交通运输业能耗现状及未来走势分析

低碳经济要求交通运输有效、合理地使用能源,优化配置各种交通工具,降低能耗。近年来,我国交通运输业能耗增长率总体上高于全社会能耗增长率,占全社会能耗比重基本维持在7.5%左右。各种运输方式的能耗主要集中在油耗上,2007年交通运输业汽煤柴3种油耗叠加在一起,占全社会油耗比重近70%。交通运输中电能利用效率较高,节电效果好于全社会,电耗占全社会电耗比重从2002年的2.07%降至2007年的1.63%,但占全国交通运输能耗比重仅10%左右,能耗结构不合理现象并未得到改善。2008年国家铁路单位运输工作量综合能耗比上年降低3.1%,2009年我国铁路电气化率达到41.9%,铁路能耗结构出现根本性改善和优化,开始转变为以电耗为主。公路运输油耗总量呈快速增长趋势,百吨公里油耗指标呈稳中略升态势,节能空间和潜能较大。水运(含港口)能耗2004年之前呈上升趋势,之后下降趋势明显,约占交通运输业总能耗的15%。民航每吨公里油耗从2002年的0.364kg降至2007年的0.309kg,航油消耗增长率基本维持在12%上下,有较为明显的减弱趋势。未来10年,我国交通运输能源消耗总量将进一步攀升,虽然能耗结构将得到一定程度优化,电耗比重会迅速增长,但由于公路能耗在交通运输能耗中占有绝对比重,故难以从根本上改善交通运输以油耗为主的结构特点。我国交通运输业应逐步调整到以铁路为主导的各种交通方式协调发展的模式上来,最大限度地降低运输业油耗在整个交通运输行业中的比重,"以电代油"。     

Estimation of animal and olive solid wastes in Jordan and their potential as a supplementary energy source: An overview

Biomass is a potential source of energy that can reduce our dependency on oil as the main source of energy. In addition to municipal solid waste, animal and olive wastes are the main sources of organic waste in Jordan. In 2005, there were more than 2.4 million heads of sheep, about 72 thousand cows, and 40 million hens being raised in farms distributed in all governorates of Jordan. These animals produce 5.3 million tons (as exerted) of solid waste per year. If these quantities can be effectively collected they may constitute a valuable source of energy. This paper is aiming to estimate the amounts of animal and solid wastes generated in Jordan and their energy potential.The total amount of BOD from animal waste is estimated at 200,000 tons per year. Significant quantities of organic waste can also be collected from olive mills distributed in the country. This waste known locally as “Jift” is currently being collected and used for heating during the winter. The amount of olive waste produced in 2005 was about 27,000 tons. The potential for energy recovery from these wastes was investigated. Assuming an overall waste collection efficiency of 70%, the total heating value of these wastes was found to be 6600 million MJ. This quantity is equivalent to 157 thousand tons of oil equivalent (toe). This quantity represents 84% of Jordan's local crude oil and natural gas production. However, it only represents 2% of the total primary energy consumption of 7187 thousand toe. In addition, the scattering of farms and olive mills in the country will make the collection of their waste costly. Therefore, any potential project for energy recovery from animal and olive wastes in a centralized plant may have low economic merit; however, its environmental benefits are tangible. Decentralized collection and processing of these wastes may be a better option.     

Potential contribution of bioethanol fuel to the transport sector of Vojvodina

The Autonomous Province of Vojvodina is an Autonomous Province in Serbia and it is an energy-deficient country. The indigenous reserves of oil and gas are limited and the country is heavily dependent on the import of oil. The oil import bill is a serious strain on the country's economy and has been deteriorating the balance of payments situation. The country has become increasingly more dependent on fossil fuels and its energy security hangs on the fragile supply of imported oil that is subject to disruptions and price volatility. The transport sector has a 26% share in the total commercial energy consumption in Vojvodina. About 0.62 million tons of gasoline were consumed by this sector in 2008. Gasoline consumption in the transport sector is also a major source of environmental degradation especially in urban areas. Consequently, Vojvodina needs to develop indigenous, environment-friendly energy resources, such as bioethanol, to meet its transport sector's energy needs. Vojvodina produces about 3 million tons of sugar beet every year. There is a vast potential for bioethanol production from molasses of sugar beet in the country. Bioethanol can be used in transport sector after blending with gasoline, in order to minimize gasoline consumption and associated economical and environmental impacts. This paper presents the assessment of the potential contribution of bioethanol in the transport sector of Vojvodina. It is concluded that 20% of annual gasoline consumption in transport sector could be met from ethanol by the year 2026.     

俄罗斯油气资源开发及出口贸易进展述评

俄罗斯是世界油气大国,拥有丰富的石油天然气自然资源,集中了全球1/3的天然气和12%的石油资源,油气勘探开发已有140多年的历史,在世界石油格局中占有举足轻重的地位。2009年,俄罗斯石油产量4.94×108t,天然气产量5560×108m3,高居世界榜首;石油(含凝析气)出口量为2.474×108t。近20年来俄罗斯一直保持着100%的石油储量替代率,2005年以来每年发现的新增石油储量均超过当年产量。俄天然气工业保持着完整统一的经营体制,俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)生产的天然气占俄天然气总产量的80%以上,从而使全国天然气产量基本保持稳定。俄原油出口贸易2/3在欧洲,其次是独联体等国家。石油出口50%以上靠油轮海运,1/3靠管道输送,靠铁路运送的不到出口总量的5%。成品油和石化深加工等高附加值产品的出口在能源出口中的比例将不断增加。鉴于亚太地区石油市场的庞大以及俄罗斯的能源外交战略,今后亚太市场将是俄石油出口的重点研究方向。俄罗斯《2010～2030年国家石油天然气工业经济发展长期规划》对俄本国、欧亚和世界能源市场的发展将产生重要的影响。     

未来我国石油供需矛盾及其解决对策

我国对石油的需求持续攀升,而国内石油产量一直保持缓慢增长,导致石油对外依存度逐年上升。假定未来我国石油消费量等于石油需求量,国内生产总值每年以7.177%的速度增长,石油需求弹性保持在0.5的水平,采用情景分析法、能源需求弹性法和时间序列法对我国未来几年的石油需求、供给进行预测。预测结果表明,我国未来几年石油供需缺口将越来越大,2020年会达到约3.9×108t,形势很不乐观。鉴于此,建议首先要立足国内,鼓励低品位石油资源开发,保障石油基本供应;其次要放眼海外,调整战略重点,弥补我国石油供需缺口,三大石油公司应在稳定中亚、非洲市场的基础上,大力进军南美、中东和亚太市场,加强海外油气合作,实现海外规模化经营;同时要调整能源结构,发展清洁能源,缓解国内石油供需矛盾;另外要提高能源使用效率,减少能源整体需求;还应该循序渐进、有计划分阶段地建立适合我国具体情况的完备的战略石油储备体系,并尽快出台石油储备法。     

Renewable energy and coal use in Turkey

Turkey becomes more dependent on foreign countries for fulfilling its energy needs day by day. While 77% of the overall primary energy consumption in 1970 was met by the domestic energy sources, this percentage decreased to 28% in 2003. As for the electricity production, while 89% of the produced electricity was produced by using the domestic sources, this percentage decreased to 68% in 1970 and 44% in 2003. The percentage of dependence on foreign countries increased year by year and reached 56% in 2003. The energy sources of Turkey are renewable energy sources and coal. If both of these energy sources are used effectively, Turkey will have a capacity to produce its overall electricity production using its own sources. The incorrect policies applied in Turkey introduced oil as a primary energy source for electricity production in 1970s and Turkey defrayed the cost of this wrong application severely by oil crisis. After 2000, natural gas, which was completely imported, was introduced as an energy source and its share in electricity production reached 45%. It is vital for Turkey to question this situation in order to ensure a sustainable development using reliable energy sources.     

美国“能源独立”战略及影响分析

历届美国政府都将“能源独立”作为政府孜孜以求的理想和目标.近年来,由于美国油气产量,尤其是页岩气等非常规油气产量的大幅增长,同时国际金融危机导致美国石油需求减缓甚至负增长,美国“能源独立”战略取得了显著进展.石油对外依存度出现拐点,并逐步摆脱了对中东地区石油的依赖,能源自给率逐渐提高,2011年达到81.4％.美国经济将因能源成本优势而加速复苏,贸易赤字大幅削减,并进一步吸引国际资本回流.北美正在成为世界能源供应版图中隆起的板块,将在一定程度上削弱中东地区能源的战略地位,并深刻影响地缘政治和全球经济格局.以中印为代表的发展中国家将成为全球,特别是中东能源消费的主力.未来围绕石油的核心矛盾将从OPEC与OECD之间的利益冲突,逐步转移到新兴经济体与OPEC之间的供需稳定问题上.全球能源格局调整将使我国能源发展和能源安全面临更为严峻的挑战.我国应加快推进和完善石油战略储备体系,积极推动“走出去”战略,强化全球能源供应能力建设,加大非常规能源勘探开发的科技投入,同时要大力发展清洁/替代能源,大幅提高能源科用效率.     

Potential contribution of ethanol fuel to the transport sector of Pakistan

Pakistan is an energy-deficient country. The indigenous reserves of oil and gas are limited and the country is heavily dependent on the import of oil. The oil import bill is a serious strain on the country's economy and has been deteriorating the balance of payments situation. The country has become increasingly more dependent on fossil fuels and its energy security hangs on the fragile supply of imported oil that is subject to disruptions and price volatility. The transport sector has a 28% share in the total commercial energy consumption in Pakistan. About 1.15 million tonnes of gasoline was consumed by this sector during 2005–2006. The gasoline consumption in the transport sector is also a major source of environmental degradation especially in urban areas. Consequently, Pakistan needs to develop indigenous, environment-friendly energy resources, such as ethanol, to meet its transport sector's energy needs. Pakistan produces about 54 million tonnes of sugarcane every year. The estimated production potential of ethanol from molasses is about 500 million liters per annum. Ethanol can be used in the transport sector after blending with gasoline, in order to minimize the gasoline consumption and associated economical and environmental impacts. This paper presents the assessment of the potential contribution of ethanol in the transport sector of Pakistan. It is concluded that 5–10% of the annual gasoline consumption in transport sector could be met from ethanol by the year 2030 under different scenarios. About US$200–400 million per annum could be saved along with other environmental and health benefits by using gasol in the transport sector.     

Energy overview for the sultanate of oman

Since 1967, exporting crude oil has been the leading hard-currency earner for Oman: 9×10⁵ barrels of crude oil per day being extracted in 1997. The total remaining oil reserves, which can be harnessed economically now, amount to approximately 5.2×10⁹ barrels, but this commercially-available resource is expected to be depleted completely by the year 2015. The second most important source of energy in the country is natural gas: present economically-harnessable reserves are approximately 724×10⁹ Nm³. In 1994, the amount extracted was merely 2.4×10⁹ Nm³. This resource is expected to be exhausted by the year 2064. From 1990 to 1995, the Government-run electricity-generation power-capability rose from 1277 to 1642 MW: the peak demand has grown simultaneously by 59%. The total-power generation in 1995 was 6500 GWh, while the annual consumption was 6173 GWh; the domestic sector accounting for approximately 60% of the total consumption. The rate of energy consumption pattern is seasonal in nature, with the mid-summer electric demand being nearly triple that of mid-winter. Private cars accounted for 54% of the total number of vehicles in Oman in 1994, and this number is rising rapidly. The associated freedom of choice to use the private car in order to satisfy the desires for increased mobility and privacy will not be sustainable in the long term.     

印度能源构成特点和发展趋势

印度是个经济发展较快的人口大国,它目前的经济和能源状况很像本世纪初的中国。印度的能源(特别是煤炭)消费增速自国际金融危机以来不断加快,但作为能源主体的煤炭、石油和天然气的生产、进口都处于一种被压抑的"欠帐"状态,成为影响经济社会发展的瓶颈,保障能源供应是印度发展中最急迫的现实问题。在印度能源构成中煤炭居首位,燃煤发电量占其电力的68%;石油资源,特别是天然气占能源消费总量的比例低于世界均值;水电占一次能源消费的比例较高。印度煤炭进口增长很快,现居世界第三位,且有可能在2020年成为世界第一大煤炭进口国。印度大量进口原油、出口油品,但天然气进口增长缓慢。印度能源生产和进口被压抑的原因在于强行压低国内价格、政府为财政补贴背上重负、能源被国营大企业垄断,以及基础设施落后、政府施政能力薄弱。但这并不能阻止印度在世界经济和能源格局中的地位逐渐增强。本世纪二三十年代,以中国和印度为领跑者的东亚-南亚弧形地带将成为世界重要的能源消费中心,世界能源格局的多元化亦将更加成熟。     

China's oil use, 1990–2008

Over the past two decades, China's oil demand has risen steeply. In 1990, it was only about 25% higher than that of 1978, the year economic reform was introduced. By 2008, it had reached 396.0 million tons, roughly four times the 1978 level, making China the second largest oil user worldwide. The country became a net oil importer in 1993, and between 1993 and 2008, its net import dependency—a yardstick for energy security—soared from 7.5% to 50.0%. China's increased demand for oil has made the country a global energy player of critical importance. Although the literature on the global implications of China's oil use has proliferated, relatively few studies have attempted to examine “how China uses oil.” Hence, this study covers every oil-consuming facility and sector in China, exploring the patterns of, and factors involved in, oil demand by power plants, oil refineries, heat plants and, gas-works, and industrial, transport, agricultural, household and commercial sectors. It concludes that in virtually all sectors in China, oil demand will grow, with transport and industry leading the way.     

The potential contribution of geothermal energy to electricity supply in Saudi Arabia

With increase in demand for electricity at 7.5% per year, the major concern of Saudi Arabia is the amount of CO₂ being emitted. The country has the potential of generating 200×10⁶ kWh from hydrothermal sources and 120×10⁶ terawatt hour from Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) sources. In addition to electricity generation and desalination, the country has substantial source for direct application such as space cooling and heating, a sector that consumes 80% of the electricity generated from fossil fuels. Geothermal energy can offset easily 17 million kWh of electricity that is being used for desalination. At least a part of 181,000 Gg of CO₂ emitted by conventional space cooling units can also be mitigated through ground-source heat pump technology immediately. Future development of EGS sources together with the wet geothermal systems will make the country stronger in terms of oil reserves saved and increase in exports.     

The energy situation in Bangladesh and a strategy for future development

With the latest increase in the price of oil, Bangladesh will have to spend about 50% of her foreign exchange earnings for meeting about 17% of her total energy need.2 With economic development, the demand for energy will increase. If the present trend of development in the consumption of commercial energy is followed, the balance of payment situation will continue to deteriorate. Therefore, emphasis has been placed on the development of indigenous natural gas as a source of commercial energy. Because Bangladesh is basically an agricultural country and because about 90% of the population live in villages, in 1978–1979 about 65% of the total energy was supplied by traditional energy. Attention has therefore focused on the development of traditional sources of energy, to which little importance has previously been given.     

The status of primary fossil energy resources in Turkey

The lack of primary fossil energy resources in Turkey is an important problem. Turkey is one of the top 25 nations in energy consumption. Its domestic electricity demand is increasing by 6% per year. Turkey is an import-dependent country because the production of natural gas and oil in Turkey is very low. Turkey must import 93% of its oil needs and 99% of its natural gas requirements. The aim of this study is to investigate the current use and the available potential of primary fossil energy resources in Turkey.     

Palm-based biofuel refinery (PBR) to substitute petroleum refinery: An energy and emergy assessment

As the most active palm industry cluster in the world, Malaysia produces enormous amount of biomass from the industry. This work studies the possibility of creating a renewable and sustainable source of energy by fully utilizing an area of land to provide liquid biofuel for the country. Palm-based biofuel refinery (PBR) proposed in this study has the ultimate goal to displace petroleum fuels and fulfill domestic energy demand. It fully utilizes indigenous palm biomass to fulfill 35.5% of energy demand in the country by using land area of only 8% of current palm cultivation. The operation concept of PBR is similar to petroleum refinery in which a single source feedstock (crude petroleum) can be processed to multiple products. In PBR, products from an oil palm plantation will be converted to various biofuel end products. Renewable biofuel such as biodiesel and bioethanol can be produced from crude palm oil and lignocellulosic residues. Energy and emergy assessment were made in this work to evaluate the sustainability and efficiency of PBR. Biofuel produced from PBR has a high energy equivalent of 31.56 MJ/kg as 1 ha of land can produce 182,142 MJ annually. Although there are still obstacles to be overcome, it is important for Malaysia to develop its own energy supply from indigenous resources as an initiative not only for security but also lower carbon emission.     

A review on energy scenario and sustainable energy in Indonesia

The global energy consumption is likely to grow faster than the population growth. The fuel consumption was growing from 6630 million tons of oil equivalents (Mtoe) in 1980 to 11,163 Mtoe in 2009. This projected consumption will increase 1.5% per year until 2030 and reach 16,900 Mtoe and the main drivers of this growth are mostly developing countries in Asia. Indonesia is one of the developing countries and energy supply is an important factor for all-around development. The country's energy consumption still depends on non-renewable energy such as crude oil, coal and natural gas as sources of energy. Utilization of fossil fuel continuously contributes to huge amount of greenhouse gases emission that leads to climate change. Facing such an unfavorable situation, the government of Indonesia prioritizes on energy supply securities by diversification of energy resources. The energy mixes in Indonesia based on five main resources; these are crude oil, natural gas, coal, hydropower, and renewable energy. Although the country encourages utilizing renewable energy, the contribution is only around 3%. Considering natural condition and geography, this country is blessed with great potential of renewable energy such as solar energy, wind energy, micro hydro and biomass energy. Noting the potential of renewable and sustainable energy resources in the country, the government must pay more attention on how to utilize it. Many efforts have been done to promote renewable energy such as to create energy policy and regulations, yet it still did not give any satisfactory result. Government, non-government agencies and the public should take a more proactive step to promote and use renewable energy in order to achieve the secure and environmentally sustainable energy resources.     

Utilization of solar–hydrogen energy in the UAE to maintain its share in the world energy market for the 21st century

A preliminary solar–hydrogen energy system for the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been proposed to bridge the gap between oil and natural gas demand and supply in the 21st century, and to meet the country's share in the energy market. In our study, we quantitatively consider the benefits of such an energy system on the overall energy situation in the UAE. The variables considered include population, energy demand, energy production, income from sales of fossil fuels and hydrogen energy, photovoltaics area, and total land area required for installing such a system. Our study indicated that the UAE would fail to meet its share in the oil market demand by the year 2015, while in the case of natural gas it will be by the year 2042. In order to maintain its share in the world energy market, we propose that hydrogen be gradually introduced to meet the demand. The income generated by hydrogen energy would account for 90% of the nation's total income if such a system were utilized. Our analysis could be greatly influenced by several factors such as future government projects related to fossil fuel production and increasing diversification in the economy of the country.     

石油化工节能设备及技术进展

"十二五"时期,我国工业化、城镇化进程将进一步加快,能源需求将继续快速增长。目前,我国总体能源利用效率为33%左右,比发达国家低约10个百分点。石油和化学工业总产值占全国规模工业总产值的12%,而能源消耗量则占全国能源消耗总量的15%,是节能减排的重点对象。2012年,我国原油进口量约为2.71×108t,比上年增长6.8%。在国家发改委公布的千家重点耗能企业中,石油和化工企业占1/3。做好石油化工行业的节能减排工作,一是要在新装置设计时,认真落实国家相关标准,实施节能设计,从工艺和设备上实现源头节能;二是要对现有装置,通过技术改造,实施设备更新和工艺优化,使老装置达到节能标准;三是要不断开发新技术、新工艺、新材料和新设备,不断更新节能标准,尤其是强制性标准,在新的高度上实现节能减排的良性循环。     

我国石油供需发展历程及预测分析

石油作为重要的战略能源与基础性产品,对国民经济的发展将起到至关重要的作用,尤其在经济危机之后国际局势动荡,使我国的石油市场受到严重影响。从产量、进出口和国际局势的影响等3方面对我国石油供给发展状况进行介绍,并结合石油需求发展状况和石油安全对我国石油供需发展历程进行科学分析。在此基础上．选取2000～2012年这13年的石油产量和消费量为原始数据,运用灰色预测法和线性回归分析法分别对我国2013～2020年的石油产量和消费量进行预测。结果表明,我国石油消费量的增长速度明显高于产量的增长速度．与持续膨胀的石油需求相比,我国石油的自给能力几乎已经达到了极限,供不应求的状态将日益严重。提出了有针对性的建议：重视和增加石油储备资金投入,加大勘探力度和技术水平,全方位保证我国石油供应安全;走能源多元化道路,建立节约型消费模式,抑制石油消费地过快增长;开发下游市场,贯彻“走出去”战略,有效弥补国内石油供需缺口。     

从汽柴油消费变化预测我国中长期石油需求

我国石油消费需求不断增长,2012年达到5.03×108t,石油对外依存度从2009年超过国际警戒线达到52%以来持续提高,已逼近60%。影响石油消费的主要因素包括国民经济发展水平、城镇化率、汽车保有量、非石油能源及节能技术等,其中中长期内对我国石油消费影响较大的是国民经济发展水平、汽车保有量及城镇化趋势。采用主成分分析法,预测我国2020年、2030年汽柴油消费量合计分别为31593×104t和34718×104t,按照汽柴油消费量合计占石油消费总量的55%计算,2020年、2030年的石油消费量分别为5.7×108t和6.3×108t。届时我国每年至少需要进口石油3.7×108t以上,对外依存度将高达65%。鉴于此,建议应大力发展和鼓励使用节能型(低能耗)汽车及新能源汽车,逐步降低汽车保有量增幅,并高效有序地发展公共交通;同时有序调整炼油厂装置结构,提高优质汽柴油调合组分比例;另外,加快发展替代能源和替代燃料是有效降低石油消费需求增幅,提高能源安全保障能力的重要措施之一。