Plug-in hybrid fuel cell vehicles market penetration scenarios

The main objective of this research is to analyze the impact of the market share increase of hydrogen based road vehicles in terms of energy consumption and CO₂, on today's Portuguese light-duty fleet. Actual yearly values of energy consumption and emissions were estimated using COPERT software: 167112 TJ of fossil fuel energy, 12213 kton of CO₂ emission and 141 kton of CO, 20 kton of HC, 46 kton of NO_x and 3 kton of PM. These values represent 20–40% of countries total emissions. Additionally to base fleet, three scenarios of introduction of 10–30% fuel cell vehicles including plug-in hybrids configurations were analysed. Considering the scenarios of increasing hydrogen based vehicles penetration, up to 10% life cycle energy consumption reduction can be obtained if hydrogen from centralized natural gas reforming is considered. Full life cycle CO₂ emissions can also be reduced up to 20% in these scenarios, while local pollutants reach up to 85% reductions. For the purpose of estimating road vehicle technologies energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in a full life cycle perspective, fuel cell, conventional full hybrids and hybrid plug-in technologies were considered with diesel, gasoline, hydrogen and biofuel blends. Energy consumption values were estimated in a real road driving cycle and with ADVISOR software. Materials cradle-to-grave life cycle was estimated using GREET database adapted to Europe electric mix. The main conclusions on CO₂ full life cycle analysis is that light-duty vehicles using fuel cell propulsion technology are highly dependent on hydrogen production pathway. The worst scenario for the current Portuguese and European electric mix is hydrogen produced from on-site electrolysis (in the refuelling stations). In this case full life cycle CO₂ is 270 g/km against 190 g/km for conventional Diesel vehicle, for a typical 150,000 km useful life.     

Electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles influence on CO2 and water vapour emissions

The main objective of this research is to quantify the impact of introducing electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles, including fuel cell on conventional fleets. The impact is estimated in terms of local pollutants, HC, CO, NO_x, PM, and in terms of CO₂ and water vapour global emissions. The specific fleet of Portugal, roughly 6 million light-duty vehicles (30% diesel, 70% gasoline) is considered, and the mobility indicator of the fleet, 90 thousand million p × km, is kept constant throughout the analysis. Probability density functions for energy consumption and emissions are derived for conventional, electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, in charge depleting and charge sustaining modes. The Monte Carlo method is used to obtain average distribution estimates for discounting values of “old vehicles” that are removed from the fleet, and to add average distribution estimates for the “new vehicles” entering the fleet. Considering the actual Portuguese fleet as the reference case, local pollutant emissions decrease by a factor of 10-53%, for 50% fleet replacement. A potential 23% decrease of CO₂ is foreseen, and a potential 31% increase of H₂O emissions is forecasted. Life cycle water vapour emissions tend to rise and are, typically, 2-4 times higher than CO₂ values at the upstream stage, due to its release in the cooling towers of thermal power plants. It is interesting to note that considering 1 MJ of energy required at vehicle wheels, in an overall life cycle context, both fuel cell and electric modes have nearly twice as much H₂O emissions than internal combustion vehicles. CO₂ emissions tend to decrease with electric drive vehicles penetration due to the higher fleet life cycle efficiency.     

Baseline model of a centralized pv electrolytic hydrogen system

This study performs an economic and environmental analysis of a centralized pv electrolytic hydrogen system scaled to supply H₂ to one million light duty vehicles and light commercial trucks. Annual H₂ production is 217-million kg. The size of the pv electrolysis plant to produce this quantity of H₂ is a 5.12-GW_dc-in electrolysis plant and a 6.0-GW_p pv power plant. The land area of the pv electrolysis plant is 260 km². The total capital costs of the pv electrolysis H₂ system is $12.4 billion. The levelized H₂ pump price estimate is $6.48/kg. The life cycle primary energy use is 36 MJ/kg of H₂ consumption, and life cycle CO₂ equivalent emissions are 2.6 kg/kg of H₂ consumption. The replacement of conventional gasoline powered vehicles with H₂ powered vehicles reduces primary energy use and CO₂ emissions by 90%.     

Analysis of the vehicle mix in the passenger-car sector in Japan for CO2 emissions reduction by a MARKAL model

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from the passenger-car sector in Japan are increasing rapidly and should be reduced cost-effectively in order to stabilize energy-related CO₂ emissions in Japan. The purpose of the present paper is to clarify the most cost-effective mix of vehicles for reducing CO₂ emissions and to estimate the subsidy that is necessary to achieve this vehicle mix. For this analysis, the energy system of Japan from 1988 to 2032 is modeled using a MARKAL model. The most cost-effective mix of vehicles is estimated by minimizing the total energy system cost under the constraint of an 8% energy-related CO₂ emissions reduction nationally by 2030 from the CO₂ emissions of 1990. Based on the results of the analysis, hybrid vehicles are the only type of clean-energy vehicle, and their share of the passenger car sector in 2030 will be 62%. By assuming the subsidization of hybrid vehicles, the same vehicle mix can be achieved without constraining CO₂ emissions. The peak of the total subsidy estimated to be necessary is 1.225 billion US$/year in 2020, but the annual revenue of the assumed 31 US$/t-C carbon tax from the passenger car sector is sufficient to finance the estimated subsidy. This suggests that we should support the dissemination of hybrid vehicles through subsidization based on carbon tax.     

An integral evaluation of dieselisation policies for households’ cars

Reducing energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in the transport sector is a priority for Great Britain and other European countries as part of their agreements made in the Kyoto protocol and the Voluntary Agreement. To achieve these goals, it has been proposed to increase the market share of diesel vehicles which are more efficient than petrol ones. Based on partial approaches, previous research concluded that increasing the share of diesel vehicles will decrease CO₂ emissions (see 1 and 18; Zervas, 2006). Unlike these approaches, I use an integral approach based on discrete choice models to analyse diesel vehicle penetration in a broader context of transport in Great Britain. I provide for the first time, empirical evidence which is in line with Bonilla's (2009) argument that only improvements in vehicle efficiency will not be enough to achieve their goals of mitigation of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. The model shows the technical limitations that the penetration of diesel vehicles faces and that a combination of improvements in public transportation and taxes on fuel prices is the most effective policy combination to reduce the total amount of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions among the analysed dieselisation polices.     

Food transport refrigeration – Approaches to reduce energy consumption and environmental impacts of road transport

Food transport refrigeration is a critical link in the food chain not only in terms of maintaining the temperature integrity of the transported products but also its impact on energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. This paper provides a review of (a) current approaches in road food transport refrigeration, (b) estimates of their environmental impacts, and (c) research on the development and application of alternative technologies to vapour compression refrigeration systems that have the potential to reduce the overall energy consumption and environmental impacts. The review and analysis indicate that greenhouse gas emissions from conventional diesel engine driven vapour compression refrigeration systems commonly employed in food transport refrigeration can be as high as 40% of the greenhouse gas emissions from the vehicle’s engine. For articulated vehicles over 33 ton, which are responsible for over 80% of refrigerated food transportation in the UK, the reject heat available form the engine is sufficient to drive sorption refrigeration systems and satisfy most of the refrigeration requirements of the vehicle. Other promising technologies that can lead to a reduction in CO₂ emissions are air cycle refrigeration and hybrid systems in which conventional refrigeration technologies are integrated with thermal energy storage. For these systems, however, to effectively compete with diesel driven vapour compression systems, further research and development work is needed to improve their efficiency and reduce their weight.     

Role of energy efficiency standards in reducing CO2 emissions in Germany: An assessment with TIMES

Energy efficiency is widely viewed as an important element of energy and environmental policy. Applying the TIMES model, this paper examines the impacts of additional efficiency improvement measures (as prescribed by the ACROPOLIS project) over the baseline, at the level of individual sectors level as well as in a combined implementation, on the German energy system in terms of energy savings, technological development, emissions and costs. Implementing efficiency measures in all sectors together, CO₂ reduction is possible through substitution of conventional gas or oil boilers by condensing gas boilers especially in single family houses, shifting from petrol to diesel vehicles in private transport, increased use of electric vehicles, gas combined cycle power plants and CHP (combined heat and power production) etc. At a sectoral level, the residential sector offers double benefits of CO₂ reduction and cost savings. In the transport sector, on the other hand, CO₂ reduction is the most expensive, using bio-fuels and methanol to achieve the efficiency targets.     

Fuel cycle CO2-e targets of renewable hydrogen as a realistic transportation fuel in Australia

The claim of catastrophic man made climate change or global warming through anthropogenic CO₂ has presently focused the interest on the tailpipe emissions of CO₂ per km, with recent legislations obsessively targeting these emissions of CO₂ with defectively implemented procedures. With a variety of different propulsion solutions (electric, hybrid electric, hybrid mechanic, conventional) and different fuels (Diesel, Petrol, alternative fossil, alternative renewable) available in the near future, a more comprehensive approach based on the full fuel cycle, and eventually also the full life cycle of the vehicle appear to be necessary. The paper is a contribution to trigger further improvement to currently implemented procedures. The paper discusses the CO₂ emission data in the present form, some simple but effective measures to improve the accuracy of the data collection procedure, and propose results of fuel cycle CO₂-e analysis of vehicles with electric and thermal engines having different fuels. Vehicles with advanced internal combustion engines and power trains fuelled with Diesel may reach CO₂-e values of 100 g/km in Australia. Use of bio-ethanol in these vehicles may deliver in Australia a significant reduction of CO₂-e emissions to values below 36 g/km. Emission factors for Victoria are presently 1.23 kg CO₂-e/kWh for the purchased electricity and vehicles powered by electric motors will need a significant reduction of this indirect CO2-e emission to become competitive. Values below 0.5 kg CO₂-e/kWh are needed to make electric cars competitive with Diesel cars while values below 0.1 kg CO₂-e/kWh are needed to make electric cars competitive with bio-ethanol cars. Compared with all these alternatives, renewable hydrogen may possibly compete with Diesel when produced with renewable energy sources and made available at the pump for less than 0.1 kg CO₂-e/MJ of fuel energy, and with bio-ethanol if produced and distributed at a cost below 0.02 kg CO₂-e/MJ of fuel energy.     

Long-term implications of alternative light-duty vehicle technologies for global greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands

This study assesses global light-duty vehicle (LDV) transport in the upcoming century, and the implications of vehicle technology advancement and fuel-switching on greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands. Five different vehicle technology scenarios are analyzed with and without a CO₂ emissions mitigation policy using the GCAM integrated assessment model: a reference internal combustion engine vehicle scenario, an advanced internal combustion engine vehicle scenario, and three alternative fuel vehicle scenarios in which all LDVs are switched to natural gas, electricity, or hydrogen by 2050. The emissions mitigation policy is a global CO₂ emissions price pathway that achieves 450 ppmv CO₂ at the end of the century with reference vehicle technologies. The scenarios demonstrate considerable emissions mitigation potential from LDV technology; with and without emissions pricing, global CO₂ concentrations in 2095 are reduced about 10 ppmv by advanced ICEV technologies and natural gas vehicles, and 25 ppmv by electric or hydrogen vehicles. All technological advances in vehicles are important for reducing the oil demands of LDV transport and their corresponding CO₂ emissions. Among advanced and alternative vehicle technologies, electricity- and hydrogen-powered vehicles are especially valuable for reducing whole-system emissions and total primary energy.     

Life cycle analysis of vehicles powered by a fuel cell and by internal combustion engine for Canada

The transportation sector is responsible for a great percentage of the greenhouse gas emissions as well as the energy consumption in the world. Canada is the second major emitter of carbon dioxide in the world. The need for alternative fuels, other than petroleum, and the need to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gases emissions are the main reasons behind this study. In this study, a full life cycle analysis of an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) and a fuel cell vehicle (FCV) has been carried out. The impact of the material and fuel used in the vehicle on energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions is analyzed for Canada. The data collected from the literature shows that the energy consumption for the production of 1 kg of aluminum is five times higher than that of 1 kg of steel, although higher aluminum content makes vehicles lightweight and more energy efficient during the vehicle use stage. Greenhouse gas regulated emissions and energy use in transportation (GREET) software has been used to analyze the fuel life cycle. The life cycle of the fuel consists of obtaining the raw material, extracting the fuel from the raw material, transporting, and storing the fuel as well as using the fuel in the vehicle. Four different methods of obtaining hydrogen were analyzed; using coal and nuclear power to produce electricity and extraction of hydrogen through electrolysis and via steam reforming of natural gas in a natural gas plant and in a hydrogen refueling station. It is found that the use of coal to obtain hydrogen generates the highest emissions and consumes the highest energy. Comparing the overall life cycle of an ICEV and a FCV, the total emissions of an FCV are 49% lower than an ICEV and the energy consumption of FCV is 87% lower than that of ICEV. Further, CO₂ emissions during the hydrogen fuel production in a central plant can be easily captured and sequestrated. The comparison carried out in this study between FCV and ICEV is extended to the use of recycled material. It is found that using 100% recycled material can reduce energy consumption by 45% and carbon dioxide emissions by 42%, mainly due to the reduced use of electricity during the manufacturing of the material.     

A preliminary life cycle assessment of PEM fuel cell powered automobiles

This paper provides a preliminary life cycle assessment (LCA) of polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cell powered automobile. Life cycle of PEM fuel cell automobile not only includes operation of the vehicle on the road but also include production and distribution of both the vehicle and the fuel (e.g. hydrogen) during the vehicle’s entire lifetime. Assessment is based on the published data available in the literature. The two characteristics of the life cycle, which were assessed, are energy consumption and greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions. Greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions considered in the present assessment are CO₂ and CH₄. In addition, conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) automobile is also assessed based on similar characteristics for comparison with PEM fuel cell automobile. It is found that the energy utilized to generate the hydrogen during fuel cycle for the PEM automobile is about 3.5 times higher than the energy utilized to generate the gasoline during its fuel cycle. However, the overall life cycle energy consumption of PEM fuel cell automobile is about 2.3 times less than that of ICE automobile. Similarly, the GHGs emissions of PEMFC automobile are about 8.5 times higher than ICE automobile during the fuel cycle, but the overall life cycle GHGs emissions are about 2.6 times lower than ICE automobile.     

Modeling the CO2 emissions from battery electric vehicles given the power generation mixes of different countries

With the number of vehicles on the world’s roads expected to grow to 2.9 billion by 2050, steps must be taken to reduce the CO₂ emissions from transport. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) can help achieve this. This study aimed to determine the CO₂ emissions stemming from BEV operation in different countries and to compare those CO₂ emissions to the emissions from similar vehicles based on internal combustion engines (ICEs). This study selected four ICE-based vehicles, and modeled BEVs based on the specifications of each of these vehicles. The modeled BEVs were run through a simulation to determine their energy consumption. Their energy consumption was combined with data on the CO₂ intensity of the power generation mix in different countries to reveal the emissions resulting from BEV operation. The CO₂ emissions from the BEVs were compared to the CO₂ emissions for their ICE-based counterparts. Amongst the results, it was shown that for China and India, and other countries with a similarly high CO₂ intensity, unless power generation becomes dramatically less CO₂ intensive, BEVs will not be able to deliver a meaningful decrease in CO₂ emissions and an increase in the penetration of BEVs could actually lead to higher CO₂ emissions.     

The forecast of motor vehicle,energy demand and CO2 emission from Taiwan's road transportation sector

The grey forecasting model, GM(1,1) was adopted in this study to capture the development trends of the number of motor vehicles, vehicular energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in Taiwan during 2007–2025. In addition, the simulation of different economic development scenarios were explored by modifying the value of the development coefficient, a, in the grey forecasting model to reflect the influence of economic growth and to be a helpful reference for realizing traffic CO₂ reduction potential and setting CO₂ mitigation strategies for Taiwan. Results showed that the vehicle fleet, energy demand and CO₂ emitted by the road transportation system continued to rise at the annual growth rates of 3.64%, 3.25% and 3.23% over the next 18 years. Besides, the simulation of different economic development scenarios revealed that the lower and upper bound values of allowable vehicles in 2025 are 30.2 and 36.3 million vehicles, respectively, with the traffic fuel consumption lies between 25.8 million kiloliters to 31.0 million kiloliters. The corresponding emission of CO₂ will be between 61.1 and 73.4 million metric tons in the low- and high-scenario profiles.     

Modeling the prospects of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles to reduce CO2 emissions

This study models the CO₂ emissions from electric (EV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV), and compares the results to published values for the CO₂ emissions from conventional vehicles based on internal combustion engines (ICE). PHEVs require fewer batteries than EVs which can make them lighter and more efficient than EVs. PHEVs can also operate their onboard ICEs more efficiently than can conventional vehicles. From this, it was theorized that PHEVs may be able to emit less CO₂ than both conventional vehicles and EVs given certain power generation mixes of varying CO₂ intensities. Amongst the results it was shown that with a highly CO₂ intensive power generation mix, such as in China, PHEVs had the potential to be responsible for fewer tank to wheel CO₂ emissions over their entire range than both a similar electric and conventional vehicle. The results also showed that unless highly CO₂ intensive countries pursue a major decarbonization of their power generation, they will not be able to fully take advantage of the ability of EVs and PHEVs to reduce the CO₂ emissions from automotive transport.     

A review on emissions and mitigation strategies for road transport in Malaysia

The emissions from road transport are serious threats to urban air quality and global warming. The first step to develop effective policies is to determine the source and amount of emissions produced. This paper attempts to review emissions from road transport using COPERT 4 model and examined possible emission mitigation strategies. In road transport, results have show that passenger cars are the main cause of CO₂, N₂O and CO emissions, while motorcycles are main source of hydrocarbon (HC) emissions. However, light duty vehicles and heavy duty vehicles are the main contribution of particulate matters. The total CO₂ equivalent emissions for road transport in Malaysia are 59,383.51 ktonnes for year 2007. Further results show that CO₂ emission is the primary source of greenhouse gas pollution which is 71% of the total CO₂ equivalent. A parametric study was conducted to estimate the potential emission mitigation strategies for road transport by taking the emissions in 2007 as a reference year. It was observed that promoting the public transport is an effective strategy to reduce emissions and fuel consumption from the technical view point. It can totally save up to 1044 ktonnes of fuel consumption and total CO₂ equivalents emissions can be decreased by 7%. It was noted that, fleet renewal and promoting natural gas vehicles will significantly contribute in the reduction of emissions in Malaysia.     

Carbon emissions by rural energy in China

Carbon emissions due to rural energy consumption in China have not yet been sufficiently addressed or quantified. In this work systematic accounting with a life cycle perspective was used to estimate both the direct CO₂ emissions from fuel combustion and the indirect emissions from the production and provision of rural energy carriers. The results indicate that the total direct CO₂ emissions resulting from rural energy consumption have nearly tripled, from 0.79 billion metric tons (hereafter ton) in 1979 to 1.98 billion tons in 2008, whilst indirect emissions have nearly quadrupled, from 0.27 billion tons to 0.85 billion tons for the same period. This finding quantitatively illustrates the importance of rural energy consumption as a contributor to China's overall carbon emission. In addition, the analysis of per capita emission from rural energy revealed significant regional disparities and similarities in emission and energy sources used. Both total and per capita CO₂ are significantly higher in the North China, which is largely due to the colder climate and the relatively high economic development levels for multi-demands of energy utilisation. The analysis and results presented here provide substantial information for policy makers in relation to energy and emission targets in China.     

Natural gas as an alternative to crude oil in automotive fuel chains well-to-wheel analysis and transition strategy development

Road transport produces significant amounts of CO₂ by using crude oil as primary energy source. A reduction of CO₂ emissions can be achieved by implementing alternative fuel chains. This article studies CO₂ emissions and energy efficiencies by means of a well to wheel analysis of alternative automotive fuel chains, using natural gas (NG) as an alternative primary energy source to replace crude oil. The results indicate that NG-based hydrogen applied in fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) lead to largest CO₂ emission reductions (up to 40% compared to current practice). However, large implementation barriers for this option are foreseen, both technically and in terms of network change. Two different transition strategies are discussed to gradually make the transition to these preferred fuel chains. Important transition technologies that are the backbone of these routes are traditional engine technology fuelled by compressed NG and a FCV fuelled by gasoline. The first is preferred in terms of carbon emissions. The results furthermore indicate that an innovation in the conventional chain, the diesel hybrid vehicle, is more efficient than many NG-based chains. This option scores well in terms of carbon emissions and implementation barriers and is a very strong option for the future.     

Impact of energy supply infrastructure in life cycle analysis of hydrogen and electric systems applied to the Portuguese transportation sector

Hydrogen and electric vehicle technologies are being considered as possible solutions to mitigate environmental burdens and fossil fuel dependency. Life cycle analysis (LCA) of energy use and emissions has been used with alternative vehicle technologies to assess the Well-to-Wheel (WTW) fuel cycle or the Cradle-to-Grave (CTG) cycle of a vehicle's materials. Fuel infrastructures, however, have thus far been neglected. This study presents an approach to evaluate energy use and CO₂ emissions associated with the construction, maintenance and decommissioning of energy supply infrastructures using the Portuguese transportation system as a case study. Five light-duty vehicle technologies are considered: conventional gasoline and diesel (ICE), pure electric (EV), fuel cell hybrid (FCHEV) and fuel cell plug-in hybrid (FC-PHEV). With regard to hydrogen supply, two pathways are analysed: centralised steam methane reforming (SMR) and on-site electrolysis conversion. Fast, normal and home options are considered for electric chargers. We conclude that energy supply infrastructures for FC vehicles are the most intensive with 0.03–0.53 MJ_eq/MJ emitting 0.7–27.3 g CO_2eq/MJ of final fuel. While fossil fuel infrastructures may be considered negligible (presenting values below 2.5%), alternative technologies are not negligible when their overall LCA contribution is considered. EV and FCHEV using electrolysis report the highest infrastructure impact from emissions with approximately 8.4% and 8.3%, respectively. Overall contributions including uncertainty do not go beyond 12%.     

Life cycle CO2 analysis of LNG and city gas

An analysis was conducted on greenhouse gas emissions from the liquified natural gas (LNG) chain and life cycle of City Gas 13A [caloric value: 46 MJ/Nm³(11,000 kcal/Nm³)], which is produced from LNG. The analysis was based on highly reliable data which are qualified in terms of source and representativeness. Actually, the latest data for CO₂ and CH₄ emissions from the natural gas field and liquefaction plant were obtained from field studies. Moreover, the analysis includes CO₂ emissions during the LNG transportation from exporting countries to Japan, city gas production and distribution stage in Japan and the manufacturing of facilities associated with the production of natural gas overseas to final domestic consumption. The reduction effect of CO₂ using LNG cryogenic energy was also considered. The evaluation showed that the level of greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumptions in the modern natural gas production and liquefaction plants were lower than those previously reported due to improvements in the production process. The results of the analysis also provide basic data essential for conducting life cycle analyses in many fields using natural gas.     

Good subsidies or bad subsidies? Evidence from low-carbon transition in China's metallurgical industry

Since the metallurgical industry has become the main source of China's carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption in recent years, low-carbon transition in that industry is of great significance for achieving China's carbon reduction targets. It is generally believed that phasing out fossil fuel subsidies is an effective way to reduce energy-related CO₂ emissions since it can increase the energy prices and lower its consumption. This paper aims to investigate whether the energy subsidy removal can promote the low-carbon transition of China's metallurgical industry. Taking inter-fuel and inter-factor substitution effects as the link, we calculate the CO₂ mitigation potential on the assumption that the subsidies for each category of fossil energy were eliminated. We find that the metallurgical industry has a sluggish reaction to the changes in energy price. Supposing eliminating the energy subsidies in the period of 2003–2015, the amount of reduced CO₂ would be 487.286 million tons, accounting for a slight proportion of the total emissions in the industry. But it is meaningful for the global CO₂ mitigation since it approximates the whole CO₂ emissions in Norway during the same period. These findings can provide some new insights for the energy subsidy issue and suggest that the additional measures are required to promote the low-carbon transition in China's metallurgical industry rather than just relying on the removal of fossil fuel subsidies.