共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Binglong Wang Yanpeng Cai Xin’An Yin Qian Tan Yan Hao 《Water Resources Management》2017,31(5):1665-1694
An integrated approach of system dynamics (SD), orthogonal experimental design (OED) and inexact optimization modeling was proposed for water resources management under uncertainty. The developed method adopted a combination of SD and OED to identify key scenarios within multiple factors, through which interval solutions for water demands could be obtained as input data for consequential optimization modeling. Also, optimal schemes could be obtained in the combination of inexact two-stage stochastic programming and credibility constrained programming. The developed method was applied to a real-world case study for supporting allocation of multiple-source water resources to multiple users in Dalian city within a multi-year context. The results indicated that a lower credibility-satisfaction level would generate higher allocation efficiency, a higher system benefit and a lower system violation risk. The developed model could successfully reflect and address the variety of uncertainties through provision of credibility levels, which corresponds to the decision makers’ preference regarding the tradeoffs between system benefits and violation risks. 相似文献
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This paper developed a stochastic linear fractional programming model for industry optimization allocation base on the uncertainty of water resources incorporating chance constrained programming and fractional programming. In this paper, the stochastic linear fractional programming is used in the real word. The development SLFP has the following advantages: (1) The model can compare the two aspects of the targets; (2) The model can reflect the system efficiency intuitively; (3) The model can deal with uncertain issues with probability distribution; (4) The model can give different optimal plans under different risk conditions. The model has a significant value for the industry optimization allocation under uncertainty in local and areas to achieve the maximum economic benefits and the full use of the water resources. 相似文献
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In this study, a scenario-based interval-stochastic fraticle optimization with Laplace criterion (SISFL) method is developed for sustainable water resources allocation and water quality management (WAQM) under multiple uncertainties. SISFL can tackle uncertainties presented as interval parameters and probability distributions; meanwhile, it can also quantify artificial fuzziness such as risk-averse attitude in a decision-making issue. Besides, it can reflect random scenario occurrence under the supposition of no data available. The developed method is applied to a real case of water resources allocation and water quality management in the Kaidu-kongque River Basin, where encounter serve water deficit and water quality degradation simultaneously in Northwest China. Results of water allocation pattern, pollution mitigation scheme, and system benefit under various scenarios are analyzed. The tradeoff between economic activity and water-environment protection with interval necessity levels and Laplace criterions can support policymakers generating an effective and robust manner associated with risk control for WAQM under multiple uncertainties. These discoveries avail local policymakers gain insight into the capacity planning of water-environment to satisfy the basin’s integrity of socio-economic development and eco-environmental sustainability. 相似文献
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In this study, an inventory-theory-based inexact chance-constrained multi-stage stochastic programming (IB-ICCMSP) model under multi-uncertainties is developed. IB-ICCMSP integrates inventory theory into an inexact chance-constrained multi-stage stochastic optimization framework. This method can not only effectively address system multiple uncertainties (e.g. discrete intervals and probability density functions) and dynamic features, but also provide water transferring and allocating schemes among multiple stages. The developed model is applied to irrigation water allocation optimization system in Zhangye City, Gansu province, China. Based on the runoff simulation prediction of Yingluo Gorge and water supply–demand balance analysis of the 12 irrigation areas in Zhangye City, different optimal irrigation water measures are generated under different flow levels and different probabilities in the planning year. The obtained results are valuable for supporting the adjustment of the existing irrigation patterns and identifying desired water-allocation plans for irrigation under multi-uncertainties. 相似文献
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Development of a Dynamic Long-Term Water Allocation Model for Agriculture and Industry Water Demands 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Demands growth and water resources limitation, enforce water sector policy makers to integrate water supply–demand interactions
in a coherent framework for efficient water allocation. Water supply–demand interaction, changes long-term trend of water
demands, which in turn has a substantial influence on water allocation. Researches on water allocation modeling lack adequate
projection of relationship between water supply and demand. Socio-economic factors representing water allocation stakeholders’
benefits, account for the main share of water supply–demand interaction. Identification, representation and consideration
of these factors in a water allocation model, is the main limitation of researches on this issue. In this paper a new long-term
water allocation model at basin level is developed and introduced. This model considers water supply–demand interaction in
agriculture and industry sectors, by use of socio-economic parameters; such as, production, cultivated land area, revenue
and employment. The model main advantage is its ability to reflect the interrelationship between essential hydro-system and
supply–demand components. It can explore both socio-economic and water allocation consequences of various policy choices.
The model is used to assess two different development policies at basin level. The first one is fourth 5-year development
plan of Iran, which fixes predefined growth rate for different sectors. The second one assumes the present state continues
up to the end of planning horizon. A typical multi-reservoir water basin is modeled and analyzed for two policies. Indices
that summarize long-term state of hydro-system and stakeholders are defined and used in policies assessment and decision making.
Results of these assessments show fourth 5-year development policy provides opportunities for substantial improvement in water
allocation and stakeholders’ benefits. 相似文献
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Farhang Daneshmand Akbar Karimi Mohammad Reza Nikoo Mohammad Reza Bazargan-Lari Jan Adamowski 《Water Resources Management》2014,28(6):1517-1529
Multi-period optimization of conjunctive water management can utilize reservoirs and aquifer carry-over to alleviate drought impacts. Stakeholders’ socio-economic and environmental indices can be used to minimize the socio-economic and environmental costs associated with water shortages in drought periods. The knowledge gap here is the evaluation and inclusion of the socio-economic and environmental value of conjunctive water management in terms of its drought mitigation capability. In this paper, an integrated water quantity-quality optimization model that considers socio-economic and environmental indices is developed. The model considers and integrates reservoir and aquifer carry-over, river-aquifer interaction and water quality with stakeholders’ socio-economic indices of production, net income and labor force employment to evaluate the socio-economic and environmental value of conjunctive water management. Total dissolved solid (TDS) is used as the water quality index for environmental assessments. The model is formulated as a multi-period nonlinear optimization model, with analysis determining the optimal decisions for reservoir release and withdrawal from the river and aquifer in different months to maximize the socio-economic indices of stakeholders within the environmental constraints. The proposed model is used in Zayandehrood water resource system in Iran, which suffers from water supply and pollution problems. Model analysis results show that conjunctive water use in the Zayandehrood water basin reduces salinity by 50 % in the wetland and keeps water supply reduction during a drought under 10 % of irrigation demand. 相似文献
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A Dynamic Model for Vulnerability Assessment of Regional Water Resources in Arid Areas: A Case Study of Bayingolin, China 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
Guangyang Wu Lanhai Li Sajjad Ahmad Xi Chen Xiangliang Pan 《Water Resources Management》2013,27(8):3085-3101
Water scarcity is a common problem in many countries, especially those located in arid zones. The vulnerability of water resources due to climate change is an imperative research focus in the field of water resources management. In this study, a System Dynamics (SD) model was developed to simulate the water supply-and-demand process in Bayingolin, a prefecture in China, and to evaluate water resources vulnerability currently as well as in the future. The model was calibrated and validated using historical data. Three alternative scenarios were designed by changing parameters to test the vulnerability of water resources: i) increase the Wastewater Treatment Rate by 50 %; ii) decrease the Irrigation Water Demand per Hectare by 20 %; iii) increase Total Water Supply by 5 %. Results show that the baseline vulnerability of study region is high. The agricultural irrigation is the largest water use, and the water demand structure will change in future. Decreasing the irrigation water demand is the most suitable intervention to relatively reduce the vulnerability. Results also demonstrated that SD is a suitable method to explore management options for a complex water supply and demand system. 相似文献
10.
为实现水资源的高效利用, 对胶东调水工程进行水资源优化调度研究。基于受水区潍坊、青岛、烟台、威海等 4 市的实际配水量与社会经济指标分析, 利用可变模糊集理论, 建立地市外调水量可变模糊优选模型进行优化调配 系数计算, 优化调配 4 市外调水量, 并对优化后的外调水量与区域社会经济发展进行耦合协调度计算。以调水效率 最高为原则, 以 4 市缺水总量最小建立目标函数, 利用 Lingo 软件编程求解, 分别对平水年、枯水年、特枯年进行水资源优化调度。把基于调配水量调度与规划指标调度的结果进行对比分析。结果表明: 2 种调度结果均满足各分水口的最小需水要求; 外调水量的优化调配提高了胶东 4 市水资源与社会经济发展的耦合协调度, 调配水量调度后, 青岛市缺水率明显下降, 其他地市缺水率降幅则较小。 相似文献
11.
A Conditional Value-at-Risk Based Inexact Water Allocation Model 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
A conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) based inexact two-stage stochastic programming (CITSP) model was developed in this study
for supporting water resources allocation problems under uncertainty. A CITSP model was formulated through incorporating a
CVaR constraint into an inexact two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP) framework, and could be used to deal with uncertainties
expressed as not only probability distributions but also discrete intervals. The measure of risks about the second-stage penalty
cost was incorporated into the model, such that the trade-off between system economy and extreme expected loss could be analyzed.
The developed model was applied to a water resources allocation problem involving a reservoir and three competing water users.
The results indicated that the CITSP model performed better than the ITSP model in its capability of reflecting the economic
loss from extreme events. Also, it could generate interval solutions within which the decision alternatives could be selected
from a flexible decision space. Overall, the CITSP model was useful for reflecting the decision maker’s attitude toward risk
aversion and could help seek cost-effective water resources management strategies under complex uncertainties. 相似文献
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基于GIS网络模型的水资源优化配置系统是一个基于数据库、Arc Engine技术、C~#语言等联合开发的决策支持系统,该系统利用GIS的可视化技术以及几何网络模型将水资源优化配置模型概化,绘制相应的水资源配置系统网络图,通过对复杂的水资源、社会经济、生态环境系统进行简化和抽象,以节点和线要素构成网络图反映三大系统内在的逻辑关系,利用灵活的模块化数学模型对多目标的水资源管理进行调配,最终得到优化配置结果,为水资源管理提供技术支持。通过示范区域赣江流域水资源优化配置模型的应用,表明该系统是一个简捷实用、易操作的决策支持系统平台。 相似文献
13.
Water Productivity in a Rigid Irrigation Delivery System 总被引:4,自引:2,他引:2
The rotational irrigation water delivery (warabandi) system practiced in the Indus river basin of Pakistan has continued for 100 years. Irrigation water allocated to the farmers
under the warabandi system is proportional to farm size and is fixed. This rigid allocation system has been partly justified by its contribution
to social equity though this may have been at the cost of economic gains. In order to assess the operation of warabandi’s basic rules, a farmers’ survey was completed from 124 farmers located on five watercourses. A questionnaire was administered
to each farmer and farm management data were gathered. As fresh water resources are under stress and becoming scarce their
efficient use in all applications should be assured in water allocations. It is shown from the survey results that water allocation
based on very limited criteria does not maximize the socio-economic benefits gained from the use of scarce water. Thus, it
is suggested that the existence or non-existence of fresh groundwater resources along with other critical variables should
be taken into consideration when making canal water allocation decisions. Missed water deliveries due to failure of the canal
system appear to be the largest cause of losses. Water charges need to be increased to fund large improvements in canal maintenance
programs. It is pointed out that a framework should be developed as a tool to improve water productivity for Pakistan. This
should include: consideration of the gross area of a tertiary canal, sensitivity of crop growth stage to water shortage, crop
value, bias of allocation towards most water use efficient areas and water use efficient crops, the potential losses from
water deficiency. 相似文献
14.
分析城市用水结构的变化并科学预测未来需水结构,是编制水资源利用规划的前提和基础,对区域水资源的合理配置具有重要意义。在分析乌鲁木齐市社会经济各业用结构变化及其规律的基础上,探讨了其变化的主要原因,并预测了未来用水结构的发展趋势及其对未来水资源供需形势的影响,对协调未来可能利用水资源与社会经济发展的关系、制定合理的水资源配置方案、促进经济社会可持续发展提供参考。 相似文献
15.
水资源脆弱性是评价水资源系统对自然条件变动或人类开发利用影响承载能力的重要指标,其评价对于水资源保护工作非常重要。从自然因素、人为因素、综合因素三方面给出13个指标,利用层次分析法确定各指标的权重,综合相关研究及经验确定各指标的标准值,综合进行区域水资源脆弱性评价。以海河流域为例开展了实例研究,海河流域现状的水资源脆弱度为59.7,属于中度脆弱区;在未来气候变化条件下,经过人工水资源调控措施,海河流域2020年、2030年水资源脆弱度分别为58.64、58.63,证明水资源调控措施将会改善海河流域水资源条件。该方法对流域级水资源系统的脆弱性评价有重要意义。 相似文献
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将马莲河流域系统概化为5个水资源分区,采用指标分析法进行2020和2030年供需水量预测和平衡分析。利用改进的决策树法进行风险分析,将专家咨询概率法引入到决策树敏感性分析中,最终得到2020、2030年的推荐水资源供需分配方案。然后,利用系统分析理论和优化技术建立了流域的大系统、多目标水资源优化配置模型,并采用优化的NSGA-Ⅱ方法进行求解,得到流域2030年推荐水资源配置方案下的最佳分配方案。最后,根据最佳分配方案和预测的流域需水量,进行了流域的水资源平衡分析,通过平衡分析的结果进行流域的综合管理研究。最佳配置方案实现了流域内水资源的最优分配,使宝贵、有限的水资源产生最大的社会、经济及环境效益,为流域经济、能源产业的快速发展提供水资源保障。 相似文献
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天津市水资源多目标优化配置研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
在综合考虑经济、社会、生态、水环境等因素的基础上,建立天津市区域水资源多目标优化模型,利用遗传算法结合理想点法对多目标模型进行求解,在最终对各用水部门给予政策倾斜的前提下,给出不同水资源优化配置方案,以协助决策者制定切实可行的用水方案,实现水资源的可持续发展。 相似文献