Calibration of a 1D/1D urban flood model using 1D/2D model results in the absence of field data

Recently increased flood events have been prompting researchers to improve existing coupled flood-models such as one-dimensional (1D)/1D and 1D/two-dimensional (2D) models. While 1D/1D models simulate sewer and surface networks using a one-dimensional approach, 1D/2D models represent the surface network by a two-dimensional surface grid. However their application raises two issues to urban flood modellers: (1) stormwater systems planning/emergency or risk analysis demands for fast models, and the 1D/2D computational time is prohibitive, (2) and the recognized lack of field data (e.g. Hunter et al. (2008)) causes difficulties for the calibration/validation of 1D/1D models. In this paper we propose to overcome these issues by calibrating a 1D/1D model with the results of a 1D/2D model. The flood-inundation results show that: (1) 1D/2D results can be used to calibrate faster 1D/1D models, (2) the 1D/1D model is able to map the 1D/2D flood maximum extent well, and the flooding limits satisfactorily in each time-step, (3) the 1D/1D model major differences are the instantaneous flow propagation and overestimation of the flood-depths within surface-ponds, (4) the agreement in the volume surcharged by both models is a necessary condition for the 1D surface-network validation and (5) the agreement of the manholes discharge shapes measures the fitness of the calibrated 1D surface-network.     

Influence of Time Step Synchronization on Urban Rainfall-Runoff Simulation in a Hybrid CPU/GPU 1D-2D Coupled Model

The 1D sewer - 2D surface coupled hydrodynamic model has increasingly become an essential tool for simulating and predicting the flood process and is widely used in the study of urban rainfall-runoff simulation. The current method of using the smaller time step of the sub model in the coupled model as the synchronization time greatly limits the computational efficiency, especially in the case of the large data amount or models executed in different platforms and in various types of codes. To evaluate the impact of time synchronization on the rainfall-runoff process in a coupled hydrodynamic model, a new model that couples the 2D GPU accelerated shallow water model and the 1D SWMM is applied to two urban catchments to simulate the rainfall-runoff-drainage processes, the fixed time step (5 s, 10 s, 30 s, 60 s, 120 s, 180 s and 300 s) is adopted to ensure the calculation efficiency and precision of the model. The results show that the time computational efficiency can be improved by 7.27%–27.37% in different scenarios compared with the method applying 2D model time step as the synchronization time; the surface runoff process is hardly affected as the synchronization time changes; and the relative error of the drainage process is less than 2.5% when the synchronization time is less than 60 s. Therefore, the fixed synchronization time method is recommended in the 1D-2D coupled model to improve the computational efficiency for flood and inundation simulation. Based on the advantage that the fixed synchronization time is easy to realize in the programming of the model and the high efficiency of the fixed synchronization time method concluded above, this work is expected to provide a reference for model coupling applications.

     

实时动态耦合模型及其在洪水风险图中的应用

将水力学的一维模型和二维模型实时动态耦合,可以解决溃堤、漫堤等洪水演进问题. 但传统的一维和 二维洪水演进模型通常是独立的模块,且模拟计算所花时间较长,结果也不够准确. 把独立的一维和二维模型 通过时间同步和空间耦合节点的对应关系,建立了一、二维实时动态耦合模型. 利用干水深和湿水深理论,改进 了传统的洪水演进模型. 采用该模型模拟了谷堆圩蓄滞洪区的溃堤洪水演进情况,通过历史洪水对模型进行了 验证,基于模拟结果绘制了规范的洪水风险图. 结果表明:一、二维水动力实时动态耦合模型在模拟溃堤洪水 时,模拟计算结果较传统的方法更为合理,且花费时间更少.     

Groundwater infiltration, surface water inflow and sewerage exfiltration considering hydrodynamic conditions in sewer systems

Sewer systems are closely interlinked with groundwater and surface water. Due to leaks and regular openings in the sewer system (e.g. combined sewer overflow structures with sometimes reverse pressure conditions), groundwater infiltration and surface water inflow as well as exfiltration of sewage take place and cannot be avoided. In the paper a new hydrodynamic sewer network modelling approach will be presented, which includes--besides precipitation--hydrographs of groundwater and surface water as essential boundary conditions. The concept of the modelling approach and the models to describe the infiltration, inflow and exfiltration fluxes are described. The model application to the sewerage system of the City of Dresden during a flood event with complex conditions shows that the processes of infiltration, exfiltration and surface water inflows can be described with a higher reliability and accuracy, showing that surface water inflow causes a pronounced system reaction. Further, according to the simulation results, a high sensitivity of exfiltration rates on the in-sewer water levels and a relatively low influence of the dynamic conditions on the infiltration rates were found.     

Performance assessment of two-dimensional hydraulic models for generation of flood inundation maps in mountain river basins

Hydraulic models for the generation of flood inundation maps are not commonly applied in mountain river basins because of the difficulty in modeling the hydraulic behavior and the complex topography. This paper presents a comparative analysis of the performance of four twodimensional hydraulic models(HEC-RAS 2D, Iber 2D, Flood Modeller 2D, and PCSWMM 2D) with respect to the generation of flood inundation maps. The study area covers a 5-km reach of the Santa Barbara River located in the Ecuadorian Andes, at 2330 masl, in Gualaceo.The model's performance was evaluated based on the water surface elevation and flood extent, in terms of the mean absolute difference and measure of fit. The analysis revealed that, for a given case, Iber 2D has the best performance in simulating the water level and inundation for flood events with 20-and 50-year return periods, respectively, followed by Flood Modeller 2D, HEC-RAS 2D, and PCSWMM 2D in terms of their performance. Grid resolution, the way in which hydraulic structures are mimicked, the model code, and the default value of the parameters are considered the main sources of prediction uncertainty.     

HEC-RAS模型在二维溃坝洪水研究中的应用

为准确模拟大坝失事后溃坝洪水的下游演进,运用HEC-RAS二维水动力学模型,修正面板坝溃口发展曲线,设计两种闸门开度的小井沟面板坝漫顶溃坝工况,模拟水库泄洪影响下溃坝洪水的下游演进并生成相应的洪水风险图、最大流速分布图、滞留时间图。研究结果展现了溃坝洪水在中下游平原丘陵地区的泛滥情况、洪水风险的分布差异以及水库泄洪对溃坝洪水的影响。分析得出不同闸门开度下溃坝洪水在中下游平原丘陵地区的淹没水深和范围差异明显,最大流速和洪水滞留时间区别不大, 说明水库全力泄洪能有效降低溃坝洪水对下游人员聚居的平原地区的危害。研究成果对后续的人员疏散和损失估计具有重要参考意义。     

基于多重网格的地表水文与二维水动力动态双向耦合模型研究

针对流域洪涝模拟模型的计算精度、格式稳定性及计算效率等问题,本文提出基于多重网格技术的地表水文与二维水动力动态双向耦合模型(M-DBCM)。地表水文模型采用非线性水库法模拟降雨产流和径流;二维水动力模型采用浅水方程模拟洪水演进过程。采用不同分辨率的网格划分计算区域,在粗网格区域采用地表水文模型模拟降雨径流过程;在细网格区域采用二维水动力模型模拟洪涝积水区的水流运动。地表水文和二维水动力模型通过内部耦合移动界面(Coupling Moving Interface, CMI)实现无缝连接,保证通过CMI的水量和动量等通量守恒,提高模型的模拟精度。采用时间显式格式同时求解地表水文和水动力模型,在不同区域采用不同的计算时间步长,以提高模型的计算效率。通过典型案例验证本文构建的耦合模型的性能,结果表明本文提出的动态双向耦合模型能够在保证模拟精度的同时提高计算效率。     

基于一维和二维耦合数学模型的南澧河洪水风险分析

洪水风险图可以综合直观反映某一区域洪灾发生时的淹没特征信息、区域的地理特征信息和社会经济,其已成为洪水风险管理的重要科学依据。为加强南澧河区域的安全建设规划,利用MIKE软件建立了南澧河河道及两岸保护区的一维和二维耦合水动力学模型,采用海河流域“96·8”历史洪水资料进行了模型的验证。利用该模型模拟了南澧河发生100 a一遇的洪水演进过程。通过对比验证,此模型可以作为南澧河洪水风险分析的依据,为南澧河周边的安全建设提供重要依据。     

GIS-based applications of sensitivity analysis for sewer models

Sensitivity analysis (SA) evaluates the impact of changes in model parameters on model predictions. Such an analysis is commonly used when developing or applying environmental models to improve the understanding of underlying system behaviours and the impact and interactions of model parameters. The novelty of this paper is a geo-referenced visualization of sensitivity indices for model parameters in a combined sewer model using geographic information system (GIS) software. The result is a collection of maps for each analysis, where sensitivity indices (calculated for model parameters of interest) are illustrated according to a predefined symbology. In this paper, four types of maps (an uncertainty map, calibration map, vulnerability map, and design map) are created for an example case study. This article highlights the advantages and limitations of GIS-based SA of sewer models. The conclusion shows that for all analyzed applications, GIS-based SA is useful for analyzing, discussing and interpreting the model parameter sensitivity and its spatial dimension. The method can lead to a comprehensive view of the sewer system.     

An integrated modeling approach to predict flooding on urban basin.

Correct prediction of flood extents in urban catchments has become a challenging issue. The traditional urban drainage models that consider only the sewerage-network are able to simulate the drainage system correctly until there is no overflow from the network inlet or manhole. When such overflows exist due to insufficient drainage capacity of downstream pipes or channels, it becomes difficult to reproduce the actual flood extents using these traditional one-phase simulation techniques. On the other hand, the traditional 2D models that simulate the surface flooding resulting from rainfall and/or levee break do not consider the sewerage network. As a result, the correct flooding situation is rarely addressed from those available traditional 1D and 2D models. This paper presents an integrated model that simultaneously simulates the sewerage network, river network and 2D mesh network to get correct flood extents. The model has been successfully applied into the Tenpaku basin (Nagoya, Japan), which experienced severe flooding with a maximum flood depth more than 1.5 m on September 11, 2000 when heavy rainfall, 580 mm in 28 hrs (return period > 100 yr), occurred over the catchments. Close agreements between the simulated flood depths and observed data ensure that the present integrated modeling approach is able to reproduce the urban flooding situation accurately, which rarely can be obtained through the traditional 1D and 2D modeling approaches.     

Comparative Evaluation of Genetic Programming and Neural Network as Potential Surrogate Models for Coastal Aquifer Management

Determining the optimal rates of groundwater extraction for the sustainable use of coastal aquifers is a complex water resources management problem. It necessitates the application of a 3D simulation model for coupled flow and transport simulation together with an optimization algorithm in a linked simulation-optimization framework. The use of numerical models for aquifer simulation within optimization models is constrained by the huge computational burden involved. Approximation surrogates are widely used to replace the numerical simulation model, the widely used surrogate model being Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). This study evaluates genetic programming (GP) as a potential surrogate modeling tool and compares the advantages and disadvantages with the neural network based surrogate modeling approach. Two linked simulation optimization models based on ANN and GP surrogate models are developed to determine the optimal groundwater extraction rates for an illustrative coastal aquifer. The surrogate models are linked to a genetic algorithm for optimization. The optimal solutions obtained using the two approaches are compared and the advantages of GP over the ANN surrogates evaluated.     

Inundation analysis of the effectiveness of an estuarygate in Hori River

Storm surges and floods around bays in Japan frequently result in water disasters. Both dikes and estuary gates can be constructed in urban areas near bays as counter measures. Estuary gates at the mouth of a river are intended to protect the upstream areas from storm surges and tsunamis. The sewer systems in urban areas also decrease the inundation. In this study, a numerical simulation is carried out to examine the effectiveness of the estuary gate and performance of the sewer system. A synthetic analysis model of inundation phenomena is developed and applied to the behavior of water in the urban area near the Nagoya Port and the estuary region of the Hori River. The developed model consists of models for the sea, river, sewer, overland flood flow, and typhoon. The inundation analysis model is validated by a comparison of analytical and observed results. The features of the inundations in the urban area caused by various conditions are discussed.     

西三洼洪水演进数值模拟及洪水风险分析

为模拟西三洼蓄滞洪区洪水演进,对其洪水风险进行分析,以一、二维非恒定流控制方程为基本理论,采用有限体积法,结合西三洼地形资料及大清河流域水文资料,建立一、二维耦合的洪水演进数学模型。采用63·8洪水实测资料对模型进行验证,结果基本吻合。对不同工况及重现期下的设计洪水进行洪水演进模拟计算并绘制洪水风险图。研究表明:该模型可模拟西三洼蓄滞洪区各分洪口门开扒时间、各时刻淹没面积、淹没水深及滞洪量等水情信息及其变化过程;规划情况(增加安全区)的滞洪总量大于现状情况滞洪总量;发生百年一遇洪水时,西三洼蓄滞洪区77%地区都遭受洪水侵害,其中57%区域为危险区,11%区域为重灾区,5%区域为中灾区。研究成果可为防汛部门制定科学合理的防洪减灾规划提供参考依据。     

Inundation analysis of the effectiveness of an estuarygate in Hori River

Storm surges and floods around bays in Japan frequently result in water disasters. Both dikes and estuary gates can be constructed in urban areas near bays as counter measures. Estuary gates at the mouth of a river are intended to protect the upstream areas from storm surges and tsunamis. The sewer systems in urban areas also decrease the inundation. In this study, a numerical simulation is carried out to examine the effectiveness of the estuary gate and performance of the sewer system. A synthetic analysis model of inundation phenomena is developed and applied to the behavior of water in the urban area near the Nagoya Port and the estuary region of the Hori River. The developed model consists of models for the sea, river, sewer, overland flood flow, and typhoon. The inundation analysis model is validated by a comparison of analytical and observed results. The features of the inundations in the urban area caused by various conditions are discussed.     

2D Finite Element Inundation Modelling in Anabranching Channels with Sparse Data: Examination of Uncertainties

Flood inundation modelling in developing countries is severely limited by the lack of high resolution terrain data and suitable imagery to map flood extents. This study assessed the predictive uncertainty of modelled flood extents generated from TELEMAC2D model using low-cost, sparse input data commonly available in developing countries. We studied a river reach characterised by anabranching channels and river islands in eastern India. In this complex fluvial setting, we analysed computational uncertainty as a function of error in both satellite-derived flood-extent maps using a Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE)-based approach. The model performance was quite sensitive to the uncertainty in the inflow hydrograph, particularly close to the flood peak. Evaluation of the flood inundation probability map, conditioned upon deterministic and probabilistic observed flood extents, reveals that the effect of using probabilistic observed data is only evident for portions of the model domain where the model output is free from consistent bias (over or under prediction) likely created by the imperfect terrain data.     

1D/1D及1D/2D耦合水动力模型构建方法研究

为实现高速率、精细化的洪涝模拟,以丹麦R市A区的排水系统为研究对象,构建和比较基于GIS空域建模技术及SWMM水动力耦合的1D/1D(双一维)排水模型与基于MIKE URBAN的1D/2D(一维管流和二维洪涝)耦合排水模型,对研究区的排水系统进行暴雨洪涝模拟及评估比较。研究两种模型的建模过程、模拟精度及计算效率,描述两种模型的优劣性和适用条件。结果表明:1D/1D排水模型可实现地表淹没的拓展分析,同时确保较高的稳定度和运算速度,且在较低重现期下具有较高的计算精度,适用于大尺度、应急管理且模拟精度要求相对较低的情景; 1D/2D排水模型能实现地表积水的双向流动计算,具有良好的精细度,但其信息处理和计算时间较长,适用于计算环境和模拟精度要求较高的情景。研究结果将为不同情景、不同尺度的洪涝模拟提供科学依据。     

Urine nitrification and sewer discharge to realize in-sewer denitrification to simplify sewage treatment in Hong Kong

The chemically enhanced primary treatment works in Hong Kong will be upgraded for biological nitrogen removal. This study proposed a novel approach to waive the upgrading by urine source-separation, onsite nitrification and discharge of nitrified urine into sewers to achieve in-sewer denitrification. Human urine was collected and a lab-scale experiment for full urine nitrification was conducted. The results showed that full nitrification was achieved with alkaline addition. Simulation of nitrified urine discharge into an 8-km pressure main in Hong Kong was conducted with a quasi-2D dynamic sewer model developed from a previously calibrated sewer biofilm model. It was assumed that 70% of the residents' urine was collected and fully nitrified on-site. The simulation results revealed that the proposed approach is effective in removal of nitrogen within the sewer, which decreases ammonia-N at the sewer outlet to a level required for secondary effluent discharge in Hong Kong.     

The efficiency of asset management strategies to reduce urban flood risk

In this study, three asset management strategies were compared with respect to their efficiency to reduce flood risk. Data from call centres at two municipalities were used to quantify urban flood risks associated with three causes of urban flooding: gully pot blockage, sewer pipe blockage and sewer overloading. The efficiency of three flood reduction strategies was assessed based on their effect on the causes contributing to flood risk. The sensitivity of the results to uncertainty in the data source, citizens' calls, was analysed through incorporation of uncertainty ranges taken from customer complaint literature. Based on the available data it could be shown that increasing gully pot blockage is the most efficient action to reduce flood risk, given data uncertainty. If differences between cause incidences are large, as in the presented case study, call data are sufficient to decide how flood risk can be most efficiently reduced. According to the results of this analysis, enlargement of sewer pipes is not an efficient strategy to reduce flood risk, because flood risk associated with sewer overloading is small compared to other failure mechanisms.     

Application of a leakage model to assess exfiltration from sewers.

The exfiltration of wastewater from sewer systems in urban areas causes a deterioration of soil and possibly groundwater quality. Beside the simulation of transport and degradation processes in the unsaturated zone and in the aquifer the analysis of the potential impact requires the estimation of quantity and temporal variation of wastewater exfiltration. Exfiltration can be assessed by the application of a leakage model. The hydrological approach was originally developed to simulate the interactions between the groundwater and surface water, it was adapted to allow for modelling of interactions between groundwater and sewer system. In order to approximate the exfiltration specific model parameters infiltration specific parameters were used as a basis. Scenario analysis of the exfiltration in the City of Dresden from 1997 to 1999 and during the flood event in August 2002 shows the variation and the extent of exfiltration rates.     

Decision making in flood risk based storm sewer network design

It is widely recognised that flood risk needs to be taken into account when designing a storm sewer network. Flood risk is generally a combination of flood consequences and flood probabilities. This paper aims to explore the decision making in flood risk based storm sewer network design. A multiobjective optimization is proposed to find the Pareto front of optimal designs in terms of low construction cost and low flood risk. The decision making process then follows this multi-objective optimization to select a best design from the Pareto front. The traditional way of designing a storm sewer system based on a predefined design storm is used as one of the decision making criteria. Additionally, three commonly used risk based criteria, i.e., the expected flood risk based criterion, the Hurwicz criterion and the stochastic dominance based criterion, are investigated and applied in this paper. Different decisions are made according to different criteria as a result of different concerns represented by the criteria. The proposed procedure is applied to a simple storm sewer network design to demonstrate its effectiveness and the different criteria are compared.