Electricity demand in Kazakhstan

Properties of electricity demand in transition economies have not been sufficiently well researched mostly due to data limitations. However, information on the properties of electricity demand is necessary for policy makers to evaluate effects of price changes on different consumers and obtain demand forecasts for capacity planning. This study estimates Kazakhstan's aggregate demand for electricity as well as electricity demand in the industrial, service, and residential sectors using regional data. Firstly, our results show that price elasticity of demand in all sectors is low. This fact suggests that there is considerable room for price increases necessary to finance generation and distribution system upgrading. Secondly, we find that income elasticity of demand in the aggregate and all sectoral models is less than unity. Of the three sectors, electricity demand in the residential sector has the lowest income elasticity. This result indicates that policy initiatives to secure affordability of electricity consumption to lower income residential consumers may be required. Finally, our forecast shows that electricity demand may grow at either 3% or 5% per year depending on rates of economic growth and government policy regarding price increases and promotion of efficiency. We find that planned supply increases would be sufficient to cover growing demand only if real electricity prices start to increase toward long-run cost-recovery levels and policy measures are implemented to maintain the current high growth of electricity efficiency.     

Residential electricity demand in Spain: New empirical evidence using aggregate data

This paper presents an empirical analysis on residential demand for electricity. This analysis has been performed using aggregate panel data at the province level for 47 Spanish provinces for the period from 2000 to 2008. For this purpose, we estimated a log–log demand equation for electricity consumption using a dynamic partial adjustment approach. This dynamic demand function has been estimated using a two-step system GMM estimator proposed by Blundell and Bond (1998). The purpose of this empirical analysis is to highlight some of the characteristics of Spanish residential electricity demand. Particular attention has been paid to the influence of price, income, and weather conditions on electricity demand. The estimated short and long-run own price elasticities are negative, as expected, but lower than 1. Furthermore, weather variables have a significant impact on electricity demand.     

Electricity consumption in G7 countries: A panel cointegration analysis of residential demand elasticities

This article applies recently developed panel unit root and panel cointegration techniques to estimate the long-run and short-run income and price elasticities for residential demand for electricity in G7 countries. The panel results indicate that in the long-run residential demand for electricity is price elastic and income inelastic. The study concludes that from an environmental perspective there is potential to use pricing policies in the G7 countries to curtail residential electricity demand, and thus curb carbon emissions, in the long run.     

Consumption of electricity in Punjab: Structure and growth

Electricity has played a pivotal role in the development of Punjab economy. Of late there has been a steep rise in the demand for electricity in the state. The present study undertakes a holistic view of growth of demand for electricity in the state. The technique applied is multiple regression and secondary data is used for the purpose of analysis. The study concludes that demand for electricity in the state is price inelastic but income elastic for majority of consuming sectors. An important policy implication thereof is that price hike will be ineffective in regulating and managing demand unless price is varied in an hourly basis. Therefore, the state has to resort to other demand-side management (DSM) measures, such as improving efficiency of electricity use and its conservation. Considering the high income elasticity of electricity demand, sufficient electricity-generating capacity needs to be created, since demand is expected to grow at an accelerated rate in future. This calls for a comprehensive electricity policy. The study further concludes that in the long run, price-demand as well as income-demand relationship in case of electricity is likely to remain uncertain especially in the post-reform era.     

The demand for residential electricity in South Africa

This paper examines the residential demand for electricity in South Africa as a function of real gross domestic product per capita, and the price of electricity during the period 1978–2005. We make use of the bounds testing approach to cointegration within an autoregressive distributed framework, suggested by Pesaran et al. [2001. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16(3) 289–326]. Following the literature, we use a linear double-logarithmic form using income and price as independent variables in the empirical analysis. In the long run, we find that income is the main determinant of electricity demand, while electricity price is insignificant.     

Turkish aggregate electricity demand: An outlook to 2020

This paper investigates the relationship between Turkish aggregate electricity consumption, GDP and electricity prices in order to forecast future Turkish aggregate electricity demand. To achieve this, an aggregate electricity demand function for Turkey is estimated by applying the structural time series technique to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008. The results suggest that GDP, electricity prices and a UEDT (Underlying Energy Demand Trend) are all important drivers of Turkish electricity demand. The estimated income and price elasticities are found to be 0.17 and −0.11 respectively with the estimated UEDT found to be generally upward sloping (electricity using) but at a generally decreasing rate. Based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish aggregate electricity demand will be somewhere between 259 TWh and 368 TWh in 2020.     

The residential demand for electricity in Australia: an application of the bounds testing approach to cointegration

This paper reports estimates of the long- and short-run elasticities of residential demand for electricity in Australia using the bounds testing procedure to cointegration, within an autoregressive distributive lag framework. In the long run, we find that income and own price are the most important determinants of residential electricity demand, while temperature is significant some of the time and gas prices are insignificant. Our estimates of long-run income elasticity and price elasticity of demand are consistent with previous studies, although they are towards the lower end of existing estimates. As expected, the short-run elasticities are much smaller than the long-run elasticities, and the coefficients on the error-correction coefficients are small consistent with the fact that in the short-run energy appliances are fixed.     

Regional analysis of electricity demand growth

This paper presents the regional electricity demand-forecasting model developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The model forecasts electricity demand and price by sector and by state. Econometric models are estimated for each of the nine census regions separately, using pooled time-series and cross-sectional (state) data. Thus, the estimated demand elasticities used in the forecasting model vary from region to region.The paper also presents and analyzes the most recent forecasts for nine selected states. The results show that electricity demand will continue to grow in all sectors and in all states. However, the rates of growth will be considerably lower than those observed in the 1950s and 1960s. Furthermore, the forecasted rates of growth in electricity demand vary considerably from state to state. The reasons for these variations being the different patterns of projected future growth in population, income, and industrial activities, as well as the different degrees of demand responsiveness to price changes among states. These regional variations of electricity demand growth suggest that forecasts at the national level should not be used as the basis for making energy policies at the regional or state level.     

Industrial electricity consumption in the UK: Past determinants and possible futures

The determinants of industrial electricity demand are examined and it is found that more than 40% of demand growth in the period 1959–1980 was caused by factors either unrelated or only indirectly related to growth in industrial output. Factors such as adjustments in industrial structure, technical change and the decline in self-generation of electricity were all important contributors to demand growth. Together with the methodological problems of using price as an explanatory variable, this suggests that those econometric approaches to demand forecasting for industrial electricity which rely solely on projections of industrial output and price are seriously defective. Output level and price are important in future demand, but current methods are not appropriate to capture their effect and more detailed sectoral work is required, which should take into account structural and technical change and developments in self-generation.     

Estimating short and long-term residential demand for electricity: New evidence from Sri Lanka

This study investigates the short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationship between residential electricity demand and factors influencing demand – per capita income, price of electricity, price of kerosene oil and price of liquefied petroleum gas – using annual data for Sri Lanka for the period, 1960–2007. The study uses unit root, cointegration and error-correction models. The long-run demand elasticities of income, own price and price of kerosene oil (substitute) were estimated to be 0.78, ? 0.62, and 0.14 respectively. The short-run elasticities for the same variables were estimated to be 0.32, ? 0.16 and 0.10 respectively. Liquefied petroleum (LP) gas is a substitute for electricity only in the short-run with an elasticity of 0.09. The main findings of the paper support the following (1) increasing the price of electricity is not the most effective tool to reduce electricity consumption (2) existing subsidies on electricity consumption can be removed without reducing government revenue (3) the long-run income elasticity of demand shows that any future increase in household incomes is likely to significantly increase the demand for electricity and (4) any power generation plans which consider only current per capita consumption and population growth should be revised taking into account the potential future income increases in order to avoid power shortages in the country.     

Aggregate demand for electricity in South Africa: An analysis using the bounds testing approach to cointegration

Electricity demand in South Africa has grown at a very rapid rate over the past decade. As part of reform initiatives to enhance long-term sustainability of the country's electricity industry, South Africa's authorities have in recent years sought to develop an electricity pricing framework that is cost reflective and forms the cornerstone of demand management schemes meant to foster changes in consumption behaviour and enhance efficiency in resource use. The effects of any pricing policy on aggregate electricity consumption will depend on a useful understanding of the factors that influence electricity demand, and the magnitude to which electricity demand responds to changes in such factors. In this context, this paper applies the bounds testing approach to cointegration within an autoregressive distributed lag framework to examine the aggregate demand for electricity in South Africa during the period 1960–2007. The results indicate that in the long run, income is the main determinant of electricity demand. With electricity prices having an insignificant effect on aggregate electricity demand, future pricing policies will need to ensure that electricity prices are cost reflective and enhance efficiency of electricity supply and use.     

Industrial electricity demand in New York State

We will discuss electricity demand in manufacturing industries in upstate New York. Empirical results are presented based on data obtained at the electric utility service area level for the years 1969–1981. The equations are based on a partial adjustment model including relevant input prices and industrial output by SIC group. The estimated coefficients have the expected signs and are for the most part, statistically significant. There is considerable variation in price and output elasticities among SIC groups and between service areas, which suggests that energy policy and industrial policy at the state level should be tailored to specific industries and perhaps to specific subregions within the state. Forecasts of industrial electricity demand are based on assumptions of prices and industrial output growth made by the utility companies themselves. A comparison of these forecasts with those made by the utility companies indicates that electricity demand forecasts are sensitive to the inclusion of alternative fuel prices and to the level of sectoral disaggregation.     

Estimation of residential electricity demand in Hong Kong under electricity charge subsidies

Over the past decade, the Hong Kong (HK) government provided electricity charges subsidies for residential accounts to alleviate the burden of inflation and, later, the burden of economic downturn. In this study, we estimate an econometric model of residential electricity demand and test the existence of a stable long-run relationship for the period 1980–2016, while accounting for the relief measures set out by the HK government since 2008. Empirical results suggest that there exists a long-run relationship among residential electricity consumption, electricity price, income per capita, and weather variables (temperature or cooling degree days). In the absence of electricity charge subsidies, the demand is found to be both price and income inelastic. On the other hand, HK's residential electricity consumers are unresponsive to price and income changes when electricity subsidies are in place. Following its new carbon reduction plan, HK is gradually phasing out coal for electricity generation to replace it mainly with natural gas. Our results suggest that new residential electricity charge subsidies can lessen the effectiveness of6 climate policies aimed at reducing electricity consumption through increases in the electricity price.     

Transport demand for energy: a case study for Kuwait

This paper presents a model for the demand for oil products in the transport sector of Kuwait using a time‐series data for the period 1975–1995. The results indicate that the demand for gasoline is inelastic with respect to price and income in the short and long run. The demand has a short‐run elasticity which approaches unity when it comes to the average fuel economy of the fleet of automobiles which indicate a rapid response to changes in the automobiles technology. Furthermore, the results reveal that diesel fuel consumption is price and income inelastic in the short‐run but exceed perfectly elasticity in the long‐run. As for the case of aviation fuel, the demand is inelastic with respect to the price in the short run but it exceeds unit elasticity with respect to the number of flights landed in Kuwait which indicate that the activity variable is more significant in determining the demand for aviation fuel than its own price. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Natural gas demand in Turkey

On average, energy demand of Turkey is mounting by 8% annually, one of the highest rates in the world. Among primary energy sources, natural gas is the fastest growing one in Turkey. Gas consumption started at 0.5 bcm (billion cubic meters) in 1987 and reached approximately 35 bcm in 2007. Turkish natural gas usage is projected to further increase remarkably in coming years. The present paper focuses the characteristics of this demand and estimates short and long-run price and income elasticities of sectoral natural gas demand in Turkey. The future growth in this demand is also forecasted using an ARIMA modelling and the results are compared with official projections. The paper reveals that natural gas demand elasticities are quite low, meaning that consumers do not respond possible abusive price increases by decreasing their demand or substituting natural gas with other energy sources. Since consumers are prone to monopoly abuse by incumbent, there is a need for market regulation in Turkish natural gas market. Based on forecasts obtained, it is clear that the current official projections do not over/under-estimate natural gas demand although past official projections highly overestimated it.     

Natural gas price elasticities: Variations by region and by sector in the USA

This article's primary objective is to estimate the own-price and cross-price elasticities of demand for natural gas in the residential, commercial and industrial sectors by DOE region in the USA. A simultaneous-equations model was developed and its reduced form was employed for natural gas consumption demand elasticity estimation in conjuction with the instrumental price variables. Data from 1967 to 1978 were used in the estimation, but the 1973 oil embargo effect was separated with the use of a dummy variable. The demand for natural gas was much more price elastic in the long run than in the short run, and the industrial sector was more less price sensitive than others. However, there were significant interregional and intersectoral variations among the elasticities estimated.     

The relationship between electricity consumption,electricity prices and GDP in Pakistan

This study analyzes the relationship among electricity consumption, its price and real GDP at the aggregate and sectoral level in Pakistan. Using annual data for the period 1960–2008, the study finds the presence of unidirectional causality from real economic activity to electricity consumption. In particular, growth in output in commercial, manufacturing and agricultural sectors tend to increase electricity consumption, while in residential sector, growth in private expenditures is the cause of rising electricity consumption. The study concludes that electricity production and management needs to be better integrated with overall economic planning exercises. This is essential to avoid electricity shortfalls and unplanned load shedding.     

Quantifying the effect of renewable generation on day–ahead electricity market prices: The Spanish case

The penetration of renewable generation has grown since the electricity sector has been deregulated. To account for that, this paper proposes a methodology to estimate the downward effect of renewable generation participation upon the day-ahead electricity market prices, since such an effect is quite intuitive observing the merit order of the generating units. The European Electricity Market Matching Algorithm (EMMA) is currently based on Euphemia (Price Coupling of Regions), though there are several differences among countries across Europe. The new algorithm proposed uses market orders, which include aggregate hourly orders such as aggregate supply and demand curves. These orders are simple orders and the marginal price is affected by complex orders, especially by the minimum income condition (MIC) used in the Iberian Electricity Market and considered in our proposed algorithm. A case study of the Spanish day-ahead electricity market is evaluated for 2015, for which a daily generation sample is composed of 16 days in 2015. The sample is created following the characteristics of thermal production, renewable production and inframarginal production. The conclusions are drawn comparing the simulations of the real marginal prices and the new marginal prices after incorporating renewable generation participation into the aggregate demand curve at the maximum price.     

Multiplicative structural decomposition analysis of aggregate embodied energy and emission intensities

Aggregate intensity indicators, such as the ratio of a country's energy and emissions to its GDP, are often used by researchers and policymakers to study energy and environmental performance. This paper analyzes the relationship between energy (or emissions) and value added (or GDP) from a different viewpoint, namely from the demand rather than the production perspective, using the input–output (I–O) framework. The aggregate embodied intensity (AEI), defined as the ratio of embodied energy (or emissions) to embodied value added, can be defined at the aggregate, final demand category and sectoral levels. The total aggregate intensity can be presented as a weighted sum of the AEIs at the final demand category or sectoral level. Changes of the AEI at different levels can be decomposed to identify the driving forces using multiplicative SDA. A study using the latest 2007 and 2012 datasets of China indicates that (a) its aggregate intensity of CO₂ emissions was mainly determined by the AEI in investment and (b) the emission intensity effect generally contributed the most to the AEI ratio changes at different levels. The proposed framework can be applied to other aggregate intensity indicators and extended to multi-country/region analysis.     

Household energy demand in Kenya: An application of the linear approximate almost ideal demand system (LA-AIDS)

This paper estimates price and fuel expenditure elasticities of demand by applying the linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand system (LA-AIDS) to 3665 households sampled across Kenya in 2009. The results indicate that motor spirit premium (MSP), automotive gas oil (AGO) and lubricants are price elastic while fuel wood, kerosene, charcoal, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and electricity are price inelastic. Kerosene is income elastic while fuel wood, charcoal, LPG, electricity, MSP and AGO are income inelastic. The results also reveal fuel stack behaviour, that is, multiple fuel use among the households. Main policy implications of the results include increasing the penetration of alternative fuels as well as provision of more fiscal incentives to increase usage of cleaner fuels. This not withstanding however, the household income should be increased beyond a certain point for the household to completely shift and use a new fuel.