Investment in electricity markets with asymmetric technologies

Capacity investments in electricity markets is one of the main issues in the restructuring process to ensure competition and enhance system security of networks. We study competition between hydro and thermal electricity generators under demand uncertainty. Producers compete in quantities and each is constrained: the thermal generator by capacity and the hydro generator by water availability. We analyze a two-period game emphasizing the incentives for capacity investments by the thermal generator. We characterize both Markov perfect and open-loop equilibria. In the Markov perfect equilibrium, investment is discontinuous in initial capacity and higher than it is in the open-loop equilibrium. However, since there are two distortions in the model, equilibrium investment can be either higher or lower than the efficient investment.     

Enhancing power supply adequacy in Spain: Migrating from capacity payments to reliability options

There has been total unanimity about the vital importance of reliability of supply since the beginning of the electricity sector deregulation process. This paper describes the procedure proposed by Pérez-Arriaga et al. [2005. White paper for the reform of the regulatory scheme of the power generation in Spain. For the Ministry of Industry, Tourism and Trade of Spain (in Spanish)] to improve upon the current scheme to guarantee a reasonable reserve margin, the capacity payment mechanism. This alternative design introduces improvements aimed at guaranteeing at least a minimum capacity reserve margin, as well as at providing a strong incentive for generating units to be available when needed, namely, in situations when supply is likely to be insufficient to meet the total demand.     

Large-scale wind power in European electricity markets: Time for revisiting support schemes and market designs?

This paper questions whether current renewable support schemes and electricity market designs are well-suited to host a significant amount of wind energy. Our analysis aims at finding the right equilibrium between market signals received by wind generators and their intrinsic risks. More market signals are needed to give the right incentives for reducing wind integration costs but should not undermine the effectiveness of support schemes. Although several alternatives combining support schemes and market signals could improve the current situation in terms of market signals and risks, feed-in premium support scheme seems actually to be the more balanced option. Furthermore, an adequate sharing of wind generation technical responsibility between the system operator and wind power producers can help to control wind integration costs even in the absence of accurate market signals.     

Can Markov regime-switching models improve power-price forecasts? Evidence from German daily power prices

Non-linear autoregressive Markov regime-switching models are intuitive. Time-series approaches for the modelling of electricity spot prices are frequently proposed. In this paper, such models are compared with an ordinary linear autoregressive model with regard to their forecast performances. The study is carried out using German daily spot-prices from the European Energy Exchange in Leipzig. Four non-linear models are used for the forecast study. The results of the study suggest that Markov regime-switching models provide better forecasts than linear models.     

Applying portfolio theory to the electricity sector: Energy versus power

Portfolio theory has found its way in numerous applications for optimizing the electricity generation mix of a particular region. Existing models, however, consider typically a single time period and correspondingly do not properly account for actual dispatch constraints and energy sources with a non-dispatchable, variable output. This paper presents a portfolio theory model that explicitly distinguishes between installed capacity (power), electricity generation (energy) and actual instantaneous power delivery. This way, the variability of wind power and ramp limits of conventional power plants are correctly included in the investment optimization. The model is written as a quadratically constrained programming problem and illustrated in a case study. The results show that the introduction of wind power can be motivated to lower the risk on generation cost, albeit to smaller levels than typically reported in the literature. This wind power deployment further requires the need for sufficiently rampable technologies, to deal with its fluctuating output.     

Gone with the wind? — Electricity market prices and incentives to invest in thermal power plants under increasing wind energy supply

The increased wind energy supplied to many electricity markets around the world has to be balanced by reliably ramping units or other complementary measures when wind conditions are low. At the same time wind energy impacts both, the utilization of thermal power plants and the market prices. While the market prices tend to decrease, the impact on the utilization of different plant types is at the outset unclear. To analyze the incentives to invest in thermal power plants under increased wind energy supply, we develop a computational model which includes ramping restrictions and costs and apply it to the German case. We find that due to current wind supply the market prices are reduced by more than five percent, and the incentives to invest in natural gas fired units are largely reduced. An increased wind supply erodes their attractiveness further. Consequently, a gap between the need for and the incentive to provide flexibility can be expected.     

Reactive issues - reactive power in restructured markets

This work focuses on the planning for and operation of reactive power resources in restructured electricity markets. It also presents the philosophy and the reasons behind this philosophy for better operation of reactive power resources.     

Assessing the impact of US ethanol on fossil fuel markets: A structural VAR approach

Despite the growing importance of biofuels, the effect of biofuels on fossil fuel markets is not fully understood. We develop a joint structural Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model of the global crude oil, US gasoline, and US ethanol markets to examine whether the US ethanol market has had any impact on global oil markets. The structural VAR approach provides a unique method for decomposing price and quantity data into demand and supply shocks, allowing us to estimate the distinct dynamic effects of ethanol demand and supply shocks on the real prices of crude oil and US gasoline. Ethanol demand in the US is driven mainly by government support in the form of tax credits and blending mandates. Shocks to ethanol demand therefore reflect changes in policy more than any other factor. In contrast, ethanol supply shocks are driven by changes in feedstock prices. A principle finding is that a policy-driven ethanol demand expansion causes a statistically significant decline in real crude oil prices, while an ethanol supply expansion does not have a statistically significant impact on real oil prices. This suggests that even though US ethanol market is small, the influence of US biofuels policy on the crude oil market is pervasive. We also show that ethanol demand shocks are more important than ethanol supply shocks in explaining the fluctuation of real prices of crude oil and US gasoline.     

Measuring efficiency and productivity change (PTF) in the Peruvian electricity distribution companies after reforms

This paper analyzes the evolution of productivity of the electricity distribution companies in Peru, to assess whether reforms have improved the efficiency in this sector. The paper also identifies potential sources of productivity changes, based on market restructuring the electricity sector and changes in property. To do this, we rely on a set of data for 14 distribution companies, for the period 1996–2006. Our analysis suggests that improvements in the efficiency and productivity of electricity distribution in Peru have occurred, and that there is a relationship between the restructuring of distribution sector and the enhancement of productivity.     

Good,BETTA, best? The role of industry structure in electricity reform in Scotland

This paper examines the effects of industry structure on the effectiveness of the restructuring process of the electricity industry in Scotland, with particular reference to the unbundling of electricity transmission. The analysis is carried out with respect to a set of goals designed to reflect Ofgem's statutory duties, namely: to promote competition (as a proxy of consumer interests), to signal the need for investments in generation, load and transmission expansion and to ensure efficient use of the network by licensees.     

Long-term contract auctions and market power in regulated power industries

A number of countries with oligopolistic power industries have used marginal cost pricing to set the price of energy for small customers. This course of action, however, does not necessarily ensure an efficient outcome when competition is imperfect. The purpose of this paper is to study how the auction of long-term contracts could reduce market power. We do so in a two-firm, two-technology, linear-cost, static model where demand is summarized by a price inelastic load curve. In this context we show that the larger the proportion of total demand auctioned in advance, the lower are both the contract and the average spot price of energy.     

A model of market power in electricity industries subject to peak load pricing

This paper studies the exercise of market power in price-regulated electricity industries under peak-load pricing and merit order dispatching, but where investment decisions are taken by independent generating companies. Within this context, we show that producers can exercise market power by under-investing in base-load capacity, compared to the welfare-maximizing configuration. We also show that when there is free entry with an exogenous fixed entry cost that is later sunk, more intense competition results in higher welfare but fewer firms.     

Decarbonization of the U.S. electricity sector: Are state energy policy portfolios the solution?

State governments have taken the lead on U.S. energy and climate policy. It is not yet clear, however, whether state energy policy portfolios can generate results in a similar magnitude or manner to their presumed carbon mitigation potential. This article seeks to address this lack of policy evidence and contribute empirical insights on the carbon mitigation effects of state energy portfolios within the U.S. electricity sector. Using a dynamic, long-term electricity dispatch model with U.S. power plant, utility, and transmission and distribution data between 2010 and 2030, this analysis builds a series of state-level policy portfolio scenarios and performs a comparative scenario analysis. Results reveal that state policy portfolios have modest to minimal carbon mitigation effects in the long run if surrounding states do not adopt similar portfolios as well. The difference in decarbonization potential between isolated state policies and larger, more coordinated policy efforts is due in large part to carbon leakage, which is the export of carbon intensive fossil fuel-based electricity across state lines. Results also confirm that a carbon price of $50/metric ton CO₂e can generate substantial carbon savings. Although both policy options – an energy policy portfolio or a carbon price – are effective at reducing carbon emissions in the present analysis, neither is as effective alone as when the two strategies are combined.     

Speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: A Bayesian analysis

This paper assesses factors that potentially influence the volatility of crude oil prices and the possible linkage between this volatility and agricultural commodity markets. Stochastic volatility models are applied to weekly crude oil, corn, and wheat futures prices from November 1998 to January 2009. Model parameters are estimated using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Speculation, scalping, and petroleum inventories are found to be important in explaining the volatility of crude oil prices. Several properties of crude oil price dynamics are established, including mean-reversion, an asymmetry between returns and volatility, volatility clustering, and infrequent compound jumps. We find evidence of volatility spillover among crude oil, corn, and wheat markets after the fall of 2006. This can be largely explained by tightened interdependence between crude oil and these commodity markets induced by ethanol production.     

North African oil and foreign investment in changing market conditions

Since the 1960s, the experiences of the North African oil producers of Libya, Algeria, Egypt and Sudan within the oil industry have followed separate paths, which have led them into different relations with foreign oil companies. While reflecting broader trends of “resource nationalism”, these relations have also been affected by a number of factors specific to these countries. In tracing the evolution of the oil investment frameworks of these countries, as well as their concomitant relations with IOCs, this paper probes the roles played by these factors and argues that the type and size of remaining reserves as well as the capability of NOCs are likely to determine the most future developments in the region's oil industry.     

Does weather explain cost and quality performance? An analysis of UK electricity distribution companies

In recent years, a number of empirical studies and energy regulators have applied benchmarking techniques to measuring the efficiency and performance of network utilities. An important issue has been the extent to which the results are influenced by contextual factors. Among these, weather factors are frequently discussed as being important. We use factor analysis and two-stage data envelopment analysis techniques to examine the effect of a set of important weather factors (gale, hail, temperatures, rainfall and thunder) on the performance of electricity distribution networks in the UK. The results indicate that such factors often do not have a significant economic and statistical effect on the overall performance of the utilities. The weather parameters in some models are significant in terms of economic efficiency. The results echo our previous findings of the importance of extending the basic model to include other inputs such as total expenditure (Totex), customer minutes lost (CML) and network energy losses in regulatory benchmarking.     

Divorce comes at a price: An ex ante welfare analysis of ownership unbundling of the distribution and commercial companies in the Dutch energy sector

Vertical unbundling in the electricity sector is a hot political topic in the European Union. The European Commission has decided that the ownership unbundling of transmission networks from other stages in the value chain is the most effective way to ensure fair network access and infrastructure investment. While this European unbundling debate has not ended yet and most countries still do not have an independent transmission system operator (TSO), the Dutch government has already taken one step further. In 2008, it decided that distribution companies should be completely separated from commercial activities that are part of the same holding (generation, trade and supply). This governmental decision has been fiercely debated. Although the goal is to improve competition as well as security of supply, these benefits are uncertain. Nevertheless, it is certain that ownership unbundling comes at a cost. In this paper we present an ex ante cost-benefit analysis of the Dutch unbundling act. We conclude that it is unlikely that this act is welfare enhancing: divorce comes at a price.     

Return on capital of Brazilian electricity distributors: A comparative analysis

This paper analyzes the electricity distribution segment in Brazil from 1998 to 2005—after the conclusion of privatization process—trying to assess whether the return on capital invested was in line with the risk required in the segment. It concludes that the return on equity in Brazil was systematically negative until 2003. Only in 2005 did the distribution segment really begin to recover, showing profitability consistent with the estimated cost of equity. Comparisons with Argentine, Chilean and American companies reveal that firms in the latter two countries, generally managed to reward shareholders according to the opportunity cost of capital. Estimates are that to sustain annual growth of roughly 3.7% for the next decade, the entire electricity sector will demand US$ 7 billion in capital expenditures a year for the next decade, 67% for generation, 16% for transmission and 17% for distribution. In order to stimulate private capital investment, it is fundamental for the regulator, in the tariff revision processes, to consistently assure a rate of return on capital in line with the segment's real opportunity cost and therefore maintain the health of all the three segments without the burden of subsidies.     

Germany’s wind energy: The potential for fossil capacity replacement and cost saving

Wind energy has become the major renewable energy source in Germany with an installed capacity of more than 20 GW and an annual output of about 40 TW h in 2007. In this paper we analyze the extent to which wind energy can replace fossil capacities based on wind injection and demand data for 2006 through June 2008. The results indicate that the wind potential in Germany will not allow a significant reduction of fossil capacities. We also assess the potential savings due to wind energy. The German market is modeled with and without wind input to estimate the net savings of fossil fuels in the observation period. We find that the cost-saving potential for electricity production is quite significant and exceeds the subsidies.