Future demand of petroleum products in India

This paper examines the long-run equilibrium relationship between total petroleum products consumption and economic growth in India for the period 1970–1971 to 2001–2002 using cointegration and error-correction modeling approach. Augmented Dickey–Fuller tests reveal that both the series, after logarithmic transformation, are non-stationary and individually integrated of order one. The empirical results suggest that the series are cointegrated. The ‘long-term demand elasticity for petroleum products’ has been estimated. Furthermore, as a special case, similar sort of exercise between the consumption of middle-distillates and economic growth in India using annual data for the time span 1974–1975 to 2001–2002 has been carried out, which also confirms the existence of cointegration. In-sample forecasts fitted well against actual numbers. Finally, the paper forecasts total petroleum products and middle-distillates demands till 2011–2012 and provide an idea about the investment required in refinery sector in India till 2011–2012.     

A supply model for crude oil and natural gas in the Middle East

Crude oil (CO) and natural gas (NG) play an important role in the world economy. The Arab countries (ACs) share 64% of the total oil reserves and 40% of the NG reserves [OPEC, 2003. The Annual Statistical Bulletin]. On the production side, ACs contribute to 30% and 9% of the world production of CO and NG, respectively. Accurate forecast models are needed to do better planning and create less risky business environment. In this paper, an econometric model is built to capture the behavior of CO and NG production in the ESCWA¹ countries. The model is used to forecast future production trends of CO and NG, and thus provide a powerful tool for researchers, planners and investors working in the energy field.     

Price controls, price dispersion and the supply of refined petroleum products

This paper analyses the petroleum industry price and allocation controls which dominated US energy policy during the 1970s. It is emphasized that since controls on refined products tied maximum prices to costs of production, the market effects of this regulatory system were quite unusual. The paper shows that controls induced firms to price refined products below marginal costs. In addition, the regulations tended to increase the degree of dispersion in prices charged by firms in the industry. Finally, in the context of multiple product analysis, it is shown that the presence of effective ceiling prices for any of the products reduced the prices of all products below marginal costs.     

Downstream natural gas in Europe—High hopes dashed for upstream oil and gas companies

Access for independents to retail gas markets was a central concern in European policy reform efforts in the 1990s. Upstream oil and gas companies reacted with strategic intentions of forward integration. By late 2004, forward integration was still weak, however. An important explanation of the gap between announced strategic re-orientation and actual strategy implementation lies in the political failure of EU member states to dismantle market barriers to entry for independents. Variations between companies in downstream strategy implementation are explained by variations in business opportunities and internal company factors.     

Demand for natural gas in Kuwait: An empirical analysis using two econometric models

This paper estimates the demand for natural gas in Kuwait for the period 1975–93 using two models. A partial flow-adjustment model and a co-integration and error correction model. It is found that natural gas demand is inelastic with respect to price and income in the short and long run. Furthermore, natural gas consumption adjusts towards its long-run level with about 61% of the adjustment occurring in the first year.     

低压煤气储气罐采用可变喉部截面引射器引射利用研究

为结合上海市重大工程项目建设,进一步改善天然气引射调峰装置性能,围绕低压煤气储气罐在天然气榆配调峰中的应用问题开展低压煤气储气罐配套可变喉部截面引射器系统用于天然气储气调峰的模拟研究,为低压煤气储气罐的改造利用提供技术支撑。     

Effects of US biofuel policies on US and world petroleum product markets with consequences for greenhouse gas emissions

US biofuel policy includes greenhouse gas reduction targets. Regulators do not address the potential that biofuel policy can have indirect impacts on greenhouse gases through its impacts on petroleum product markets, and scientific research only partially addresses this question. We use economic models of US biofuel and agricultural markets and US and world petroleum and petroleum product markets to show that discontinuing biofuel tax credits and ethanol tariff lower biofuel use could lead to increased US petroleum product use, and a reduction in petroleum product use in other parts of the world. The net effect is lower greenhouse gas emissions. Under certain assumptions, we show that biofuel use mandate elimination can have positive or negative impacts on greenhouse gas emissions. The magnitude and the direction of effects depend on how US biofuel trade affects biofuel in other countries with different emissions, context that determines how important use mandates are in the first place, who pays mandate costs, and the price responsiveness of global petroleum supplies and uses. However, our results show that counter-intuitive effects are possible and discourage broad conclusions about the greenhouse gas impacts of removing these elements of US biofuel policy.     

World crude oil and natural gas: a demand and supply model

This paper examines world markets for crude oil and natural gas over the period 1918–1999; it analyzes the time-series properties of output and prices and estimates demand and supply elasticities during 1918–1973 and 1973–1999. Oil and gas prices were stable during the first period; they became volatile afterwards, reflecting deep changes in the market structure following the oil shock in 1973. Demand price elasticities were too low; however, demand income elasticities were high. Supply price elasticities were also too low. The elasticity estimates help to explain the market power of the oil producers and price volatility in response to shocks, and corroborate elasticity estimates in energy studies.     

燃机电厂天然气调压站配置探讨

天然气用于燃气轮机发电在我国越来越多,但燃气轮机对天然气的压力、温度等都有一定的要求。天然气调压站是天然气的主要处理系统,直接影响到燃气轮机的安全稳定运行。根据已投产燃气轮机的运行经验,对天然气调压站的系统设备配置作了分析探讨,对设备提出了经济合理地配置的建议。     

Estimating the agricultural demand for natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas in the presence of measurement error in the data

The paper begins by discussing the importance of accurate estimates of the price elasticity of demand and some of the problems frequently encountered in obtaining these estimates. To these problems is added that associated with inaccuracy in the measurement of the dependent variable and one or more of the independent variables that affect the quantity demanded. Two diagnostics, i.e. the regression coefficient bounds and the bias correction factor, have been introduced to assess the effect that such measurement error has on the estimated coefficients of demand relationships. The use of these diagnostics will aid in assessing the integrity of the estimates obtained. In considering the demand for natural gas and the demand for liquefied petroleum gas by farmers in the USA, both the quantity demanded and the price data available for demand model estimation purposes contain measurement error. The regression coefficient bounds diagnostic was used to indicate a range over which the true price responsiveness of farmers to changes in energy prices lies. The results suggest that each 1% increase (decrease) in the price of energy will result in a decrease (increase) of between 0.41 and 0.17% in the quantity of natural gas demanded and a decrease (increase) of between 0.48 and 0.07% in the quantity of liquefied petroleum gas demanded. The bias correction factor was computed to evaluate the magnitude of the underestimation of the responsiveness of the quantity of natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas demanded to a change in the number of acres irrigated. For natural gas, the under-estimation was 26.5%, whereas, for liquefied petroleum gas, it was 9.5%.     

Numerical investigation on the effects of natural gas and hydrogen blends on engine combustion

The use of hydrogen blended with natural gas is a viable alternative to pure fossil fuels because of the expected reduction of the total pollutant emissions and increase of efficiency. These blends offer a valid opportunity for tackling sustainable transportation, in view of the future stringent emission limits for road vehicles. The aim of the present paper is the investigation of the performance of internal combustion engines fuelled by such blends. A numerical investigation on the characteristics of natural gas–hydrogen blends as well as their effect on engine performance is carried out. The activity is focused on the influence of such blends on flame propagation speed. Combustion pattern modelling allows the comparison of engine brake efficiency and power output using different fuels. Results showed that there is an increase in engine efficiency only if Maximum Brake Torque (MBT) spark advance is used for each fuel. Moreover, an economic analysis has been carried out to determine the over cost of hydrogen in such blends, showing percent increments by using these fuels about between 10 and 34%.     

一种新型天然气储存技术及其应用前景

天然气水合物（NGH）是在低温高压的条件下由水和天然气形成的笼形结晶化合物。天然气水合物储气技术是一种新型的天然气储气技术，具有能量密度高、安全可靠、费用低等优点。文章介绍了天然气水合物的制备、储气性能以及应用前景。     

美国天然气市场法规及政策演化的启示

介绍了美国天然气市场培育及发展过程中7个具有标志性意义的法案的内容、出台的背景及其影响,从中得到关于我国西气东输“照付不议”协议签订时间及价格问题的启示,并提出了关于我国天然气市场发展的几点设想。     

利用文丘里引射装置回收利用高压天然气压力能

介绍引射器的基本工作原理及其特性,并对该项技术中的关键设备超音速引射器进行设计研究。工程应用表明,采用文丘里引射装置是以高压天然气引射低压人工煤气,不仅拓宽了天然气的应用领域,而且通过回收天然气管网压力能,可大幅度节省电耗,降低生产运营成本,提高城市燃气管网运行的可靠性。     

天然气与煤粉混烧技术在工业锅炉上的应用

介绍了在链条炉的基础上,以煤粉、天然气的悬浮燃烧方式配合火床燃烧的节能改造技术,对一台20t/h快装链条炉改造后,锅炉启动时升温速度提高,负荷调节的响应时间缩短,锅炉灰渣含碳量由原来的20％降低到5％以下,机械不完全燃烧损失大为降低.过量空气系数由改造前的2.5 ～3降低至1.2 ～1.3,大幅减少了锅炉排烟量,降低了锅炉排烟热损失.锅炉热效率由改造前的62％提高至改造后的77％ ～ 80％.     

天然气液化工艺的相平衡计算

天然气液化流程广泛采用的是丙烷预冷混合制冷剂液化流程.为了进一步优化流程,减少能源的消耗,需要对整个流程进行模拟,而模拟过程中热力学参数的计算便是整个流程计算的基础.使用两种状态方程（SRK和PR方程）对热力学参数进行相平衡计算,为后续计算焓、熵等参数提供相应的解决办法,并判断选择的状态方程是否符合要求.     

Allocation of energy inputs among the end-uses in the US petroleum and coal products industry

This paper models the allocation of energy inputs in the US petroleum and coal products industry by allocating combustible fuel and renewable energy inputs among generic end-uses, including intermediate conversions through onsite power and steam generation. This analysis, called an energy end-use model, showed that 72% of the fuel input in the US petroleum and coal products industry goes to onsite steam and power generation, whereas 28% goes directly to end-uses. Eight percent of the boiler output is used for power generation, 72% goes directly to end-uses, and 20% is waste heat. Among the end-uses, process heating is the biggest energy user with a total energy consumption of 2338 PJ, whereas machine drive is the biggest electricity consumer with a consumption of 168 PJ. This paper also provides estimates of the uncertainty of the data. The approach to create this model is applicable to all other industries for which data is available and the model is consistent with US Department of Energy data for 1998. When used in conjunction with similar models for other years, it can be used to identify the changes and trends in energy utilization even at the prime mover level of detail.     

Latest progress in numerical simulations on multiphase flow and thermodynamics in production of natural gas from gas hydrate reservoir

Natural gas hydrates are promising potential alternative energy resources. Some studies on the multiphase flow and thermodynamics have been conducted to investigate the feasibility of gas production from hydrate dissociation. The methods for natural gas production are analyzed and several models describing the dissociation process are listed and compared. Two prevailing models, one for depressurization and the other for thermal stimulation, are discussed in detail. A comprehensive numerical method considering the multiphase flow and thermodynamics of gas production from various hydratebearing reservoirs is required to better understand the dissociation process of natural gas hydrate, which would be of great benefit to its future exploration and exploitation.     

小型混合制冷剂天然气液化流程设计与分析

分析了IFP-Axens公司开发的混合制冷剂循环Liquefin工艺关键技术,在此基础上设计了一种全新的小型混合制冷剂液化流程。比较了三个流程的主要流程参数,综合分析了换热器冷热负荷曲线和温差曲线。结果表明,压缩机和换热器的损失是循环的主要损失,可以通过选用效率更高的压缩机,或者改变压缩系统结构减少损;提高返流轻组分节流后压力可有效降低换热温差,通过进一步优化制冷剂组成和运行压力,可使换热温差更加均匀,减少换热器损,提高流程的经济性。     

The influences of hydrogen on the performance and emission characteristics of a heavy duty natural gas engine

Because blending hydrogen with natural gas can allow the mixture to burn leaner, reducing the emission of nitrogen oxide (NO_x), hydrogen blended with natural gas (HCNG) is a viable alternative to pure fossil fuels because of the effective reduction in total pollutant emissions and the increased engine efficiency.In this research, the performance and emission characteristics of an 11-L heavy duty lean burn engine using HCNG were examined, and an optimization strategy for the control of excess air ratio and of spark advance timing was assessed, in consideration of combustion stability. The thermal efficiency increased with the hydrogen addition, allowing stable combustion under leaner operating conditions. The efficiency of NO_x reduction is closely related to the excess air ratio of the mixture and to the spark advance timing. With the optimization of excess air ratio and spark advance timing, HCNG can effectively reduce NO_x as much as 80%.