What governs the transition to a sustainable hydrogen economy? Articulating the relationship between technologies and political institutions

There is a lack of integrated knowledge on the transition to a sustainable energy system. The paper focuses on the relationship between technologies and institutions in the field of hydrogen from the perspective of political theory. The paper unfolds four paradigms of governance: ‘Governance by policy networking’, Governance by government’, ‘Governance by corporate business’, and ‘Governance by challenge’, and looks into the major line of argument in support of these paradigms and into their possible bias with respect to hydrogen options. Each of these paradigms reveals an institutional bias in that it articulates specific opportunities for collaboration and competition in order to stimulate the transition to a sustainable hydrogen economy. The paper makes the observation that there is a compelling need to reframe fashionable discourse such as the necessary shift from government to governance or from government to market. Instead, specific questions with respect to the impact of guiding policy frameworks on innovation will highlight that neither ‘neutral’ nor ‘optimal’ frameworks for policy making exist, where competing hydrogen options are at stake. The identification of paradigms of governance maybe considered a methodological device for (participator) policy analysis.     

Restructuring energy systems for sustainability? Energy transition policy in the Netherlands

Increasingly, researchers and policy makers are confronting the challenge of restructuring energy systems into more sustainable forms. A ‘transition management’ model, and its adoption in the Netherlands, is attracting attention. Starting from the socio-technical multi-level theory that informs ‘transition management’, we analyse the ‘energy transition’ project carried out by the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs. Despite considerable achievements, their approach risks capture by the incumbent energy regime, thereby undermining original policy ambitions for structural innovation of the energy system. This experience presents generic dilemmas for transitions approaches.     

Total-factor energy productivity growth of regions in Japan

This article computes the energy productivity changes of regions in Japan using total-factor frameworks based on data envelopment analysis (DEA). Since the traditional DEA-Malmquist index cannot analyze changes in single-factor productivity changes under the total-factor framework, we apply a new index proposed by Hu and Chang [2009. Total-factor energy productivity growth of regions in China. Energy Policy, submitted for publication]: a total-factor energy productivity change index (TFEPI) that integrates the concept of the total-factor energy efficiency index into the Malmquist productivity index (MPI). Moreover, we separate TFEPI into change in relative energy efficiency, or the ‘catching up effect,’ and shift in the technology of energy use, or the ‘innovation effect.’ The data from 47 prefectures during the period of 1993–2003 are used to compute the TFEPI and its components for 4 kinds of energy. The TFEPI of electric power for commercial and industrial use changes −0.6% annually, which can be separated into a total-factor energy efficiency change of 0.2% and a technical change of −0.8%. The TFEPI for coal deteriorates by 1.0%/year, which is mostly caused by a decrease in relative energy efficiency change. We define and identify ‘innovators’ who cause the frontier to shift. Most regions identified as frontier shifters are located outside of Japan's four major industrial areas.     

The politics and policy of energy system transformation—explaining the German diffusion of renewable energy technology

To arrest climate change, a transition to a low-carbon economy must take place quite rapidly, within a century at most. Thus, the rate of diffusion of new technologies such as those for the generation of electricity from renewable energy sources becomes a central issue. This article explores the reasons for the particularly rapid spread of two such technologies in Germany, wind turbines and solar cells. We trace this diffusion to the nature of the policy instruments employed and to the political process which led to the adoption of these instruments. The analysis demonstrates how the regulatory framework is formed in a ‘battle over institutions’ where the German parliament, informed and supported by an advocacy coalition of growing strength, backed support policies for renewables sourced electricity against often reluctant governments and the opposition from nuclear and coal interests. It also demonstrates that this major political and environmental achievement carries a modest price if we consider total costs to society, i.e. including both subsidies to coal and the negative external economies of coal.     

Technological learning and renewable energy costs: implications for US renewable energy policy

This paper analyzes the relationship between current renewable energy technology costs and cumulative production, research, development and demonstration expenditures, and other institutional influences. Combining the theoretical framework of ‘learning by doing’ and developments in ‘learning by searching’ with the fields of organizational learning and institutional economics offers a complete methodological framework to examine the underlying capital cost trajectory when developing electricity cost estimates used in energy policy planning models. Sensitivities of the learning rates for global wind and solar photovoltaic technologies to changes in the model parameters are tested. The implications of the results indicate that institutional policy instruments play an important role for these technologies to achieve cost reductions and further market adoption.     

Energy efficiency—a critical view

This paper challenges the view that improving the efficiency of energy use will lead to a reduction in national energy consumption, and hence is an effective policy for reducing national CO₂ emissions. It argues that improving energy efficiency lowers the implicit price of energy and hence make its use more affordable, thus leading to greater use—an effect termed the ‘rebound’ or ‘takeback’ effect. The paper presents the views of economists, as well as green critics of ‘the gospel of efficiency’. The paper argues that a more effective CO₂ policy is to concentrate on shifting to non-fossil fuels, like renewables, subsidized through a carbon tax. Ultimately what is needed, to limit energy consumption, is energy sufficiency (or conservation) rather than energy efficiency.     

Transitioning to low carbon communities—from behaviour change to systemic change: Lessons from Australia

Transitioning to low carbon communities requires an understanding of community practices and resultant emissions, as well as the technologies, infrastructures and institutions associated with and accessed by communities. Moreover, it requires an understanding of the connections between these integrated system components, its dynamics, a defined transition and potential ‘levers’ involved in ‘transitioning’. This paper accepts the notion that ‘levers’ include programmes designed to achieve practice or behaviour change in households which result in less carbon intensive lifestyles, and focuses on the factors that shape human behaviour and influence householder energy consumption. Research to date by the authors and others indicates that a comprehensive socio-technical framework that considers both individual psychological factors as well as the systems, standards and norms under which individuals operate is fundamental to the development of successful strategies to shift towards low carbon communities.     

What lessons have been learned in reforming the Renewables Obligation? An analysis of internal and external failures in UK renewable energy policy

Despite operating a delivery programme for RES-E since 1990, UK targets and policy goals have not been achieved. In response, the Government reformed the RO. This article re-examines UK renewable energy policy by analysing the internal and external failures of the various mechanisms to determine if Government has learnt from previous experience in reforming the RO. Government did not learn from their own actions during the NFFO/RO transition, evidenced by high-levels of similarity in internal/external failures. The reformed-RO is expected to significantly increase deployment, has provided a ‘renewables package’ by comprehensively addressing both internal/external failures but major internal failures (price/financial risk) still remain, resulting in contiguous failures over two decades and two mechanism changes (NFFO, RO, RO/reformed-RO). Success will again be heavily dependent on a select few technologies and new/untested measures to combat external failures. Mechanism-extension to 2037 is probably the single most important factor underlying potential deployment increases. However, introducing a FIT-like system via the sheer number of ‘bolt-on’ reforms to counter policy failures indicates loss of direction and clarity. Overall, although Government appears to have learnt some of its lessons from the past two-decades, significant doubt remains whether renewable energy policy objectives will be met via the latest mechanism change.     

Considering only first-order effects? How simplifications lead to unrealistic technology optimism in climate change mitigation

This article challenges the notion that energy efficiency and ‘clean’ energy technologies can deliver sufficient degrees of climate change mitigation. By six arguments not widely recognized in the climate policy arena, we argue that unrealistic technology optimism exists in current climate change mitigation assessments, and, consequently, world energy and climate policy. The overarching theme of the arguments is that incomplete knowledge of indirect effects, and neglect of interactions between parts of physical and social sub-systems, systematically leads to overly optimistic assessments. Society must likely seek deeper changes in social and economic structures to preserve the climatic conditions to which the human civilization is adapted. We call for priority to be given to research evaluating aspects of mitigation in a broad, system-wide perspective.     

Maximizing efficiency in the transition to a coal-based economy

Energy is the lynchpin of modern society. Since the early 1970s, growing dependence on foreign energy sources, oil in particular, has constrained US independence in foreign policy, and at times, inhibited economic stability and growth. Addressing oil dependence is politically and economically complex. Proposed solutions are multifaceted with various objectives such as energy efficiency and resource substitution. One solution is the partial transition from an oil- to coal-based economy. A number of facts support this solution including vast coal reserves in the US and the relative price stability of coal. However, several roadblocks exist. These include uncertain recoverable reserves and the immaturity of “clean” coal technologies. This paper provides a first order analysis of the most efficient use of coal assuming the transition from oil to coal is desirable. Scenario analysis indicates two possible transition pathways: (1) bring the transportation sector onto the electric grid and (2) use coal-to-liquid fuels to directly power vehicles. The feasibility of each pathway is examined based on economic and environmental factors, among which are energy availability, affordability and efficiency, and environmental sustainability. Results indicate that partial transition of the transportation sector onto the electric grid offers the more viable solution for coal-based reduction of the US oil dependence.     

The impact of the EU ETS on the sectoral innovation system for power generation technologies – Findings for Germany

This paper provides an overview of early changes in the sectoral innovation system for power generation technologies which have been triggered by the European Emission Trading System (EU ETS). Based on a broad definition of the sector, our research analyses the impact of the EU ETS on the four building blocks ‘knowledge and technologies’, ‘actors and networks’, ‘institutions’, and ‘demand’ by combining two streams of literature, namely systems of innovation and environmental economics. Our analysis for Germany is based on 42 exploratory interviews with experts in the field of the EU ETS, the power sector, and technological innovation. We find that the EU ETS mainly affects the rate and direction of technological change of power generation technologies within the large-scale, coal-based power generation technological regime, to which carbon capture technologies are added as a new technological trajectory. While this impact can be interpreted as the defensive behaviour of incumbents, the observed changes should not be underestimated. We argue that the EU ETS’ impact on corporate CO₂ culture and routines may prepare the ground for the transition to a low-carbon sectoral innovation system for power generation technologies.     

Policy strategies and paths to promote sustainable energy systems—The dynamic Invert simulation tool

The European Union has established a number of targets regarding energy efficiency, Renewable Energy Sources (RES) and CO₂ reductions as the ‘GREEN PAPER on Energy Efficiency’, the Directive for ‘promotion of the use of bio-fuels or other renewable fuels for transport’ or ‘Directive of the European Parliament of the Council on the promotion of cogeneration based on a useful heat demand in the internal energy market’. Many of the according RES and RUE measures are not attractive for investors from an economic point of view. Therefore, governments all over the world have to spend public money to promote these technologies/measures to bring them into market. These expenditures have to be adjusted to budget concerns and should be spent most efficiently. Therefore, the spent money has to be dedicated to technologies and efficiency measures with the best yield in CO₂ reduction without wasting money.     

The role of discourse and linguistic framing effects in sustaining high carbon energy policy—An accessible introduction

This paper seeks to provide an accessible introduction to the relevance to energy policy of a fundamental insight from the policy sciences. This concerns the role that the linguistic framing of policy problems and solutions can play in sustaining the dominance of existing policy positions. The paper introduces a discourse perspective to understanding the policy process and uses it to analyse four central goals pursued in energy policy: access, security, efficiency and environmental acceptability, drawing on examples from UK policy documents. It introduces readers to how, as well as requiring technical and economic solutions, a transition to a low carbon energy system will also require a ‘reframing’ of energy policy problems and solutions in a way that either connects with, or overrides the powerful discourses that shape energy policy today.     

Uncertainties in key low carbon power generation technologies – Implication for UK decarbonisation targets

The UK government’s economy-wide 60% carbon dioxide reduction target by 2050 requires a paradigm shift in the whole energy system. Numerous analytical studies have concluded that the power sector is a critical contributor to a low carbon energy system, and electricity generation has dominated the policy discussion on UK decarbonisation scenarios. However, range of technical, social and market challenges, combined with alternate market investment strategies mean that large scale deployment of key classes of low carbon electricity technologies is fraught with uncertainty. The UK MARKAL energy systems model has been used to investigate these long-term uncertainties in key electricity generation options. A range of power sector specific parametric sensitivities have been performed under a ‘what-if’ framework to provide a systematic exploration of least-cost energy system configurations under a broad, integrated set of input assumptions. In this paper results of six sensitivities, via restricted investments in key low carbon technologies to reflect their technical and political uncertainties, and an alternate investment strategies from perceived risk and other barriers, have been presented.     

Behavioural responses to photovoltaic systems in the UK domestic sector

Microgeneration—the generation of electricity and/or heat within the home—has recently become a notable addition to UK energy policy debates. Specifically research has suggested that, as well as providing renewable energy, these technologies might encourage changes in household energy consumption. The research presented here investigates this ‘double-dividend’ effect using PV households in the UK. It is shown that the installation of PV encouraged households to reduce their overall electricity consumption by approximately 6% and shift demand to times of peak generation. From a household perspective, system performance monitors had the most notable influence on these behavioural responses; however evolving industry arrangements for metering and microgeneration tariffs will be central in determining the future role of consumers. The paper therefore concludes that the full benefits of microgeneration can only be realised if informed households are integrated within supportive industry and government frameworks.     

Industrial combined heat and power (CHP) planning: Development of a methodology and application in Greece

This paper establishes a methodology for the estimation of the primary energy savings of an industrial (sub)-sector and the primary energy savings of the total energy system due to CHP. A primary energy savings indicator within a (sub)-sector and a total primary energy savings indicator are developed which are related with the actual energy use of a (sub)-sector and the way of disposal of the excess CHP energy produced. The methodology is applied in an industrial sub-sector in Greece according to the ‘power match’ and the ‘thermal match’ CHP sizing scenarios; subsequently results are presented and the developed indicators are fully explained. It was found that the primary energy savings indicator of a sub-sector is determined by the efficiencies of the relevant technologies, and the interrelation of the ‘power to heat’ ratio of the CHP technology used and the ‘power to heat’ ratio of the sub-sector examined; the total primary energy savings indicator is determined by the efficiencies of the relevant technologies and the percentage of the CHP energy exported from the sub-sector. The methodology can be utilized for optimum CHP planning.     

On the baseline evolution of automobile fuel economy in Europe

‘Business as usual’ scenarios in long-term energy forecasts are crucial for scenario-based policy analyses. This article focuses on fuel economy of passenger cars and light trucks, a long-disputed issue with serious implications for worldwide energy use and CO₂ emissions. The current status in Europe is explained and future developments are analysed with the aid of historical data of the last three decades from the United States and Europe. As a result of this analysis, fuel economy values are proposed for use as assumptions in baseline energy/transport scenarios in the 15 ‘old’ European Union Member States. Proposed values are given for new gasoline and diesel cars and for the years 2010, 2020 and 2030. The increasing discrepancy between vehicle fuel consumption measured under test conditions and that in the real world is also considered. One main conclusion is that the European Commission's voluntary agreement with the automobile industry should not be assumed to fully achieve its target under baseline conditions, nor should it be regarded as a major stimulus for autonomous vehicle efficiency improvements after 2010. A second conclusion is that three very recent studies enjoying authority across the EU tend to be overly optimistic as regards the technical progress for conventional and alternative vehicle propulsion technologies under ‘business as usual’ conditions.     

Can ‘negative net CO2 emissions’ from decarbonised biogas-to-electricity contribute to solving Poland’s carbon capture and sequestration dilemmas?

The article analyses to what extent ‘negative net CO₂ emissions’ from decarbonised biogas-to-electricity can contribute to solving Poland’s carbon capture and sequestration dilemmas. From the criteria-based evaluation of low-carbon power technologies it is found, that biogas-to-electricity is among technologies having increasing production potential in Poland. Therefore, in future biogas will be able to contribute to solving Poland’s CCS dilemmas, because it offers carbon-neutral electricity. Moreover, by applying CCS into biogas-to-electricity the ‘negative net CO₂ emissions’ can be achieved. The article examines three biogas-to-electricity technologies involving CO₂ capture, i.e. biogas-to-biomethane, biogas-to-CHP and biogas-to-electricity via the ORFC cycle. It is emphasised that the ORFC cycle offers low-cost CO₂ separation from a CO₂-H₂ mixture, low O₂-intensity, and the opportunities for advanced mass and energy integration of involved processes. Besides, energy conversion calculations show that the ORFC cycle can offer comparable cycle efficiency with air- and oxy-combustion combined cycles. In regard to the design of biogas-based energy systems it is recommended to include (i) distributed production of biogas in order to avoid costs of long-distance transportation of high-moisture content biomass and (ii) centralised large-scale decarbonised biogas-to-electricity power plants since costs of pipeline transportation of gases are low but large-scale plants could benefit from increased energy and CCS efficiencies.     

Analysis of the market penetration of clean coal technologies and its impacts in China's electricity sector

This paper discusses policy instruments for promoting the market penetration of clean coal technologies (CCTs) into China's electricity sector and the evaluation of corresponding effects. Based on the reality that coal will remain the predominant fuel to generate electricity and conventional pulverized coal boiler power plants have serious impacts on environment degradation, development of clean coal technologies could be one alternative to meet China's fast growing demand of electricity as well as protect the already fragile environment. A multi-period market equilibrium model is applied and an electricity model of China is established to forecast changes in the electricity system up to 2030s. Three policy instruments: SO₂ emission charge, CO₂ emission charge and implementing subsidies are considered in this research. The results show that all instruments cause a significant shift in China's electricity structure, promote CCTs’ competitiveness and lead China to gain great benefit in both resource saving and environment improvement. Since resource security and environment degradation are becoming primary concerns in China, policies that could help to gain generations’ market share of advanced coal-based technologies such as CCTs’ is suitable for the current situation of China's electricity sector.