Dynamic temperature dependence patterns in future energy demand models in the context of climate change

Energy demand depends on outdoor temperature in a ‘u’ shaped fashion. Various studies have used this temperature dependence to investigate the effects of climate change on energy demand. Such studies contain implicit or explicit assumptions to describe expected socio-economic changes that may affect future energy demand.This paper critically analyzes these implicit or explicit assumptions and their possible effect on the studies' outcomes. First we analyze the interaction between the socio-economic structure and the temperature dependence pattern (TDP) of energy demand. We find that socio-economic changes may alter the TDP in various ways. Next we investigate how current studies manage these dynamics in socio-economic structure. We find that many studies systematically misrepresent the possible effect of socio-economic changes on the TDP of energy demand. Finally, we assess the consequences of these misrepresentations in an energy demand model based on temperature dependence and climate scenarios. Our model results indicate that expected socio-economic dynamics generally lead to an underestimation of future energy demand in models that misrepresent such dynamics. We conclude that future energy demand models should improve the incorporation of socio-economic dynamics. We propose dynamically modeling several key parameters and using direct meteorological data instead of degree days.     

Heating and cooling energy demand and related emissions of the German residential building stock under climate change

The housing sector is a major consumer of energy. Studies on the future energy demand under climate change which also take into account future changes of the building stock, renovation measures and heating systems are still lacking. We provide the first analysis of the combined effect of these four influencing factors on the future energy demand for room conditioning of residential buildings and resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Germany until 2060. We show that the heating energy demand will decrease substantially in the future. This shift will mainly depend on the number of renovated buildings and climate change scenarios and only slightly on demographic changes. The future cooling energy demand will remain low in the future unless the amount of air conditioners strongly increases. As a strong change in the German energy mix is not expected, the future GHG emissions caused by heating will mainly depend on the energy demand for future heating.     

Investigating the potential of overheating in UK dwellings as a consequence of extant climate change

Dynamic simulation is used with defined domestic building variants to investigate internal temperatures of UK dwellings. Factors such as a warming climate and varying internal heat gains are estimated to examine whether UK domestic buildings are likely to be prone to overheating in the future, and therefore require mechanical air conditioning. The study suggests that the ability, or inability, of the occupant to adapt to bedroom temperature is paramount in the understanding of the conditions for overheating. While this is difficult to quantify (and a range of comfort temperatures are proposed), the effect of changing the building construction and geographical location can result in significantly different thermal conditions. As might be expected, the problem appears most noticeable for buildings in the south of the UK and with lightweight constructions. Even with a window-opening schedule applied to such a scenario, the average internal temperature is simulated as being over 28 °C for almost 12% of the year. A different metric, defined as “cooling nights”, suggests that there might be a cooling problem in bedroom areas for approximately a third of the year. In the North of the UK, and also for solid wall dwellings, this problem diminishes significantly.     

Modelling and optimization of district heating and industrial energy system—an approach to a locally deregulated heat market

Regions with densely concentration of industries and district heating systems (DHS) could be interesting study object from the light of an integrated heat market on local basis. System analysis with a widened system boundary could be used as an approach to evaluate the benefit of an integrated heat supply system. In this study, an energy system model consisting of totally seven different participants is designed and the optimization results of the system analysis are presented. With applied data and assumptions, the study shows that a significant amount of the heat demand within two sub‐systems can be covered by heat supply from the heat market (the entire heat comes from two industries). Shadow prices, which can be used for heat pricing, indicate the advantage of an integrated system. The system cost reduction through integration and the availability of several actors with diverse energy supply system, makes the region under study an interesting area to prove a locally deregulated heat market. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Building envelope design for climate change mitigation: a case study of hotels in Greece

This paper presents results of a study of the impact of future climate change scenarios as developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and implemented in weather files for specific future time slices (2020, 2050 and 2080) for the three climatic regions of Greece on the design of the external envelope of a hotel building in Greece. The impact of climate change on the hotel is assessed via hourly simulations of a calibrated model developed using the software TRNSYS. Additionally, the paper aims to identify optimal refurbishment strategies, given the constraints of the existing case-study building when transposed to the three different climatic zones in Greece. Two modes of the hotel building were studied: ‘all year’ and ‘seasonally’ operated. It was found that different external envelope energy-efficient strategies can be applied depending on the climatic zone and whether the hotel is all-year or seasonally operated.     

Further analysis of change in nearshore wave climate due to an offshore wave farm: An enhanced case study for the Wave Hub site

This paper addresses the use of numerical wave models for assessing the impact of offshore wave farms on the nearshore wave climate. Previous studies have investigated the effect of energy extraction by wave energy devices through the use of spectral models such as SWAN, representing a wave farm as one or more barriers within the model domain and applying a constant wave energy transmission percentage across the whole wave spectrum incident at the barrier. However, this is an unrealistic representation of the behaviour of real wave energy converters. These will exhibit frequency-dependent energy absorption characteristics that will correspond to the spectral response of the device, and may reflect its ability to be tuned to extract energy at particular frequencies. This study describes a modification of the SWAN source code to enable frequency-dependent wave energy transmission through a barrier. A detailed analysis of the wave climate at the Wave Hub wave farm site is also presented, with a particular focus on the occurrence of bimodal sea states. The modified SWAN code is used to assess how impact predictions for typically occurring sea states may differ when using frequency-dependent rather than constant wave energy transmission, with reference to a previous study using the unmodified code (Millar, Smith and Reeve, 2007 [1]). The results illustrate the dependence of the magnitude of the impact on both the response function of the devices and the spectral sea state in which they are operating.     

Technical assessment of the use of a small-scale wind power system to meet the demand for electricity in a land aquafarm in Taiwan

Due to the widespread aquaculture at coastal area in Taiwan and high wind power potential in the sites, it is worthy to carry out the technical potential assessments of small-scale wind power system used for aquaculture in Taiwan. The present work analyzed wind power potential, described the practical installation, measured the actual energy output, verified the reliability of the energy output estimation method and elucidated important considerations associated with the use of this estimation method. The relationship between the actual energy generated and the wind speed characteristics were thus introduced. The power quality produced by a small-scale wind power generator was also evaluated.     

Should policy-makers allocate funding to vehicle electrification or end-use energy efficiency as a strategy for climate change mitigation and energy reductions? Rethinking electric utilities efficiency programs

In order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the United States by an order of magnitude, a portfolio of mitigation strategies is needed. Currently, many utilities pursue energy efficiency programs. We study a case where utilities could choose whether to allocate their energy efficiency budget to either end-use efficiency or vehicle electrification as a means to reduce CO₂ emissions. We build a decision space that displays the conditions under which utilities should pursue either strategy. To build such decision space, assumptions are needed on how consumers respond to electric vehicle incentives, and what would be the baseline vehicle selected by consumers if no incentives were in place. Since these two aspects are highly uncertain, we treat them parametrically: if consumers are replacing a conventional vehicle with a PHEV, utility incentive programs to induce PHEV adoption appear to be cost-effective for a wide range of efficiency program costs and grid emissions factors.