Forecasting total and industrial sector electricity demand based on genetic algorithm approach: Turkey case study

This study deals with estimation of the total and industrial sector electricity consumption based on genetic algorithm (GA) approach, and then proposes two scenarios to project future consumptions. Total electricity consumption is estimated based on gross national product (GNP), population, import and export figures of Turkey. Industrial sector electricity is calculated based on the GNP, import and export figures. Three forms of the genetic algorithm electricity demand (GAED) models for the total and two forms for the industrial electricity consumption are developed. The best‐fit GAED model in terms of total minimum relative average errors between observed and estimated values is selected for future demand estimation. ‘High‐ and low‐growth scenarios’ are proposed for predicting the future electricity consumption. Results showed that the GAED estimates the electricity demand in comparison with the other electricity demand projections. The GAED model plans electricity demand of Turkey until 2020. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Energy usage and cost in textile industry: A case study for Turkey

The Turkish textile industry holds a relatively important position in the world and thus plays a major role in Turkey's exports. Energy consumption is important for the textile industry in Turkey because it is the largest export sector. Energy usage in the textile industry in Turkey is inefficient, and energy consumption has been growing very rapidly due to population growth, rapid urbanization and industrial development. For future planning, it is important to know the current specific energy consumption (energy consumption/production) and the energy intensity (energy consumption/cost of energy) in order to estimate future energy consumption for the textile sector. In this study, a survey has been carried out to show energy consumption, energy cost and the relationship between the energy usage and textile production. The results of the energy survey have been presented in both figure and table form.     

Potential of renewable energy in electrical energy production and sustainable energy development of Turkey: Performance and policies

Generating electricity, from renewable energy sources has become a high priority in the energy policy strategies at a national level as well as on a global scale. Although Turkey has many energy resources only coal and hydropower are significant at present, and as demand had risen, it has been necessary to import fuels to meet the total energy demand. The fossil resources, both indigenous and imported, have become expensive and also have undesirably high emissions. Turkey has an extensive shoreline and mountains and is rich in renewable energy potential. The share of renewables on total electricity generation is 35% while that of thermal power is 65% for the year 2010. Turkey is one of those countries that are considered rich and abundant in renewable energy resources.Turkey is facing serious challenges in satisfying its growing energy demand. To fuel a rapidly growing economy, the country’s electricity consumption is increasing by an average of 8–9% every year, and significant investments are needed in generation, transmission and distribution facilities to balance the power system’s supply and demand. With very limited oil and gas reserves, Turkey is increasingly turning to renewable energy sources as a means to improve its energy security and curb dependence on imported gas from Russia and Iran. This paper investigates the potential of renewable energy resources in Turkey at present and the magnitude of their present and future contributions to the national energy consumption. Energy politics are also considered.     

Electric energy demands of Turkey in residential and industrial sectors

The main objective of the present study is to apply the artificial neural network (ANN) methodology, linear regression (LR) and nonlinear regression (NLR) models to estimate the electricity consumptions of the residential and industrial sectors in Turkey. Installed capacity, gross electricity generation, population and total subscribership were selected as independent variables. Two different scenarios (powerful and poor) were proposed for prediction of the future electricity consumption. Obtained results of the LR, NLR and ANN models were also compared with each other as well as the projection of the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (MENR) and the results in literature. Results of the comparison showed that the performance values of the ANN method are better than the performance values of the LR and NLR models. According to the poor scenario and ANN model, Turkey's residential and industrial sector electricity consumptions will increase to value of 140.64 TWh and 124.85 TWh by 2015, respectively.     

Analysis of the Syrian long-term energy and electricity demand projection using the end-use methodology

A comprehensive analysis of the possible future long-term development of Syrian energy and electricity demand covering the period 1999–2030 is presented. The analysis was conducted using the IAEA's model MAED, which relies upon the end-use approach. This model has been validated during the last two decades through the successful application in many developing countries, even those having partial market economy and energy subsidy.     

Electricity consumption,electricity intensity and industrial structure

This paper describes an analysis of recent trends in industrial output and electricity consumption carried out at the Electricity Council. The analysis examines the significance of changes in industrial structure and in the intensity of electricity use within major industries using a simple arithmetical procedure. The conclusion reached is that such factors have, in recent years, had a major influence on trends in industrial electricity consumption. The importance of these factors explains why simple econometric models which describe industrial electricity sales as a function of total industrial output have proved unsatisfactory for forecasting purposes. This conclusion underlines the need to use a disaggregated approach to electricity forecasting, an approach which the electricity industry has used increasingly.     

Hydropower–water and renewable energy in Turkey: Sources and policy

Turkey's energy consumption has been growing much faster than its production. It forces Turkey to make a rapid action to supply energy demand. From the viewpoint of primary energy sources (petroleum and natural gas), Turkey is not a rich country, but it has an abundant hydropower potential to be used for generation of electricity. Hydropower is the most important kind of renewable, sustainable energy and a proven technology for electricity generation. The aim of this paper is to discuss sources and policy of hydropower, water and renewable energy in Turkey and compares the hydropower application with Europe.     

Short term and medium term power distribution load forecasting by neural networks

Load forecasting is an important subject for power distribution systems and has been studied from different points of view. In general, load forecasts should be performed over a broad spectrum of time intervals, which could be classified into short term, medium term and long term forecasts. Several research groups have proposed various techniques for either short term load forecasting or medium term load forecasting or long term load forecasting. This paper presents a neural network (NN) model for short term peak load forecasting, short term total load forecasting and medium term monthly load forecasting in power distribution systems. The NN is used to learn the relationships among past, current and future temperatures and loads. The neural network was trained to recognize the peak load of the day, total load of the day and monthly electricity consumption. The suitability of the proposed approach is illustrated through an application to real load shapes from the Turkish Electricity Distribution Corporation (TEDAS) in Nigde. The data represents the daily and monthly electricity consumption in Nigde, Turkey.     

Multiple criteria evaluation of current energy resources for Turkish manufacturing industry

Energy is the main component of natural resources of developing, as well as developed, countries like Turkey. Because of economic and social developments, the demand for energy, in general, has increased considerably in Turkey. Since Turkey is not an oil or natural gas (NG) producing country, the energy resource usage for energy consumption should be effective. The Turkish industrial sector comprises approximately 36% of Turkey’s primary energy consumption, and the manufacturing industry is the largest industrial sector. In this study, the focus was on the manufacturing industry as the major energy consuming sector in Turkey, and it was analyzed in terms of efficient use of energy resources. The most widely used energy resources in the Turkish manufacturing industry, namely fuel-oil, coal, electricity, LPG and NG were taken into account. Evaluation and selection of current energy resources in this selected industry can be viewed as a multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) problem, including human judgments, tangible and intangible criteria and priorities and trade offs between goals and criteria. The analytic network process (ANP), one of the MCDM methods, was used to evaluate the most suitable energy resources for the manufacturing industry in this study.     

Time series models (Grey-Markov,Grey Model with rolling mechanism and singular spectrum analysis) to forecast energy consumption in India

The present study applies three time series models, namely, Grey-Markov model, Grey-Model with rolling mechanism, and singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to forecast the consumption of conventional energy in India. Grey-Markov model has been employed to forecast crude-petroleum consumption while Grey-Model with rolling mechanism to forecast coal, electricity (in utilities) consumption and SSA to predict natural gas consumption. The models for each time series has been selected by carefully examining the structure of the individual time series. The mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for two out of sample forecasts have been obtained as follows: 1.6% for crude-petroleum, 3.5% for coal, 3.4% for electricity and 3.4% for natural gas consumption. For two out of sample forecasts, the prediction accuracy for coal consumption was 97.9%, 95.4% while for electricity consumption the prediction accuracy was 96.9%, 95.1%. Similarly, the prediction accuracy for crude-petroleum consumption was found to be 99.2%, 97.6% while for natural gas consumption these values were 98.6%, 94.5%. The results obtained have also been compared with those of Planning Commission of India's projection. The comparison clearly points to the enormous potential that these time series models possess in energy consumption forecasting and can be considered as a viable alternative.     

Electricity end-uses in the residential sector of Brazil

The residential energy consumption has been studied in many countries as it usually accounts for a large percentage of the total energy consumption. Energy end-uses have also been a matter of concern as they can assist energy system planning. The objective of this paper is to assess the actual scenario of electricity consumption and estimate electricity end-uses in the residential sector of Brazil for different bioclimatic zones. The analysis is based on a survey performed by 17 energy utilities enclosing a total of 17,643 houses or flats over 12 states in Brazil. The survey was performed to obtain electricity consumption data for all household appliances found in houses and flats. The electricity end-uses were estimated by performing weighted averages according to the location of the dwellings in each bioclimatic zone. Results indicate that the largest end-uses are for refrigerator and freezer together, which account for about 38–49% of the electricity consumption in dwellings in Brazil. Air-conditioning and electric shower are the end-uses that are more dependent on the climatic conditions. The main conclusion that can be made from the analysis is that air-conditioning should be a major concern in the residential sector of Brazil in the near future as its ownership is still low, but its electricity consumption is already significant mainly over summer.     

Industrial electricity demand for Turkey: A structural time series analysis

This research investigates the relationship between Turkish industrial electricity consumption, industrial value added and electricity prices in order to forecast future Turkish industrial electricity demand. To achieve this, an industrial electricity demand function for Turkey is estimated by applying the structural time series technique to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008. In addition to identifying the size and significance of the price and industrial value added (output) elasticities, this technique also uncovers the electricity Underlying Energy Demand Trend (UEDT) for the Turkish industrial sector and is, as far as is known, the first attempt to do this. The results suggest that output and real electricity prices and a UEDT all have an important role to play in driving Turkish industrial electricity demand. Consequently, they should all be incorporated when modelling Turkish industrial electricity demand and the estimated UEDT should arguably be considered in future energy policy decisions concerning the Turkish electricity industry. The output and price elasticities are estimated to be 0.15 and − 0.16 respectively, with an increasing (but at a decreasing rate) UEDT and based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish industrial electricity demand will be somewhere between 97 and 148 TWh by 2020.     

A renewable perspective for sustainable energy development in Turkey: The case of small hydropower plants

Renewable energy resources provide a large share of the total energy consumption of many developing countries. Turkey's renewable sources are the second largest source for energy production after coal. About two-thirds of the renewable energy produced is obtained from biomass, while the rest is mainly from hydroelectric energy. Hydropower is today the most important kind of renewable and sustainable energy. In Turkey, most of the important water power plants have been developed; hence, only a modest increase in the hydroelectric generating capability can be anticipated in the next two decades. Turkey has a gross annual hydro potential of 433,000 GWh, which is almost 1% of world total potential. Its share is about 16% of the total hydropower capacity in Europe. The total gross electricity production of Turkey has reached about 140,283 GWh in 2003, 75% of this is produced from thermal sources and the reminder 25% from hydropower. The main objective in doing the present study is to investigate the sustainable development of Turkey's small hydropower (SHP) plants. Development of SHP began in 1902 in Turkey. Total installed projects capacity of SHP plant is 2.45% and the total energy potential is about 2.96%, which have installed capacity less than 10 MW.     

A new ship energy management algorithm to the smart electricity grid system

In this paper, a new energy management algorithm has been suggested for the ships connected with alternative energies considering the smart electricity grid features. The algorithm focuses on the use of optimum energy source on the shipboard based on the priorities of authorities such as the most economic, environmental, or both criteria at the ports. The algorithm is performed in MATLAB, and several case studies are simulated to validate the results. The 5 maritime nations, which are at different regions: United States, Belgium, Turkey, China, and Australia, are taken into account in the case studies. The actual data of a bulk carrier ship have been used to achieve tangible results in the simulations. The results of the case studies are compared to determine the changes of energy cost and released emission to meet demand of electricity on the ships. Capital cost of the proposed concept is also given to make an economic evaluation. The results show that the ship energy management algorithm provides the significant economic and environmental advantages. This paper aims to contribute to the importance of the ships in the smart electricity grid concept for the maritime and electricity sector representatives.     

Energy production and sustainable energy policies in Turkey

Turkey's demand for energy and electricity is increasing rapidly. Turkey is heavily dependent on expensive imported energy resources that place a big burden on the economy and air pollution is becoming a great environmental concern in the country. Turkey's energy production meets nearly 28% of its total primary energy consumption. As would be expected, the rapid expansion of energy production and consumption has brought with it a wide range of environmental issues at the local, regional and global levels. With respect to global environmental issues, Turkey's carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions have grown along with its energy consumption. States have played a leading role in protecting the environment by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). In this regard, renewable energy resources appear to be the one of the most efficient and effective solutions for clean and sustainable energy development in Turkey. Turkey presently has considerable renewable energy sources. The most important renewable sources are hydropower, biomass, geothermal, solar and wind. Turkey's geographical location has several advantages for extensive use of most of these renewable energy sources. Turkey has a great and ever-intensifying need for power and water supplies and they also have the greatest remaining hydro potential. Hydropower and especially small hydropower are emphasized as Turkey's renewable energy sources. Turkey's hydro electric potential can meet 33–46% of its electric energy demand in 2020 and this potential may easily and economically be developed. This paper presents a review of the potential and utilization of the renewable energy sources in Turkey.     

Renewable energy sources in Turkey for climate change mitigation and energy sustainability

In Turkey, there is a much more potential for renewables, but represent about 37% of total energy production and 10% of total energy consumption. This share is not enough for the country and the governments should be increase to this situation. Renewable energy technologies of wind, biomass, hydropower, geothermal, solar thermal and photovoltaics are finally showing maturity and the ultimate promise of cost competitiveness. With respect to global environmental issues, Turkey's carbon dioxide emissions have grown along with its energy consumption. States have played a leading role in protecting the environment by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases. In this regard, renewable energy resources appear to be the one of the most efficient and effective solutions for clean and sustainable energy development in Turkey. Turkey's geographical location has several advantages for extensive use of most of these renewable energy sources. Certain policy interventions could have a dramatic impact on shaping the relationship between geological, geographic and climatic conditions and energy production. This study shows that there is enough renewable energy potential in Turkey for fuels and electricity. Especially hydropower and biomass are very well.     

Impact of industrial virtual power plant on renewable energy integration

An industrial park is one of the typical energy consumption schemes in power systems owing to the heavy industrial loads and their abilities to respond to electricity price changes. Therefore, energy integration in the industrial sector is significant. Accordingly, the concept of industrial virtual power plant (IVPP) has been proposed to deal with such problems. This study demonstrates an IVPP model to manage resources in an eco-industrial park, including energy storage systems, demand response (DR) resources, and distributed energies. In addition, fuzzy theory is used to change the deterministic system constraints to fuzzy parameters, considering the uncertainty of renewable energy, and fuzzy chance constraints are then set based on the credibility theory. By maximizing the daily benefits of the IVPP owners in day-ahead markets, DR and energy storage systems can be scheduled economically. Therefore, the energy between the grid and IVPP can flow in both directions: the surplus renewable electricity of IVPP can be sold in the market; when the electricity generated inside IVPP is not enough for its use, IVPP can also purchase power through the market. Case studies based on three wind-level scenarios demonstrate the efficient synergies between IVPP resources. The validation results indicate that IVPP can optimize the supply and demand resources in industrial parks, thereby decarbonizing the power systems.     

Optimization of insulation thickness for external walls using different energy-sources

In countries that import most of their energy, like Turkey, energy saving and the effective usage of energy become much more important. Energy consumption for heating is too high in Turkey because buildings have almost no insulation. Also the high prices of heating energy in Turkey, emphasize the need for energy saving. Therefore, the optimum insulation-thickness of the external wall for the five different energy-sources (coal, natural gas, LPG, fuel oil and electricity) and two different insulation materials (expanded polystyrene, rock wool) are calculated for Denizli. The optimization is based on a life-cycle cost analysis. According to the results, the optimum has been obtained by using coal as the energy source and expanded polystyrene as the insulating material. When the optimum insulation-thickness is used the life cycle saving and payback period are 14.09 $/m² and 1.43 years, respectively.     

Proposal for a combined methodology for renewable energy planning. Application to a Spanish region

The article here presented aims to contribute to renewable energies development at regional level, proposing a methodology for the establishment of strategies needed to reach, in the long term, an energy system more sustainable and mainly based upon autochthonous resources.Current energy planning models are investigated, analysing its convenience to design a sustainable energy system, and a new methodology, that combines three different approaches, is proposed. Such new “hybrid” methodology resumes advantages of territorial strategic planning methods, based upon SWOT analysis, along with characteristics extracted both from Multicriteria decision analysis techniques and expert opinion “Delphi” methods.Nowadays, decisions concerning energy system cannot be consider under one specific criterion. Different implications, energetic, environmental or socioeconomic, derived from changes on energy development make it unavoidable to use tools and techniques that could take into account such multiplicity. It has been also intended to take advantage of the know-how acquired along the territorial strategic planning process carried out in the region to analyse, from year 1997 to 2000. This approach has allowed to integrate, under a unique methodology, tools from energy planning with those one used, and successfully tested, for the elaboration of the strategic plan for Jaén Province.The proposed methodology has been applied to Jaén Province in order to design a renewable energy plan for the region, setting strategic action lines and fixing strategic goals to be met on year 2010 by the provincial energy system. The objective regarding electricity production from renewable resources, on year 2010, is fixed above 1630 GWh, which represents a 43% of the total foreseeable electricity consumption. Overall contribution of renewable sources in provincial energy system is finally set to 28.3%, in terms of final energy.     

Past,present and future status of electricity in Turkey and the share of energy sources

With a young and growing population, low per capita electricity consumption, rapid urbanization and—until recently—strong economic growth, Turkey for nearly two decades has been one of the fastest growing power markets in the world. Prior to Turkey's recent severe economic difficulties, Turkey's electricity consumption had been growing much faster than its production. It forces Turkey make a rapid action to supply electricity demand. Installed power generation capacity in Turkey reached about 31.84 GW in 2002. However, the growth in electricity generation has remained below the electricity demand, which made Turkey a net importer of electricity since, 1996. Projections show that Turkey's electricity consumption would continue over the next 15 years.