Reduction of electricity use in Swedish industry and its impact on national power supply and European CO2 emissions

Decreased energy use is crucial for achieving sustainable energy solutions. This paper presents current and possible future electricity use in Swedish industry. Non-heavy lines of business (e.g. food, vehicles) that use one-third of the electricity in Swedish industry are analysed in detail. Most electricity is used in the support processes pumping and ventilation, and manufacturing by decomposition. Energy conservation can take place through e.g. more efficient light fittings and switching off ventilation during night and weekends. By energy-carrier switching, electricity used for heat production is replaced by e.g. fuel. Taking technically possible demand-side measures in the whole lines of business, according to energy audits in a set of factories, means a 35% demand reduction. A systems analysis of power production, trade, demand and conservation was made using the MODEST energy system optimisation model, which uses linear programming and considers the time-dependent impact on demand for days, weeks and seasons. Electricity that is replaced by district heating from a combined heat and power (CHP) plant has a dual impact on the electricity system through reduced demand and increased electricity generation. Reduced electricity consumption and enhanced cogeneration in Sweden enables increased electricity export, which displaces coal-fired condensing plants in the European electricity market and helps to reduce European CO₂ emissions. Within the European emission trading system, those electricity conservation measures should be taken that are more cost-efficient than other ways of reducing CO₂ emissions. The demand-side measures turn net electricity imports into net export and reduce annual operation costs and net CO₂ emissions due to covering Swedish electricity demand by 200 million euros and 6 Mtonne, respectively. With estimated electricity conservation in the whole of Swedish industry, net electricity exports would be larger and net CO₂ emissions would be even smaller.     

Prospects of gas supply until 2020 in Europe and its relevance for the power sector in the context of emission trading

With the liberalization of energy markets and the introduction of an emission trading system, electricity production by gas combined cycle power plants has significantly increased in the European Union in recent years. Reasons for the significant increase include the short construction time for gas power plants and the favourable investment costs. One further advantage is the relatively low CO₂ emissions of gas power plants. Thus, a key option for reducing emissions is seen in the increased use of gas for power production. Model calculations from various models show that an increase of gas power production is expected. In general, however, the interdependencies of the different markets (gas, electricity and CO₂) as well as the country-specific gas supply options, determined by pipelines and liquefied natural gas (LNG), are neglected. As the competitiveness of gas power plants mainly depends on the availability of gas and the gas price, a novel model that integrates electricity, gas, and CO₂- emission markets assuming perfect competition will be presented. The objective of this paper is to analyse the long-term relevance of the gas market for the electricity sector in the European Union in the context of CO₂-emission reduction targets.     

Internalisation of external cost in the power generation sector: Analysis with Global Multi-regional MARKAL model

The Global MARKAL-Model (GMM), a multi-regional “bottom-up” partial equilibrium model of the global energy system with endogenous technological learning, is used to address impacts of internalisation of external costs from power production. This modelling approach imposes additional charges on electricity generation, which reflect the costs of environmental and health damages from local pollutants (SO₂, NO_x) and climate change, wastes, occupational health, risk of accidents, noise and other burdens. Technologies allowing abatement of pollutants emitted from power plants are rapidly introduced into the energy system, for example, desulphurisation, NO_x removal, and CO₂ scrubbers. The modelling results indicate substantial changes in the electricity production system in favour of natural gas combined cycle, nuclear power and renewables induced by internalisation of external costs and also efficiency loss due to the use of scrubbers. Structural changes and fuel switching in the electricity sector result in significant reduction of emissions of both local pollution and CO₂ over the modelled time period. Strong decarbonisation impact of internalising local externalities suggests that ancillary benefits can be expected from policies directly addressing other issues then CO₂ mitigation. Finally, the detailed analysis of the total generation cost of different technologies points out that inclusion of external cost in the price of electricity increases competitiveness of non-fossil generation sources and fossil power plants with emission control.     

LCI (Life cycle inventory) analysis of fuels and electricity generation in Singapore

This article offers a unique three-stage approach in LCI analysis for generating the environmental profile of electricity generation in Singapore. The first stage focuses on fuels delivered to Singapore, next on electricity generated from various types of power production plants. The third stage integrates the entire life cycle study. The final gate-to-gate results show that the total CO₂ emissions from the national grid are 455.6 kg CO₂ per MWh without any loss in transmission and 467.0 kg CO₂ per MWh with 2.5% losses. The results for the entire cradle-to-gate energy production are: 586.3 kg CO₂ per MWh without considering any losses and 601.0 kg CO₂ per MWh with 2.5% transmission loss. For the rest of the LCI, the cradle-to-gate results (per MWh) are kg 0.19 CO (carbon monoxide), 0.06 kg N₂O (nitrous oxide), 1.94–1.99 kg NO_x (nitrogen oxides), 2.94–3.01 kg SO_x (sulphur oxides), 0.064–0.066 kg VOC (volatile organic compounds) and 0.078–0.080 kg PM (particulate matters). From gate-to-gate, the results are 0.12 kg CO, 0.0016 kg N₂O, 1.42–1.46 kg NO_x, 2.56–2.62 kg SO_x, 0.033–0.034 kg VOC and 0.067–0.069 kg PM. Emissions of CO₂ from energy generation, climate change mitigation and policies for energy security are also discussed.     

Sustainable development of Turkey: Deployment of geothermal resources for carbon capture,utilization, and storage

As a developing country, Turkey’s sustainable development objectives converge on robust and sustainable economic development. The increase in its energy and electricity demand is attributed to the growth of population, urbanization, and industrialization parallel to economic and social growth. Instead of fulfilling the obligation to protect the environment arising from international agreements and achieving desired sustainable development, the dependency on imported fossil fuel in electrical energy production and energy-intensive economic growth results in intensified CO₂ emission as well as ironically negative economic output. Therefore, Turkey is forced to exploit its indigenous sources such as coal (which unfortunately increases atmospheric Green House Gas “GHG” emissions) and renewable resources. However, high GHG emission – mainly CO_{2 –} of Turkey’s coal power plants impairs deployment of indigenous sources for power generation. Indeed, there is a necessity of technical approaches for higher heat extraction efficiencies and mitigation of high concentration of energy-related CO₂ emission. Admittedly, “Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS)” employing conventional hydrothermal resources offers highly efficient heat extraction, geological CO₂ sequestration, and utilization of CO₂ for power generation rather than considering CO₂ as an effluent. Although there are research gaps and lack of field scale experiment, the economic and environmental viability of implementing CCUS in Turkey can be improved by pilot or field scale projects whereby the presence of these projects commences technological and experimental advances in capturing CO₂ either from geothermal power plants or indigenous coal power plants, transporting it to the proven geothermal geologic site, and generating power. Apart from this, the “CO_{2 –} Plume Geothermal Systems (CPG)” compared to unconventional and conventional geothermal systems would commit vigorous potential for continual improvement in economic feasibility of CCUS without a guaranteed return on power generation investments in Turkey. Hence, legislations concerning incentives in CCUS would foster further improvements in the deployment of geothermal resources to pursue sustainable development in Turkey.     

The potential impacts of climate-change policy on freshwater use in thermoelectric power generation

Climate change policy involving a price on carbon would change the mix of power plants and the amount of water they withdraw and consume to generate electricity. We analyze what these changes could entail for electricity generation in the United States under four climate policy scenarios that involve different costs for emitting CO₂ and different technology options for reducing emissions out to the year 2030. The potential impacts of the scenarios on the U.S. electric system are modeled using a modified version of the U.S. National Energy Modeling System and water-use factors for thermoelectric power plants derived from electric utility data compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Under all the climate-policy scenarios, freshwater withdrawals decline 2–14% relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario of no U.S. climate policy. Furthermore, water use decreases as the price on CO₂ under the climate policies increases. At relatively high carbon prices (>$50/tonne CO₂), however, retrofitting coal plants to capture CO₂ increases freshwater consumption compared to BAU in 2030. Our analysis suggests that climate policies and a carbon price will reduce both electricity generation and freshwater withdrawals compared to BAU unless a substantial number of coal plants are retrofitted to capture CO₂.     

External costs from electricity generation of China up to 2030 in energy and abatement scenarios

This paper presents estimated external costs of electricity generation in China under different scenarios of long-term energy and environmental policies. Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) software is used to develop a simple model of electricity demand and to estimate gross electricity generation in China up to 2030 under these scenarios. Because external costs for unit of electricity from fossil fuel will vary in different government regulation periods, airborne pollutant external costs of SO₂, NO_x, PM₁₀, and CO₂ from fired power plants are then estimated based on emission inventories and environmental cost for unit of pollutants, while external costs of non-fossil power generation are evaluated with external cost for unit of electricity. The developed model is run to study the impact of different energy efficiency and environmental abatement policy initiatives that would reduce total energy requirement and also reduce external costs of electricity generation. It is shown that external costs of electricity generation may reduce 24–55% with three energy policies scenarios and may further reduce by 20.9–26.7% with two environmental policies scenarios. The total reduction of external costs may reach 58.2%.     

Assessing the effects of CO2 price caps on electricity investments—A real options analysis

This paper uses real options modeling to assess the impact of different climate change policy instruments on investment, profits and cumulative emissions in the electricity sector. Even though CO₂ price caps or “safety valves” have been suggested as methods to limit uncertainty emanating from fluctuating prices of CO₂ permits that would hurt the industry's profit and thereby also energy security, our analysis shows that price caps set at a too low level are detrimental to the adoption of e.g. modern biomass-fired capacity as a replacement for existing coal-fired power plants. We therefore conduct a series of experiments with different policy scenarios to analyze under which regime emissions are most effectively reduced. With respect to CO₂ price uncertainty, it turns out that even for moderately rising CO₂ prices, fluctuations frequently lead to investment into carbon capture and storage (CCS), while investment is often not triggered in the face of deterministic CO₂ prices.     

Electricity consumption and CO2 capture potential in Spain

In this paper, different electricity demand scenarios for Spain are presented. Population, income per capita, energy intensity and the contribution of electricity to the total energy demand have been taken into account in the calculations. Technological role of different generation technologies, i.e. coal, nuclear, renewable, combined cycle (CC), combined heat and power (CHP) and carbon capture and storage (CCS), are examined in the form of scenarios up to 2050. Nine future scenarios corresponding to three electrical demands and three options for new capacity: minimum cost of electricity, minimum CO₂ emissions and a criterion with a compromise between CO₂ and cost (CO₂-cost criterion) have been proposed. Calculations show reduction in CO₂ emissions from 2020 to 2030, reaching a maximum CO₂ emission reduction of 90% in 2050 in an efficiency scenario with CCS and renewables. The contribution of CCS from 2030 is important with percentage values of electricity production around 22–28% in 2050. The cost of electricity (COE) increases up to 25% in 2030, and then this value remains approximately constant or decreases slightly.     

Carbon intensity of electricity in ASEAN: Drivers,performance and outlook

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), with its ten member countries, has a total population exceeding 600 million. Its energy-related CO₂ emissions have been growing and in 2013 amounted to 3.6% of total global emissions. About 40% of ASEAN's energy-related CO₂ emissions are currently attributable to electricity production. In view of this high share, we study the CO₂ emissions of ASEAN's electricity production sector with a focus on the aggregate emission intensity (ACI) given by the level of CO₂ emissions for each unit of electricity produced. Drivers of ACI are analysed for individual countries and spatial analysis is conducted by comparing factors contributing to differences between the ACIs of individual countries and that of the ASEAN average. Arising from these analyses and in light of the current developments, it is concluded that drastic actions need to be taken both at the national and regional levels in order to reduce growth in the region's electricity-related CO₂ emissions. Two key policy issues, namely overcoming national circumstances to improve electricity generation mix and improving power generation efficiency, are further discussed.     

Estimating marginal CO2 emissions rates for national electricity systems

The carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions reduction afforded by a demand-side intervention in the electricity system is typically assessed by means of an assumed grid emissions rate, which measures the CO₂ intensity of electricity not used as a result of the intervention. This emissions rate is called the “marginal emissions factor” (MEF). Accurate estimation of MEFs is crucial for performance assessment because their application leads to decisions regarding the relative merits of CO₂ reduction strategies. This article contributes to formulating the principles by which MEFs are estimated, highlighting the strengths and weaknesses in existing approaches, and presenting an alternative based on the observed behaviour of power stations. The case of Great Britain is considered, demonstrating an MEF of 0.69 kgCO₂/kW h for 2002–2009, with error bars at +/−10%. This value could reduce to 0.6 kgCO₂/kW h over the next decade under planned changes to the underlying generation mix, and could further reduce to approximately 0.51 kgCO₂/kW h before 2025 if all power stations commissioned pre-1970 are replaced by their modern counterparts. Given that these rates are higher than commonly applied system-average or assumed “long term marginal” emissions rates, it is concluded that maintenance of an improved understanding of MEFs is valuable to better inform policy decisions.     

CO2 emissions from electricity generation in seven Asia-Pacific and North American countries: A decomposition analysis

The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method of complete decomposition is used to examine the role of three factors (electricity production, electricity generation structure and energy intensity of electricity generation) affecting the evolution of CO₂ emissions from electricity generation in seven countries. These seven countries together generated 58% of global electricity and they are responsible for more than two-thirds of global CO₂ emissions from electricity generation in 2005. The analysis shows production effect as the major factor responsible for rise in CO₂ emissions during the period 1990–2005. The generation structure effect also contributed in CO₂ emissions increase, although at a slower rate. In contrary, the energy intensity effect is responsible for modest reduction in CO₂ emissions during this period. Over the 2005–2030 period, production effect remains the key factor responsible for increase in emissions and energy intensity effect is responsible for decrease in emissions. Unlike in the past, generation structure effect contributes significant decrease in emissions. However, the degree of influence of these factors affecting changes in CO₂ emissions vary from country to country. The analysis also shows that there is a potential of efficiency improvement of fossil-fuel-fired power plants and its associated co-benefits among these countries.     

Metal requirements of low-carbon power generation

Today, almost 70% of the electricity is produced from fossil fuels and power generation accounts for over 40% of global CO₂ emissions. If the targets to reduce climate change are to be met, substantial reductions in emissions are necessary. Compared to other sectors emission reductions in the power sector are relatively easy to achieve because it consists mainly of point-sources. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and the use of low-carbon alternative energy sources are the two categories of options to reduce CO₂ emissions. However, for both options additional infrastructure and equipment is needed. This article compares CO₂ emissions and metal requirements of different low-carbon power generation technologies on the basis of Life Cycle Assessment. We analyze the most critical output (CO₂) and the most critical input (metals) in the same methodological framework. CO₂ emissions and metal requirements are compared with annual global emissions and annual production for different metals. It was found that all technologies are very effective in reducing CO₂ emissions. However, CCS and especially non-fossil technologies are substantially more metal intensive than existing power generation. A transition to a low-carbon based power generation would require a substantial upscaling of current mining of several metals.     

Decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions from electricity generation in China

Electricity generation in China mainly depends on coal and its products, which has led to the increase in CO₂ emissions. This paper intends to analyze the current status of CO₂ emissions from electricity generation in China during the period 1991–2009, and apply the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) technique to find the nature of the factors influencing the changes in CO₂ emissions. The main results as follows: (1) CO₂ emission from electricity generation has increased from 530.96 Mt in 1991 to 2393.02 Mt in 2009, following an annual growth rate of 8.72%. Coal products is the main fuel type for thermal power generation, which accounts for more than 90% CO₂ emissions from electricity generation. (2) This paper also presents CO₂ emissions factor of electricity consumption, which help calculate CO₂ emission from final electricity consumption. (3) In China, the economic activity effect is the most important contributor to increase CO₂ emissions from electricity generation, but the electricity generation efficiency effect plays the dominant role in decreasing CO₂ emissions.     

Development of a scalable infrastructure model for planning electricity generation and CO2 mitigation strategies under mandated reduction of GHG emission

In a power-generation system, power plants as major CO₂ sources may be widely separated, so they must be connected into a comprehensive network to manage both electricity and CO₂ simultaneously and efficiently. In this study, a scalable infrastructure model is developed for planning electricity generation and CO₂ mitigation (EGCM) strategies under the mandated reduction of GHG emission. The EGCM infrastructure model is applied to case studies of Korean energy and CO₂ scenarios in 2020; these cases consider combinations of prices of carbon credit and total electricity demand fulfilled by combustion power plants. The results highlight the importance of systematic planning for a scalable infrastructure by examining the sensitivity of the EGCM infrastructure. The results will be useful both to help decision makers establish a power-generation plan, and to identify appropriate strategies to respond to climate change.     

Full-energy-chain analysis of greenhouse gas emissions for solar thermal electric power generation systems

Renewable energy generation of electricity is advocated as a means of reducing carbon dioxide emissions associated with the generation from fossil fuels. Whilst it is true that renewable sources do not generate significant carbon dioxide whilst producing electricity, as with fossil-fuelled plants they do embody significant emissions in their materials of construction. The “full-chain” environmental impacts of wind, hydro, solar-thermal and photovoltaic conversion are quite different and the likely trend in future reduction of embodied energy of next generation systems reflects the relative maturity of each technology. There has been much recent development of solar thermal electricity generation options for which there is a wide divergence in embodied CO₂ emissions.     

Energy efficiency,CO2 emission performance and technology gaps in fossil fuel electricity generation in Korea: A meta-frontier non-radial directional distance functionanalysis

This paper proposes a meta-frontier non-radial directional distance function to model energy and CO₂ emission performance in electricity generation. This approach allows for the consideration of the group heterogeneity of electricity generation, non-radial slacks, and undesirable outputs simultaneously. We extend several standardized indices to measure total-factor energy efficiency, CO₂ emission performance, and technology gaps in electricity generation. We estimate the potential reductions in energy use and CO₂ emissions under different technology assumptions. We conduct an empirical analysis of fossil fuel electricity generation in Korea by using the proposed approach. The results indicate that coal-fired power plants show higher levels of total-factor energy efficiency and CO₂ emission performance than oil-fired ones. Under the meta-frontier technology assumption, coal-fired power plants show a smaller technology gap than oil-fired ones. This suggests that the Korean government should promote technological innovation to reduce technology gaps for oil-fired plants, thereby improving energy and CO₂ emission performance and meeting emission reduction targets in the electricity generation industry.     

Electricity sector reforms in four Latin-American countries and their impact on carbon dioxide emissions and renewable energy

This paper analyzes carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions related to energy consumption for electricity generation in four Latin-American countries in the context of the liberalization process. From 1990 to 2006, power plants based on renewable energy sources decreased its share in power installed capacity, and the carbon index defined as CO₂ emission by unit of energy for electricity production stayed almost constant for all countries with the exception of Colombia, where the index reduced due to increase in hydroelectricity generation in the last years. The paper also presents a new set of policies to promote renewable energy sources that have been developed in the four countries. The paper concludes that restructuring did not bring about environmental benefits related to a decrease in CO₂ emissions because this depend on the existence of committed policies, and dedicated institutional and regulatory frameworks.     

Greenhouse gas emissions from current and enhanced policies of China until 2030: Can emissions peak before 2030?

In June 2015, China announced its post-2020 reduction targets, its central element being the intention to peak CO₂ emissions by 2030 or earlier. China has implemented several policies to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study provides emission projections for China up to 2030 given current policies and a selected set of enhanced policies, and compares the results with projected CO₂ emission trajectories that are consistent with the announced target for 2030. The projections are based on existing scenarios and energy system and land use model calculations. We project that the 2030 CO₂ emission level consistent with a peak in CO₂ emissions by 2030 ranges from 11.3 to 11.8 GtCO₂. The corresponding total GHG emission level ranges from 13.5 to 14.0 GtCO₂e in 2030. Current policies are likely not to be sufficient to achieve the 2030 targets, as our projected total GHG emission level under current policies ranges from 14.7 to 15.4 GtCO₂e by 2030. However, an illustrative set of enhancement policy measures, all of which are related to national priorities, leads to projected GHG emission levels from 13.1 to 13.7 GtCO₂e by 2030 – and thus below the levels necessary for peaking CO₂ emissions before 2030.     

Analysis of the impact of electricity grid interconnection between Korea and Japan—Feasibility study for energy network in Northeast Asia

This study analyzes the impact of an electricity grid interconnection between Korea and Japan on their energy systems. Both countries seriously consider energy security as the most important policy issue because of a lack of domestic energy resources. In addition, public concern for the environment is recently rising up in response to the global warming. Electricity grid interconnection has strong potential to cope with such complicated problems cost-effectively. We have developed the interconnection model, which includes the electricity grid interconnection between the electricity sectors of Korea and Japan, considering both technological and economic efficiency. The result of the study reveals the significant cost-effectiveness of the interconnection, in particular, under stringent condition such as nuclear phase-out in Japan and CO₂ emission target in Korea and Japan. In the case that Japan's nuclear power plants will be phased out, the interconnection attains further cost reduction of constructing substitutive thermal power plants. On the other hand, when Korea and Japan set a joint CO₂ emission target, it achieves the emission target more efficiently than they reduce the emission individually.