Designing a friendly space for technological change to slow global warming

What is the best strategy to encourage research and development on new energy technologies in a market economy? What steps can ensure a rapid and efficient transition to an economy that has much lower net carbon emissions? This paper shows that, under limited conditions, a necessary and sufficient condition for an appropriate innovational environment is a universal, credible, and durable price on carbon emissions. Such a price would balance the marginal damages from carbon emissions against the marginal costs of abating emissions; it should not contain a correction factor for inducing technological change. This result, which the paper calls “price fundamentalism,” applies principally to the market-oriented part of research and innovation. It is subject to qualifications regarding the efficacy of intellectual property protection and the proper level of carbon prices, and it applies primarily to market sectors. The role of appropriate prices on emissions is a central part of public policies to encourage technologies to combat global warming.     

Analysis of the economic impact of different Chinese climate policy options based on a CGE model incorporating endogenous technological change

Abatement cost is the main concern for climate change mitigation and the key factor for mitigation cost is technological change. This study established an integrated economic, energy, environmental, dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model representing endogenous technological change for China's climate change policy analysis. This study analyzed and compared the economic impact of different approaches to mitigation commitments as well as the potential role of technological change in the formulation of mitigation targets and commitments, taking into account China's climate policy-making needs based on the current international climate negotiation process. The results show that, absolute emission limits similar to the Kyoto Protocol will seriously impede the future economic development of China, while the impact of an 80% reduction in carbon intensity, forecast for 2050 based on the 2005 level, is relatively small. Technological change can promote economic growth, improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon intensity per unit of output through the substitution of production factors. Consequently it can reduce marginal abatement cost and related GDP loss by mitigation. At the same time it can increase mitigation potentials and extend the emission reduction amount, showing that consideration of the impact of technological change when deciding the emission reduction targets is necessary.     

Uncertainty in land-use change and forestry sector mitigation options for global warming: Plantation silviculture versus avoided deforestation

How land-use change and forestry sector options can be used to mitigate global warming will depend on a variety of pending decisions regarding interpretation of the Kyoto Protocol, including treatment of uncertainty. In tropical forest countries, the allocation of effort between plantation silviculture and reduction of deforestation would be influenced by the stringency of requirements regarding certainty. Slowing deforestation offers much greater potential benefits, but the certainty associated with these is much lower than in the case of plantations. In the Brazilian case, deforestation avoidance could produce carbon benefits worth 6–45 times as much as the destructive ranching and logging uses to which the forest is now being converted. Capturing the potential value of carbon benefits from avoided deforestation will depend on increasing our understanding of the deforestation process and consequent ability to reduce the uncertainty associated with the effects of deforestation-avoidance measures. It will also depend on whether carbon credits are defined in terms of a maximum level of uncertainty.     

Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change

In this article, we assess the potential development of energy use for future residential heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change. In a reference scenario, global energy demand for heating is projected to increase until 2030 and then stabilize. In contrast, energy demand for air conditioning is projected to increase rapidly over the whole 2000–2100 period, mostly driven by income growth. The associated CO₂ emissions for both heating and cooling increase from 0.8 Gt C in 2000 to 2.2 Gt C in 2100, i.e. about 12% of total CO₂ emissions from energy use (the strongest increase occurs in Asia). The net effect of climate change on global energy use and emissions is relatively small as decreases in heating are compensated for by increases in cooling. However, impacts on heating and cooling individually are considerable in this scenario, with heating energy demand decreased by 34% worldwide by 2100 as a result of climate change, and air-conditioning energy demand increased by 72%. At the regional scale considerable impacts can be seen, particularly in South Asia, where energy demand for residential air conditioning could increase by around 50% due to climate change, compared with the situation without climate change.     

A multi-criteria evaluation of policy instruments for climate change mitigation in the power generation sector of Trinidad and Tobago

Even as small island developing states (SIDS) like Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) increase industrialization and grapple with the challenges of increased pollution, few studies provide guidance to policy makers of such countries on appropriate policy measures and instruments that can be implemented to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Here we apply a multi-criteria evaluation methodology to ascertain preferences for policy measures and instruments in the power generation sector. Four broad policy measures and twelve policy instruments are assessed on criteria of environmental performance, feasibility of implementation and political acceptability. This method proves useful in T&T, since typical to many SIDS, the intensive data required by other policy assessment methods is unavailable. Results indicate little difference in preference among the four policy measures thereby indicating that a multi-pronged approach on several policy fronts is required. The most preferred policy instruments to operationalize measures included provision of subsidies for energy saving technologies, creating an industry wide carbon trading scheme and implementing a feed-in tariff to increase the use of renewable energy sources. This study therefore provides specific insights for policy makers in Trinidad and Tobago while also providing power generation sector specific guidance to other rapidly industrializing small island developing states.     

Reflections on the international climate change negotiations: A synthesis of a working group on carbon emission policy and regulation in Brazil

This short communication presents a synthesis of a Working Group on Carbon Emission Policy and Regulation held at the University of Sao Paulo, in Brazil. The document looked at the problems with the international negotiations, the options for Brazil as it attempts to control emissions, and ways to leverage the mitigation process. Several options are currently being proposed, but these are neither clear in order to support a solid polycentric approach with adequate metrics, nor a robust international coordination and a sound scientific communication. Brazil has a central role in this process, for having successful initiatives on renewable energy and deforestation control. Its leadership can demonstrate how such policies might take shape. However, the country´s future is uncertain in terms of low carbon development. Although the country is still well positioned among BRICS to find practical solutions to the stalemate in international cooperation, several internal challenges need to be harmonized.     

American policy conflict in the greenhouse: Divergent trends in federal,regional, state,and local green energy and climate change policy

Climate change threatens significant impacts on global ecosystems and human populations. To address this challenge, industrialized nations have ratified the Kyoto Protocol and undertaken commitments to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, the primary agents linked to anthropogenic alteration of earth's climate. By contrast, the US government, led by the Bush Administration, has rejected mandatory targets for curbing emissions under the Protocol, and has instead pursued voluntary mitigation measures amid a larger push for clean coal and “next generation” nuclear technologies. These actions in total have fueled global perceptions that the US is not acting in substantial ways to address climate change. Nevertheless, action within the US is indeed moving forward, with states, cities and regional partnerships filling the federal leadership vacuum. This paper reviews the diverse policies, strategies, and cooperative frameworks that have emerged at regional, state and local levels to guide climate protection, and identifies the environmental and economic benefits linked to such programs. The paper also attempts to explain the existing federal impasse on climate policy, with attention given to how sub-national efforts may ultimately obviate national governmental inaction.     

Development of the all‐vanadium redox flow battery for energy storage: a review of technological,financial and policy aspects

The commercial development and current economic incentives associated with energy storage using redox flow batteries (RFBs) are summarised. The analysis is focused on the all‐vanadium system, which is the most studied and widely commercialised RFB. The recent expiry of key patents relating to the electrochemistry of this battery has contributed to significant levels of commercialisation in, for example, Austria, China and Thailand, as well as pilot‐scale developments in many countries. The potential benefits of increasing battery‐based energy storage for electricity grid load levelling and MW‐scale wind/solar photovoltaic‐based power generation are now being realised at an increasing level. Commercial systems are being applied to distributed systems utilising kW‐scale renewable energy flows. Factors limiting the uptake of all‐vanadium (and other) redox flow batteries include a comparatively high overall internal costs of $217 kW^?1 h^?1 and the high cost of stored electricity of ≈ The commercial development and current economic incentives associated with energy storage using redox flow batteries (RFBs) are summarised. The analysis is focused on the all‐vanadium system, which is the most studied and widely commercialised RFB. The recent expiry of key patents relating to the electrochemistry of this battery has contributed to significant levels of commercialisation in, for example, Austria, China and Thailand, as well as pilot‐scale developments in many countries. The potential benefits of increasing battery‐based energy storage for electricity grid load levelling and MW‐scale wind/solar photovoltaic‐based power generation are now being realised at an increasing level. Commercial systems are being applied to distributed systems utilising kW‐scale renewable energy flows. Factors limiting the uptake of all‐vanadium (and other) redox flow batteries include a comparatively high overall internal costs of $217 kW^?1 h^?1 and the high cost of stored electricity of ≈ $0.10 kW^?1 h^?1. There is also a low‐level utility scale acceptance of energy storage solutions and a general lack of battery‐specific policy‐led incentives, even though the environmental impact of RFBs coupled to renewable energy sources is favourable, especially in comparison to natural gas‐ and diesel‐fuelled spinning reserves. Together with the technological and policy aspects associated with flow batteries, recent attempts to model redox flow batteries are considered. The issues that have been addressed using modelling together with the current and future requirements of modelling are outlined. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.