Refining landscape change models through outlier analysis in the Muskegon watershed of Michigan

Balancing natural resource protection and urban development is of concern to researchers, planners and citizens who are aware of the environmental, social and economic impacts of urban land use. Land-use change models can assist in finding this balance. An objective of this research was to build a better model of land-use change by integrating quantitative and qualitative techniques. A modelling approach is presented that combines statistical logistic regression with field-based outlier analysis. To this end, a collaborative effort between researchers, who are adept at building models, and local experts, who better understand the dynamics of landscape change in their communities, was undertaken. The findings indicate that this modelling approach is successful in improving overall model performance, as measured by pseudo r-squared value, and identifying additional drivers of land-use change, namely zoning, soil suitability and distance to highway interchange. Most importantly, this collaborative modelling process, involving researchers and local planners, has practical utility for land-use decision making.     

Land-use planning and distribution of threatened wildlife in a city of Japan

The relationships between the distribution patterns of threatened wildlife species and current land-use planning were investigated in a city of Japan to design a sustainable and land-use plan. Spatial distributions of 165 species of threatened wildlife (99 plants and 66 animals) were obtained by surveying most of the Chiba City, located in northeastern part of the Tokyo Bay area. Distribution maps were created within 334 rectangular cells, each measuring 1.1 km×0.9 km, oriented in the cardinal directions. Four land-use zones, i.e., urbanization promotion, parkland, agricultural and urbanization control, and agricultural promotion zones were identified.The distribution of these threatened species was analyzed in terms of green cover and zoning categories. Few threatened wildlife species were found in the urbanization promotion or parkland zone. Most were concentrated in the surrounding arable areas with green covers of more than 50%. Areas other than those set aside for intensive agricultural development in the agricultural promotion development zone contained the greatest number of species. These areas belonged to the agricultural and urbanization control zone, where the traditional agricultural landscape still remains in and around narrow valleys called “yatsu”.The results suggest that the regional biodiversity depends heavily on areas in which the traditional landscape remains relatively intact. Based on these results, a series of recommendations, including conservation and restoration of habitats, establishments of wildlife networks and corridors, and citizen involvement in conservation, were presented to the city studied. The data and recommendations will hopefully help the city, as well as many other areas faced with similar issues, devise future land-use plans that combine sustainable development with conservation of biodiversity and maintenance of high quality living environments.     

Correlations between watershed and reservoir characteristics, and algal blooms in subtropical reservoirs

This study examined the correlations between watershed and reservoir characteristics, and water quality parameters related to algal blooms in seven subtropical reservoirs. Analysis of the dissimilarity of physico-chemical parameters resulted in separation of the reservoirs into three main groups: four reservoirs with the highest proportion of agriculture and/or urban land use in their watersheds; two reservoirs with a high proportion of forest cover; and one small reservoir with a relatively pristine watershed intermediate between the other two groups. All reservoirs were dominated by cyanobacteria, and at times, had species capable of producing toxins. However, the three reservoirs with the lowest percentage forest cover ( approximately 50%) had the highest frequency and magnitude of toxic species, principally Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii. Analysis of dissimilarity of algal species composition resulted in three reservoir groups similar to that for the physico-chemical parameters, with the exception of the reservoir with the highest percentage urban land use being an outlier. Across all reservoirs, percentage forest cover in the watershed, watershed area and reservoir volume were all significantly correlated with algal cell concentrations and total nitrogen (TN), but not with chlorophyll a concentrations. Total phosphorus (TP) was only correlated with the proportion forest cover in the watershed, suggesting that reservoir volume and depth were of less importance for TP than for algal cell concentrations or TN. These results suggest that watershed pattern and reservoir characteristics, such as water volume and depth, have a measurable effect on the type of algal blooms in reservoirs.     

Micropolitan areas: Exploring the linkages between demography and land-cover change in the United States cities

Micropolitan statistical areas in the United States are important transitionary regions that may provide insights into the economic, demographic, and social forces driving urbanization. Land cover change may provide significant insights into the dynamics of these important transitionary units. Our work investigates three questions: (1) How is the national landscape changing within micropolitan statistical areas with regards to land cover? (2) Are land-cover conditions in micropolitan areas closer to rural or metropolitan areas or are they unique? (3) How closely are demographic patterns linked to land conversion for development within micropolitan areas?When compared to metropolitan and rural areas within the US, our results demonstrate that micropolitan areas are unique with regards to the total amount of developed land, as well as land conversion to development. Within the micropolitan areas, we show that demographic categories such as population, population density, or population growth are not adequate predictors of land-cover change and that the geographic patterns of land conversion for development may provide valuable insights into the impact of micropolitan areas on the US national landscape.     

A watershed at a watershed: the potential for environmentally sensitive area protection in the upper San Pedro Drainage Basin (Mexico and USA)

The watershed is advocated as an appropriate unit for ecological planning. Watersheds, or river drainage basins, can be understood through an ecological chorography. The upper San Pedro River basin of southern Arizona (USA) and northern Sonora (Mexico) is used as an example. This watershed is currently facing significant growth pressures. Rapid urbanization, cattle ranching, and irrigated agricultural pumping in the drainage basin are having negative environmental consequences, including water quality and supply problems, increased soil erosion, threats to wildlife habitats, and degradation of scenic resources. Copper mining, just outside the watershed, potentially impacts groundwater and the San Pedro riparian system. The protection of environmentally sensitive areas would help to maintain the biological integrity of the region. This paper focuses on the design of a framework for the identification of environmentally sensitive areas in the watershed and an analysis of existing government plans to protect such areas. The proposed framework can coordinate local, state, and federal efforts to achieve their protection objectives.     

Climate change perceptions and adaptive responses of smallholder farmers in central highlands of Ethiopia

This paper presents an assessment of smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate change, its impacts on agricultural production and adaptive responses in the central highlands of Ethiopia. The findings show that increased temperature and decreased rainfall are widely held perceptions; all respondents stated that they had observed increase in temperature and decrease in annual and seasonal rainfall amounts. The major impacts of climate change on local livelihoods as reported by respondents include decline in the length of growing period, increased crop damage by insects and pests, and increased severity of weed infestation. Some respondents also reported an increase in the incidence of livestock diseases. The adaptive responses by the smallholder farmers to the perceived or experienced climate change include adjustments in crop and livestock production activities, and investments in sustainable land management at household and community levels. Despite the range of autonomous adaptive responses adopted, climate change is negatively affecting smallholder agriculture, and thus rural livelihoods, in the study area, indicating the need for planned adaptation interventions.     

Understanding cultural landscape transformation: a re-photographic survey in Chitral, eastern Hindukush, Pakistan

Studies of contemporary land-cover change require an integrated approach because changes in cover and environmental conditions are primarily caused by land uses, which, in turn are governed by human driving forces in a specific socio-economic and cultural context. Therefore, a research perspective which bridges the gap between the more specialized approaches of natural and social sciences is required. The present study, investigates cultural landscape transformation in the high mountain oases of Chitral, lying in the eastern Hindukush. Comparisons of historical photographs and replicates serve to demonstrate change and persistence of cultural landscape structures. The focus is on the irrigated fields of individual villages and shortened in time scale to the last 30 years. Due to the general population growth, the development of the cultural landscape is characterized by recent village enlargements and corresponding extensions of cultivated areas while the individual field sizes decrease. Intensified irrigation of the cultivated terraces has led to a significant increase in hygrophilous trees and thickets along the water channels. The regional center of Chitral Town is characterized by a higher building density and expansion of urban structures. The results show that repeat photography can serve as a basis for monitoring contemporary landscape transformation.     

Population growth away from the coastal zone: Thirty years of land use change and nutrient export in the Altamaha River, GA

We used more than thirty years of water quality monitoring data collected by the United States Geological Survey at several stations in the Altamaha River and its tributaries to examine the relationship between population density, agricultural land use, and nutrient export from the watershed. Population densities in the Altamaha River watershed increased during the study period, most notably in the upper watershed near metropolitan Atlanta, while agricultural land use declined throughout the watershed. NO_x, TN and P in rivers were related to human population densities, while OC and NH₄⁺ concentrations in rivers were apparently related to agricultural land use. A general pattern of increasing NO_x and TN and decreasing NH₄⁺, P and OC over time throughout the watershed reflected changing population and land use. The overall average load from the Altamaha River to the coastal zone during the study period was 1.1, 5.6, 16.9, 0.9 and 262 kmol km^− 2 yr^− 1, delivering 40, 197, 596, 30, and 9213 · 10⁶ mol yr^− 1 of NH₄⁺, NO_x, TN, P and OC, respectively, to the coastal zone. The nutrient export patterns suggest that N and P loading to rivers in the Altamaha River watershed was greatest in the upper watershed where high population densities were found, and in-stream processing, dilution, and only moderate inputs during transit through the lower watershed resulted in relatively low export from the watershed to coastal waters.     

Simulating the impact of forest management scenarios in an agricultural landscape of southern Quebec, Canada, using a geographic cellular automata

Forest remnants are vital for the overall heterogeneity and health of rural landscapes. However, deforestation is a significant process afflicting large numbers of agroforested regions of the world. The Maskoutains regional county municipality (RCM) in southern Quebec, Canada, experiences intense deforestation that has reached critical levels. The goal of this study is to develop a geographic cellular automata (GCA) to model land-use change in this region and test the influence of different management scenarios on the fate of the forested remnants. The GCA was built using a 100 m cell size, a Moore neighborhood configuration, a 3 years time step resolution and probabilistic transition rules derived from the comparison of two land-use maps for the years 1999 and 2002. Four groups of management scenarios were tested: (1) status quo (SQ), (2) reduced deforestation (RD), (3) promotion of ligniculture (L), and (4) protection of forest connectivity (CONN). Results indicate that none of the scenarios succeed in maintaining the actual levels of forest area. However, certain scenarios (amongst the RD and CONN), significantly alter the loss of forest areas in the short to mid-term and delay the fragmentation, reduction, and isolation of forest patches.     

Floods,cyclones, drought and climate change in Bangladesh: a reality check

This paper seeks to correct prevailing assumptions about Bangladesh’s susceptibility to floods, tropical cyclones and drought, and the extent to which global warming has already affected the country’s climate. Analysis of 50 years of the country’s climate and hydrological data showed no evidence that rainfall amounts have changed or that floods, tropical cyclones and droughts have increased in frequency or severity. The extent to which global warming might have affected temperatures is made uncertain by the probably greater impact on temperatures at recording stations of widespread changes in land use and the heat-island effect resulting from urban expansion around the stations. The paper reviews both the diversity of environments in Bangladesh’s coastal area exposed to sea-level rise and the possible mitigation methods. Two major conclusions are drawn: that population increase and rapid urbanisation pose more serious immediate problems for development planning in Bangladesh than climate change; and that education at all levels needs to include practical field studies that could provide all students with a better understanding of the country’s diverse and locally complex environments.     

Change program management: Toward a capability for managing value-oriented,integrated multi-project change in its context

Program management has taken its position in project management research and in public and private organizations as a successful method for managing complex, uncertain, and large-scale changes. During the past 25 years, research has evolved from programs as the conceptual extension of projects to a rich field of empirical studies reflecting the special natures and contexts of change programs and their management, with unique theoretical foundations. To take stock of this recent history, in this article we analyze the patterns of previous empirical studies on change program management and their theoretical foundations. The goal is to identify and summarize proposals to guide forthcoming program management research. The results reveal three main themes of ongoing research: managing over the change program lifecycle, managing programs in their context, and program managers' capabilities. The roots of change program management in organization theories are apparent; structural contingency theory and information processing theories have dominated in previous empirical research, but are clearly being extended to agency, stakeholder, and actor-network theories. New research ideas are proposed for the use of programs in various types of changes, value creation and delivery through change programs, the profiles and capabilities of different actors in program management, the coexistence and interplay of multiple programs, and the complex stakeholder networks involved with change programs. When change becomes more prevalent in the organizations' dynamic contexts, there is an increasing need to develop program management toward an organizational capability for managing value-oriented, integrated, and multi-project change in complex stakeholder contexts.     

The importance of sediment and submerged aquatic vegetation as potential habitats for persistent strains of enterococci in a subtropical watershed

Recent evidence of extended survival of fecal indicator bacteria in sediments and submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) has raised concerns about using indicator bacteria to reliably detect fecal contamination. We monitored enterococci densities and population structure in water, sediment and SAV simultaneously at sites across a subtropical watershed (Tampa Bay, FL, USA) over one year to determine the extent to which each matrix serves as a potential reservoir of enterococci. SAV harbored significantly higher mean densities of enterococci than sediments, which harbored higher densities than water. Mean enterococci densities were also greater at sites located further upstream in the watershed. The population structure assessed by BOX-PCR genotyping was relatively dissimilar in each sample, although some similarities among samples suggested grouping by location. Strain diversity ranged from very high to negligible, with lowest overall diversity in lake samples taken during the summer. Several strains were highly abundant and cosmopolitan (found across sites, seasons, and matrices) and were identified by 16S rRNA gene sequencing as the Enterococcus species casseliflavus, faecalis, faecium, hirae, and mundtii. The proportional dominance of certain strains suggests the existence of persistent and possibly naturalized indicator bacteria populations that are not directly related to pollution events.     

Water and heat transport in boreal soils: implications for soil response to climate change

Soil water content strongly affects permafrost dynamics by changing the soil thermal properties. However, the movement of liquid water, which plays an important role in the heat transport of temperate soils, has been under-represented in boreal studies. Two different heat transport models with and without convective heat transport were compared to measurements of soil temperatures in four boreal sites with different stand ages and drainage classes. Overall, soil temperatures during the growing season tended to be over-estimated by 2-4 °C when movement of liquid water and water vapor was not represented in the model. The role of heat transport in water has broad implications for site responses to warming and suggests reduced vulnerability of permafrost to thaw at drier sites. This result is consistent with field observations of faster thaw in response to warming in wet sites compared to drier sites over the past 30 years in Canadian boreal forests. These results highlight that representation of water flow in heat transport models is important to simulate future soil thermal or permafrost dynamics under a changing climate.     

Water policy,climate change and adaptation in South Asia

Scarcity will affect nearly two-thirds of the world in the near future. The impacts of climate change are likely to exacerbate these problems and unless appropriate adaptation strategies are adopted, resilience is difficult to achieve. The paper surveys the water resources available in South Asian countries and takes into account the projected climate change impacts on these resources. The paper also analyses the water policies and formulates a conceptual water policy framework in which adaptation is central.     

Semi-natural grassland continuity, long-term land-use change and plant species richness in an agricultural landscape on Öland, Sweden

The study characterizes historical land-use change and the development of semi-natural grassland habitats, over 274 years, within a mosaic agricultural landscape (22 km²) on the island of Öland (Sweden). We also explore the relationship between previous land-use, habitat continuity and present-day vascular plant species richness in grassland patches. Land-cover maps, based on cadastral maps and aerial photographs, were produced for six time-periods between 1723/1733 and 1994/1997. In 1723/1733, the landscape was dominated by grasslands, with arable land surrounding the villages. The grassland area decreased throughout the study period and grassland patches became progressively more fragmented. Present-day grasslands represent 18% of the grassland area in 1723/1733. The land-use structure of the early 18th century is still evident in the modern landscape. The majority of the present-day grasslands are situated on former common grazing land and have had a continuity of at least 274 years: the remaining grasslands are younger and developed during the 20th century on arable or forested land. The proportion of plant species that depend on grazing and are characteristic of semi-natural grasslands significantly reflects the continuity and previous land-use of grassland sites. The study illustrates the way in which information on historical land-use and habitat continuity can help to explain the structuring of plant assemblages in semi-natural grasslands within the modern landscape.     

重塑非饱和黄土的变形、强度、屈服和水量变化特性

共做了３种应力路径的三轴试验,即：控制吸力的各向同性压缩试验、控制净平均应力的三轴收缩试验和同时控制吸力与净室压力的三轴排水剪切试验。研究结果表明：应力路径对土的变形和水量变化有较大影响;土－水特征曲线依赖于净平均应力;与净法向应力相关的摩擦角在各种吸力下近似等于饱和土的有效摩擦角;剪切强度与吸力的关系是非线性的;三轴剪切条件下的水量变化指标接近常数;屈服净平均应力和屈服偏应力随吸力增大;在净平均应力不变的条件下屈服吸力是一常数但不一定等于土样在历史上曾受过的最大吸力。根据试验资料,提出了一个新的吸力增加屈服条件,并建议了一个确定三轴剪切条件下的屈服应力的新方法。     

Impacts of climate and land‐cover changes on water resources in a humid subtropical watershed: a case study from East Texas,USA

This study investigates the response of water resources regarding the climate and land‐cover changes in a humid subtropical watershed during the period 1970–2009. A 0.7°C increase in temperature and a 16.3% increase in precipitation were observed. Temperature had a lower increase trend, and precipitation showed definite increasing trend compared to previous studies. The main trend of land‐cover change was conversion of vegetation and barren lands to developed and crop lands affected by human intervention, and forest and grass to bush/shrub which considered to be caused by natural climate system. Hydrologic responses to climate and land‐cover changes resulted in increases of surface run‐off (15.0%), soil water content (2.7%), evapotranspiration (20.1%) and a decrease in groundwater discharge (9.2%). We found that surface run‐off is relatively stable with precipitation, whereas groundwater discharge and soil water content are sensitive to changes in land cover, especially land cover brought about by human intervention.     

Simulating the impacts of future land use and climate changes on surface water quality in the Des Plaines River watershed, Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area, Illinois

Modeling the effects of past and current land use composition and climatic patterns on surface water quality provides valuable information for environmental and land planning. This study predicts the future impacts of urban land use and climate changes on surface water quality within Des Plaines River watershed, Illinois, between 2010 and 2030. Land Change Modeler (LCM) was used to characterize three future land use/planning scenarios. Each scenario encourages low density residential growth, normal urban growth, and commercial growth, respectively. Future climate patterns examined include the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) B1 and A1B groups. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to estimate total suspended solids and phosphorus concentration generated at a 10 year interval. The predicted results indicate that for a large portion of the watershed, the concentration of total suspended solids (TSS) would be higher under B1 and A1B climate scenarios during late winter and early spring compared to the same period in 2010; while the summer period largely demonstrates a reverse trend. Model results further suggest that by 2020, phosphorus concentration would be higher during the summer under B1 climate scenario compared to 2010, and is expected to wane by 2030. The projected phosphorus concentrations during the late winter and early spring periods vary across climate and land use scenarios. The analysis also denotes that middle and high density residential development can reduce excess TSS concentration, while the establishment of dense commercial and industrial development might help ameliorate high phosphorus levels. The combined land use and climate change analysis revealed land use development schemes that can be adopted to mitigate potential future water quality impairment. This research provides important insights into possible adverse consequences on surface water quality and resources under certain climate change and land use scenarios.     

Urban development in Adana,Turkey, and its environmental consequences

Rapid urbanization without effective management results in natural sources and a substantial part of the urban population being placed at risk from man‐made environmental problems, which become increasingly serious. This paper examines the environmental problems of Adana, the sixth largest and most developed city in Turkey. Adana faced huge problems of water, soil and noise pollution, solid and liquid waste elimination and loss of fertile agricultural areas. Rapid economic development – industrialization, population growth and unplanned urbanization – were determined to be the main causes of these environmental problems. Some recommendations are also made for mitigating and managing these problems in the sustainable urban development perspective.