Forecast of electricity consumption in Cyprus up to the year 2030: The potential impact of climate change

This paper provides a forecast of electricity consumption in Cyprus up to the year 2030, based on econometric analysis of energy use as a function of macroeconomic variables, prices and weather conditions. If past trends continue electricity use is expected to triple in the coming 20–25 years, with the residential and commercial sectors increasing their already high shares in total consumption. Besides this reference scenario it was attempted to assess the impact of climate change on electricity use. According to official projections, the average temperature in the Eastern Mediterranean is expected to rise by about 1 °C by the year 2030. Using our econometrically estimated model, we calculated that electricity consumption in Cyprus may be about 2.9% higher in 2030 than in the reference scenario. This might lead to a welfare loss of 15 million Euros in 2020 and 45 million Euros in 2030; for the entire period 2008–2030 the present value of costs may exceed 200 million Euros (all expressed in constant Euros of 2007). Moreover, we assessed the additional peak electricity load requirements in the future because of climate change: extra load may amount to 65–75 Megawatts (MW) in the year 2020 and 85–95 MW in 2030.     

The impact of the daylight saving time on electricity consumption—A case study from Jordan

The paper examines the impact of daylight saving time (DST) on electricity consumption in Jordan. Two types of analysis were done: the first analysis examines the impact of DST on the lighting loads based on a survey study made for residential and commercial sectors. The second examines the impact of DST on the over all electricity generation through analyzing the daily load curves (DLCs) before and after the DST onset and removal in 2000 and 2007. The results show that the application of DST during the year 2000 saves the electricity used for illumination by −0.73% but it increases the overall generation at the onset and removal of DST by 0.5% and 1.4% due to increase in the heating and cooling loads. The analysis of DLCs during the year 2007 shows similar effects as in the year 2000 except during the early morning period at the DST onset where DST decreases the demand during this time. The analysis shows that DST decreases the electricity demand at DST onset by 0.2% and increases it at DST removal by 0.3%. A possible decrease in the electricity consumption may take place if the DST is implemented from April to end of August.     

The effect of daylight saving time options on electricity consumption of Turkey

Most of the developed countries in the world use Daylight Saving Time (DST) as an energy conservation method. This study focuses on the effects of DST on electrical lighting in the buildings in Turkey. Turkey might adjust its daylight saving time to decrease energy consumption. For this purpose, five scenarios are considered and compared to status quo. The scenario with a 30-minute forward shift to single DST from April to October, stands out as the best solution to conserve electricity across the entire country. The results of the study show that maximum saving is obtained in this scenario by at least 0.7% on the consumption of lighting electricity.     

A missing link? The case of Norway and Sweden: Does increased renewable energy production impact domestic greenhouse gas emissions?

This article examines how the EU׳s RES directive¹ will impact domestic greenhouse gas emissions in Norway and Sweden by 2020. The directive aims for a higher RES share in the energy consumption mix, and Norway and Sweden have established a common electricity certificate scheme to help achieve these RES goals. In terms of how these two national RES plans will impact domestic emissions by 2020, factors such as nuclear power, consumption changes and the energy balance must be considered. The most practical approach to evaluate the plans’ impact on emissions is to focus on changes in carbon-based consumption within the three directive sectors.The Norwegian RES action plan will not affect domestic emissions unless the electricity surplus generated by the certificate market is used to phase out fossil fuels in domestic sectors beyond the scope of the RES directive. The use of electricity to phase out fossil fuel consumption in the offshore sector would substantially reduce Norwegian emissions figures. The Swedish plan would positively impact Swedish greenhouse gas emissions; however, this impact is limited, primarily because a substantial increase in energy consumption is expected.     

Technical and economic feasibility study of using Micro CHP in the different climate zones of Iran

The growing worldwide demand for less polluting shapes of energy have led to a renewed interest in the use of Micro Combined Heat and Power (Micro CHP) technologies in the residential sector. Micro CHP have been introduced around Iran recently, and expected to diffuse more and more.In this paper, technical and economic studies for the use of Micro CHP in the different climate zones of Iran are executed. These zones are categorized in to five; Tehran, Rasht, Bandar Abbas, Ardebil and Yazd, based on weather conditions. Later on using an economic model, both annual energy savings and percentage of system profitability in each zone are calculated as well as reduction in annual emissions. It should be mentioned that, for economic calculations, gas and electricity price are determined using a sensitivity analysis. This analysis indicated that profitability of Micro CHP systems are sensitive to energy prices, as well as hours needed for heating room in each climate zones.The analysis results show that Ardebil with 38 million RLS (with electricity buyback) annual energy saving is recognized as the best option for installing Micro CHP. On the other hand, Bandar Abbas with 2.5 million RLS annual energy saving is not suitable.     

Effect of daylight saving time on lighting energy use: A literature review

The principal reason for introducing (and extending) daylight saving time (DST) was, and still is, projected energy savings, particularly for electric lighting. This paper presents a literature review concerning the effects of DST on energy use. Simple estimates suggest a reduction in national electricity use of around 0.5%, as a result of residential lighting reduction. Several studies have demonstrated effects of this size based on more complex simulations or on measured data. However, there are just as many studies that suggest no effect, and some studies suggest overall energy penalties, particularly if gasoline consumption is accounted for. There is general consensus that DST does contribute to an evening reduction in peak demand for electricity, though this may be offset by an increase in the morning. Nevertheless, the basic patterns of energy use, and the energy efficiency of buildings and equipment have changed since many of these studies were conducted. Therefore, we recommend that future energy policy decisions regarding changes to DST be preceded by high-quality research based on detailed analysis of prevailing energy use, and behaviours and systems that affect energy use. This would be timely, given the extension to DST underway in North America in 2007.     

Direct load control of residential water heaters

In Norway there is a growing concern that electricity production and transmission may not meet the demand in peak-load situations. It is therefore important to evaluate the potential of different demand-side measures that may contribute to reduce peak load. This paper analyses data from an experiment where residential water heaters were automatically disconnected during peak periods of the day. A model of hourly electricity consumption is used to evaluate the effects on the load of the disconnections. The results indicate an average consumption reduction per household of approximately 0.5 kWh/h during disconnection, and an additional average increase in consumption the following hour, due to the payback effect, that may reach up to 0.28 kWh/h per household.     

The use of sub-hourly primary meter data to identify electricity savings in municipal buildings

Sub-hourly electricity consumption data is being routinely collected from non-domestic buildings in European countries, yet there is little published guidance on how to analyse this data. A new analysis technique is described that produces electricity load profile indicators to help identify potential electricity savings from 81 municipal buildings of six different types: commercial and public offices, libraries and museums, sport centres, schools, community centres and care homes/hostels. This approach is different from conventional energy management analysis techniques since it uses total electricity consumption data in half-hourly periods rather than annual or monthly data. The analysis enabled the detection of buildings with consumption profiles that differ significantly from the typical profile for that building type. This provided a systematic and rapid procedure to identify potential energy saving opportunities in multiple buildings. The new approach introduces a standard statistical technique, independent of energy manager judgement, to help identify energy saving opportunities in buildings.     

建议我国尽快恢复夏时制

夏时制是人为规定将时针拨快一小时、充分利用夏季白天日照时间长的特点而节约照明用电的一种制度。国际上已有70多个国家实行夏时制,节电源效果十分明显。我国从1986 至1991年实行了6年夏时制,1986年当年节电7亿kWh,占全国生活用电的2．82％。建议尽快恢复实行夏时制,这对于缓和我国电力供应紧张、建设节约型社会都是非常必要的。     

天津市工业用水现状及归因分析

为识别影响天津市工业用水的主要因素,预判多因素影响下天津市工业用水的发展趋势,通过分析近十年来天津市工业用水变化情况,并运用增量分解法定量描述了各因素对于工业用水的影响程度。结果表明,2003年以来对天津市工业用水贡献较大的因素为工业规模和工业用水效率,近10年来因工业规模扩大带来的年均用水增量约7 800×104 m3,因技术改进、实施节水措施等因素带来的年均节水量约7 600×104 m3;2008年以后用水效率提升速度放缓,工业用水量在工业规模的拉动下呈直线上升;工业结构调整对工业用水的贡献较微弱,工业结构调整并未一直向用水量减小的方向进行。     

Determinants of variation in household CO2 emissions between and within countries

Variation in household CO₂ emissions between and within countries may have important consequences for the equity dimension of climate policies. In this study we aim to identify some determinants of national household CO₂ emissions and their distribution across income groups. For that purpose, we quantify the CO₂ emissions of households in the Netherlands, UK, Sweden and Norway around the year 2000 by combining a hybrid approach of process analysis and input–output analysis with data on household expenditures. Our results show that average households in the Netherlands and the UK give rise to higher amounts of CO₂ emissions than households in Sweden and Norway. Moreover, CO₂ emission intensities of household consumption decrease with increasing income in the Netherlands and the UK, whereas they increase in Sweden and Norway. A comparison of the national results at the product level points out that country characteristics, like energy supply, population density and the availability of district heating, influence variation in household CO₂ emissions between and within countries.     

Estimating energy savings due to conservation programmes: The BPA residential weatherization pilot programme

The Bonneville Power Administration operated a residential weatherization pilot programme from 1980 to 1982. The programme provided free home energy audits to more than 7000 electrically heated homes in the Pacific Northwest and gave zero-interest loans to weatherize over 4000 of these homes. The total cost of the programme was $11 million. This paper describes several mehtods used to estimate the net energy-saving effect of the BPA programme (ie the electricity saving that could be directly attributed to the programme). The simplest method ivolves estimation of weather adjusted annual electricity consumption for each household. The second approach uses this weather adjusted consumption as the dependent variable in a pooled time-series cross-section regression model of electricity use. The third approach involves estimation of qualitative choice models of the decisions to retrofit and to participate in the BPA programme. Results from these models are used to define Mills ratio terms that are then used as explanatory variables in the regression model of the second approach. The range in estimated programme saving, given the diversity of analytical methods used, is surprisingly small — 3100–3300 kWh/year per average programme participant.     

Demand-side management by electric utilities in Switzerland: Analyzing its impact on residential electricity demand

In this paper, we use panel data from a survey conducted on 30 utilities in Switzerland to estimate the impact of demand-side management (DSM) activity on residential electricity demand. Using the variation in DSM activity within utilities and across utilities over time we identify the impact of DSM programs and find that their presence reduces per customer residential electricity consumption by around 5%. If we consider monetary spending, the effect of a 10% increase in DSM spending causes a 0.14% reduction in per customer residential electricity consumption. The cost of saving a kilowatt hour is around 0.04CHF while the average cost of producing and distributing electricity in Switzerland is around 0.18CHF per kilowatt hour. We conclude that current DSM practices in Switzerland have a statistically significant effect on reducing the demand for residential electricity.     

Reduction of electricity use in Swedish industry and its impact on national power supply and European CO2 emissions

Decreased energy use is crucial for achieving sustainable energy solutions. This paper presents current and possible future electricity use in Swedish industry. Non-heavy lines of business (e.g. food, vehicles) that use one-third of the electricity in Swedish industry are analysed in detail. Most electricity is used in the support processes pumping and ventilation, and manufacturing by decomposition. Energy conservation can take place through e.g. more efficient light fittings and switching off ventilation during night and weekends. By energy-carrier switching, electricity used for heat production is replaced by e.g. fuel. Taking technically possible demand-side measures in the whole lines of business, according to energy audits in a set of factories, means a 35% demand reduction. A systems analysis of power production, trade, demand and conservation was made using the MODEST energy system optimisation model, which uses linear programming and considers the time-dependent impact on demand for days, weeks and seasons. Electricity that is replaced by district heating from a combined heat and power (CHP) plant has a dual impact on the electricity system through reduced demand and increased electricity generation. Reduced electricity consumption and enhanced cogeneration in Sweden enables increased electricity export, which displaces coal-fired condensing plants in the European electricity market and helps to reduce European CO₂ emissions. Within the European emission trading system, those electricity conservation measures should be taken that are more cost-efficient than other ways of reducing CO₂ emissions. The demand-side measures turn net electricity imports into net export and reduce annual operation costs and net CO₂ emissions due to covering Swedish electricity demand by 200 million euros and 6 Mtonne, respectively. With estimated electricity conservation in the whole of Swedish industry, net electricity exports would be larger and net CO₂ emissions would be even smaller.     

How does daylight saving time affect electricity demand? An answer using aggregate data from a natural experiment in Western Australia

Daylight saving time (DST) affects the lives of more than 1.6 billion people worldwide, with energy saving being the original rationale for its implementation. This study takes advantage of natural experiment data from September 2006 to March 2013 in Western Australia in which DST was observed from December 2006 to March 2009, to estimate the effect of DST on electricity demand. Using the difference-in-differences (DD) approach, we find that DST has little effect on overall electricity demand and electricity generation costs. However, it has a strong redistributional effect by reducing electricity demand substantially in the late afternoon and early evening. This redistributional effect of DST may be of particular interest for policymakers who are interested in controlling high demand and the short term energy market price.     

Impacts of a common green certificate market on electricity and CO2-emission markets in the Nordic countries

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of introducing a common Nordic system for tradable green certificates (TGCs) on the electricity market and a future market for tradable CO₂-emission permits (TEPs). In the analysis, the energy-system model generator MARKAL was used to model the electricity and district-heating supply systems in the four Nordic countries Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark. It is shown that the introduction of TGC quotas reduces wholesale electricity and TEP prices. The impact on the latter is very pronounced. Retail electricity prices may become lower or higher, depending on the TGC quota, than if obligations to fulfill TGC quotas were absent. The TGC scheme's efficiency in reducing a specific amount of CO₂ emissions is also compared to the corresponding efficiency of a TEP scheme involving a broader range of technologies. Furthermore, obligations to fulfill TGC quotas affect investment incentives for new non-renewable electricity supply. This seems especially true for gas-fired power plants. Finally, it is indicated that electricity supply based on biomass combustion dominates the TGC scheme, at least in the short run.     

Comparing electricity consumption trends: A multilevel index decomposition analysis of the Genevan and Swiss economy

Switzerland, including the canton of Geneva, aims to reduce its electricity consumption following its decision to phase out nuclear electricity production. To investigate whether national policies and a regional programme, both of which aim at improving electricity efficiency, may have had an effect, we disentangle the effects of changes in economic structure, overall economic activity and structure-corrected energy intensity (SCEI) on the electricity consumption in the canton of Geneva and in Switzerland on multiple aggregation levels. The primary sector being negligibly small, we define the economy as the secondary and tertiary sector.Our analysis shows that changes in electricity consumption in the Genevan and Swiss economy were mainly caused by changes in activity and SCEI, although structural changes were not negligible. Specifically, we have shown that correcting for structural change may significantly impact comparisons between regional SCEI trends.Our analysis shows that economy-wide electric energy efficiency improved both in Geneva and Switzerland. This is the case both for the time period 2000–2007 (first period, before implementation of the energy efficiency programme [EEP] éco21 in Geneva) and for the period 2008–2014 (second period, after implementation of the EEP, excluding 2015). In Switzerland, the average reductions in SCEI in the study periods were similar: 1.2% per year in the first period and 1.0% per year in the second period. The average reduction in SCEI in Geneva was faster in the second period (2.6% per year) than in the first period (1.5% per year). These findings suggest that national energy efficiency policies that have been in place since 2001 have been effective.A strong increase in SCEI by 4.6% occurred in Geneva in 2015, diminishing the gap between the Genevan and Swiss SCEI. We found that this increase was likely to be caused by weather effects. When including the year 2015, the average reduction in SCEI in the second period was 1.7% for Geneva and 1.1% for Switzerland. Moreover, we have shown that weather effects were more strongly correlated with SCEI than with absolute electricity consumption, highlighting the importance of correcting for structure and weather effects.Further, weather effects made it difficult to identify contributions from the EEP to the reduction of the Genevan SCEI. We found that the applicability IDA for tracing the effectiveness of EEPs needs to be critically assessed in view of data availability, confounding influences such as weather effects as well as the maturity and size of the EEP.     

Lower electricity prices and greenhouse gas emissions due to rooftop solar: empirical results for Massachusetts

Monthly and hourly correlations among photovoltaic (PV) capacity utilization, electricity prices, electricity consumption, and the thermal efficiency of power plants in Massachusetts reduce electricity prices and carbon emissions beyond average calculations. PV utilization rates are highest when the thermal efficiencies of natural gas fired power plants are lowest, which reduces emissions of CO₂ and CH₄ by 0.3% relative to the annual average emission rate. There is a positive correlation between PV utilization rates and electricity prices, which raises the implied price of PV electricity by up to 10% relative to the annual average price, such that the average MWh reduces electricity prices by $0.26–$1.86 per MWh. These price reductions save Massachusetts rate-payers $184 million between 2010 and 2012. The current and net present values of these savings are greater than the cost of solar renewable energy credits which is the policy instrument that is used to accelerate the installation of PV capacity. Together, these results suggest that rooftop PV is an economically viable source of power in Massachusetts even though it has not reached socket parity.     

Residential energy consumption patterns: the case of Lebanon

In an attempt to fill a significant gap in baseline information, 509 households have been studied to analyse the residential consumption patterns in the urban environment in Lebanon. The average annual household energy consumption has been found to be 6907 kWh, whereas per capita consumption is 1727 kWh. Seasonal and monthly variations are analysed indicating increased energy consumption in the summer months accounting for 28% of total annual consumption. Correlations are indicated for energy consumption with apartment price, area, income and number of residents. Multiple regression analysis indicated statistical significance of income, area and number of residents to the energy consumption. Based on current consumption and electricity generating technologies, 1.6 tons of CO₂, 7.3 kg of SO₂ in addition to other pollutants are generated per resident. Comparative analysis indicates that Lebanon has electricity consumption similar to that of Western Europe, paving the way for significant energy saving potential. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of power outages on households in developing countries: Evidence from Ethiopia

In developing countries, access to electricity has received much attention. However, the reliability of its supply has been given less focus, though power outages happen frequently and are expected to limit gains from electricity connection. In this paper, I go beyond electricity connection and provide an average estimate of monthly defensive expenditures at different monthly hours of power outages for urban households in Ethiopia, using the generalized propensity score method. I also elicit households' willingness to pay for improved electricity supply, using a stated preference method, to account for non-monetary costs of outages. Based on the average estimated results, a back-of-the-envelope calculation for urban households of Ethiopia with electricity connection provides a monthly defensive expenditure of US$14.8 million and a monthly willingness to pay of US$6.2 million for improved electricity supply, on top of the regular electricity bill. The study underscores that connection to electricity is not enough; the reliability of its supply is also important.