Fuel consumption for road transport in the USA - a comment

A recent article in this journal econometrically estimated the relationship between US car and truck fuel economy and the price of fuel, without considering the effect of legally mandated fuel economy standards for new vehicles. There is considerable evidence that the standards have played an important role in recent fuel economy improvements. An alternative approach to estimating the fuel price responsiveness of new vehicle fuel economy based on vehicle sales data and capital operating cost trade-off analysis of fuel efficient vehicle design and technology suggests short-and long-run elasticities in the vicinity of 0.25 and 0.5, respectively.     

Searching for hidden costs: A technology-based approach to the energy efficiency gap in light-duty vehicles

The benefit-cost analysis of standards to reduce vehicle greenhouse gas emissions and improve fuel economy by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Department of Transportation (DOT) displays large net benefits from fuel savings for new vehicle buyers. This finding points to an energy efficiency gap: the energy-saving technology provided in private markets appears not to include all the technologies that produce net private benefits. The gap exists if the costs of energy-saving technologies are lower than the present value of fuel reductions, and “hidden costs” – undesirable aspects of the new technologies – do not exceed the net financial benefits. This study examines the existence of hidden costs in energy-saving technologies through a content analysis of auto reviews of model-year 2014 vehicles.Results suggest that it is possible to use fuel-saving technologies on vehicles without imposing hidden costs. For each technology examined, reviews with positive evaluations outnumbered those with negative evaluations. Evidence is scant of a robust relationship between vehicles’ use of energy-saving technologies and negatively rated operational characteristics, such as handling or acceleration. Results do not provide evidence for hidden costs as the explanation of the efficiency gap for vehicle fuel-saving technologies.     

Fuel economy of new passenger cars in Mexico: Trends from 1988 to 2008 and prospects

This paper analyzes trends in fuel economy (kilometers per liter) of new passenger vehicles in Mexico over a period of 20 years from 1988 to 2008. Results show that in this period, fuel economy of the new passenger vehicle fleet, including multipurpose vehicles (a category similar to sport utility vehicles, SUVs), increased by only 6.3%. A simple Laspeyres index analysis was developed to evaluate both the impact of changes in vehicle sales structure by category and the changes in fuel economy. Results show that increased sales of heavier, multipurpose vehicles in place of subcompact and compact vehicles, impacted negatively on the fleet average fuel economy. If the structure of sales had continued in the same proportions across all categories as in 1988, fuel economy would have increased by 11.0%, instead of the actual 6.3%. This result coincides with trends in other countries. The paper also presents different scenarios of passenger car fuel economy for the year 2020, and its implications for gasoline consumption and CO₂ emissions. The results may influence the new passenger vehicle fuel economy standard that is currently under discussion in Mexico.     

Fuel economy and traffic fatalities: multivariate analysis of international data

In the US motor vehicle fuel economy standards were imposed in the late 1970s, in response to the oil crises of that decade. Since then, efforts to increase the standards have not occurred, one reason being the argument that smaller vehicles (which are generally more efficient) are considered less safe. Recent analyses (Energy J.( 2004)) suggests that variance in vehicle weights may be more important than the absolute weights of vehicles in making the highway network less safe. In Europe and other countries, which generally have smaller more efficient vehicle fleets, due to relatively high gasoline taxes, this debate has not occurred. In particular, countries such as Great Britain and Sweden have far safer road transport systems than the US but also have much more efficient vehicle fleets. This suggests that either vehicle weight and size are unimportant or if they have an effect it is small compared to other factors. This paper uses international data to build econometric models that examine whether average vehicle fuel economy has any association with road traffic fatalities, while controlling for other factors that are associated with fatalities. The effect on pedestrian fatalities is also analyzed. Cross-sectional time-series data on traffic fatalities from OECD countries is used and negative binomial regression models are developed using panel data to determine whether any associations are present. Results find that changes in vehicle efficiency are not associated with changes in traffic fatalities, suggesting either that size and weight changes over time have not had a strong effect or are not associated with fuel economy improvements.     

Do vehicle efficiency improvements lead to energy savings? The rebound effect in Great Britain

Fuel efficiency improvements in vehicles reduce the cost of travel, which could stimulate drivers to travel further limiting energy savings. Estimates of this effect, known as the rebound effect, have varied widely, partly due to data constraints and a reliance upon highly aggregated government statistics. This paper instead uses a dataset of over 275 million vehicle roadworthiness tests. The high level of detail in our dataset can reveal, for the first time, how the response to changes in travel costs may differ across types of vehicles and socio-economic areas in Great Britain.We find that the rebound effect in Great Britain is just 4.6%, meaning efficiency improvements are unlikely to stimulate increased mileage in the short-run. We find that larger, less fuel efficient vehicles are more responsive to fuel price changes than smaller vehicles and that drivers in urban areas are more responsive to fuel price changes than drivers in rural areas. Our findings shed light on the effects that policies such as fuel taxation and fuel economy standards may have on vehicle mileage. This has implications for both CO₂ emissions savings and social equity.     

Examining fuel economy and carbon standards for light vehicles

This paper examines fuel economy and carbon standards for light vehicles (passenger cars and light trucks), discussing the rationale for standards, appropriate degrees of stringency and timing, regulatory structure, and ways to deal with “real world” fuel economy issues that may not be dealt with by the standards. There is no optimum method of establishing the stringency of a standard, but policymakers can be informed by analyses of technology cost-effectiveness from the viewpoint of different actors (e.g., society, vehicle purchasers) and of “top runners”—vehicles in the current fleet, or projections of future leading vehicles, that can serve as models for average vehicles some years later. The focus of the paper is on the US light vehicle fleet, with some discussion of applications to the European Union. A “leading edge” midsize car for the 2020 timeframe is identified, and various types of attribute-based standards are discussed. For the US, a 12–15 year target for new vehicle fleet improvement of 30–50% seems a reasonable starting point for negotiations. For 2030 or so, doubling current fuel economy is possible. In both cases, adjustments must be made in response to changing economic circumstances and government and societal priorities.     

Should a vehicle fuel economy standard be combined with an economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions constraint? Implications for energy and climate policy in the United States

The United States has adopted fuel economy standards that require increases in the on-road efficiency of new passenger vehicles, with the goal of reducing petroleum use and (more recently) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Understanding the cost and effectiveness of fuel economy standards, alone and in combination with economy-wide policies that constrain GHG emissions, is essential to inform coordinated design of future climate and energy policy. We use a computable general equilibrium model, the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, to investigate the effect of combining a fuel economy standard with an economy-wide GHG emissions constraint in the United States. First, a fuel economy standard is shown to be at least six to fourteen times less cost effective than a price instrument (fuel tax) when targeting an identical reduction in cumulative gasoline use. Second, when combined with a cap-and-trade (CAT) policy, a binding fuel economy standard increases the cost of meeting the GHG emissions constraint by forcing expensive reductions in passenger vehicle gasoline use, displacing more cost-effective abatement opportunities. Third, the impact of adding a fuel economy standard to the CAT policy depends on the availability and cost of abatement opportunities in transport—if advanced biofuels provide a cost-competitive, low carbon alternative to gasoline, the fuel economy standard does not bind and the use of low carbon fuels in passenger vehicles makes a significantly larger contribution to GHG emissions abatement relative to the case when biofuels are not available. This analysis underscores the potentially large costs of a fuel economy standard relative to alternative policies aimed at reducing petroleum use and GHG emissions. It further emphasizes the need to consider sensitivity to vehicle technology and alternative fuel availability and costs as well as economy-wide responses when forecasting the energy, environmental, and economic outcomes of policy combinations.     

Realistic simulation of fuel economy and life cycle metrics for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles

The present work contributes an engineered life cycle assessment (LCA) of hydrogen fuel cell passenger vehicles based on a real‐world driving cycle for semi‐urban driving conditions. A new customized LCA tool is developed for the comparison of conventional gasoline and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), which utilizes a dynamic vehicle simulation approach to calculate realistic, fundamental science based fuel economy data from actual drive cycles, vehicle specifications, road grade, engine performance, fuel cell degradation effects, and regenerative braking. The total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and life cycle cost of the vehicles are compared for the case of hydrogen production by electrolysis in British Columbia, Canada. A 72% reduction in total GHG emission is obtained for switching from gasoline vehicles to FCVs. While fuel cell performance degradation causes 7% and 3% increases in lifetime fuel consumption and GHG emission, respectively, regenerative braking improves the fuel economy by 23% and reduces the total GHG emission by 10%. The cost assessment results indicate that the current FCV technology is approximately $2,100 more costly than the equivalent gasoline vehicle based on the total lifetime cost including purchase and fuel cost. However, prospective enhancements in fuel cell durability could potentially reduce the FCV lifetime cost below that of gasoline vehicles. Overall, the present results indicate that fuel cell vehicles are becoming both technologically and economically viable compared with incumbent vehicles, and provide a realistic option for deep reductions in emissions from transportation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Gasoline price and new vehicle fuel efficiency: Evidence from Canada

Using data on all new vehicles registered in Canada from 2000 to 2010, we estimate the elasticity of the fuel economy of the new vehicle stock with respect to gasoline price. We find that a 10% increase in gasoline price causes a 0.8% improvement in the fuel economy of new vehicles. However, we also show that consumers respond much more strongly to fuel taxes than to other components of the gasoline price. Finally, we provide evidence that consumers in dense urban areas are more responsive to changes in fuel prices than consumers living on the urban periphery.     

Determinants of consumer interest in fuel economy: Lessons for strengthening the conservation argument

With an outlook for higher global energy prices and concomitant increase of agricultural resources for the pursuit of fuel, consumers are expected to seek more fuel-economic transportation alternatives. This paper examines factors that influence the importance consumers place on fuel economy, with attention given to differences between American and European consumers. In a survey conducted simultaneously in the United States (U.S.) and Belgium in the fall of 2006, respondents in both countries ranked fuel economy high among characteristics considered when purchasing a new vehicle. Overall, respondents in the U.S. placed greater emphasis on fuel economy as a new-vehicle characteristic. Respondents' budgetary concerns carried a large weight when purchasing a new vehicle as reflected in their consideration of a fuel's relative price (e.g. gasoline vs. diesel vs. biofuel) and associated car repair and maintenance costs. On the other hand, high-income Americans displayed a lack of concern over fuel economy. Concern over the environment also played a role since consumers who felt empowered to affect the environment with their purchasing decisions (buying low and clean emission technology and fuels) placed greater importance on fuel economy. No statistically significant effects on fuel economy rankings were found related to vehicle performance, socio-demographic parameters of age, gender or education. Importantly, the tradeoff between using agricultural inputs for energy rather than for food, feed and fiber had no impact on concerns over fuel economy. Finally, contrary to expectations, U.S. respondents who valued domestically produced renewable fuels did not tend to value fuel economy.     

The effects of driving patterns and PEM fuel cell degradation on the lifecycle assessment of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles

This research paper mainly deals with the realistic simulation of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and the development of a lifecycle assessment (LCA) tool to calculate and compare the environmental impacts of hydrogen fuel cell passenger vehicles with conventional vehicles. Since fuel cell vehicles are equipped with regenerative braking, they have strong potential to recover an ample portion of the energy being wasted in the braking system. Thus, the driving cycle can significantly affect the performance of fuel cell vehicles. In order to investigate the effect of driving patterns, several driving patterns are considered, and both vehicle fuel economy and lifecycle emissions are calculated and compared. Fuel cell degradation, on the other hand, is another major problem fuel cell vehicles face. This is mainly caused by the starts/stops, acceleration/deceleration, membrane humidity variation and a high load of the engine. When the vehicle operates on various driving patterns, the fuel cell will degrade which eventually affects the fuel economy. The effect of fuel cell degradation is also investigated for these driving patterns, and the results are compared. The results showed that the highway driving cycle has the lowest total lifecycle emission compared to New York city driving cycle, the city of Surrey (CoS) driving cycle, and the UDDS driving cycles. The results also indicate that fuel cell degradation undesirably affected the average fuel economy of the vehicle for about 23%.     

Potential long-term impacts of changes in US vehicle fuel efficiency standards

Changes in corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards have not been made due, in part, to concerns over their negative impact on the economy and jobs. This paper simulates the effects of enhanced CAFE standards through 2030 and finds that such changes could increase GDP and create 300,000 jobs distributed widely across states, industries, and occupations. In addition, enhanced CAFE standards could, each year, reduce US oil consumption by 30 billion gallons, save drivers $40 billion, and reduce US greenhouse gas emissions by 100 million tons. However, there is no free lunch. There would be widespread job displacement within many industries, occupations, and states, and increased CAFE standards require that fuel economy be given priority over other vehicle improvements, increase the purchase price of vehicles, require manufacturers to produce vehicles that they otherwise would not, and require consumers to purchase vehicles that would not exist except for CAFE.     

新能源汽车的经济性分析——以比亚迪PHEV和BEV为例

以国产新能源汽车-比亚迪为分析对象,分析和比较了传统燃油汽车和插电式混合动力汽车、纯电动汽车的使用及购买总成本。通过建立插电式混合动力汽车成本计算模型,并考虑汽油价格与电价的变化因素,分析插电式混合动力汽车和纯电动汽车经济性的优势与不足。分析结果表明,插电式混合动力汽车具有较鲜明的经济性,适合更广泛的推广应用;纯电动汽车随着电池性能的提高以及车载电池容量的减少,其经济性也将越来越明显。这对我国新能源汽车的研究开发和推广应用具有现实意义。     

Review on fuel economy standard and label for vehicle in selected ASEAN countries

Sustainable supply of energy at affordable prices is vital to ensure the human development. ASEAN is committed pursuing for a clean and green region with fully established mechanisms for sustainable development to ensure the protection of regional environment, resources and the high quality of people's life. Nowadays, energy use in the transportation sector represents an important issue in ASEAN countries. Therefore, it is believed that the introduction of fuel economy standards and labels is the key to save energy in this sector. Fuel economy standards and labels are relatively cheap measure to influence consumer behaviour and to induce car manufacturers to produce more efficient vehicles. Fuel economy standards and labels for vehicle are being implemented in many countries around the world to save fuel consumption and mitigate CO₂ emission. This paper is a review on fuel economy standard and labels for vehicle in some selected ASEAN countries such as Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. It has been found that Singapore is the leading country in ASEAN that has implemented fuel economy standards and labels. Moreover, it has been found that the implementation of cleaner fuels standard play a crucial role in protecting public health and the environment from transportation sector emissions. The most common alternative fuels used in ASEAN are biodiesel, ethanol, methanol, propane, hydrogen and natural gas.     

New vehicle fuel economy in the UK: Impact of the recession and recent policies

Interests in vehicle fuel economy have increased in the past few years with the implementations of more stringent CAFE standard in USA and mandatory carbon emission standard in the EU. We seek to understand the effects of recent policies such as restructuring of Vehicle Excise Duties and EU standard on new vehicle fuel economy in the UK. In the past few years there have been substantial fluctuations in income and fuel prices, offering an interesting testing ground to understand their impact on the demand for fuel economy in vehicles. We use a monthly dataset to find that the emission standard is the largest driver for fuel economy improvements in recent years. Also, contrary to some recent findings in Europe and in UK, we find that income has an effect and that the recession had some role in improving the fuel economy. The effects of fuel prices were relatively small. Restructuring of the VED also improved new vehicle fuel economy in the UK, but the scrappage scheme had no significant effect. Results indicate that both supply and demand side policies are effective in improving fuel economy, although quantitatively the emission standard appears more effective due to its stringency. It is also important to consider the effects of income while devising demand side policies.     

A difficult road ahead: Fleet fuel economy,footprint-based CAFE compliance,and manufacturer incentives

Using detailed vehicle specifications, this paper analyzes the impact identifiable vehicle characteristics and technological progress has on fleet fuel economy by vehicle type and class. The results suggest manufacturers will face a difficult task complying with the new footprint-based CAFE standards if compliance is met by only changing identifiable vehicle characteristics. I find evidence that the stringent footprint-based standards create a manufacturer incentive to increase vehicle size to lower the burden of compliance. This undermines the standards' potential to create expected fuel savings and lower emissions levels.     

The water needs for LDV transportation in the United States

Concern over increased demand for petroleum, reliable fuel supply, and global climate change has resulted in the US government passing new Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards and a Renewable Fuels Standard. Consequently, the fuel mix for light duty vehicle (LDV) travel in the United States will change over the coming years. This paper explores the embodied water consumption and withdrawal associated with two projections for future fuel use in the US LDV sector. This analysis encompasses conventional and unconventional fossil fuels, corn ethanol, cellulosic ethanol, soy biodiesel, electricity, and hydrogen. The existing mandate in the US to blend ethanol into gasoline had effectively committed 3300 billion liters of irrigation water in 2005 (approximately 2.4% of US 2005 fresh water consumption) for producing fuel for LDVs. With current irrigation practices, fuel processing, and electricity generation, it is estimated that by 2030, approximately 14,000 billion liters of water per year will be consumed and 23,000–27,000 billion liters withdrawn to produce fuels used in LDVs. Irrigation for biofuels dominates projected water usage for LDV travel, but other fuels (coal to liquids, oil shale, and electricity via plug-in hybrid vehicles) will also contribute appreciably to future water consumption and withdrawal, especially on a regional basis.     

Energy for sustainable road transportation in China: Challenges,initiatives and policy implications

This paper presents an overview of the initiatives launched in energy supply and consumption and the challenges encountered in sustainable road transportation development in China. It analyzes the main energy challenges related to road transportation development arising in the context of economic development, rapid urbanization, and improvement in living standards. It also discusses technological- and policy initiatives needed to deal with these challenges, drawing comparisons with foreign experience: promoting the development and dissemination of alternative fuels and clean vehicles such as: LPG, CNG, EV, HEV, FCV, ethanol, methanol, DME, bio-diesel, and CTL, strengthening regulations relating to vehicle fuel economy and emission, improving traffic efficiency and facilitating public transport development, and strengthening management of the soaring motor vehicle population. If the current pattern continues, by the year 2030, the vehicle population in China will be 400 million and fuel demand will be 350 million tons. The potential energy saving capacity being 60%, the actual oil demand by 2030 from on-road vehicles might technically be kept at the current level by improving fuel economy, propagating use of HEV and diesel vehicles, improving supply of alternative fuels, and developing public transport. Several uncertainties are identified that could greatly influence the effect of the technical proposals: traffic efficiency, central government's resolve, and consumers' choice.     

Comparison of well-to-wheels energy use and emissions of a hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle relative to a conventional gasoline-powered internal combustion engine vehicle

The operation of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (HFCEVs) is more efficient than that of gasoline conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), and produces zero tailpipe pollutant emissions. However, the production, transportation, and refueling of hydrogen are more energy- and emissions-intensive compared to gasoline. A well-to-wheels (WTW) energy use and emissions analysis was conducted to compare a HFCEV (Toyota Mirai) with a gasoline conventional ICEV (Mazda 3). Two sets of specific fuel consumption data were used for each vehicle: (1) fuel consumption derived from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) window-sticker fuel economy figure, and (2) weight-averaged fuel consumption based on physical vehicle testing with a chassis dynamometer on EPA's five standard driving cycles. The WTW results show that a HFCEV, even fueled by hydrogen from a fossil-based production pathway (via steam methane reforming of natural gas), uses 5%–33% less WTW fossil energy and has 15%–45% lower WTW greenhouse gas emissions compared to a gasoline conventional ICEV. The WTW results are sensitive to the source of electricity used for hydrogen compression or liquefaction.     

Simulation of the market penetration of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in Korea

As fuel cell technologies are developed, hydrogen‐powered vehicles are receiving more interest. The hydrogen economy, particularly hydrogen‐powered vehicle penetration into the Korean transportation market, is studied in this paper. Vensim, a system dynamic code, was used to simulate the dynamics in the transportation market, assuming various types of vehicles such as gasoline, hybrid electricity, and hydrogen powered. Market share for each vehicle was predicted using the currently available data. The results showed that the hydrogen era will not be as bright as predicted by many people. The main barrier is the fuel cell cost. Thus, in order to expand the fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) market, hydrogen fuel cell cost needs to be dramatically reduced. Hydrogen‐powered FCV cost, including operating and capital costs, should reach $0.16 per kilometer in order to seize 50% of the newly created transportation market. However, if strong policies or subsidies are implemented, the results predicted here will be affected. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.