Hydrological Drought Assessment in Northwestern Iran Based on Streamflow Drought Index (SDI)

Drought is a natural and worldwide phenomenon that occurs when water availability is significantly below normal levels during a significant period of time and cannot meet demand. This work focused on the hydrologic drought defined by the streamflow drought index (SDI) for overlapping periods of 3, 6, 9 and 12 months at 14 hydrometric stations in the northwest of Iran over the period 1975–2009. It was found that some of the streamflow volume series did not follow the normal distribution. The ability of the log-normal, exponential and uniform probability distributions was examined in order to choose the most suitable distribution, and the log-normal distribution was used to fit the long-term streamflow data. The results of the hydrological drought analysis based on the SDI showed that almost all the stations suffered from extreme droughts during the study period. Additionally, extreme droughts occurred most frequently in the last 12 years from 1997–1998 to 2008–2009.     

A New Non-stationary Hydrological Drought Index Encompassing Climate Indices and Modified Reservoir Index as Covariates

Due to accelerating climate variability and intensified anthropogenic activities, the hypothesis of stationarity of data series is no longer applicable, questioning the reliability of the traditional drought index. Thus, it is critical to develop a non-stationary hydrological drought index that takes into account the joint impacts of climate and anthropogenic changes in a drought assessment framework. In this study, using the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS), a new Non-stationary Standardized Runoff Index (NSRI) was developed combining climate indices (CI) and modified reservoir index (MRI) as explanatory variables. This novel index was applied to the hydrological drought assessment of the Hanjiang River basin (HRB) in China, and its reliability was assessed by comparing with the traditional Standardized Runoff Index (SRI). Results indicated that the optimal non-stationary model with CI and MRI as covariates performed better than did other models. Furthermore, NSRI was more robust in identifying extreme drought events and was more effective in the study region than the conventional SRI. In addition, based on the method of Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST), it was found that there were two change points in 1981 and 2003 for the NSRI series at four hydrological stations in the HRB, which indicated that hydrological drought in the basin had a prominent non-stationary behavior. Our findings may provide significant information for regional drought assessment and water resources management from a changing environment perspective.

     

A Non-Stationary Reconnaissance Drought Index (NRDI) for Drought Monitoring in a Changing Climate

Traditionally, drought indices are calculated under stationary condition, the assumption that is not true in a changing environment. Under non-stationary conditions, it is assumed the probability distribution parameters vary linearly/non-linearly with time or other covariates. In this study, using the GAMLSS algorithm, a time-varying location parameter of lognormal distribution fitted to the initial values (α₀) of the traditional Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) was developed to establish a new index called the Non-Stationary RDI (NRDI), simplifying drought monitoring under non-stationarity. The fifteen meteorological stations having the longest records (1951–2014) in Iran were chose to evaluate the NRDI performances for drought monitoring. Trend analysis of the α₀ series at multiple time windows was tested by using the Mann-Kendall statistics. Although all stations detected decreasing trend in the α₀ series, eight of them were significant at the 5% probability level. The results showed that the time-dependent relationship is adequate to model the location parameter at the stations with the significant temporal trend. There were remarkable differences between the NRDI and the RDI, especially for the time windows larger than 6 months, implying monitoring droughts using the NRDI under non-stationarity. The study suggests using the NRDI where the significant time trend appears in the initial values of RDI due to changing climate.     

Regional Drought Assessment Based on the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI)

Regional drought assessment is conventionally based on drought indices for the identification of drought intensity, duration and areal extent. In this study, a new index, the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) is proposed together with the well known Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the method of deciles. The new index exhibits significant advantages over the other indices by including apart from precipitation, an additional meteorological parameter, the potential evapotranspiration. The drought assessment is achieved using the above indices in two river basins, namely Mornos and Nestos basins in Greece. It is concluded that although the RDI generally responds in a similar fashion to the SPI (and to a lesser extent to the deciles), it is more sensitive and suitable in cases of a changing environment.     

基于水文模型的滦河流域综合干旱指数研究

土壤墒情是判定流域干旱的一个重要指标,其测定具有片面性且无法预测,而水文模型可有效模拟整个流域的土壤含水量。以滦河滦县水文站以上流域作为研究区域,基于垂向混合产流模型模拟流域土壤含水量,构建土壤相对湿润度干旱指数,并运用主成分分析法将土壤相对湿润度、降水距平百分数以及相对湿润度3种干旱指数进行综合,构建综合干旱指数,定量评估研究流域不同时间尺度(年、月、季尺度)发生干旱的频率。结果表明,综合干旱指数可用于滦河流域的干旱评估,与已发生的干旱事件具有较好的吻合度;1960—1989年滦河流域发生连续3月特旱的频率最大、为18.23%,发生连续5月中旱的频率最高、为17.26%,发生连续7月轻旱的情况较多、为9.24%;滦河流域冬季发生干旱的频率最高、为37.8%,夏季发生干旱频率较低、为22.6%,冬季发生重旱和中旱的频率较高、分别为6.0%和11.3%,春季发生特旱的频率最大、为3.5%,夏季出现轻旱的频次最高、为18.1%,研究成果对滦河地区干旱预测预警具有重要的参考价值。     

基于PDSI指数的三江源干旱气候特征分析

根据三江源地区12个气象站点1971—2004年的气象资料,利用修正的Palmer旱度模式,计算分析了三江源地区PDSI指数的时空变化特征,并采用Morlet小波变换系数分析了PDSI指数的变化周期。结果表明:三江源地区有变干趋势,但变化趋势不显著,其中黄河源显著变干对三江源变干影响较大;三江源地区干旱发生年份与厄尔尼诺现象出现的年份基本相近;三江源地区西北较干旱、东南较湿润;经小波分析,三江源PDSI指数大约有20 a的第一主变化周期,与太阳双黑子活动周期相近,在20 a周期内还包括11～12 a和6 a的小周期;三江源干旱化与气候变暖、降水减少密切相关,尤其是夏、秋两季。     

Evaluation of Sub-Selection Methods for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Low-Flow and Hydrological Drought Conditions

A challenge for climate impact studies is the identification of a sub-set of climate model projections from the many typically available. Sub-selection has potential benefits, including making large datasets more meaningful and uncovering underlying relationships. We examine the ability of seven sub-selection methods to capture low flow and drought characteristics simulated from a large ensemble of climate models for two catchments. Methods include Multi-Cluster Feature Selection (MCFS), Unsupervised Discriminative Features Selection (UDFS), Diversity-Induced Self-Representation (DISR), Laplacian score (LScore), Structure Preserving Unsupervised Feature Selection (SPUFS), Non-convex Regularized Self-Representation (NRSR) and Katsavounidis–Kuo–Zhang (KKZ). We find that sub-selection methods perform differently in capturing varying aspects of the parent ensemble, i.e. median, lower or upper bounds. They also vary in their effectiveness by catchment, flow metric and season, making it very difficult to identify a best sub-selection method for widespread application. Rather, researchers need to carefully judge sub-selection performance based on the aims of their study, the needs of adaptation decision making and flow metrics of interest, on a catchment by catchment basis.

     

Calibration of a Distributed Hydrological Model (VIC-3L) Based on Global Water Resources Reanalysis Datasets

The lack of observed streamflow datasets for calibration of rainfall-runoff models imposes substantial problems for their applicability, especially in poorly gauged or ungauged river basins. Developing satellite technologies and increasing computational powers over the past decades, have provided an environment for researchers to simulate several water balance components globally using these datasets and assimilation techniques. Due to importance of accurate hydrologic modeling, this study aims to investigate the applicability of global water resources reanalysis (GWRR) datasets including surface soil moisture (SSM), evapotranspiration (ET), and surface runoff (SR) components for calibration of the macro-scale hydrological model (VIC-3L) over the SefidRood basin (SRB) in Iran at different calibration scenarios. Results show that in the case of using SSM datasets, the model’s performance in the simulation of streamflow hydrograph, with the NSE value higher than 0.65, is better than using other datasets. Among different datasets, the SSM based on LISFLOOD and HBV are the best ones for calibration of VIC-3L model over SRB. In contrast, using ET datasets aren’t so reliable for hydrological calibration in the study area. Furthermore, in the cases of using SSM and surface runoff datasets, the model tends to overestimation of low-flows, while, ET datasets are more reliable for simulation of such these flows. Also, findings displayed that the combination of ET and SSM datasets for hydrological calibration performed better than using only one dataset. In conclusion, this research gives useful and applied insights in the applicability of GWRR data sources for hydrological modeling and water resources studies, especially in data limited regions.

     

Development of a Non-stationary Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (NSPEI) for Drought Monitoring in a Changing Climate

In a changing climate, drought indices as well as drought definitions need to be revisited because some statistical properties, such as the long-term mean, of climate series may change over time. This study aims to develop a Non-stationary Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (NSPEI) for reliable and robust quantification of drought characteristics in a changing climate. The proposed indicator is based on a non-stationary log-logistic probability distribution, assuming the location parameter of the distribution is a multivariable function of time and climate indices, as covariates. The optimal non-stationary model was obtained using a forward selection method in the framework of the Generalized Additive Models in Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS) algorithm. The Non-stationary and Stationary forms of SPEI (i.e., NSPEI and SSPEI) were calculated using the monthly precipitation and temperature data of 32 weather stations in Iran for the common period of 1964–2014. The results showed that almost at all the stations studied, the non-stationary log-logistic distributions outperformed the stationary ones. The AICs of the non-stationary models for 97% of the stations were lower than those of the stationary models. The non-stationary models at 90% of the stations were statistically significant at the 5% significance level. While SSPEI identified the long-term and continuous drought and wet events, NSPEI revealed the short-term and frequent drought/wet periods at almost all the stations of interest. Finally, it was revealed that NSPEI, compared to SSPEI, was a more reliable and robust indicator of drought duration and drought termination in vegetation cover during the severest drought period (the 2008 drought). Therefore, it was suggested as a suitable drought index to quantify drought impacts on vegetation cover in Iran.

     

Recent Climate Trends and Drought Behavioral Assessment Based on Precipitation and Temperature Data Series in the Songhua River Basin of China

Precise analysis of spatiotemporal trends of temperature, precipitation and meteorological droughts plays a key role in the sustainable management of water resources in the given region. This study first aims to detect the long-term climate (monthly/seasonally and annually) trends from the historical temperature and precipitation data series by applying Spearmen’s Rho and Mann-Kendall test at 5 % significant level. The measurements of both climate variables for a total period of 49 years (1965–2013) were collected from the 11 different meteorological stations located in the Songhua River basin of China. Secondly, the two well-known meteorological drought indices including the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) were applied on normalize data to detect the drought hazards at 3, 6, 9 and 12 month time scale in the study area. The analysis of monthly precipitation showed significant (p < 0.05) increasing trends during the winter (November and December months) season. Similarly, the results of seasonal and annual air temperature showed a significant increase from 1 °C to 1.5 °C for the past 49 years in the basin. According to the Sen’s slope estimator, the rate of increment in seasonal temperature slope (0.26 °C/season) and precipitation (9.02 mm/season) were greater than annual air temperature (0.04 °C/year) and precipitation (1.36 mm/year). By comparing the results of SPI and RDI indices showed good performance at 9 (r = 0.96, p < 0.01) and 12 (r = 0.99, p < 0.01) month drought analysis. However, the yearly drought analysis at over all stations indicated that a 20 years were under dry conditions in entire study area during 49 years. We found the extreme dry and wet conditions in the study region were prevailing during the years of 2001 and 2007, and 1994 and 2013, respectively. Overall, the analysis and quantifications of this study provides a mechanism for the policy makers to mitigate the impact of extreme climate and drought conditions in order to improve local water resources management in the region.

     

三峡水情自动测报系统中的多信道传输

介绍了超短波、公众交换电话网（PSTN）、国际海事卫星C类业务（INMARSAT-C）、全线通卫星（OmniTRACS）这4种通信信道在三峡水情自动测报系统中的应用,详细论述了传输中的关键问题.     

基于对等网的分布式气象水文数据共享策略研究

当前气象水文数据共享主要采取传统C/S模式的集中式控制结构,存在灵活性、抗毁性低的缺点,为此提出把对等网（P2P）技术应用于战时气象水文信息网络建设中。介绍了基于现有军地信息基础设施,在复杂电磁环境下构建气象水文数据共享对等网的总体构想,目的是建立具有高度灵活性、扩展性、健壮性的对等网络,与现有集中式气象水文数据共享网络相辅相成,以谋求最大限度地生存并获取最大信息优势。     

Trend Detection of Drought in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions of Iran Based on Implementation of Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) and Application of Non-Parametrical Statistical Method

Drought is known as one of the main natural hazards especially in arid and semi-arid regions where there are considerable issues in regard to water resources management. Also, climate changes has been introduced as a global concern and therefore, under conditions of climate change and global warming, the investigation of drought severity trend in regions such as Iran which is mainly covered by arid and semi-arid climate conditions is in the primary of importance. Therefore, in this study, based on the application of Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) for assessment drought severities, and also the implementation of non-parametric Mann- Kendall statistics and Sen’s slope estimator, the trends in different time series of RDI (3, 6, 9, 12, 18 and 24 monthly time series) were investigated. Results indicated the frequent decreasing trends in RDI time series particularly for long term time series (12, 18 and 24 monthly time series) than short term ones. Decreasing trend in RDI time series means the increasing trend in drought severities. Since the water resources especially ground water in most cases are affected by long term droughts, therefore, increasing trend in drought intensities in long term ones can be a threat for water resources management in surveyed areas.     

Assessing Socioeconomic Drought Based on a Standardized Supply and Demand Water Index

Socioeconomic drought occurs when a water shortage is caused by an imbalance between the supply and demand of water resources in natural and human socioeconomic systems. Compared with meteorological drought, hydrological drought, and agricultural drought, socioeconomic drought has received relatively little attention. Hence, this study aims to construct a universal and relatively simple socioeconomic drought assessment index, the Standardized Supply and Demand Water Index (SSDWI). Taking the Jianjiang River Basin (JJRB) in Guangdong Province, China, as an example, we analyzed the socioeconomic drought characteristics and trends from 1985 to 2019. The return periods of different levels of drought were calculated. The relationships among socioeconomic, meteorological, and hydrological droughts and their potential drivers were discussed. Results showed that: (1) SSDWI can assess the socioeconomic drought conditions well at the basin scale. Based on the SSWDI, during the 35-year study period, 29 socioeconomic droughts occurred in the basin, with an average duration of 6.16 months and average severity of 5.82. Socioeconomic droughts mainly occurred in autumn and winter, which also had more severe droughts than other seasons. (2) In the JJRB, the joint return periods of “∪” and “∩” for moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought were 8.81a and 10.81a, 16.49a and 26.44a, and 41.68a and 91.13a, respectively. (3) Because of the increasing outflow from Gaozhou Reservoir, the occurrence probability of socioeconomic drought and hydrological drought in the JJRB has declined significantly since 2008. Reservoir scheduling helps alleviate hydrological and socioeconomic drought in the basin.

     

基于对等网的分布式气象水文数据共享策略研究

当前气象水文数据共享主要采取传统C/S模式的集中式控制结构,存在灵活性、抗毁性低的缺点,为此提出把对等网(P2P)技术应用于战时气象水文信息网络建设中.介绍了基于现有军地信息基础设施,在复杂电磁环境下构建气象水文数据共享对等网的总体构想,目的是建立具有高度灵活性、扩展性、健壮性的对等网络,与现有集中式气象水文数据共享网络相辅相成,以谋求最大限度地生存并获取最大信息优势.     

Estimation of Suspended Sediment Concentration by M5 Model Tree Based on Hydrological and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Data

The Estimation of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is an important factor in river engineering, which is used as an indicator of land-use change, water quality studies, and all projects related to constructions in rivers. In this research, the M5 model tree and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data were utilized to estimate the SSC at Ahvaz station on the Karun River. In this study, 135 cloud-free images of the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite were taken for days corresponding to field SSC data, during the years 2000 to 2015. Input parameters of the model tree in this study were flow discharge, derived from hydrological data, and red (R), near-infrared (NIR) bands, and NIR/R ratio extracted from MODIS imagery. The results of statistical analysis illustrate that the M5 model outperforms the sediment rating curve (SRC) method, which is the most common method of estimating suspended sediment load. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index for the M5 model tree of 0.58 was achieved, which was much better than that of the SRC method (0.26). At high fluxes, the efficiency of the SRC method significantly reduced, while the model tree provides acceptable results. The global sensitivity analysis on the M5 model pointed out that 93% of output variance was established by the main effects of input parameters, and less than 7% belong to the interaction effects. 73% and 12% of output variance specified by the main effects of flow discharge and NIR/R ratio, respectively.

     

Climate Change Impact Assessment on Blue and Green Water by Coupling of Representative CMIP5 Climate Models with Physical Based Hydrological Model

Water Resources Management - Climatic changes have altered hydrological and climatic parameters worldwide, and climate projections suggest that such alterations will continue. In order to maintain...     

Hydrological Assessment of the 1973 Treaty on the Transboundary Helmand River,Using the SWAT Model and a Global Climate Database

Exploitation of the water resources of the Helmand River has been challenging for Iran and Afghanistan. Debates on this issue finally led to a treaty in 1973 between the two countries, in which a total amount of 26 m³/s water from the Helmand River should be delivered to Iran in a normal (or an above normal) water year. The treaty also specifies that a “normal water year” means the year during which the total volume of water at the hydrometric station of Dehrawud (upstream of the Kajakai Dam) is 5661.7 million cubic meter (MCM). This paper aims to assess the long term hydrological conditions of the Upper Helmand River, to detect the occurrence of any non-stationary process in its streamflow time series and compare the possible changes with the content of the 1973 water treaty. Due to very date scarce situation of this region, the SWAT (Soil & Water Assessment Tool) model and CRU (Climatic Research Unit) global dataset were applied to create the long term time series. The results showed that there has been no significant change in annual mean flows in the Upper Helmand River basin. However, there is a consistent increase in monthly flows from November to February and a decrease of the flows in June and July. The monthly changes can be attributed to an increasing trend in temperature in the study area, earlier snowmelts during winter and less snow pack in summer. The applied methodology of this study is useful to cope with the region’s data scarcity and can be applied for similar studies requiring long term time series of hydrological variables.     

Analysis of Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Hydrological Drought: a Case Study in the Wei River Basin,China

Climate change and human activity are the two major drivers that can alter hydrological cycle processes and influence the characteristics of hydrological drought in river basins. The present study selects the Wei River Basin (WRB) as a case study region in which to assess the impacts of climate change and human activity on hydrological drought based on the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) on different time scales. The Generalized Additive Models in Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) are used to construct a time-dependent SRI (SRI_var) considering the non-stationarity of runoff series under changing environmental conditions. The results indicate that the SRI_var is more robust and reliable than the traditional SRI. We also determine that different driving factors can influence the hydrological drought evolution on different time scales. On shorter time scales, the effects of human activity on hydrological drought are stronger than those of climate change; on longer time scales, climate change is considered to be the dominant factor. The results presented in this study are beneficial for providing a reference for hydrological drought analysis by considering non-stationarity as well as investigating how hydrological drought responds to climate change and human activity on various time scales, thereby providing scientific information for drought forecasting and water resources management over different time scales under non-stationary conditions.     

The Effect of Temperature Adjustment on Reference Evapotranspiration and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) in Iran

The reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) is necessary to calculate Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). To estimate ET₀, FAO56 Penman-Monteith method which needs reference stations data is commonly used. Most of the meteorological stations in Iran are classified as non-reference satations and The use of their data in ET₀ calculation can affect the RDI. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the effect of temperature adjustment based on the reference condition on ET₀ and RDI values in non-reference stations of Iran. For this purpose, the meteorological data, recorded during 1960–2014 in 27 non-reference stations located in arid and semi-arid regions, were used. First, the values of ET₀ were determined using observed values of temperature. Using these values, RDI were computed by Log-Normal and Gamma distributions at annual and 6-month scales. Then the values of minimum, maximum and dew point temperatures were adjusted on the basis of the reference condition. The values of ET₀ and consequently RDI were calculated using adjusted data. On the basis of obtained results, at annual and 6-month scales, using observed values of temperature instead of adjusted values in non-reference stations cause to overestimate the value of ET₀. Also, using observed data with no adjustment can change the drought class which was determined on the basis of RDI. According to these results, temperature adjustment based on reference condition can change the values of ET₀ and RDI which was calculated by using Log-Normal or Gamma distributions at annual and 6-month scales.