PROMETHEE with Precedence Order in the Criteria (PPOC) as a New Group Decision Making Aid: An Application in Urban Water Supply Management

In this paper, a new group Multi-Criteria-Decision-Making (MCDM) method is introduced by combining two ??Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE)?? and ??Multi-attribute decision making with dominance in the criteria?? methods. PROMETHEE family of outranking methods is among the recently developed MCDM methods which have received lots of attention in the recent years because of its capacity in ranking finite set of alternative actions based on conflicting criteria. The second method helps the decision makers to consider ambiguity and imprecision of relative importance of each objective (criterion) without allocating importance weights to them. The proposed method of PROMETHEE with Precedence Order in the Criteria (PPOC) not only can address capabilities of PROMETHEE method just with determination of precedence order of criteria, but also can make it possible to have a group decision making environment with conflicting objectives. Operational management of an urban water supply system is a good example of a set of decision making problems with several objectives and Decision Makers (DMs). In this paper, PPOC method has been applied to the case study of Melbourne water supply system, previously analyzed in the literature, to assess a number of operation rules with respect to eight criteria evaluated under single or group decision-making situations. The satisfaction degree of each DM and the overall group ranking results have also been provided in the paper. The proposed method is applicable for different decision making problems in urban water supply management.     

Spatio-Temporal Multi-Criteria Optimization of Reservoir Water Quality Monitoring Network Using Value of Information and Transinformation Entropy

Identifying optimal Water Quality Monitoring Stations (WQMS) with high values of information on the entire reservoir status, instead of all potential WQMS would significantly reduce the monitoring network expenditure while providing adequate spatial coverage. This study presented a new methodology for spatio-temporal multi-criteria optimization of reservoir WQMS based on Value of Information (VOI), Transinformation Entropy (TE), Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II), Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE), and IRanian Water Quality Index (IRWQI). Although, all mentioned methods and concepts are well-known and have been used in water resources management, but their integration into a specific application for spatio-temporal multi-criteria optimization of reservoir WQMS is definitely an innovation and a contribution to improvement of WQMS design. More specifically, maximizing VOI as a decision-makers’ design criteria for optimization of WQMS, and considering spatial and temporal variations of water quality at different reservoir depths are new innovations in this research. The multi-objective optimization model was based on three objectives: 1) minimizing costs; 2) maximizing VOI; and 3) minimizing TE (redundant information). Considering these objectives, the NSGA-II multi-objective optimization method was used to find Pareto-optimal solutions. The most preferable solution was then determined using PROMETHEE multi-criteria decision making method. The proposed methodology was applied to Karkheh Reservoir with more than 5 billion cubic meter capacity and 60 km length that is one of the largest reservoirs in Southwestern Iran, however, the proposed approach has the ability to be generalized for any generic reservoir. Considering equal weights for criteria, PROMETHEE method resulted in 6 optimized WQMS out of 60 potential ones and a period of 25 days for optimal sampling interval. The optimized monitoring stations were mainly located at deep parts where most water quality variations are expected to occur. To show sensitivity of the model to different weights, 4 scenarios with various relative weights were evaluated in the PROMETHEE method. Results indicated that by increasing the weight of the second criterion (maximizing VOI), the number of optimized WQMS increased and the sampling interval decreased.     

干支流汇合口平面二维水沙数学模型研究

天然河流中存在着大量的干支流交汇的河段,一般交汇河段都具有复杂的水流条件和地形条件,对于交汇处复杂边界条件下所引起的水流运动及河床变形研究造成一定的困难。以长江和沱江汇合口为例,针对汇合口河段复杂的地形和河势,建立了贴体正交曲线坐标下的平面二维水沙数学模型,克服了边界复杂及计算域尺寸悬殊所引起的困难,采用欠松弛技术求解...     

日本鹤见川流域综合治水历程的启示

针对快速城镇化进程中洪涝风险加剧的难题,介绍了日本鹤见川流域在城镇化面积从10％上升至85％的进程中,流域水文环境及洪水特性等方面的变化,以及该流域综合治水对策从河道整治扩展为流域面上的蓄滞排渗措施、土地利用规划以及洪水预警预报等方面的进展.结合我国目前高速发展的态势,从鹤见川流域综合治水的循序渐进、计划治水的成本效益以及依法治水的保障作用等方面,分析了鹤见川流域综合治水经验给我们的启示.     

典型河段悬移质泥沙模拟方法研究

河流上修建的水利工程改变了原有河道水流泥沙的运动形式,而泥沙含量众多的悬移质泥沙往往影响着工程或河道的淤积状况,只有深入研究悬移质泥沙的运动形式,运用不同方法模拟河流悬移质泥沙对河道、水库等水利工程的影响,重现河流泥沙运动规律,揭示出悬移质泥沙对工程的影响机理,探求出减少泥沙侵害的技术途径。本文以模型试验设计的最新成果,运用模型试验方法和数学模型计算方法,并结合理论分析和模型试验,研究了天然河道典型河段悬移质泥沙冲淤问题,为解决工程泥沙问题探求一条可靠的途径。     

Multi-Objective Hydraulic Optimization of Diversion Dam’s Cut-Off

The seepage flow beneath a hydraulic structure is formed by the hydraulic head difference between the upstream and downstream sides. Cut-off walls are often applied, as an expedience, to reduce the seepage flow through the foundation of diversion dams and to enhance the efficiency of these dams. In this research, perhaps for the first time, a novel methodology is propounded to assess the optimum characteristics of cut-off walls in diversion dams in order to ameliorate hydraulic interactions between the diversion dam foundation and the cut-off walls behavior, also their construction cost is minimized. The results are used to train and validate the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) simulation model. Then MLP, as a meta-model for simulation of the hydraulic behavior of cut-off walls, is coupled with a robust multi-objective optimization algorithm, Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-ΙΙ (NSGA-ΙΙ), to create a trade-off between the intended goals. Finally, Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) decision making model and Nash-Harsanyi bargaining model are utilized to find the compromise design optimal solution on the trade-off curve. Results demonstrate that the best agreed-upon design optimal solution using PROMETHEE and Nash-Harsanyi bargaining models can be considered as (10, 3.84, 32) meters and (2.47, 10, 29.22) meters for optimum depth of the upstream and downstream cut-off walls and the optimum distance between them, respectively.     

基于熵权-逼近理想解排序法的河长制实施效果评价

为科学量化评价河长制实施效果,提升河湖管理效能,利用2012—2021年相关数据建立了包括1个目标层、6个准则层、17个评价指标的评价体系,利用熵权法确定评价指标权重,采用逼近理想解排序法定量评价安庆市河长制实施效果,运用障碍度模型识别影响河长制实施效果的关键指标,2012—2021年安庆市河长制实施效果综合评价分值从0.21上升至0.78。结果表明河长制管理水平呈不断提高趋势,水域岸线管控及执法监管工作正面效果逐年凸显,水环境治理与水污染防治还需有针对性地加强。评价方法适用于安庆市河长制绩效考核研究,可为其他区域河长制考核评价提供借鉴。     

流域水资源水量水质集成管理模型研究进展

将流域水资源水量水质集成管理模型分为优化模型、模拟模型、优化和模拟相结合模型以及决策支持系统四大类,按此分类总结了目前国内外研究的相关进展,并针对模型中出现的水量水质耦合项,分析了直接求解法、大系统分解协调技术、逐步求解法和情景优选法等水量水质变量的解耦原理和技术,并展望了流域水资源水量水质集成管理模型在水资源优化配置、生态环境需水配置和水资源冲突协调领域中的应用前景。     

Water Quality Assessment Based on Combined Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Method with Index Method

This work presents combined approach to water quality assessment based on both Water Quality Indices (WQI) and Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods. Using weights from the official WQI calculation algorithm, the model for MCDM was formed and presented on the case of the Danube River water quality in Serbia. By applying PROMETHEE method, locations of potential environmental risk were determined and ranked according to the quality of water. Using its visual modeling option GAIA, the most dominant variables that affect the quality of water at certain locations were identified as polluting parameters (suspended matter, BOD-5, total N, NH4-N and PO4-P). Concentrations of identified pollutants were compared with limits of both EU and national recommendations so the actual water quality of the river was determined. The results showed that although WQI analysis indicated good and very good water quality, extension with MCDM methods revealed that there is a significant excess in values of PO4-P and E.coli at almost every location on the course of the river, as well as in values of total N and NH4-N. Proposed combined approach could serve to engineers and decision makers involved in water quality management in creating more detailed reports on water quality while facilitating the process of decision-making in the choice of selection of particular locations with critical water quality, where appropriate measures for remediation of pollution should be taken.     

Multi-criteria Decision Analysis: A Strategic Planning Tool for Water Loss Management

Water utilities particularly in the developing countries continue to operate with considerable inefficiencies in terms of water and revenue losses. With increasing water demand and scarcity, utilities require effective strategies for optimum use of available water resources. Diverse water loss reduction options exist. Deciding on which option to choose amidst conflicting multiple criteria and different interests of stakeholders is a challenging task. In this paper, an integrated multi-criteria decision-aiding framework for strategic planning of water loss management is presented. The PROMETHEE II method was applied within the framework in prioritizing water loss reduction options for Kampala city. A strategic plan that combines selective mains and service lines replacement and pressure management as priorities is the best compromise based on preferences of the decision makers and seven evaluation criteria characterized by financial-economic, environmental, public health, technical and social impacts. The results show that the most preferred options are those that enhance water supply reliability, public health and water conservation measures. This study demonstrates how decision theory coupled with operational research techniques could be applied in practice to solve complex water management and planning problems.     

淮河流域水系盒维数与连通度相关性研究

在自然演变和人工干预双重影响下,河湖水系的发育程度和连通效果在不断变化,进而影响到流域水资源的合理开发利用。本文以淮河流域作为研究对象,从数字高程模型中提取了全流域水系结构图,并根据其他资料对结果进行修正;基于当地人工水系建设背景,运用分形理论计算了全流域13个水资源三级分区有、无人工水系情况下的水系分形盒维数;基于河道闸坝工程建设背景,运用图论方法计算了全流域13个水资源分区有、无闸坝工程情况下的水系连通度;最后,采用统计学方法研究了淮河水系盒维数指标与水系连通度指标之间的联系。结果显示,剔除人工水系后的各分区水系盒维数有不同程度的下降,且下降程度与区域水系个数、面积一定程度上成正比例关系;考虑有无人工水系、闸坝工程影响的各分区水系连通度,有的增大,有的减小;水系盒维数与连通度间大体上呈现正相关的趋势关系。研究成果可为有关部门开展淮河流域水系建设工作提供理论支撑,为摸清自然规律和人类活动对水系形态结构、发育情况和连通性的影响提供技术支持。     

额尔齐斯河水库群多尺度耦合的生态调度研究

针对我国额尔齐斯河流域生态问题,给出了水库群生态调度的定义。以保障河流健康、河谷生态系统安全为目标,构建了宏观、中观、微观相互嵌套多尺度耦合的水库群生态调度体系;结合生态调度的原则和依据,建立了水库群多尺度耦合的生态调度多目标模型,以及水库群中长期、短期和实时生态调度模型;提出了多时间尺度耦合的水库生态调度技术、多目标非线性水库调度模型求解技术和生态系统漓漫灌溉技术;定义了漓漫灌溉,构建了生态漓漫灌溉系统。应用上述体系、模型和方法,计算结果表明,中长期调度方案能满足额尔齐斯河流域水资源综合利用各部门的供水量及保证率要求,尤其是满足河谷林草生态供水的破坏深度要求和最大连续缺水年数的限制;水库群实时生态调度模型的计算结果表明:模型计算的河谷林草、湿地的水库人工生态洪水过程与实测值比较接近,相对误差为0.04%,说明模型结果合理。实时监测了河谷林草的漓漫灌溉效果,包括范围、面积、水深等,监测结果表明:水库人工生态洪水过程基本满足河谷林草漓漫灌溉面积、水深等生态需水要求。研究成果对额尔齐斯河维持河流健康、保障生态安全、解决国际河流的水资源综合利用问题、发展水库群生态调度的理论和方法,具有重要的理论意义与应用价值,可供我国北方河流生态调度借鉴。     

A Comparative Evaluation of Short-Term Streamflow Forecasting Using Time Series Analysis and Rainfall-Runoff Models in eWater Source

Over the past few decades, many numerical streamflow prediction techniques using observed time series (TS) have been developed and widely used in water resources planning and management. Recent advances in quantitative rainfall forecasting by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have made it possible to produce improved streamflow forecasts using continuous rainfall-runoff (RR) models. In the absence of a suitable integrated system of NWP, RR and river system models, river operators in Australia mostly use spreadsheet-based tools to forecast streamflow using gauged records. The eWater Cooperative Research Centre of Australia has recently developed a new generation software package called eWater Source, which allows a seamless integration of continuous RR and river system models for operational and planning purposes. This paper presents the outcomes of a study that was carried out using Source for a comparative evaluation of streamflow forecasting by several well-known TS based linear techniques and RR models in two selected sub-basins in the upper Murray river system of the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia. The results were compared with the actual forecasts made by the Murray River operators and the observed data. The results show that while streamflow forecasts by the river operators were reasonably accurate up to day 3 and traditional TS based approaches were reasonably accurate up to 2?days. Well calibrated RR models can provide better forecasts for longer periods when using high quality quantitative precipitation forecasts. The river operators tended to underestimate large magnitude flows.     

基于数字图像处理的平原城镇河网分形特征研究

城镇河网分形特征反映了城镇水系分布密集度、城镇河网水面率与水系连通程度,对预测城镇水文趋势、旱涝抵御能力、水系及地貌演变等具有指导意义。本文以苏州吴江桃源镇河网为研究对象,基于数字图像处理技术,采用盒计数法和Sandbox法对桃源镇河网的分形特征进行定量分析。结果表明:盒计数法和Sandbox法均较好地揭示了该地区河网分形特性,分维值分别为1.4085和1.7442。盒计数法12个标度下的栅格边长和非空盒数关系曲线呈外凸状,揭示了该地区分形规律随标度减小而减弱的特征;以5个随机点和形心为控制点,采用Sandbox法对河网骨架分形进行计算,揭示了不同点控制区域分形维数的差异性。Sandbox法分维较盒计数法精确,原因为盒计数法受到最小标度、分形体不规则性和边界效应的影响,因此可采用盒计数法的定性判别与Sandbox法的定量计算对城镇河网分维综合评价。桃源镇河网分形特征说明了该区域地貌平缓且土地被河网分割严重,其河网分维受制于河道离散、土地破碎与城镇化发展的矛盾。     

河道型水库动库容分析方法

提出附加调蓄量的概念,采用附加滩地断面积的方法模拟附加调蓄量,使河道水流系统的蓄量等价于水库的实际蓄量.通过反分析方法确定区间入流过程,应用具有附加滩地的河道水流系统模拟水库调洪系统.通过四点线性隐格式求解河道水流方程,建立水库动库容的分析方法,并成功地应用于水口水库的洪水演进模拟,得到了静库容方法与动库容方法推算入库流量的误差.计算结果表明,本文方法是可行的,可以应用于工程实际.     

Assessment of Water Resources and Salinity Intrusion in the Mekong Delta

Abstract

A methodology is presented for the assessment of water resources and salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta in Vietnam. The flow and water salinity at different locations in the river network have been dynamically assessed by the developed three-step approach in which the hydrodynamic, advection-dispersion models, harmonic analysis, and regression techniques have been employed in the development of the relationships between the boundary conditions (upstream inflows and tides at river mouths) and the harmonic constituents of flow and water salinity. These relationships were subsequently used to determine the parameter values of harmonic constituents of flow and water salinity at specific locations under various hydrologic conditions and water allocation alternatives as needed for water management purpose. With known harmonic parameters, the flow and water salinity at the locations can be predicted by a harmonic analysis method and the river water available for agricultural use can then be determined. The advantage of this methodology is that the river water can be dynamically assessed without performing the hydrodynamic and advection-dispersion simulations in the water resources management process. Due to the limitation of data availability, a preliminary assessment of groundwater resources has been included. The results indicate that the use of groundwater as supplemental resources for agricultural production is possible     

黄河下游淤筑相对地下河的可行性技术

本文简介了“结合引黄供水沉沙淤筑相对地下河的研究”中有关引水、沉沙、挖淤、输沙、淤筑和施工组织管理等方面的成套可行技术，包括输、沉沙渠（池）设计计算方法，沉挖方式和方法，淤筑施工机械的选型配套，泥沙输送技术以及淤筑技术等。各项技术紧缩密配合，针对性强，便于实施，基本可以满足在不打乱原有引黄灌排体系条件下，进行淤筑相对地下河规划，设计和施工的需要。     

The relationship between geomorphic river adjustment and management actions over the last 50 years in the Upper Hunter Catchment,NSW, Australia

The installation of 517 river works in the upper Hunter catchment, New South Wales over the last 50 years is linked to geomorphic river adjustment and flood history at catchment and reach scales. Nineteen types of works are classified into three categories consisting of engineering, heavy machinery and vegetation works. Since 1952, a transition in techniques has been detected from engineering‐based approaches, to river training/maintenance, to more ecosystem‐based approaches. From the 1950s to the mid‐1980s extensive river engineering was undertaken. Projects were concentrated along laterally unconfined rivers and were generally implemented after major phases of geomorphic river adjustment. Neither the type of river nor the type of river adjustment guided the implementation of differing management techniques or their distribution in the catchment. A blanket approach was adopted, applying the same types of works across all types of river. Emphasis was placed upon concerns for bank instability rather than bed instability. Hence in many cases, river works addressed the symptoms (i.e. bank erosion) rather than the underlying causes of river change (i.e. bed incision). Since the mid 1980s, techniques have evolved towards vegetation‐based procedures. The development of more effective river rehabilitation programmes requires that greater consideration is given to proactive strategies which build upon an understanding of geomorphic river adjustments at the catchment scale. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

整数规划法在流域规划项目最优开发次序中的应用

介绍了整数规划的特点和建模方法,并把0—1规划应用于流域规划项目最优开发次序中。以左江流域宁明县灌溉规划为例,论述了整数规划法如何根据项目开发的实际情况和要求进行数学建模,采用过渡隐枚举法进行最优解的计算。