Quantifying regional economic impacts of CO2 intensity targets in China

To address rising energy use and CO₂ emissions, China's leadership has enacted energy and CO₂ intensity targets under the Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2011–2015), which are defined at both the national and provincial levels. We develop a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with global coverage that disaggregates China's 30 provinces and includes energy system detail, and apply it to assess the impact of the current binding provincial CO₂ emissions intensity targets. We compare the impact of the provincial targets approach to a single target for China that achieves the same reduction in CO₂ emissions intensity at the national level. The national target assumes trading of emissions allowances across provinces, resulting in the least-cost reductions nationwide. We find that the national target results in about 20% lower welfare loss in China relative to the provincial targets approach. Given that the regional distribution of impacts has been an important consideration in the target-setting process, we focus on the changes in provincial-level CO₂ emissions intensity, CO₂ emissions, energy consumption, and economic welfare. We observe significant heterogeneity across provinces in terms of the energy system response as well as the magnitude of welfare impacts. We further model the current policy of fixed end-use electricity prices in China and find that national welfare losses increase. Assumptions about capital mobility have a substantial impact on national welfare loss, while changing assumptions about the future availability of domestic natural gas resources does not have a large effect.     

Capacity demand analysis of energy storage in the sending-side of a power grid for accommodating large-scale renewables

我国新能源富集的"三北地区"弃风弃光现象严重,同时储能技术发展已逐步接近规模化应用水平。该文在分析影响新能源消纳问题的电网结构特性、储能技术应用发展方向与技术水平的基础上,基于电网可最大释放的新能源发电空间约束建立了以缩减弃风率与弃光率为目标的储能系统功率与容量配置的数学模型,结合储能投资成本与提升新能源消纳收益构成的投资收益比评估约束指标,提出了满足新能源消纳性能/投资成本比较优的储能容量需求计算方法,探索了储能提升新能源消纳能力的技术与经济可行性分析思路。以消纳风电和光伏为主的两省级电网为例,讨论了储能在送端电网中促进风电和光伏消纳应用中的作用及经济适用性,验证了该新能源消纳方案的可行性。     

Correcting the uneven burden sharing of emission reduction across provinces in China

Although China committed to reduce its energy and emission intensity, the allocation of such national targets in the provincial level is still a political negotiation process and lack of a systematic principle from the perspective of efficiency. This paper proposes an allocation principle based on the efficiency levels. The efficiency levels are estimated by employing a stochastic frontier analysis approach and the links between energy intensity and efficiency are constructed. The results show that energy efficiency change is not the major contributor to energy intensity reduction. Furthermore, this analysis indicates that (i) the efficiency-based allocation can distribute reduction burdens among regions smoothly compared to the intensity-based allocation; and (ii) the national target of emission intensity reduction can be achieved solely through efficiency measures.     

一种基于可再生能源潜力和能源消费的目标分解模型

为了解决国家可再生能源规划与省域可再生能源规划相衔接的问题,结合中国实际,提出一种基于可再生能源潜力和能源消费的目标分解模型,考虑了现状、资源及消费情况,把目标分为基本份额、固定份额和浮动份额3部分。模型给出了一个协调因子的确定方法,决策者可以根据实际需要,确定其资源潜力和能源消费的比重关系。以北京和福建为例,给出了协调因子变化时,可再生能源份额的变化情况。为了验证该模型的正确性,结合国家可再生能源整体规划和资源需求分布状况,提出了各省域的可再生能源中长期目标。     

江西能源结构与能源效率实证研究

节约能源是中国基本国策,省委、省政府对节能工作高度重视,明确提出“十一五”末单位GDP能耗下20％的奋斗目标。随着江西省工业化、江西城市化进程的进一步加快,国民经济增长对能源的依赖程度逐步增强。经济的发展离不开能源,但能源高消费也将给社会带来巨大的负面影响。因此,优化能源结构、提高能源利用效率,对促进国民经济向资源节约型社会转变具有十分重要的意义。那么优化能源结构到底在多大程度上影响到能源效率？文章根据1985—2008年江西能源消费数据,建立能源效率与能源消费结构的计量模型,定量分析煤品、油品、电力等能源结构对能源效率的影响,并根据模型结果,从能源消费结构的角度提出优化我省能源结构和提高能源效率的政策建议。     

Regional allocation of CO2 emissions allowance over provinces in China by 2020

The mitigation efforts of China are increasingly important for meeting global climate target since the rapid economic growth of China has led to an increasing share in the world's total CO₂ emissions. This paper sets out to explore the approach for realizing China's national mitigation targets submitted to the UNFCCC as part of the Copenhagen Accord; that is, to reduce the intensity of CO₂ emissions per unit of GDP by 40–45% by 2020, as well as reducing the energy intensity and increasing the share of non-fossil fuel consumption, through regional allocation of emission allowance over China's provinces. Since the realization of China's mitigation target essentially represents a total amount emission allowance allocation problem, an improved zero sum gains data envelopment analysis optimization model, which could deal with the constant total amount resources allocation, is proposed in this study. By utilizing this model and based on several scenarios of China's economic growth, CO₂ emissions, and energy consumption, a new efficient emission allowance allocation scheme on provincial level for China by 2020 is proposed. The allocation results indicate that different provinces have to shoulder different mitigation burdens in terms of emission intensity reduction, energy intensity reduction, and share of non-fossil fuels increase.     

A methodology for territorial distribution of CO2 emission reductions in transport sector

Greenhouse gas emission reduction is the pillar of the Kyoto Protocol and one of the main goals of the European Union (UE) energy policy. National reduction targets for EU member states and an overall target for the EU‐15 (8%) were set by the Kyoto Protocol. This reduction target is based on emissions in the reference year (1990) and must be reached by 2012. EU energy policy does not set any national targets, only an overall reduction target of 20% by 2020. This paper transfers global greenhouse gas emission reduction targets in both these documents to the transport sector and specifically to CO₂ emissions. It proposes a nonlinear distribution method with objective, dynamic targets for reducing CO₂ emissions in the transport sector, according to the context and characteristics of each geographical area. First, we analyse CO₂ emissions from transport in the reference year (1990) and their evolution from 1990 to 2007. We then propose a nonlinear methodology for distributing dynamic CO₂ emission reduction targets. We have applied the proposed distribution function for 2012 and 2020 at two territorial levels (EU member states and Spanish autonomous regions). The weighted distribution is based on per capita CO₂ emissions and CO₂ emissions per gross domestic product. Finally, we show the weighted targets found for each EU member state and each Spanish autonomous region, compare them with the real achievements to date, and forecast the situation for the years the Kyoto and EU goals are to be met. The results underline the need for ‘weighted’ decentralised decisions to be made at different territorial levels with a view to achieving a common goal, so relative convergence of all the geographical areas is reached over time. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国石油集团公司能耗现状与节能对策

“十一五”以来,中国石油集团公司坚持把强化目标责任落实和加强监督考核作为推进节能工作的重要保障,建立“十一五”节能目标责任制和年度目标考核制度：坚持把科技进步作为实现节能降耗的重要推动力,加快了技术示范和推广应用步伐,节能降耗水平稳步提升。目前面对的主要问题,一是能源利用水平总体不高,二是节能降耗难度日益加大．三是节能管理还比较薄弱。为确保实现发展目标．将采取加大结构调整与优化力度,全面实施十大节能T程,大力发展循环经济,开展重大科技专项研究,实施节能评估和审查,加强能源审计和监测,持续改进并启动能效水平对标活动,规范管理,夯实节能基础下作等应对措施。     

Estimating the Marginal Abatement Cost Curve of CO2 Emissions in China: Provincial Panel Data Analysis

This paper estimates the Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) of CO₂ emissions in China based on a provincial panel for the period of 2001–2010. The provincial marginal abatement cost (MAC) of CO₂ emissions is estimated using a parameterized directional output distance function. Four types of model specifications are applied to fit the MAC-carbon intensity pairs. The optimal specification controlling for various covariates is identified econometrically. A scenario simulation of China's 40–45% carbon intensity reduction based on our MACC is illustrated. Our simulation results show that China would incur a 559–623 Yuan/t (roughly 51–57%) increase in marginal abatement cost to achieve a corresponding 40–45% reduction in carbon intensity compared to its 2005 level.     

现货市场新能源参与方式及其对市场出清价格的影响分析

在我国新一轮电力市场改革背景下,电力现货市场建设进程进一步加快.随着新能源装机的快速增长,将会对电力现货市场竞价交易带来很大影响.基于我国试点运行的现货交易机制,对现行几种新能源参与市场模式进行了分析并提出了适用于新能源快速发展阶段的市场参与机制.建立了包含新能源参与的省级日前市场机组组合模型和实时市场安全经济调度模型...     

Assessment and optimization of provincial CO2 emission reduction scheme in China: An improved ZSG-DEA approach

This paper applies the zero-sum gains data envelopment analysis (ZSG-DEA) model to assess the provincial CO₂ emission reduction scheme of China in 2020 and then calculates optimized values for the provinces in 2030. Results from two standard optimization procedures to solve the ZSG-DEA model are compared. We also extend the current methods by improving the iterative approach and then introduce fairness to the efficiency-oriented approach for the 2030 case. We found that the choice of optimization procedures has only a minimal impact on the results, but the specification of model does matter. For 2020, a standard DEA approach shows that only 2 provinces out of 30 are efficient. According to the estimation results of the ZSG-DEA model, 12 provinces need to set higher reduction targets, whereas the other 18 provinces could have lower target values to achieve overall efficiency. These results are generally consistent across different optimization approaches. The improved approach is applied to further evaluate a number of scenarios in 2030, in which the adjustment values towards optimum can be calculated for each scenario. Furthermore, we show that the inclusion of fairness can significantly affect the adjustment targets, which is of great importance to policymakers     

考虑调峰调频双重约束的储能规划方法研究

  目的  在新型电力系统的构建进程中,新能源将保持高速发展态势。风、光等新能源大规模并网,其出力的随机性和波动性将给电力系统安全经济运行带来挑战。新型储能由于其具备快速的响应能力和削峰填谷的功效,再加上成本的逐步下降,未来将是电力系统不可或缺的灵活调节资源。  方法  储能容量规划是电力系统全局性问题,通过分析新能源消纳率和调频充裕度,从系统调峰和调频两个方面,以系统总成本最低为目标提出了省级电网储能规模分析方法。  结果  文章以省级电网实际参数为例,采用时序生产模拟软件分析了电源开机方式,对比了不同储能规模对全社会经济性的影响。  结论  结果表明,合适的储能规模可在提高新能源消纳的同时降低全社会成本,该方法的有效性得到了验证,可为实际应用提供指导。     

Energy productivity and Chinese local officials’ promotions: Evidence from provincial governors

Improving energy productivity is one of the most cost-effective ways to achieve a sustainable development target. The existing literature has shown some factors that have driven the improvement in China’s energy productivity. However, these studies do little to tackle the role of Chinese local officials. Political promotions can be seen as the most important career incentive for Chinese local officials. Hence, we intend to study whether energy productivity affects Chinese local officials’ promotions in this paper. The data of position changes for the 31 provincial governors during 1978‐2012 are utilized. We adopted probit models to empirically examine the correlation between provincial governors’ political promotions and energy productivity. The empirical results demonstrate that (1) energy productivity has a significantly positive impact on provincial governors’ political promotions in China, meaning that the provincial governors have the momentum to improve energy productivity; and (2) the effect of energy productivity on provincial governors’ political promotions has evolved, dynamically changing along with the transformation of the economic growth mode and the adjustment of the local officials’ promotion mechanism. The results are helpful in understanding the drivers of the improvement in China’s energy productivity and provide insightful implications for conducting energy policy in China.     

Greenhouse gas emission reduction perspectives in the Baltic States in frames of EU energy and climate policy

The goal of this paper is to estimate the perspectives of the Baltic States: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania on meeting the new European Union climate commitments, i.e., to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% to the year 2020 in comparison with 1990. This ambitious target could be reached based on other EU climate and energy package commitments: increase of the share of renewables and improvement of energy efficiency as tools for fulfilling the GHG emissions reduction target.The paper gives an overview on the current situation and future plans of the Baltic States in the field of energy efficiency, consumption of renewables and reduction of GHG emissions.     

Emission operational strategy for combined cooling,heating, and power systems

Integrated Energy Systems (IES), as technology that use thermal activated components to recover waste heat, are energy systems that offer key solution to global warming and energy security through high overall energy efficiency and better fuel use. Combined Cooling, Heating, and Power (CCHP) Systems are IES that use recovered thermal energy from the prime mover to produce heating and cooling for the building. The CCHP operational strategy is critical and it has to be considered in a well designed system since it defines the ultimate goal for the benefits expected from the system. One of the most common operational strategies is the cost-oriented strategy, which allows the system to operate at the lowest cost. A primary energy strategy (PES) optimizes energy consumption instead of cost. However, as a result of the worldwide concern about global warming, projects that target reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have gained a lot of interest. Therefore, for a CCHP system, an emission strategy (ES) would be an operational strategy oriented to minimize emission of pollutants. In this study, the use of an ES is proposed for CCHP systems targeted to reduce emission of pollutants. The primary energy consumption (PEC) reduction and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission reduction obtained using the proposed ES are compared with results obtained from the use of a PES. Results show that lower emission of CO₂ is achieved with the ES when compared with the PES, which prove the advantage of the ES for the design of CCHP systems targeted to emissions reduction.     

A comparative analysis of energy and CO2 taxes on the primary energy mix for electricity generation

In many countries, economies are moving towards internalization of external costs of greenhouse‐gas (GHG) emissions. This can best be achieved by either imposing additional taxes or by using an emission‐permit‐trading scheme. The electricity sector is under scrutiny in the allocation of emission‐reduction objectives, not only because it is a large homogeneous target, but also because of the obvious emission‐reduction potential by decreasing power generation based on carbon‐intensive fuels. In this paper, we discuss the impact of a primary‐energy tax and a CO₂ tax on the dispatching strategy in power generation. In a case study for the Belgian power‐generating context, several tax levels are investigated and the impact on the optimal dispatch is simulated. The impact of the taxes on the power demand or on the investment strategies is not considered. As a conclusion, we find that a CO₂ tax is more effective than a primary‐energy tax. Both taxes accomplish an increased generation efficiency in the form of a promotion of combined‐cycle gas‐fired units over coal‐fired units. The CO₂ tax adds an incentive for fuel switching which can be achieved by altering the merit order of power plants or by switching to a fuel with a lower carbon content within a plant. For the CO₂ tax, 13 €/tonCO₂ is withheld as the optimal value which results in an emission reduction of 13% of the electricity‐related GHG emissions in the Belgian power context of 2000. A tax higher than 13 €/tonCO₂ does not contribute to the further reduction of GHGs. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

石油集输生产过程中实现节能减排的探讨

石油是国家重要的战略资源,提高石油资源的有效利用迫在眉睫。本文就石油集输生产过程中如何实现节能减排,进行了深入研究。提出了节能减排的主要途径:一是利用热电厂余热蒸汽,实现能源跨行业按梯度降品依次使用,达到节能减排的目标;二是利用低硫煤制气替代原油,实现能耗结构的优化和减少有害气体的排放;三是利用重油替代原油,实现能源的降品使用。推进石油集输生产工艺的改进,关键是创新管理、跨越行业、节能减排、创造和谐、才能实现建设节约型油田、输油管道的目标,为建设和谐社会做出贡献。     

Energy and environmental implications of carbon emission reduction targets: Case of Kathmandu Valley,Nepal

This paper analyzes the sectoral energy consumption pattern and emissions of CO₂ and local air pollutants in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. It also discusses the evolution of energy service demands, structure of energy supply system and emissions from various sectors under the base case scenario during 2005–2050. A long term energy system planning model of the Kathmandu Valley based on the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) framework is used for the analyses. Furthermore, the paper analyzes the least cost options to achieve CO₂ emission reduction targets of 10%, 20% and 30% below the cumulative emission level in the base case and also discusses their implications for total cost, technology-mix, energy-mix and local pollutant emissions. The paper shows that a major switch in energy use pattern from oil and gas to electricity would be needed in the Valley to achieve the cumulative CO₂ emission reduction target of 30% (ER30). Further, the share of electricity in the cumulative energy consumption of the transport sector would increase from 12% in the base case to 24% in the ER30 case.     

LEAP模型在可再生能源规划中的应用

我国具有丰富的可再生能源资源,国家也出台了很多促进可再生能源发展的政策,但我国在省级一直缺乏可再生能源的规划及相关经验,本文利用能源规划中常用的LEAP模型,并结合湖南省作为案例,研究了LEAP在省级规划工作中应用,探讨在省级可再生能源规划中定量分析方法,得到更具有可操作性的规划。     

Domestic futures—Which way to a low-carbon housing stock?

This paper examines various routes to achieving a 60% carbon emission reduction from the UK housing stock by 2050 compared to 1996, using a new object-oriented housing stock and carbon model, DECarb. As housing is at present responsible for 26% of all UK emissions, housing carbon reduction is likely to be a key component for the overall 60% emission reduction target set by the UK Government's Energy White Paper in 2003. This paper compares 3 independently published sets of scenarios detailing possible routes and suggests that highly disaggregated approaches produce more credible data. The results also show that whilst there are many different routes to achieving the target from a technological standpoint, all of them will require significant shifts in current practice. We investigate other routes to achieving this target, while also meeting nearer term reductions of 50% by 2030. DECarb shows that significant challenges exist in meeting these requirements, though they are technically feasible. On this basis it also becomes clear that the domestic sector will not be able to offset smaller reductions from any other sector of the economy.