State of the practice: An exploratory analysis of schedule estimation and software project success prediction

During discussions with a group of U.S. software developers we explored the effect of schedule estimation practices and their implications for software project success. Our objective is not only to explore the direct effects of cost and schedule estimation on the perceived success or failure of a software development project, but also to quantitatively examine a host of factors surrounding the estimation issue that may impinge on project outcomes. We later asked our initial group of practitioners to respond to a questionnaire that covered some important cost and schedule estimation topics. Then, in order to determine if the results are generalizable, two other groups from the US and Australia, completed the questionnaire. Based on these convenience samples, we conducted exploratory statistical analyses to identify determinants of project success and used logistic regression to predict project success for the entire sample, as well as for each of the groups separately. From the developer point of view, our overall results suggest that success is more likely if the project manager is involved in schedule negotiations, adequate requirements information is available when the estimates are made, initial effort estimates are good, take staff leave into account, and staff are not added late to meet an aggressive schedule. For these organizations we found that developer input to the estimates did not improve the chances of project success or improve the estimates. We then used the logistic regression results from each single group to predict project success for the other two remaining groups combined. The results show that there is a reasonable degree of generalizability among the different groups.     

Antecedents and consequences of team potency in software development projects

Developing new software quickly, successfully, and at low cost is critical in organizations. Ways of assessing the effectiveness of development teams has highlighted measures of factors, such as teamwork, group cohesiveness, and team integration, but the use of group potency theory (the collective belief of a group that it can be effective) is rare. In our study, we investigated antecedents of and consequences to group potency in software development project teams. By examining 53 software development project teams collected from small and medium-sized software firms in Turkey, we found, that team potency positively affected speed-to-market, development cost, and market success of the product. We also found that trust among project team members, past experiences of the members, and team empowerment had a positive impact on the team potency during the project. Managerial and theoretical implications are discussed.     

Team building criteria in software projects: A mix-method replicated study

ContextThe internal composition of a work team is an important antecedent of team performance and the criteria used to select team members play an important role in determining team composition. However, there are only a handful of empirical studies about the use of team building criteria in the software industry.ObjectiveThe goal of this article is to identify criteria used in industrial practice to select members of a software project team, and to look for relationships between the use of these criteria and project success. In addition, we expect to contribute with findings about the use of replication in empirical studies involving human factors in software engineering.MethodOur research was based on an iterative mix-method, replication strategy. In the first iteration, we used qualitative research to identify team-building criteria interviewing software project managers from industry. Then, we performed a cross-sectional survey to assess the correlations of the use of these criteria and project success. In the second iteration, we used the results of a systematic mapping study to complement the set of team building criteria. Finally, we performed a replication of the survey research with variations to verify and improve the results.ResultsOur results showed that the consistent use team building criteria correlated significantly with project success, and the criteria related to human factors, such as personality and behavior, presented the strongest correlations. The results of the replication did not reproduce the results of the original survey with respect to the correlations between criteria and success goals. Nevertheless, the variations in the design and the difference in the sample of projects allowed us to conclude that the two results were compatible, increasing our confidence on the existence of the correlations.ConclusionOur findings indicated that carefully selecting team member for software teams is likely to positively influence the projects in which these teams participate. Besides, it seems that the type of development method used can moderate (increase or decrease) this influence. In addition, our study showed that the choice of sampling technique is not straightforward given the many interacting factors affecting this type of investigation.     

Performance on agile teams: Relating iteration objectives and critical decisions to project management success factors

ContextWhile project management success factors have long been established via the golden triangle, little is known about how project iteration objectives and critical decisions relate to these success factors. It seems logical that teams’ iteration objectives would reflect project management success factors, but this may not always be the case. If not, how are teams’ objectives for iterations differing from the golden triangle of project management success factors?ObjectiveThis study identifies iteration objectives and the critical decisions that relate to the golden triangle of project management success factors in agile software development teams working in two-week iterations.MethodThe author conducted semi-structured interviews with members across three different agile software development teams using a hybrid of XP and Scrum agile methodologies. Iteration Planning and Retrospective meetings were also observed. Interview data was transcribed, coded and reviewed by the researcher and two independently trained research assistants. Data analysis involved organizing the data to identify iteration objectives and critical decisions to identify whether they relate to project management success factors.ResultsAgile teams discussed four categories of iteration objectives: Functionality, Schedule, Quality and Team Satisfaction. Two of these objectives map directly to two aspects of the golden triangle: schedule and quality. The agile teams’ critical decisions were also examined to understand the types of decisions the teams would have made differently to ensure success, which resulted in four categories of such decisions: Quality, Dividing Work, Iteration Amendments and Team Satisfaction.ConclusionThis research has contributed to the software development and project management literature by examining iteration objectives on agile teams and how they relate to the golden triangle of project management success factors to see whether these teams incorporate the golden triangle factors in their objectives and whether they include additional objectives in their iterations. What’s more, this research identified four critical decisions related to the golden triangle. These findings provide important insight to the continuing effort to better assess project management success, particularly for agile teams.     

A survey study of critical success factors in agile software projects

While software is so important for all facets of the modern world, software development itself is not a perfect process. Agile software engineering methods have recently emerged as a new and different way of developing software as compared to the traditional methodologies. However, their success has mostly been anecdotal, and research in this subject is still scant in the academic circles. This research study was a survey study on the critical success factors of Agile software development projects using quantitative approach.

Based on existing literature, a preliminary list of potential critical success factors of Agile projects were identified and compiled. Subsequently, reliability analysis and factor analysis were conducted to consolidate this preliminary list into a final set of 12 possible critical success factors for each of the four project success categories – Quality, Scope, Time, and Cost.

A survey was conducted among Agile professionals, gathering survey data from 109 Agile projects from 25 countries across the world. Multiple regression techniques were used, both at the full regression model and at the optimized regression model via the stepwise screening procedure. The results revealed that only 10 out of 48 hypotheses were supported, identifying three critical success factors for Agile software development projects: (a) Delivery Strategy, (b) Agile Software Engineering Techniques, and (c) Team Capability.

Limitations of the study are discussed together with interpretations for practitioners. To ensure success of their projects, managers are urged to focus on choosing a high-caliber team, practicing Agile engineering techniques and following Agile-style delivery strategy.     

Impacts of collaborative IS on software development project success in Indian software firms: a service perspective

The collaborative work of team members has become a common occurrence in software development projects. Collaborative information systems (CIS), designed to facilitate and support teamwork, appear critical for software project success. However, the quality and convenience of the services and functions delivered by CIS have not received robust attention in academia. Hence, the current study investigates the role of the CIS service characteristics of service quality and service convenience in teamwork and software development project success using DeLone and McLean’s (D&M) Information System (IS) Success Model as the theoretical framework. This study incorporates the success indicators of teamwork quality, teamwork performance, and project success as measured by software quality and project performance. Data from 153 Indian software companies confirm that collaborative IS services, as well as teamwork quality/performance, are central to software development project success. We believe that the findings of this study will be helpful to project managers of software development firms.     

浅析软件开发项目的成败关键

每个软件开发项目都要经过漫长的生命周期,有很多因素可以影响其成功与否。该文从四个方面阐述了软件开发项目的成败关键,并给出了一些案例。     

User satisfaction and system success: an empirical exploration of user involvement in software development

For over four decades user involvement has been considered intuitively to lead to user satisfaction, which plays a pivotal role in successful outcome of a software project. The objective of this paper is to explore the notion of user satisfaction within the context of the user involvement and system success relationship. We have conducted a longitudinal case study of a software development project and collected qualitative data by means of interviews, observations and document analysis over a period of 3 years. The analysis of our case study data revealed that user satisfaction significantly contributes to the system success even when schedule and budget goals are not met. The case study data analysis also presented additional factors that contribute to the evolution of user satisfaction throughout the project. Users’ satisfaction with their involvement and the resulting system are mutually constituted while the level of user satisfaction evolves throughout the stages of software development process. Effective management strategies and user representation are essential elements of maintaining an acceptable level of user satisfaction throughout software development process.     

浅析软件开发项目的成败关键

每个软件开发项目都要经过漫长的生命周期,有很多因素可以影响其成功与否。该文从四个方面阐述了软件开发项目的成败关键．并给出了一些案例。     

An empirical study on the implementation and evaluation of a goal-driven software development risk management model

ContextBuilding a quality software product in the shortest possible time to satisfy the global market demand gives an enterprise a competitive advantage. However, uncertainties and risks exist at every stage of a software development project. These can have an extremely high influence on the success of the final software product. Early risk management practice is effective to manage such risks and contributes effectively towards the project success.ObjectiveDespite risk management approaches, a detailed guideline that explains where to integrate risk management activities into the project is still missing. Little effort has been directed towards the evaluation of the overall impact of a risk management method. We present a Goal-driven Software Development Risk Management Model (GSRM) and its explicit integration into the requirements engineering phase and an empirical investigation result of applying GSRM into a project.MethodWe combine the case study method with action research so that the results from the case study directly contribute to manage the studied project risks and to identify ways to improve the proposed methodology. The data is collected from multiple sources and analysed both in a qualitative and quantitative way.ResultsWhen risk factors are beyond the control of the project manager and project environment, it is difficult to control these risks. The project scope affects all the dimensions of risk. GSRM is a reasonable risk management method that can be employed in an industrial context. The study results have been compared against other study results in order to generalise findings and identify contextual factors.ConclusionA formal early stage risk management practice provides early warning related to the problems that exists in a project, and it contributes to the overall project success. It is not necessary to always consider budget and schedule constraints as top priority. There exist issues such as requirements, change management, and user satisfaction which can influence these constraints.     

PERT技术在软件项目管理中的研究与实现

软件开发是一项高难度复杂的工作,在软件开发过程中,项目的进度管理是决定项目能否成功的关键因素.在对软件开发的项目管理技术方法上进行了系统的研究后,提出一套基于PERT技术的软件项目进度控制和绘图系统,解决了大部分项目管理软件在绘图和跟踪控制上的不足.基于关键路径的理论,用网络图直观地展现出软件开发项目的进度,网络图的布局更加美观合理,箭线交叉少,使PERT技术的应用变得更加容易、更加直观,对各部门推广使用PERT技术及完善ERP系统具有非常重要的现实意义.     

The optimization of success probability for software projects using genetic algorithms

The software development process is usually affected by many risk factors that may cause the loss of control and failure, thus which need to be identified and mitigated by project managers. Software development companies are currently improving their process by adopting internationally accepted practices, with the aim of avoiding risks and demonstrating the quality of their work.This paper aims to develop a method to identify which risk factors are more influential in determining project outcome. This method must also propose a cost effective investment of project resources to improve the probability of project success.To achieve these aims, we use the probability of success relative to cost to calculate the efficiency of the probable project outcome. The definition of efficiency used in this paper was proposed by researchers in the field of education. We then use this efficiency as the fitness function in an optimization technique based on genetic algorithms. This method maximizes the success probability output of a prediction model relative to cost.The optimization method was tested with several software risk prediction models that have been developed based on the literature and using data from a survey which collected information from in-house and outsourced software development projects in the Chilean software industry. These models predict the probability of success of a project based on the activities undertaken by the project manager and development team. The results show that the proposed method is very useful to identify those activities needing greater allocation of resources, and which of these will have a higher impact on the projects success probability.Therefore using the measure of efficiency has allowed a modular approach to identify those activities in software development on which to focus the project's limited resources to improve its probability of success. The genetic algorithm and the measure of efficiency presented in this paper permit model independence, in both prediction of success and cost evaluation.     

Evolution of cognitive trust in distributed software development teams: a punctuated equilibrium model

A significant body of literature has addressed trust in distributed teams. However, several important issues such as 1) trust in distributed software development teams, 2) the evolution of cognitive trust, and 3) the role of communication media in trust development have not been adequately addressed. The objective of this paper is to address the void discussed above by conducting a longitudinal study to examine the evolution of cognitive trust among distributed software development teams from USA and Norway or Switzerland. The results suggest that cognitive trust develops in accordance with the tenets of the Punctuated Equilibrium Model (PEM). Additionally, our study also suggests that different factors are important for trust building during the different stages of a software development project. The findings contribute to the body of trust research and to practice by identifying stages in a software development project during which managerial intervention can help elevate trust levels.     

Determinants of software quality: A survey of information systems project managers

Software quality is important for the success of any information systems (IS). In this research, we find the determinants of software quality. We used five attributes for software quality: system reliability, maintainability, ease of use, usefulness, and relevance. By surveying 112 IS project managers, we collected data about their perceptions on the software quality attributes and their determinants. We arrived at six factors through exploratory factor analysis. We determined the individual factors that impacted the software quality attributes; for example, reliability is associated with responsiveness of IS department; ease of use is influenced by the capabilities of users and attitude of management; and usefulness is impacted by capabilities of IS department and responsiveness of IS department. We show that organizational factors are more important than technical factors in impacting software quality in IS projects. We provide implications of our research to practice and to future research.     

Prioritizing and Assessing Software Project Success Factors and Project Characteristics using Subjective Data

This paper presents a method for analyzing the impact software project factors have on project success as defined by project success factors that have been prioritized. It is relatively easy to collect measures of project attributes subjectively (i.e., based on expert judgment). Often Likert scales are used for that purpose. It is much harder to identify whether and how a large number of such ranked project factors influence project success, and to prioritize their influence on project success. At the same time, it is desirable to use the knowledge of project personnel effectively. Given a prioritization of project goals, it is shown how some key project characteristics can be related to project success. The method is applied in a case study consisting of 46 projects. For each project, six success factors and 27 project attributes were measured. Successful projects show common characteristics. Using this knowledge can lead to better control and software project management and to an increased likelihood of project success.     

Evaluating logistic regression models to estimate software project outcomes

ContextSoftware has been developed since the 1960s but the success rate of software development projects is still low. During the development of software, the probability of success is affected by various practices or aspects. To date, it is not clear which of these aspects are more important in influencing project outcome.ObjectiveIn this research, we identify aspects which could influence project success, build prediction models based on the aspects using data collected from multiple companies, and then test their performance on data from a single organization.MethodA survey-based empirical investigation was used to examine variables and factors that contribute to project outcome. Variables that were highly correlated to project success were selected and the set of variables was reduced to three factors by using principal components analysis. A logistic regression model was built for both the set of variables and the set of factors, using heterogeneous data collected from two different countries and a variety of organizations. We tested these models by using a homogeneous hold-out dataset from one organization. We used the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to compare the performance of the variable and factor-based models when applied to the homogeneous dataset.ResultsWe found that using raw variables or factors in the logistic regression models did not make any significant difference in predictive capability. The prediction accuracy of these models is more balanced when the cut-off is set to the ratio of success to failures in the datasets used to build the models. We found that the raw variable and factor-based models predict significantly better than random chance.ConclusionWe conclude that an organization wishing to estimate whether a project will succeed or fail may use a model created from heterogeneous data derived from multiple organizations.     

Problems and their mitigation in system and software architecting

ContextToday, software and embedded systems act as enablers for developing new functionality in traditional industries such as the automotive, process automation, and manufacturing automation domains. This differs from 25–30 years ago when these systems where based on electronics and electro-mechanical solutions. The architecture of the embedded system and of the software is important to ensure the qualities of these applications. However, the effort of designing and evolving the architecture is in practice often neglected during system development, whilst development efforts are centered on implementing new functionality.ObjectiveWe present problems and success factors that are central to the architectural development of software intensive systems in the domain of automotive and automation products as judged by practitioners.MethodThe method consisted of three steps. First, we used semi-structured interviews to collect data in an exploratory manner. As a second step, a survey based on problems extracted from the interview data was used to investigate the occurrence of these problems at a wider range of organizations. In order to identify and suggest how to mitigate the problems that were considered important, we finally performed root cause analysis workshops, and from these a number of success factors were elicited.ResultsA total of 21 problems have been identified based on the interview data, and these are related to the technical, organizational, project, and agreement processes. Based on the survey results, the following four problems were selected for a root cause analysis: (1) there is a lack of process for architecture development, (2) there is a lack of method or model to evaluate the business value when choosing the architecture, (3) there is a lack of clear long-term architectural strategy, and (4) processes and methods are less valued than knowledge and competence of individuals.ConclusionIn conclusion, the following identified success factors are crucial components to be successful in developing software intensive systems: (1) define an architectural strategy, (2) implement a process for architectural work, (3) ensure authority for architects, (4) clarify the business impact of the architecture, and (5) optimize on the project portfolio level instead of optimizing each project.     

Understanding the gap between software process practices and actual practice in very small companies

This paper reports on a grounded theory to study into software developers’ use of software development processes in actual practice in the specific context of very small companies. This study was conducted in three very small software product companies located in Ecuador. The data collection was based on semi-structured qualitative interviews with software project managers, focus group with software developers and was supplemented by the literature and document studies. We interviewed two types of participants (managers and developers), so as to ensure that we elicited a holistic perspective of how they approached the software development process in actual practice. The goal was to study what practices are actually used and their opinion and attitude toward the potential adopting of an international standard (ISO/IEC 29110) specifically designed for very small companies. With the collected data, we performed an analysis utilizing grounded theory coding techniques, as this methodology promotes the focus on uncovering the real concerns of the participants. This study highlighted three areas of concern: customer, software product and development tasks coordination and tracking. The findings in this study give an insight toward the work products as they relate to software development process practices in very small companies and the important factors that must be considered to assist project success.     

Weil Aufwand wichtig ist!

Project effort is critical for the success of software development projects. It has a major impact on whether constraints in time and budget can be complied with. But although requirements affect project effort, requirements engineering (RE) methods are not capable of assessing project effort. In this paper, we present our mapping model for assessing project effort (MMAPE). MMAPE incorporates into RE the assessment of project effort resulting from requirements for software development projects. It maps semantics of the RE method KAOS onto structures that are counted in function point analyses. We applied MMAPE in a case study on a software development project within a large financial institution. The validity of MMAPE is supported, since we found throughout consistent statements between information provided by MMAPE and data gathered from the case.     

Identifying some important success factors in adopting agile software development practices

Agile software development (ASD) is an emerging approach in software engineering, initially advocated by a group of 17 software professionals who practice a set of “lightweight” methods, and share a common set of values of software development. In this paper, we advance the state-of-the-art of the research in this area by conducting a survey-based ex-post-facto study for identifying factors from the perspective of the ASD practitioners that will influence the success of projects that adopt ASD practices. In this paper, we describe a hypothetical success factors framework we developed to address our research question, the hypotheses we conjectured, the research methodology, the data analysis techniques we used to validate the hypotheses, and the results we obtained from data analysis. The study was conducted using an unprecedentedly large-scale survey-based methodology, consisting of respondents who practice ASD and who had experience practicing plan-driven software development in the past. The study indicates that nine of the 14 hypothesized factors have statistically significant relationship with “Success”. The important success factors that were found are: customer satisfaction, customer collaboration, customer commitment, decision time, corporate culture, control, personal characteristics, societal culture, and training and learning.