampler for runoff measurements. The results show that export of DOC during high intensity events is higher than during lower intensity rainfalls. Fertilization has a noticeable impact on total organic carbon (TOC) fluxes with an increase of five to seven folds for PS and CM respectively. If TOC shock load occurs shortly after the rainfall peak, DOC maximum appears with the first flush of the event. Organic carbon (OC) is mainly under colloidal (41.2%) and soluble (23.9%) forms during the first stage of a rainfall event and a control of rainfall intensity on OC colloidal transport is suggested. These findings highlight the potential risk of receiving water quality degradation due to the increase of heavier rainfall events with climate change in temperate areas.     

Nocturnal heat island effect in urban residential developments of Hong Kong

In hot humid climate, mitigating summer time nocturnal Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect is important in order to reduce the space-conditioning cost. Case studies of Belchers, Wah Fu-1 and -2 reveal the maximum nocturnal UHI in the order of 1.3 °C within an estate, and 0.4 °C between estates. The variables such as surface albedo, height-to-floor area ratio, sky view factor (SVF) and altitude are capable of explaining the nocturnal UHI in the case study areas with an explanatory power of 0.8. Although, during summer, the nocturnal UHI intensity is low relative to daytime UHI, thermal distress is high in night especially in Wah Fu-1 and -2. The paper will discuss the influence of the design variables on nocturnal UHI and its significance in relation to daytime UHI in the case study areas.     

Uncertainty in climate change impacts on streamflow in Be River Catchment,Vietnam

This paper focuses on the uncertainty in climate change impacts on streamflow in Be River Catchment. Uncertainty associated with GCM structure from a subset of CMIP3 (CCCMA CGCM3.1, CSIRO Mk30, IPSL CM4, MPI ECHAM5, NCAR CCSM3.0, UKMO HadGEM1, and UKMO HadCM3), SRES emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2), and prescribed increases in global mean temperature (0.5°C to 6°C) using SWAT model is investigated. For prescribed warming scenarios using HadCM3, linear decreases in mean annual streamflow range from 3.1 to 16.7%. Differences in projected annual streamflow between SRES emission scenarios using HadCM3 are small (?5.6% to ?4.6%). Under the A1B scenario and 2°C increase in global mean temperature using seven GCMs, there is substantial disparity, by ?2.9–25.5% and ?8.3–19.1%, respectively. It is generally reasonable to conclude that GCM structure‐related uncertainty is greater than that associated with the emission scenarios and climate sensitivity.     

Analysis and mapping of the heating and cooling degree-days for Morocco at variable base temperatures

The purpose of this study is to evaluate, analyse and draw up maps of the heating and cooling degree-days (CDD) for Morocco. Data from 37 weather stations around Morocco during 10 years (2000–2009) were used. The mean heating and CDD at base temperatures of 18°C and 21°C, respectively, were presented. The effect of the geographical conditions such as latitude, longitude and elevation on the heating and CDD was investigated using the regression approach and the counter maps were performed using the digital elevation model of Morocco. To provide more accurate information to building designers and engineers, the heating and CDD were also calculated and tabulated for cities representing the six Moroccan climatic regions at different base temperatures varying from 12°C to 20°C for heating and from 20°C to 28°C for cooling, with a step of 1°C.     

Real-time control of stormwater detention basins as an adaptation measure in mid-size cities

ABSTRACT

The performance of predictive real-time control (RTC) of outflow from a detention basin, integrating rainfall forecasts in the definition of the control rules, was assessed in terms of peak flow reduction in the receiving water body, improvement of the level of service of the stormwater network downstream and qualitative treatment of runoff. Evaluations were performed using the PCWMM software with rainfall data for a continuous 6-month period and four individual events, in a future climate. As compared to the situation with static control, peak flows at the outfall were reduced by an average of 46% with predictive RTC, and the downstream collector was used up to 22% less during rainfalls. Also, the detention time reached the desired period of 36 h for water quality control, for most of the simulated rainfall events. This demonstrates the usefulness of RTC as an adaption measure to climate change in existing urban areas.     

Investigation and numerical modelling of roof drainage systems under extreme events

In April 2003 the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) and a diverse group of interested parties began funding a number of major projects looking at the impacts of climate change on the built environment, transport and utilities. One of these projects, entitled AUDACIOUS, is concerned with the impact of climate change on all aspects of urban drainage systems. The main objective of this project is to investigate key aspects of the effects of climate change on existing drainage in urban areas, and hence provide tools for drainage managers and operators to adapt to uncertain future scenarios. A major element of this work is the development of a set of numerical models to simulate the performance of urban drainage systems under the type of extreme rainfall events associated with climate change. Once developed, it is intended to utilise such models in a diagnostic design capacity, to assist in the formulation of strategies to improve the performance of new and existing urban drainage systems under different climate change scenarios. This paper details the work that has been undertaken at Heriot-Watt University as part of the AUDACIOUS project. To date, this has involved the development of a numerical model to simulate the performance of roof drainage systems (both conventional and siphonic) under extreme rainfall events. The necessary experimental work is described, and the development of the model is detailed. Comparisons between model output and laboratory data are illustrated. Finally, conclusions are drawn regarding the progress to date, and plans for the next stage of the project are outlined.     

Implications of climate variability and change on urban and human health: A review

Urban regions have exceptional attributes that leave their dwellers and properties vulnerable to climate variability and change. Global temperatures continue to change, reaching new levels almost every year for the past two decades. This review examines the scientific evidence on the impact of climate change on urban and human health. It identifies research progress and gaps in how human society may respond to, adapt to, and prepare for the related changes. However, the causes are debated; climate variability and change are real. Climate variability and disaster risk are one of the threats to human health that adversely reinforce each other. Better knowledge of the linkage between climate change, variability and extreme weather-related illness is needed and can aid strategies to reduce the vulnerability. However, from this comprehensive review, it can be suggested that increased temperature and radiation are one of the major cause of some heat-related diseases such as skin cancer, heat stroke, heart disease and diarrhea which might strongly influenced by extreme climate events. On the other hand, since the extreme heat-related illnesses occurrence is increasing alarmingly, prevention and control have become a preference in public health programs and other disease control agencies. The study also suggests that public health should be everybody's business. Furthermore, public health education concepts can improve by a broader understanding of the subjective factors that underlie risk-taking and precautionary when exposed to extreme weather events.     

Landslide susceptibility mapping of Blue Nile and Tekeze River Basins using oblique rainfall-aspect rasters

This research was carried out to prepare the regional level landslide susceptibility maps by incorporating the oblique rainfall raster in the upper Blue Nile and Tekeze River basins. The oblique rainfall is the amount that actually falls on sloping surfaces, and varies considerably with slope inclination and aspect with respect to the prevailing trend of the wind direction. The monthly averaged precipitation data for the Kermit (July–September) and the Belg (March–April) rainfall seasons for the study area were acquired for the period of 1950 to 2000, and utilized to compute the oblique rainfall vectors at 40°, 45°, 50°, 55°, and 60° angles (representing “wind-driven” rainfall vectors). The weighted overlay index method using ArcGIS software was applied for this regional landslide susceptibility mapping (scales >1:100,000) by incorporating vertical rainfall intensity maps and aspect separately and as a combination (rainfall raster coupled with the slope aspect raster). The resulting landslide susceptibility maps were compared which reveals that the results obtained from using integrated rainfall/aspect raster’s (combined) were found to be more reasonable towards computing high to very high hazards than using aspect and rainfall rasters as separate layers. The susceptibility maps were validated with landslide inventory maps as well as documented rockslides, scattered throughout the study area. This reconnaissance level study could serve as guide maps in identifying those areas where more detailed landslide hazard mapping might, or should be, undertaken in the future for detailed investigations.     

应对气候变化和极端天气事件的适应性规划

鉴于气候变化和极端天气事件频发对我国的影响,本文介绍了应对气候变化事件的适应性规划研究及其对我国的借鉴意义。首先,总结了国外尤其是美国气候变化适应性规划研究的现状及其政府规划部门采取的适应性规划和措施。其次,讨论了适应性规划研究的内容和整体框架,概括了国外适应性规划的理论和研究方法。同时,从理论方法、方案实施和法律规章等方面分析了适应性规划遇到的问题和挑战。本文旨在探讨气候变化的适应性规划研究的必要性和研究框架,以引起学术、政府和民间对适应性规划研究的重视,为我国更好地应对未来气候变化的影响打下基础。     

Becoming places: urbanism/architecture/identity/power,by Kim Dovey,London, Routledge, 2009, 204 pp., £25.99, ISBN 978-0-415-41637-5 (paperback), £95.00, ISBN 978-0-415-41636-8 (hardback)

Urban planning can contribute to reducing vulnerability to the impacts of climate change (including the expected increased occurrence of extreme weather events) in metropolitan areas. However, lack of urban governance and planning focusing on the metropolitan area as a whole, and decisions that do not take into account sufficiently the occurrence of such events, can substantially increase the cost of recovery from weather-related disasters. This policy study connects climate change adaptation, urban planning and metropolitan governance issues in the Hungarian context, focusing on the June 2010 floods in the town of Fels?zsolca, in the Miskolc metropolitan area. A review of key literature is provided on the impacts of climate change in cities and on governing climate action in metropolitan areas. Events leading up to and following the June 2010 Fels?zsolca floods are analysed from the perspective of urban planning. Based on evaluation criteria including effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, institutional capacity, transparency, political feasibility and time, four policy options are identified for climate action-related governance and planning in metropolitan areas, in the Hungarian context. Based on the above criteria, formalized horizontal partnerships between local authorities within the metropolitan area are chosen as the most favourable and currently most feasible policy option in Hungary.