Future demand of petroleum products in India

This paper examines the long-run equilibrium relationship between total petroleum products consumption and economic growth in India for the period 1970–1971 to 2001–2002 using cointegration and error-correction modeling approach. Augmented Dickey–Fuller tests reveal that both the series, after logarithmic transformation, are non-stationary and individually integrated of order one. The empirical results suggest that the series are cointegrated. The ‘long-term demand elasticity for petroleum products’ has been estimated. Furthermore, as a special case, similar sort of exercise between the consumption of middle-distillates and economic growth in India using annual data for the time span 1974–1975 to 2001–2002 has been carried out, which also confirms the existence of cointegration. In-sample forecasts fitted well against actual numbers. Finally, the paper forecasts total petroleum products and middle-distillates demands till 2011–2012 and provide an idea about the investment required in refinery sector in India till 2011–2012.     

Energy consumption and economic activities in Iran

The causal relationship between overall GDP, industrial and agricultural value added and consumption of different kinds of energy are investigated using vector error correction model for the case of Iran within 1967–2003. A long-run unidirectional relationship from GDP to total energy and bidirectional relationship between GDP and gas as well as GDP and petroleum products consumption for the whole economy was discovered. Causality is running from value added to total energy, electricity, gas and petroleum products consumption and from gas consumption to value added in industrial sector. The long-run bidirectional relations hold between value added and total energy, electricity and petroleum products consumption in the agricultural sector. The short-run causality runs from GDP to total energy and petroleum products consumption, and also industrial value added to total energy and petroleum products consumption in this sector.     

Determinants of import demand for non-renewable energy (petroleum) products: Empirical evidence from Nigeria

This study estimated determinants of import demand for refined petroleum products in Nigeria for the period 1984–2013. It employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test cointegration method and analysed both long-run and short-run determinants of import demand for total and specific petroleum products.In the long-run, aggregate and sectoral incomes are significant determinants of import of refined kerosene. Further, real effective exchange rate (REER), aggregate income (GDP), manufacturing sector's income, domestic energy production (DEP) and population growth rate (PGR) are drivers of import of refined motor spirit Moreover, REER, DEP and manufacturing sector's income are propellers of import of refined distillate fuel. Also, REER and total output of petroleum products are major drivers of total import of refined petroleum products.Short-run results show that previous period GDP, PGR and manufacturing and service sectors' incomes are determinants of import demand for refined kerosene. Moreover, REER, GDP, previous PGR and manufacturing sector's income exert significant effects on the import of refined motor spirit. Further, significant effects of REER, DEP, previous PGR, domestic output of the product and manufacturing and service sectors' incomes on the import demand for distillate fuel were found.Policy implications of the foregoing are articulated in the paper.     

Energy consumption and economic growth in New Zealand: Results of trivariate and multivariate models

This study examines the energy consumption–growth nexus in New Zealand. Causal linkages between energy and macroeconomic variables are investigated using trivariate demand-side and multivariate production models. Long run and short run relationships are estimated for the period 1960–2004. The estimated results of demand model reveal a long run relationship between energy consumption, real GDP and energy prices. The short run results indicate that real GDP Granger-causes energy consumption without feedback, consistent with the proposition that energy demand is a derived demand. Energy prices are found to be significant for energy consumption outcomes. Production model results indicate a long run relationship between real GDP, energy consumption and employment. The Granger-causality is found from real GDP to energy consumption, providing additional evidence to support the neoclassical proposition that energy consumption in New Zealand is fundamentally driven by economic activities. Inclusion of capital in the multivariate production model shows short run causality from capital to energy consumption. Also, changes in real GDP and employment have significant predictive power for changes in real capital.     

China on the move: Oil price explosion?

Rapid expansion of highway and jet traffic in China has created a surge of demand for oil products, putting pressure on world energy markets and petroleum product prices. This paper examines trends in freight and passenger traffic to assess how growth in China's transport demand relates to growth in China's economy, as well as the energy intensity of transport. Based on assumptions about demand elasticity and energy intensity, a range of scenarios is developed for China's oil demand through 2020. Incremental oil demand from China's transport sector is then compared with world oil demand projections to assess the likely impact on world oil prices. The finding is that new demand from China's transport sector would likely raise world oil prices in 2020 by 1–3% in reference scenarios or by 3–10% if oil supply investment is constrained.     

European energy security: The future of Norwegian natural gas production

The European Union (EU) is expected to meet its future growing demand for natural gas by increased imports. In 2006, Norway had a 21% share of EU gas imports. The Norwegian government has communicated that Norwegian gas production will increase by 25–40% from today's level of about 99 billion cubic meters (bcm)/year. This article shows that only a 20–25% growth of Norwegian gas production is possible due to production from currently existing recoverable reserves and contingent resources. A high and a low production forecast for Norwegian gas production is presented. Norwegian gas production exported by pipeline peaks between 2015 and 2016, with minimum peak production in 2015 at 118 bcm/year and maximum peak production at 127 bcm/year in 2016. By 2030 the pipeline export levels are 94–78 bcm. Total Norwegian gas production peaks between 2015 and 2020, with peak production at 124–135 bcm/year. By 2030 the production is 96–115 bcm/year. The results show that there is a limited potential for increased gas exports from Norway to the EU and that Norwegian gas production is declining by 2030 in all scenarios. Annual Norwegian pipeline gas exports to the EU, by 2030, may even be 20 bcm lower than today's level.     

Overview of current energy-efficiency policies in China

From 1970 to 2001, China was able to significantly limit energy demand growth through aggressive energy-efficiency programs. Energy use per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) declined by approximately 5% per year during this period. However, the period 2002–2005 saw energy use per unit of GDP increase an average of 3.8% per year. To stem this out-of-control growth in energy demand, in November 2005 the Chinese government enunciated a mandatory goal of 20% reduction of energy intensity between 2006 and 2010. The National People's Congress passed legislation identifying the National Reform and Development Commission as the lead agency to design and carry out programs in support of this goal. These policies and programs, created after almost a decade of decline of the energy-efficiency policy apparatus, have had considerable impact. Although initial efforts have not been sufficient to meet the annual declines required to reach the ambitious 20% energy intensity target, the latest reports indicate that China may now be on track to meet this goal. The paper provides an assessment of these policies and programs to begin to understand issues that will play a critical role in China's energy and economic future. Activities undertaken in China will have a significant influence on the global effort to reduce the growth, and later the absolute quantity, of greenhouse gas emissions.     

Gas-on-gas competition in Shanghai

In common with other major economic centres in China, Shanghai's energy consumption has been increasing rapidly to support the high growth rate of its economy. To achieve rational, efficient and clean use of energy, together with improved environmental quality within the city, the Shanghai municipal government has decided to expand the supply and utilization of natural gas. Shanghai plans to increase the share of natural gas in its primary energy mix to 7 per cent by 2010, up from 3 per cent in 2005. This increase in natural gas demand has to be matched with a corresponding increase in supply. To date, the Shanghai region has relied on offshore extracted natural gas but this supply is limited due to the size of the reserves. Since 2005, the West–East pipeline has provided an alternative for Shanghai but demands from other regions could reduce the potential for expanding supplies from that source. Since domestic production will not be sufficient to meet demand in the near future, Shanghai is building a liquefied natural gas (LNG) regasification terminal at the Yangshan deep-water port that would allow an additional supply of more than 3 billion cubic meters per year of natural gas. Malaysia has already committed to supply LNG to the Shanghai terminal at a price that is significantly higher than the wholesale “city-gate” price for natural gas transported via pipeline, but still lower than the gas price to end-use consumers. The presence of both an LNG terminal and a transmission pipeline that connects Shanghai to domestic gas-producing regions will create gas-on-gas competition. This study assesses the benefits of introducing such competition to one of China's most advanced cities under various scenarios for demand growth. In this paper, the impact of imported LNG on market concentration in Shanghai's gas market will be analysed using the Herfindahl–Hirschmann index (HHI) and the residual supply index (RSI). Our results show that Shanghai remains a supply-constrained gas market that will continue to rely upon gas supplies from the western provinces and imported LNG. After 2017, the gas market in Shanghai can be regarded as unconcentrated since its HHI fall below 1800 under a very high growth scenario. In terms of RSI, the gas market can be considered competitive at low, moderate and high growth consumption between 2012 and 2015.     

Scenario for growth of electricity in India

India's GDP has been growing quite fast in recent past and it is forecast that it would continue to do so in the coming several decades. To realize the growth in GDP, it is necessary that corresponding growth in demand of primary energy as well as electricity is estimated and plans are made to meet the demand. Our estimate indicates that even after recognizing that energy intensity of GDP would continue to decline as in the past, the total electricity generation by the middle of the century would be an order of magnitude higher than the generation in the fiscal year 2002–2003. This calls for developing a strategy for growth of electricity generation based on a careful examination of all issues related to sustainability particularly abundance of available energy resources, diversity of sources of energy supply and technologies, security of supplies and self-sufficiency. This paper presents a scenario for growth of electricity in India. To meet the projected demand, the paper presents a strategy, which incorporates, wherever available, recommendations of various organs of the Government of India. It is observed that in order to limit cumulative energy import during the next 50 years to about 30%, the nuclear contribution towards electricity generation has to increase from the present 3% to about a quarter of the total. For the nuclear power to play this role, the programme of the Department of Atomic Energy to augment nuclear installed capacity to 20 GWe by 2020 based on a mix of Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs), Light Water Reactors (LWRs) and Fast Breeder Reactors (FBRs) should be completed and the R&D necessary to set up U–Pu metal-based FBRs of short doubling time and associated fuel reprocessing technologies should also be completed in the next 15 years.     

Can sunflower provide biofuel for inland demand? An integrated assessment of sustainability at regional scale

Biofuels could reduce reliance on fossil oil, while helping to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promoting rural development. This study assessed the viability of using local biodiesel production from sunflower in Tuscany (Italy) to meet inland demand for diesel fuel in compliance with the European Directives. A crop growth model, GIS and geostatistics were used to identify suitable areas for biodiesel production, considering potential sunflower yields alongside essential sustainability criteria: energy efficiency and greenhouse gas (GHG) savings throughout the supply chain. Simulation results indicate that biodiesel potential, estimated at 95,000 t/year, corresponds to 104,400 tCO₂ eq/year of GHG saved and to 26,500 TOE/year of fossil energy saved. Two scenarios of biodiesel requirement, derived from EU targets, were evaluated. The results of the evaluation indicated that the 2010 target of replacing 5.75% of transportation diesel fuel can be met, while the 2020 target (reaching a 10% of replacement) cannot be met, since local biodiesel production could replace only 4.78% of diesel fuel requirement. A third scenario considered replacing diesel fuel currently used in the agricultural sector. Results showed that the fuel requirement of this sector cannot be fulfilled since biodiesel could cover only approximately 36% of the expected demand.     

Scenario analysis of China’s emissions pathways in the 21st century for low carbon transition

China’s growing demand for energy – and its dependence on coal – has seen its carbon emissions increase more than 50% since 2000. Within the debate about mitigating global climate change, there is mounting pressure for emerging economies like China to take more responsibility for reducing their carbon emissions within a post-2012 international climate change policy framework. For China, this leads to fundamental questions about how feasible it is for the country to shift away from its recent carbon intensive pattern of growth. This paper presents some general results of scenarios that have been developed to investigate how China might continue to develop within a cumulative carbon emissions budget. The results show how changes in the key sectors of the Chinese economy could enable China to follow four different low carbon development pathways, each of which complies with a cumulative emissions constraint. Each scenario reflects different priorities for governmental decision making, infrastructure investments and social preferences. Having compared the key features of each scenario, the paper concludes with some implications for Chinese government policy.     

Validating energy-oriented CGE models

Although CGE models have received heavy usage — particularly in the analysis of broad-based policies relating to energy, climate and trade, they are often criticized as being insufficiently validated. Key parameters are often not econometrically estimated, and the performance of the model as a whole is rarely checked against historical outcomes. As a consequence, questions frequently arise as to how much faith one can put in CGE results. In this paper, we employ a novel approach to the validation of a widely utilized global CGE model — GTAP-E. By comparing the variance of model-generated petroleum price distributions – driven by historical demand and supply shocks to the model – with observed five-year moving average price distributions, we conclude that energy demand in GTAP-E is far too price-elastic over this medium run time frame. After incorporating the latest econometric estimates of energy demand and supply elasticities, we revisit the validation question and find the model to perform more satisfactorily. As a further check, we compare a deterministic global general equilibrium simulation, based on historical realizations over the five year period: 2001–2006, during which petroleum prices rose sharply, along with growing global energy demands. As anticipated by the stochastic simulations, the revised model parameters perform much better than the original GTAP-E parameters in this global, general equilibrium context.     

Electricity supply,employment and real GDP in India: evidence from cointegration and Granger-causality tests

This study probes nexus between electricity supply, employment and real GDP for India within a multivariate framework using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration. Long-run equilibrium relationship has been established among these variables for the time span 1970–71 to 2005–06. The study further establishes long- and short-run Granger causality running from real GDP and electricity supply to employment without any feedback effect. Thus, growth in real GDP and electricity supply are responsible for the high level of employment in India. The absence of causality running from electricity supply to real GDP implies that electricity demand and supply side measures can be adopted to reduce the wastage of electricity, which would not affect future economic growth of India.     

Economic growth, CO2 emissions, and fossil fuels consumption in Iran

Environmental issues have attracted renewed interest and more attention during recent years due to climatic problems associated with the increased levels of pollution and the deterioration of the environmental quality as a result of increased human activity. This paper investigates the causal relationships between economic growth, carbon emission, and fossil fuels consumption, using the relatively new time series technique known as the Toda-Yamamoto method for Iran during the period 1967–2007. Total fossil fuels, petroleum products, and natural gas consumption are used as three proxies for energy consumption. Empirical results suggest a unidirectional Granger causality running from GDP and two proxies of energy consumption (petroleum products and natural gas consumption) to carbon emissions, and no Granger causality running from total fossil fuels consumption to carbon emissions in the long run. The results also show that carbon emissions, petroleum products, and total fossil fuels consumption do not lead to economic growth, though gas consumption does.     

Surface structure and electrochemical characteristics of plasma-fluorinated petroleum cokes for lithium ion battery

Plasma-fluorination of petroleum coke and those heat-treated at 1860, 2300 and 2800 °C (abbreviated to PC, PC1860, PC2300 and PC2800) was conducted for 15, 30 and 60 min using CF₄ gas at 90 °C. Fluorine contents obtained by elemental analysis were negligible except PC fluorinated for 60 min (0.7 at.%). Fluorine concentration on the surface decreased with increasing heat-treatment temperature of petroleum coke, i.e. from PC to PC2800 when plasma-fluorination was made for 30 and 60 min. Transmission electron microscopic observation revealed that the closed edges of PC2800 were destroyed and opened by plasma-treatment. Plasma-fluorination increased surface disorder of heat-treated petroleum cokes, however, slightly reduced surface areas. These surface structure changes increased first coulombic efficiencies of PC2300 and PC2800 by 6–8 and 8–10% at both 60 and 150 mA g⁻¹, respectively.     

Allocation of energy resources for power generation in India: Business as usual and energy efficiency

This paper deals with MARKAL allocations for various energy sources, in India, for Business As Usual (BAU) scenario and for the case of exploitation of energy saving potential in various sectors of economy. In the BAU scenario, the electrical energy requirement will raise up to 5000 bKwh units per year or 752 GW of installed capacity with major consumers being in the industry, domestic and service sectors. This demand can be met by a mix of coal, hydro, nuclear and wind technologies. Other reneawbles i.e. solar and biomass will start contributing from the year 2040 onwards. By full exploitation of energy saving potential, the annual electrical energy demand gets reduced to 3061 bKwh (or 458 GW), a reduction of 38.9%.The green house gas emissions reduce correspondingly. In this scenario, market allocations for coal, gas and large hydro become stagnant after the year 2015.     

The assessment of health damage caused by air pollution and its implication for policy making in Taiyuan,Shanxi, China

We establish the link between energy use, air pollution, and public health impacts in Taiyuan for 2000, and for 2010 and 2015 under alternative scenarios. We find that in year 2000 more than 2200 excess deaths may have been caused by particulate matter (PM) pollution. Using alternative methods for monetization of health impacts the total health damage amounts to 0.8–1.7 billion Yuan, which is 2.4–4.9% of the city's GDP in 2000. Compared to the business-as-usual scenario, scenarios assuming extensive fuel switch in low-and-medium-stack pollution sources and extension of the district heating system could prevent 200–1100 PM₁₀-related premature deaths in 2010 and substantially reduce population morbidity. The actual PM pollution in 2007 was lower than modeled in these two scenarios. We also find that if air quality in urban Taiyuan were to reach the Chinese National Grade II Standard in 2015, the number of premature deaths would still be around 1330 and the economic cost about 1–2% of the city's GDP in 2015. Our results imply that there are large health benefits to be gained by setting stricter standards for the future in China, and that targeting low-and-medium-stack source effectively reduces health damage.     

A CGE analysis to study the impacts of energy investment on economic growth and carbon dioxide emission: A case of Shaanxi Province in western China

A two-region ten-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was built to analyze the effects of investment growth in the energy sectors of western areas of China on the local economy and emission of carbon dioxide (CO₂). There are three different scenarios in the quantitative analysis for the investment increase in energy sectors of the western areas. The investment to energy sectors is increased at the rate of 20%, 40%, and 60%. Based on Shaanxi Province's 2002 input–output table, the change of some macro-economic variables is simulated under these scenarios. The results show that the GDP growth is at 0–8.92%, households disposable income growth is at 0–8.94%, and emission of carbon dioxide growth is at 0–11.10% when the investment growth is at 0–60%. The oil and gas sector is the most effective sector with a growth rate of 0–19.47%.     

Electricty generation from woody biomass fuels compared with other renewable energy options

The future New Zealand biomass resource from exotic plantation forest arisings could supply 970 GWh/year by the year 2002. Associated wood processing residues could supply 280 GWh/year. Purpose grown fuelwood plantations could supply 2060 GWh/year with potential to rise to 10,000 GWh/year by 2012.Currently the annual electricity demand is around 30,000 GWh 70% of which is generated by hydro power. Natural gas, a resource with estimated reserves of only approximately 14 years currently supplies 25% of generating capacity. This paper describes how part replacement of gas by biomass could be a feasible proposition for the future.Life cycle cost analyses showed electricity could be generated from arisings for (US)4.8–6 c/kWh; from residues for (US)2.4–4.8 c/kWh; and from plantations for (US)4.8–7.2 c/kWh. For comparison the current retail electricity price is around (US)4–5.5 c/kWh and estimates for wind power generation range from (US)5–10 c/kWh. Future hydropower schemes will generate power between (US)4–9 c/kWh depending on site suitability.