CO2 emissions and mitigation potential in China’s ammonia industry

Significant pressure from increasing CO₂ emissions and energy consumption in China’s industrialization process has highlighted a need to understand and mitigate the sources of these emissions. Ammonia production, as one of the most important fundamental industries in China, represents those heavy industries that contribute largely to this sharp increasing trend. In the country with the largest population in the world, ammonia output has undergone fast growth spurred by increasing demand for fertilizer of food production since 1950s. However, various types of technologies implemented in the industry make ammonia plants in China operate with huge differences in both energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. With consideration of these unique features, this paper attempts to estimate the amount of CO₂ emission from China’s ammonia production, and analyze the potential for carbon mitigation in the industry. Based on the estimation, related policy implications and measures required to realize the potential for mitigation are also discussed.     

China’s regional CO2 emissions: Characteristics,inter-regional transfer and emission reduction policies

This paper analyzes the characteristics of China’s regional CO₂ emissions and effects of economic growth and energy intensity using panel data from 1997 to 2009. The results show that there are remarkable regional disparities among eastern, central and western areas, regional elasticities of per capita GDP and energy intensity on CO₂ emissions, which reflect the regional differences in economic development, economy structure and restraining function of energy intensity decrease on the emission. Energy intensity reducing is more effective to emission abatement for provinces with higher elasticity of energy intensity, but may not be significant for provinces with lower elasticity. The inverse distribution of energy production and consumption, regional unfairness caused by institutional factors like energy price and tax system result in inter-regional CO₂ emission transfer embodied in the power transmission. The calculation indicates that the embodied emission transfer was gradually significant after 2003, from eastern area to the central and western areas, especially energy production provinces in central area, which leads to distortion on the emission and emission intensity. The regional emission reduction targets and supporting policies should be customized and consistent with the actual situations rather than setting the same target for all the provinces.     

Energy consumption and related CO2 emissions in five Latin American countries: Changes from 1990 to 2006 and perspectives

This study examines the primary energy consumption and energy-related CO₂ emissions in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela during the period 1990-2006. It also reviews important reforms in the energy sector of these countries as well as the promotion of energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy sources (RES). Using a decomposition analysis, results indicate that even though significant reductions in energy intensity have been achieved in Colombia, Mexico and in a lesser extent in Brazil and Argentina, the reduction of CO₂ emissions in these countries has not been significant due to an increased dependence on fossil fuels in their energy mix. Although the Latin American region has an important experience in the promotion of EE programs and renewable sources, the energy agenda of the examined countries focused mostly on the energy reforms during the analyzed period. The policy review suggests that further governmental support and strong public policies towards a more sustainable energy path are required to encourage a low carbon future in the region.     

Regional allocation of CO2 emissions allowance over provinces in China by 2020

The mitigation efforts of China are increasingly important for meeting global climate target since the rapid economic growth of China has led to an increasing share in the world's total CO₂ emissions. This paper sets out to explore the approach for realizing China's national mitigation targets submitted to the UNFCCC as part of the Copenhagen Accord; that is, to reduce the intensity of CO₂ emissions per unit of GDP by 40–45% by 2020, as well as reducing the energy intensity and increasing the share of non-fossil fuel consumption, through regional allocation of emission allowance over China's provinces. Since the realization of China's mitigation target essentially represents a total amount emission allowance allocation problem, an improved zero sum gains data envelopment analysis optimization model, which could deal with the constant total amount resources allocation, is proposed in this study. By utilizing this model and based on several scenarios of China's economic growth, CO₂ emissions, and energy consumption, a new efficient emission allowance allocation scheme on provincial level for China by 2020 is proposed. The allocation results indicate that different provinces have to shoulder different mitigation burdens in terms of emission intensity reduction, energy intensity reduction, and share of non-fossil fuels increase.     

Exploring the driving factors and their mitigation potential in global energy-related CO2 emission

In order to quantify the contribution of the mitigation strategies, an extended Kaya identity has been proposed in this paper for decomposing the various factors that influence the CO₂ emission. To this end, we provided a detailed decomposition of the carbon intensity and energy intensity, which enables the quantification of clean energy development and electrification. The logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) has been applied to the historical data to quantify the contributions of the various factors affecting the CO₂ emissions. Further, the global energy interconnection (GEI) scenario has been introduced for providing a systematic solution to meet the 2°C goal of the Paris Agreement. By combining LMDI with the scenario analysis, the mitigation potential of the various factors for CO₂ emission has been analyzed. Results from the historical data indicate that economic development and population growth contribute the most to the increase in CO₂ emissions, whereas improvement in the power generation efficiency predominantly helps in emission reduction. A numerical analysis, performed for obtaining the projected future carbon emissions, suggests that clean energy development and electrification are the top two factors that can decrease CO₂ emissions, thus showing their great potential for mitigation in the future. Moreover, the carbon capture and storage technology serves as an important supplementary mitigation method.     

Grey relation performance correlations among economics,energy use and carbon dioxide emission in Taiwan

This study explores the inter-relationships among economy, energy and CO₂ emissions of 37 industrial sectors in Taiwan in order to provide insight regarding sustainable development policy making. Grey relation analysis was used to analyse the productivity, aggregate energy consumption, and the use of fuel mix (electricity, coal, oil and gas) in relation to CO₂ emission changes. An innovative evaluative index system was devised to explore grey relation grades among economics, energy and environmental quality. Results indicate that a rapid increase in electricity generation during the past 10 years is the main reason for CO₂ emission increase in Taiwan. The largest CO₂ emitting sectors include iron and steel, transportation, petrochemical materials, commerce and other services. Therefore, it is important to reduce the energy intensity of these sectors by energy conservation, efficiency improvement and adjustment of industrial structure towards high value-added products and services. Economic growth for all industries has a more significant influence, than does total energy consumption, on CO₂ emission increase in Taiwan. It is also important to decouple the energy consumption and production to reduce the impacts of CO₂ on economic growth. Furthermore, most of the sectors examined had increased CO₂ emissions, except for machinery and road transportation. For high energy intensive and CO₂ intensive industries, governmental policies for CO₂ mitigation should be directed towards low carbon fuels as well as towards enhancement of the demand side management mechanism, without loss of the nation's competitiveness.     

Managing urban energy system: A case of Suzhou in China

Managing urban energy system is vital for energy conservation and CO₂ reduction. Integrating energy input–output model with carbon emission pinch analysis, we propose a framework for managing urban energy system. This framework could analyze current energy demands and CO₂ emissions, predict their future possibilities and optimize energy mix of key sectors under CO₂ emission constraints. Key sectors are identified by the energy input–output table from both direct and accumulative perspectives. Moreover, taking Suzhou, a typical manufacturing center and export-oriented city in China, as a case example, energy metabolism of Suzhou in 2020 is predicted using energy input–output model. And three sectors named Coking, Smelting and pressing of metals and Production and supply of electric power are identified to have big effects on CO₂ emissions. Subsequently, energy mix of three identified key sectors is optimized under CO₂ emission constraints by the carbon emission pinch analysis. According to the results, clean energy sources will occupy a great position in Suzhou's future energy demands. And the reuse of wastes as energy sources should be limited to achieve CO₂ mitigation targets. Finally, policy implications of results and future work are discussed.     

Potential for reduction of CO2 emissions and a low-carbon scenario for the Brazilian industrial sector

This study discusses the potential for reducing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from energy use by the Brazilian industrial sector in a low-carbon scenario over a horizon until 2030. It evaluates the main mitigation measures, the quantities of this gas avoided and the respective abatement costs. In relation to a benchmark scenario projected for 2030, the reduction of CO₂ emissions estimated here can reach 43%, by adopting energy-efficiency measures, materials recycling and cogeneration, shifting from fossil fuels to renewables or less polluting energy sources and eliminating the use of biomass from deforestation. The set of measures studied here would bring emissions reductions of nearly 1.5 billion tCO₂ over a period of 20 years (2010–2030). This would require huge investments, but the majority of them would have significant economic return and negative abatement costs. However, in many cases there would be low economic attractiveness and higher abatement costs, thus requiring more effective incentives. Brazil is already carrying out various actions toward the mitigation measures proposed here, but there are still substantial barriers to realize this potential. Therefore, a collective effort from both the public and private sectors is needed for the country to achieve this low-carbon scenario.     

Transport sector CO2 emissions growth in Asia: Underlying factors and policy options

This study analyze the potential factors influencing the growth of transport sector carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in selected Asian countries during the 1980–2005 period by decomposing annual emissions growth into components representing changes in fuel mix, modal shift, per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and population, as well as changes in emission coefficients and transportation energy intensity. We find that changes in per capita GDP, population growth and transportation energy intensity are the main factors driving transport sector CO₂ emission growth in the countries considered. While growth in per capita income and population are responsible for the increasing trend of transport sector CO₂ emissions in China, India, Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand; the decline of transportation energy intensity is driving CO₂ emissions down in Mongolia. Per capita GDP, population and transportation energy intensity effects are all found responsible for transport sector CO₂ emissions growth in Bangladesh, the Philippines and Vietnam. The study also reviews existing government policies to limit CO₂ emissions growth, such as fiscal instruments, fuel economy standards and policies to encourage switching to less emission intensive fuels and transportation modes.     

Comprehensive evaluation of industrial CO2 emission (1989–2004) in Taiwan by input–output structural decomposition

Taiwan currently emits approximately 1% of the world's CO₂—ranking it 22nd among nations. Herein, we use the input–output (I–O) structural decomposition method to examine the changes in CO₂ emission over a 15-year period. By decomposing the CO₂ emission changes into nine factors for the periods of 1989–1994, 1994–1999, and 1999–2004, we have identified the key factors causing the emission changes, as well as the most important trends regarding the industrial development process in Taiwan. The 5-year increment with the largest increase of CO₂ emission was that of 1999–2004, due to the rapid increase of electricity consumption. From the decomposition, the industrial energy coefficient and the CO₂ emission factors were identified as the most important parameters for the determination of the highway, petrochemical materials, iron and steel, the commercial sector, and electric machinery as the major sources of increased CO₂ emission during the past 15 years. From 1989 to 2004, the level of exports and the level of domestic final demand were the largest contributors to the increase in the total increment of CO₂ change. During 1989–2004, the industrial energy coefficient and CO₂ emission factors, being minimally significant during 1989–1994, became extremely important, joining the domestic final demand and the level of exports factors as the major causes of the increase increment of CO₂. This indicates a heavy reliance upon high-energy (and CO₂) intensity for Taiwanese industries; therefore, continuous efforts to improve energy intensity and fuel mix toward lower carbon are important for CO₂ reduction, especially for the electricity and power generation sectors. Relevant strategies for reducing carbon dioxide emissions from major industries are also highlighted.     

Energy efficiency and CO2 emissions in Swedish manufacturing industries

This paper analyses the trends in energy consumption and CO₂ emissions as a result of energy efficiency improvements in Swedish manufacturing industries between 1993 and 2008. Using data at the two-digit level, the performance of this sector is studied in terms of CO₂ emissions, energy consumption, energy efficiency measured as energy intensity, value of production, fuel sources, energy prices and energy taxes. It was found that energy consumption, energy intensity and CO₂ emission intensity, measured as production values, have decreased significantly in the Swedish manufacturing industries during the period studied. The results of the decomposition analysis show that output growth has not required higher energy consumption, leading to a reduction in both energy and CO₂ emission intensities. The role of structural changes has been minor, and the trends of energy efficiency and CO₂ emissions have been similar during the sample period. A stochastic frontier model was used to determine possible factors that may have influenced these trends. The results demonstrate that high energy prices, energy taxes, investments and electricity consumption have influenced the reduction of energy and CO₂ emission intensities, indicating that Sweden has applied an adequate and effective energy policy. The study confirms that it is possible to achieve economic growth and sustainable development whilst also reducing the pressure on resources and energy consumption and promoting the shift towards a low-carbon economy.     

Examining the driving forces for improving China’s CO2 emission intensity using the decomposing method

This paper examines the driving forces for reducing China’s CO₂ emission intensity between 1998 and 2008, utilizing the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) technique. By first grouping the CO₂ emissions into two categories, those arising from activities related to the electric power industry and those from other sources, emission intensity is further broken down into the effects of the CO₂ emission coefficient, energy intensity of power generation, power generation and consumption ratio, electricity intensity of the gross domestic product (GDP), provincial structural change, and the energy intensity of the GDP for other activities. The decomposition results show that improvements in the energy intensity of power generation, electricity intensity of GDP, and energy intensity of GDP for other activities were mainly responsible for the success in reducing China’s CO₂ emission intensity and that activities related to the electric power industry played a key role. It is also revealed that performance varied significantly at the individual province level. The provinces with higher emission levels contributed the most to China’s improvements in CO₂ emission intensity.     

CO2 emissions of Turkish manufacturing industry: A decomposition analysis

In this study, CO₂ emissions of Turkish manufacturing industry are calculated by using the fuel consumption data at ISIC revision 2, four digit level. Study covers 57 industries, for the 1995–2001 period. Log Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method is used to decompose the changes in the CO₂ emissions of manufacturing industry into five components; changes in activity, activity structure, sectoral energy intensity, sectoral energy mix and emission factors. Mainly, it is found that changes in total industrial activity and energy intensity are the primary factors determining the changes in CO₂ emissions during the study period. It is also indicated that among the fuels used, coal is the main determining factor and among the sectors, 3710 (iron and steel basic industries) is the dirtiest sector dominating the industrial CO₂ emissions in the Turkish manufacturing industry.     

Industrial CO2 emissions from energy use in Korea: A structural decomposition analysis

This paper attempts to quantify energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in the industrial sectors of Korea. The sources of the changes in CO₂ emissions for the years 1990–2003 are investigated, in terms of a total of eight factors, through input–output structural decomposition analysis: changes in emission coefficient (caused by shifts in energy intensity and carbon intensity); changes in economic growth; and structural changes (in terms of shifts in domestic final demand, exports, imports of final and intermediate goods, and production technology). The results show that the rate of growth of industrial CO₂ emissions has drastically decreased since the 1998 financial crisis in Korea. The effect on emission reductions due to changes in energy intensity and domestic final demand surged in the second period (1995–2000), while the impact of exports steeply rose in the third period (2000–2003). Of all the individual factors, economic growth accounted for the largest increase in CO₂ emissions. The results of this analysis can be used to infer the potential for emission-reduction in Korea.     

Using LMDI method to analyze the change of China's industrial CO2 emissions from final fuel use: An empirical analysis

Based on time series decomposition of the Log-Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), this paper analyzes the change of industrial carbon emissions from 36 industrial sectors in China over the period 1998–2005. The changes of industrial CO₂ emission are decomposed into carbon emissions coefficients of heat and electricity, energy intensity, industrial structural shift, industrial activity and final fuel shift. Our results clearly show that raw chemical materials and chemical products, nonmetal mineral products and smelting and pressing of ferrous metals account for 59.31% of total increased industrial CO₂ emissions. The overwhelming contributors to the change of China's industrial sectors’ carbon emissions in the period 1998–2005 were the industrial activity and energy intensity; the impact of emission coefficients of heat and electricity, fuel shift and structural shift was relatively small. Over the year 1998–2002, the energy intensity change in some energy-intensive sectors decreased industrial emissions, but increased emissions over the period 2002–2005. The impact of structural shift on emissions have varied considerably over the years without showing any clear trend, and the final fuel shift increased industrial emissions because of the increase of electricity share and higher emissions coefficient. Therefore, raw chemical materials and chemical products, nonmetal mineral products and smelting and pressing of ferrous metals should be among the top priorities for enhancing energy efficiency and driving their energy intensity close to the international advanced level. To some degree, we should reduce the products waste of these sectors, mitigate the growth of demand for their products through avoiding the excessive investment highly related to these sectors, increasing imports or decreasing the export in order to avoid expanding their share in total industrial value added. However, all these should integrate economic growth to harmonize industrial development and CO₂ emission reduction.     

Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

In this paper the LEAP, TIAM-ECN, and GCAM models were applied to evaluate the impact of a variety of climate change control policies (including carbon pricing and emission constraints relative to a base year) on primary energy consumption, final energy consumption, electricity sector development, and CO₂ emission savings of the energy sector in Argentina over the 2010–2050 period. The LEAP model results indicate that if Argentina fully implements the most feasible mitigation measures currently under consideration by official bodies and key academic institutions on energy supply and demand, such as the ProBiomass program, a cumulative incremental economic cost of 22.8 billion US$(2005) to 2050 is expected, resulting in a 16% reduction in GHG emissions compared to a business-as-usual scenario. These measures also bring economic co-benefits, such as a reduction of energy imports improving the balance of trade. A Low CO₂ price scenario in LEAP results in the replacement of coal by nuclear and wind energy in electricity expansion. A High CO₂ price leverages additional investments in hydropower. By way of cross-model comparison with the TIAM-ECN and GCAM global integrated assessment models, significant variation in projected emissions reductions in the carbon price scenarios was observed, which illustrates the inherent uncertainties associated with such long-term projections. These models predict approximately 37% and 94% reductions under the High CO₂ price scenario, respectively. By comparison, the LEAP model, using an approach based on the assessment of a limited set of mitigation options, predicts an 11.3% reduction. The main reasons for this difference include varying assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO₂ storage capacity, and the ability to import bioenergy. An emission cap scenario (2050 emissions 20% lower than 2010 emissions) is feasible by including such measures as CCS and Bio CCS, but at a significant cost. In terms of technology pathways, the models agree that fossil fuels, in particular natural gas, will remain an important part of the electricity mix in the core baseline scenario. According to the models there is agreement that the introduction of a carbon price will lead to a decline in absolute and relative shares of aggregate fossil fuel generation. However, predictions vary as to the extent to which coal, nuclear and renewable energy play a role.     

Environmental and economic assessment of the chemical absorption process in Korea using the LEAP model

CO₂ emission from fossil fuels is a major cause for the global warming effect, but it is hard to remove completely in actuality. Moreover, energy consumption is bound to increase for the continuous economic development of a country that has an industrial formation requiring high-energy demand. Therefore, we need to consider not only a device for CO₂ mitigation but also its impact when a CO₂ mitigation device is applied. The device for CO₂ emission mitigation can be classified into three fields: energy consumption reduction, development of CO₂ removal and recovery technology, and development of alternative energy technology. Among these options, CO₂ removal and recovery technology has a merit that can be applied to a process in the near future. Therefore, research for CO₂ removal and recovery is actively progressing in Korea. In this study, environmental and economic assessment according to the energy policy change for climate change agreement and increase of CO₂ mitigation technology is accomplished, on the bases of operating data for the CO₂ chemical absorption pilot plant that is installed in the Seoul coal steam power plant. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) was used to analyze the alternative scenario, and results were shown quantitatively.     

Identifying key factors and strategies for reducing industrial CO2 emissions from a non-Kyoto protocol member's (Taiwan) perspective

In this study we use Divisia index approach to identify key factors affecting CO₂ emission changes of industrial sectors in Taiwan. The changes of CO₂ emission are decomposed into emission coefficient, energy intensity, industrial structure and economic growth. Furthermore, comparisons with USA, Japan, Germany, the Netherlands and South Korea are made to have a better understanding of emission tendency in these countries and to help formulate our CO₂ reduction strategies for responding to the international calls for CO₂ cuts. The results show that economic growth and high energy intensity were two key factors for the rapid increase of industrial CO₂ emission in Taiwan, while adjustment of industrial structure was the main component for the decrease. Although economic development is important, Taiwan must keep pace with the international trends for CO₂ reduction. Among the most important strategies are continuous efforts to improve energy intensity, fuel mix toward lower carbon, setting targets for industrial CO₂ cuts, and advancing green technology through technology transfer. Also, the clean development mechanism (CDM) is expected to play an important role in the future.     

Economic growth,energy conservation and emissions reduction: A comparative analysis based on panel data for 8 Asian-Pacific countries

This study was conducted to evaluate the causality between energy consumption, GDP growth and carbon emissions for eight Asia-Pacific countries from 1971 to 2005 using the panel data. The results indicate that there are long-run equilibrium relationships between these variables. Additionally, causality from energy consumption to CO₂ emissions was observed generally, but there were some opposite relationships also. Parameter estimations of the panel data model indicate that there are great differences in the carbon emissions, the efficiencies of energy use, carbon emissions of unit GDP and unit energy consumption between developed and developing countries. The base carbon emissions, per capita energy consumption and efficiency of energy use in developing countries are far lower than in developed countries; however, the CO₂ emissions per unit of energy use is higher. Although developing countries may reduce their CO₂ emission per unit energy use, total energy consumption will rise rapidly with economic development. Thus, developing countries must determine how to undergo economic growth while conserving energy and reducing emissions. To respond to global climate change, it is necessary to develop innovative technology for energy use, transform the energy structure and conduct the clean development mechanism.     

Quantification of provincial-level carbon emissions from energy consumption in China

Greenhouse gas emission inventories are useful tools for monitoring air quality and assisting local policy development. This article estimates CO₂ emission inventories from energy consumption and carbon intensities of provinces and municipalities in Mainland China in 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2005–2008 using the IPCC mass balance approach. Results show that China's coal-based energy structure and unique economic development have heavily impacted CO₂ emissions. Fortunately, although coal consumption has increased to over 70% of all fuel use, the share of CO₂ emissions from coal has gradually decreased due to energy consumption restructuring. The switch from coal-dominance to cleaner, renewable energies (wind, solar, natural gas, nuclear power, geothermal, biomass energy) will undoubtedly reduce CO₂ emissions in China. Results also indicate that carbon intensity has improved steadily, as China's economic development introduces new technologies intended to minimize environmental pollution and destruction. Our results suggest that China's CO₂ emissions may not be as high as expected in future, and will gradually lessen.