Assessment of Sustainability in Water Supply-Demand Considering Uncertainties

Water is a vital resource for life on earth; hence its maintenance is very important. Different regions especially in arid and semi-arid areas are facing population growth and subsequent increase in the domestic, industrial and agricultural activities. Planning of water systems in order to be ready for future development conditions needs further studies on the estimation of the sustainable levels of demands based on the sustainable levels of supplies. In this study a threefold approach for estimating sustainability level of supply and demand in Ahachay river basin in northwestern part of Iran as a case study is taken. In the first method, the internal flows and the origins and final uses of the total resources for each subsystem are estimated and planning for sustainability use index is determined by calculating the available water. Second method introduced a simulation model which is utilized to estimate reliability, resiliency, vulnerability and maximum deficit for a river basin to determine a group sustainability index. In the third method, for evaluating the movement toward sustainability, an index is developed. This index includes parameters that are the difference between supply and demand, percentage of the satisfied demand, productivity of water resources and an indicator for evaluating the reduction of aquifer storage. Finally these methods are compared and a hybrid index combining the indices is developed. An uncertainty analysis is also performed to investigate the random nature of variables in estimating water balance and quantifying the water sustainability. This hybrid index can be used for evaluating the planning scenarios and for maintaining and improving the sustainable state of supply-demand for the region.     

Regional Water Use Structure Optimization Under Multiple Uncertainties Based on Water Resources Vulnerability Analysis

In this paper, a modeling framework by combining system dynamic (SD) model and optimal allocation model was developed to study water resources vulnerability and optimal water use structure, and the framework was applied in the middle reaches of Heihe River basin, northwest of China. The SD model could describe the dynamical change of water resources vulnerability by integrating water resources with socio-economic effect. The sensitivity analysis of SD model was then conducted to design appropriate scenarios for finding out the optimal development pattern, and based on which, an integrated water-saving scenario with lower water resources vulnerability was identified for optimization modeling. Then, an inexact fuzzy-parameter two-stage programming (IFTSP) model was developed and applied to optimize water use structure among industries under uncertainties. This study addresses the water resources vulnerability analysis in considering both water resources system and socio-economic system. Water resources vulnerability analysis was combined with optimization model to make adaptive water resources management plans. And the optimal allocation schemes under lower water resources vulnerability are more advantageous for regional sustainable development.     

Basin Scale Water Resources Systems Modeling Under Cascading Uncertainties

Global change in climate and consequent large impacts on regional hydrologic systems have, in recent years, motivated significant research efforts in water resources modeling under climate change. In an integrated future hydrologic scenario, it is likely that water availability and demands will change significantly due to modifications in hydro-climatic variables such as rainfall, reservoir inflows, temperature, net radiation, wind speed and humidity. An integrated regional water resources management model should capture the likely impacts of climate change on water demands and water availability along with uncertainties associated with climate change impacts and with management goals and objectives under non-stationary conditions. Uncertainties in an integrated regional water resources management model, accumulating from various stages of decision making include climate model and scenario uncertainty in the hydro-climatic impact assessment, uncertainty due to conflicting interests of the water users and uncertainty due to inherent variability of the reservoir inflows. This paper presents an integrated regional water resources management modeling approach considering uncertainties at various stages of decision making by an integration of a hydro-climatic variable projection model, a water demand quantification model, a water quantity management model and a water quality control model. Modeling tools of canonical correlation analysis, stochastic dynamic programming and fuzzy optimization are used in an integrated framework, in the approach presented here. The proposed modeling approach is demonstrated with the case study of the Bhadra Reservoir system in Karnataka, India.     

Risk Assessment for Ecological Planning of Arid Inland River Basins Under Hydrological and Management Uncertainties

The Shiyanghe river basin, an arid inland basin of northwest China, is taken as an example to analyze the risk for achieving the ecological planning objective in arid inland river basins under uncertainty conditions. Hydrology and management uncertainties that affect the accomplishment of ecological planning objective are analyzed quantitatively with the methods of Bayesian theory based Probabilistic model, scenario analysis and interval analysis. Bayesian probabilistic analysis method was used to analyze the hydrological uncertainties in the form of probability and interval distributions in planning period, while the scenario analysis method and interval method were used to analyze the managing uncertainties in the form of interval numbers. Instead of the ecological risk analysis, which for arid inland river basin, of studying the impact of environmental and human factor on ecological system, water resources and environment, we focused on analysing the possible impact of hydrological and management uncertainty factor on the ecological planning, and forecasting the degree of the completion under the uncertainty. Our study provided the probabilities of achieving ecological planning objective and the possible deviation of different scenarios. The more local water resources and higher level of local water resource utilization and management appeared to lead higher probability to achieve the ecological objective. This study can help environment and water resource managers and planner to formulate a rational planning for arid inland river basins under hydrological and management uncertainty.     

浅论洱海地表水资源监测系统规划设计评价

水文设施项目建设成功与否,规划设计和项目决策占主导因素。对洱海地表水资源监测系统现状进行分析,从实现水文测报系统现代化和水资源管理现代化出发,提出了规划设计中应处理好的三个关系,并在综合评价基础上,总结经验教训,以供参考。     

Using Information-Gap Decision Theory for Water Resources Planning Under Severe Uncertainty

Water resource managers are required to develop comprehensive water resources plans based on severely uncertain information of the effects of climate change on local hydrology and future socio-economic changes on localised demand. In England and Wales, current water resources planning methodologies include a headroom estimation process separate from water resource simulation modelling. This process quantifies uncertainty based on only one point of an assumed range of deviations from the expected climate and projected demand 25 years into the future. This paper utilises an integrated method based on Information-Gap decision theory to quantitatively assess the robustness of various supply side and demand side management options over a broad range of plausible futures. Findings show that beyond the uncertainty range explored with the headroom method, a preference reversal can occur, i.e. some management options that underperform at lower uncertainties, outperform at higher levels of uncertainty. This study also shows that when 50 % or more of the population adopts demand side management, efficiency related measures and innovative options such as rainwater collection can perform equally well or better than some supply side options The additional use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis shifts the focus away from reservoir expansion options, that perform best in regards to water availability, to combined strategies that include innovative demand side management actions of rainwater collection and greywater reuse as well efficiency measures and additional regional transfers. This paper illustrates how an Information-Gap based approach can offer a comprehensive picture of potential supply/demand futures and a rich variety of information to support adaptive management of water systems under severe uncertainty.     

Sustainability Analysis for Yellow River Water Resources Using the System Dynamics Approach

The water resource issue is one of the most significant problemsthat the Yellow River basin will face this century, and one which has received much attention by public and government for several years. Water authorities will face great challenges in meeting the in-stream flow requirements and providing more water for growing populations, industry and agriculture. In order toevaluate the sustainability of the water resource system inthe study area, an object-oriented system dynamics approachhas been used to develop a model for the water resourcessystem in the Yellow River basin, which is referred to asthe Water Resources System Dynamics (WRSD) model. It hasbeen developed for simulating a water resource system andcapturing the dynamic character of the main elements affectingwater demand and supply in the study area. For thebusiness-as-usual (BaU) scenario, the water demands in theYellow River basin are estimated 50.9, 56.5, and 59.5billion m³ for 2010, 2020, and 2030. The existing andpotential water supplies from surface water, aquifers andtreated waste-water are estimated, and potential waterdemands for domestic, industrial and agricultural uses areprojected. Various water supply and demand scenarios havethen been explored by changing variables and parameters,and the sustainability index of the water supply system isestimated for different sub-regions over various periods.     

Resilience Assessment of Water Resources System

The resilience perspective, which emphasizes the integrated, systemic concept of human and nature interactions, is increasingly used as an approach for understanding the dynamic of social-ecological system. As the water resources system (WRS) is a social-ecological system, resilience thinking such as Holling??s adaptive cycle has been adopted as a fundamental unit for understanding the water resources system dynamics in this paper. In the adaptive cycle of WRS, the likelihood shift among different phases largely depends on resilience value; and a quantitative method for estimating the resilience of WRS is proposed. The method is related to the degree of change and characteristics of the WRS, and has been applied to identify the phase of WRS in every city in Zhejiang province, China. The results of resilience assessment have also been discussed in terms of adaptive cycle.     

基于水贫乏指数的区域水安全评价研究

为了综合定量评价区域水安全状况,采用国际上通用的水贫乏指数概念及内涵,构建基于资源、途径、利用、能力和环境五方面的指标体系,通过指标阈值确定及熵权分析,系统评价了河南省18个地市未来的水安全形势,结果表明:河南省水安全状况不容乐观,水资源本底状况、工程条件和利用能力是影响区域水资源安全的三大主因。针对各地市分项指标评价结果,提出了破解当地水安全问题的策略及建议。     

An Extension of the Sustainability Index Definition in Water Resources Planning and Management

The sustainability index (SI) is a relatively new concept for measuring the performance of water resource systems over long time periods. Its definition is aimed at providing an indication of the integral behaviour of the system with regards to possible undesired consequences if misbalance of available and required waters occurs. SI is initially defined as a product and later reformulated as a geometric mean of performance indicators: reliability, resilience and vulnerability. As an extension of a recently published methodology to compute and use SI, in this paper we propose introducing two more indicators of system performance: (1) reliability of annual firm (safe) water as a system yield and (2) deviation of reservoir levels from corresponding rule curves. The last indicator is of particular importance if there are multi-purpose reservoirs in the system because reservoirs are the most important and sensitive regulators of the water regime within the system. We also propose a framework for assessing system performance in a systematic manner to compute SI at various locations within the system if different operating strategies are applied and, finally, how to evaluate strategies according to the resulting SI by using multi-criteria methods. A case study example from Serbia is used to illustrate the results of measuring sustainability under alternative operating scenarios for a system with three reservoirs and two diversion structures.     

城市水系统环境可持续性评价框架

把社会水循环定义为水在人类社会经济系统的运动过程.立足社会水循环与自然水循环的匹配性,提出了一个社会水循环的概念模型.依据社会水循环概念模型探讨了城市水系统环境可持续性的评价目的、评价内容框架和评价准则框架,并提出了一组测评城市水系统环境可持续性的指标体系.该指标体系综合考虑了城市给水、用水和污水排放等系统,有效体现了城市水系统各要素的内在联系及其基本特征.     

Modeling of Water Resources Allocation and Water Quality Management for Supporting Regional Sustainability under Uncertainty in an Arid Region

In this study, a scenario-based interval-stochastic fraticle optimization with Laplace criterion (SISFL) method is developed for sustainable water resources allocation and water quality management (WAQM) under multiple uncertainties. SISFL can tackle uncertainties presented as interval parameters and probability distributions; meanwhile, it can also quantify artificial fuzziness such as risk-averse attitude in a decision-making issue. Besides, it can reflect random scenario occurrence under the supposition of no data available. The developed method is applied to a real case of water resources allocation and water quality management in the Kaidu-kongque River Basin, where encounter serve water deficit and water quality degradation simultaneously in Northwest China. Results of water allocation pattern, pollution mitigation scheme, and system benefit under various scenarios are analyzed. The tradeoff between economic activity and water-environment protection with interval necessity levels and Laplace criterions can support policymakers generating an effective and robust manner associated with risk control for WAQM under multiple uncertainties. These discoveries avail local policymakers gain insight into the capacity planning of water-environment to satisfy the basin’s integrity of socio-economic development and eco-environmental sustainability.     

开展水资源规划和水权制度建设做好流域水资源配置工作

自1998年嫩江、松花江大水以来,松辽委认真学习和贯彻落实部党组可持续发展治水新思路,根据流域水资源特点,分析水资源开发利用中存在的矛盾,研究解决矛盾的对策措施,把新时期水资源优化配置作为主要工作来抓.在水资源管理中与各省(自治区)水利厅密切协作,充分利用行业内外智力资源,认真组织水资源规划和专题研究,积极开展流域初始水权分配工作,探索流域水资源可持续利用的有效途径.     

GIS技术支持下的区域水资源管理

地理信息系统（GIS）就其强大的空间数据处理能力，为区域水资源管理提供了一个新颖、高效的工具。通过赵巷镇水资源管理信息系统的应用实例，阐明了基于GIS的区域水资源管理信息系统的构建过程，分析了两者结合应用的可行性和优越性，并讨论了这种方法在区域水资源系统模拟、辅助决策支持等方面的广泛应用前景。     

区域水资源可持续利用评价熵权理想物元模型

区域水资源可持续利用评价涉及多个指标,评价指标权重直接影响着评价结果的优劣,如何合理确定各评价指标的权重是系统综合评价的关键.针对传统水资源可持续利用评价中单纯由主观判断确定指标权重方法的不足,利用主观判断与客观信息相结合的熵权法来确定指标的权重系数,在模糊物元分析的基础上,建立了基于熵权的区域水资源可持续利用评价模型.理论分析和实例研究结果表明:基于熵权的理想物元分析法能反映评价方案间的细微差别,对评价方案的优劣作出更准确的评价,评价结果合理可靠.     

Environmentally-Sensitive Water Resources Planning

In this paper, the traditional problem of matching supplies to competing demands, referred to as water resources planning (WRP), is re-visited. With the pressure of continuing growth in the world's population, efficient development and management of available water resources are of greater importance than ever before. It is equally important in today's world that the environmental implications of any activity should be minimised. The aim of this research is to develop a methodology for including environmental considerations in the WRP process. This is achieved by weighting the costs of the various water resource options (both constructional and operating) to reflect their environmental impacts, prior to their inclusion in an economic planning model. The effect of such a weighting procedure is to encourage the selection of environmentally-friendly schemes at the expense of environmentally-damaging ones. The objective function of the combined methodology is to minimise the total environmentally-adjusted costs, discounted to a base year. A comprehensive planning tool named ENRES has been developed to carry out this task. The model allows the environmental impact assessment of all development options, either source components or transfer structures, to be undertaken prior to running the allocation procedure which is carried out by means of an optimisation technique. With the help of all the facilities provided, the model can be used in a planning exercise both with and without environmental considerations. In this way, it is possible to quantify the cost of environmental impacts in the planning process.     

基于区域发展规划的嵩明县水资源承载力

在借鉴单位GDP综合耗水量评判法的水资源承载力计算模型的基础上,构建了考虑未消耗水资源二次利用的水资源承载力计算模型。对嵩明县水资源承载力进行了研究,结果表明:现状年(2012年)按可供水量,可承载经济规模和人口规模仍存在较大的增长空间;2020年可供新水量(不包含重复利用水量)能够支撑规划的经济发展规模,而2025年和2030年只有将部分未消耗水资源进行二次利用才能支撑规划的经济发展规模;2020年、2025年和2030年必须将部分未消耗水资源进行二次利用才能支撑规划人均GDP条件下的人口发展规模。     

基于AHP-ACO模型的区域水资源承载力评价

正确评价区域水资源承载力,对合理开发利用水资源以及促进区域社会经济的可持续发展具有重要意义。以新疆和田地区为例,利用层次分析法的层次框架思维模式与蚁群算法的自适应性及人为干扰少等特点,构建了层次分析-蚁群算法。采用层次分析法获得评价指标权重值,再利用蚁群算法确定研究区不同年份的优属度。结果表明:研究区历年水资源承载力等级均为Ⅱ级;其中,2012年的水资源承载力值最高,2011年的水资源承载力值最低,评价结果符合研究区实际情况。