Analysis of electric vehicle driver recharging demand profiles and subsequent impacts on the carbon content of electric vehicle trips

This paper quantifies the recharging behaviour of a sample of electric vehicle (EV) drivers and evaluates the impact of current policy in the north east of England on EV driver recharging demand profiles. An analysis of 31,765 EV trips and 7704 EV recharging events, constituting 23,805 h of recharging, were recorded from in-vehicle loggers as part of the Switch EV trials is presented. Altogether 12 private users, 21 organisation individuals and 32 organisation pool vehicles were tracked over two successive six month trial periods. It was found that recharging profiles varied between the different user types and locations. Private users peak demand was in the evening at home recharging points. Organisation individual vehicles were recharged primarily upon arrival at work. Organisation pool users recharged at work and public recharging points throughout the working day. It is recommended that pay-as-you-go recharging be implemented at all public recharging locations, and smart meters be used to delay recharging at home and work locations until after 23:00 h to reduce peak demand on local power grids and reduce carbon emissions associated with EV recharging.     

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle impacts on hourly electricity demand in the United States

In this study we explore the effects of different charging behaviors of PHEVs in the United States on electricity demand profiles and energy use, in terms of time of day and location (at home, the workplace, or public areas). Based on driving behavior statistics on vehicle distance traveled and daily trips (US DOT, 2003) in the US, we develop a simulation algorithm to estimate the PHEV charging profiles of electricity demand with plausible plug-in times and depth of discharge of the PHEVs.     

High penetration wind generation impacts on spot prices in the Australian national electricity market

This paper explores wind power integration issues for the South Australian (SA) region of the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) by assessing the interaction of regional wind generation, electricity demand and spot prices over 2 recent years of market operation. SA's wind energy penetration has recently surpassed 20% and it has only a limited interconnection with other regions of the NEM. As such, it represents an interesting example of high wind penetration in a gross wholesale pool market electricity industry. Our findings suggest that while electricity demand continues to have the greatest influence on spot prices in SA, wind generation levels have become a significant secondary influence, and there is an inverse relationship between wind generation and price. No clear relationship between wind generation and demand has been identified although some periods of extremely high demand may coincide with lower wind generation. Periods of high wind output are associated with generally lower market prices, and also appear to contribute to extreme negative price events. The results highlight the importance of electricity market and renewable policy design in facilitating economically efficient high wind penetrations.     

The effects of electricity pricing on PHEV competitiveness

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) will soon start to be introduced into the transportation sector, thereby raising a host of issues related to their use, adoption and effects on the electricity sector. Their introduction has the potential to significantly reduce carbon emissions from the transportation sector, which has led to government policies aimed at easing their introduction. If their widespread adoption is set as a target it is imperative to consider the effects of existing policies that may increase or decrease their adoption rate. In this study, we present a micro level electricity demand model that can gauge the effects of PHEVs on household electricity consumption and the subsequent economic attractiveness of the vehicles. We show that the electricity pricing policy available to the consumer is a very significant factor in the economic competitiveness of PHEVs. Further analysis shows that the increasing tier electricity pricing system used in California will substantially blunt adoption of PHEVs in the state; and time of use electricity pricing will render PHEVs more economically attractive in any state.     

Indications for a changing electricity demand pattern: The temperature dependence of electricity demand in the Netherlands

This study assesses the electricity demand pattern in the relatively temperate climate of the Netherlands (latitude 52°30′N). Daily electricity demand and average temperature during the period from 1970 until 2007 are investigated for possible trends in the temperature dependence of electricity demand. We hypothesize that the increased use of cooling applications has shifted the temperature dependence of electricity demand upwards in summer months. Our results show significant increases in temperature dependence of electricity demand in May, June, September, October and during the summer holidays. During the period studied, temperature dependence in these months has shifted from negative to positive, meaning that a higher temperature now leads to an increased electricity demand in these months, rather than a decreased demand as observed historically. Although electricity demand in countries with moderate summer temperatures such as the Netherlands generally peaks in winter months and shows a minimum in summer months, this trend may signal the development of an additional peak in summer, especially given the expected climatic change. As power generating capacity may be negatively influenced by higher temperatures due to decreasing process cooling possibilities, an increasing electricity demand at higher temperatures may have important consequences for power generation capacity planning and maintenance scheduling.     

Input-output table of electricity demand and its application

It is very important for electric utility to determine dominant sectors which have more impacts on electricity consumption in national economy system. In this paper, an input-output perspective and methodology is proposed to handle this issue. The input-output table of electricity demand (IOTED) is put forward based on the input-output table of national economy (IOTNE). The relevancy of electricity demand in various sectors is revealed by means of electricity consumption chains (ECCs), which are key components in the IOTED. Besides, a new concept, electricity demand multiplier (EDM), is presented to identify dominant sectors imposing great impacts on electricity demand quantitatively. In order to testify the effectiveness of the proposed methodology, a case based on provincial economy system in China is studied. Dominant sectors are identified and discussed.     

Economic impacts of power electronics on electricity distribution systems

To achieve more efficient energy use, power electronics (PEs) may be employed. However, these introduce nonlinear loads (NLLs) into the system by generating undesired frequencies that are harmonic in relation to (multiples of) the fundamental frequency (60 Hz in Brazil). Consequently, devices using PEs are more efficient but also contribute significantly to degradation of power quality. Besides this, both the conventional rules on design and operation of power systems and the usual premises followed in energy efficiency programs (without mentioning the electricity consumed by the devices themselves) consider the sinusoidal voltage and current waveforms at the fixed fundamental frequency of the power grid. Thus, analysis of electricity consumption reductions in energy efficiency programs that include the use of PEs considers the reduction of kWh to the final consumer but not the additional losses caused by the increase in harmonic distortion. This article contributes to a better understanding of this problem by reporting the results of a case study of the ownership and use of television sets (TV sets) to estimate the economic impacts of residential PEs on a mainly residential electricity distribution system.     

Effects of regulatory reforms in the electricity supply industry on electricity prices in developing countries

Electric power sector reforms in the electricity supply industry have had an impact on industrial and household prices in developing countries in Latin America, the former Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe. Using original panel data for 83 countries during the period from 1985 to 2002, we examine how each policy instrument of the reform measures influenced electricity prices for countries in the above regions. We found that variables such as entry of independent power producers (IPP), unbundling of generation and transmission, establishment of a regulatory agency, and the introduction of a wholesale spot market have had a variety of impacts on electricity prices, some of which were not always consistent with expected results. The research findings suggest that neither unbundling nor introduction of a wholesale pool market on their own necessarily reduces the electric power price. In fact, contrary to expectations, there was a tendency for the price to rise. However, coexistent with an independent regulator, unbundling may work to reduce electricity prices. Privatization and the introduction of foreign IPP and retail competition lower electricity prices in some regions, but not all.     

Integrating private transport into renewable energy policy: The strategy of creating intelligent recharging grids for electric vehicles

A new business model for accelerating the introduction of electric vehicles into private transport systems involves the provision by an Electric Recharge Grid Operator (ERGO) of an intelligent rechargeable network in advance of the vehicles themselves. The ERGO business model creates a market for co-ordinated production and consumption of renewable energy. The innovative contribution of the model rests in its ability to combine two problems and thereby solve them in a fresh way. One problem derives from utilizing power grids with a substantial increase in renewable electric energy production (as witnessed in the Danish case with wind energy) and managing the resulting fluctuating supply efficiently. The other problem concerns finding ways to reduce CO₂ emissions in the transport sector. The ERGO business model effectively solves both problems, by transforming EVs into distributed storage devices for electricity, thus enabling a fresh approach to evening out of fluctuating and unpredictable energy sources, while drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This integrated solution carries many other associated benefits, amongst which are the possibility of introducing vehicle-to-grid (V2G) distributed power generation; introducing IT intelligence to the grid, and creating virtual power plants from distributed sources; and providing new applications for carbon credits in the decarbonisation of the economy. The countries and regions that have signed on to this model and are working to introduce it in 2009–2011 include Israel, Denmark, Australia, and in the US, the Bay Area cities and the state of Hawaii.     

Issues in the determination of the optimal portfolio of electricity supply options

In recent years a growing amount of attention has been focused on the need to develop a cost-effective portfolio of electricity supply options that provides society with a measure of protection from such factors as fuel price volatility and supply interruptions. A number of strategies, including portfolio theory, real options theory, and different measures of diversity have been suggested. In this paper we begin by first considering how we might characterize an optimal portfolio of supply options and identify a number of constraints that must be satisfied as part of the optimization process. We then review the strengths and limitations of each approach listed above. The results of our review lead us to conclude that, of the strategies we consider, using the concept of diversity to assess the viability of an electricity supply portfolio is most appropriate. We then provide an example of how a particular measure of diversity, the Shannon–Weiner Index, can be used to assess the diversity of the electricity supply portfolio in the state of Illinois, the region served by the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO), and the continental United States.     

江西省电力需求预算与邻省的比较研究

本文通过对江西省周边发达省份过去和现在的国民经济发展和能源消费情况的研究,利用横向比较法来校核江西省电量预测的结果和数学模型。     

Welfare impacts of electricity generation sector reform in the Philippines

This paper reports an empirical investigation into the welfare impacts of the introduction of private sector participation into the Philippines electricity generation sector, by liberalizing the market for independent power producers (IPPs) during the power crisis of 1990–1993. This study uses a social cost and benefit analysis. The main benefits came from IPPs, who contributed to resolving the crisis, and promoted economic and social development. Consumers and investors were net gainers, while the government lost and there was an air pollution cost. The paper concludes that the reform with private sector participation increased social welfare.     

The future of electric two-wheelers and electric vehicles in China

The method of force field analysis is used to examine the future technological and market evolution of electric two-wheelers (E2W) in China. The authors identify key forces driving and resisting future E2W market growth, root causes behind these forces, and important insights about the likelihood of a wide shift to larger three- and four-wheel electric vehicles (EV). The authors conclude that the key forces driving E2W market growth are: improvements in E2W and battery technology due to product modularity and modular industry structure, strong local regulatory support in the form of gasoline-powered motorcycle bans and loose enforcement of E2W standards, and deteriorating bus public transit service. The largest forces resisting E2W market growth are strong demand for gasoline-powered motorcycles, bans on E2Ws due to safety concerns in urban areas, and growing support for public transit. The balance of these forces appears to favor E2W market growth. This growth will likely drive vehicle electrification through continued innovation in batteries and motors, the switch from lead-acid to Li-ion batteries in E2Ws, and the development of larger E2Ws and EVs. There are however strong forces resisting vehicle electrification, including battery cost, charging infrastructure, and inherent complications with large battery systems.     

Pathways for the North European electricity supply

This paper investigates the development of the electricity-supply systems in Northern Europe (Germany, UK, Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Norway) until the year 2050. The focus is on the response to an assumed common stringent CO₂-reduction target and on the role of carbon capture and storage technologies (CCS). Special emphasis is put on turn-over in capital stock, timing of investments and the infrastructural implications of large-scale introduction of CCS. The analysis is carried out through scenario analysis with the aid of a techno-economic model, in which a case including CCS is compared to a case excluding this option. The phase out of the present capital stock (power plants) is included from the Chalmers energy infrastructure databases, which gives information on present and planned power plants down to block level for plants exceeding 10 MW net electric power. Assuming technical lifetimes for these plants yield residual capacities in each year, here referred to as the phase-out pattern. CCS technologies are assumed to become commercially available in 2020.     

An exploratory game-theoretic analysis of biomass electricity generation supply chain

This study proposes a game-theoretic approach to model and analyze the process of utilizing biomass for power generation considering three players: distributor, facility developer, and participating farmer. We characterize the Nash equilibrium of the sequential game and discuss its features. A special attention is devoted to the analysis of the impact of incentives and initial target on the equilibrium, in which the biomass is part of electricity production.     

Assessment of world lithium resources and consequences of their geographic distribution on the expected development of the electric vehicle industry

Electric vehicles (EVs) are on the verge of breaking through, most presumably flooding the automotive market with lithium-ion batteries as energy storage systems. This paper investigates the availability of world lithium resources and draws conclusions on its actual impact on the EV industry. Apart from lithium deposits geographic distribution, our contributions to the global knowledge range from a short-term forecast of lithium price evolution to a picture of the existing lithium industry and market plus a detailed explanation of the geologic origins of all the inventoried lithium resources.     

The potential for segmentation of the retail market for electricity in Ireland

We estimate the gross margin that is earned from the supply of electricity to households in Ireland. Using half hourly electricity demand data, the system marginal price (also called the wholesale price) and the retail price of electricity, we analyse how the gross margin varies across customers with different characteristics. The wholesale price varies throughout the day, thus, the time at which electricity is used affects the gross margin. The main factor in determining gross margin, however, is the level of demand.The highest gross margins are earned from supplying customers that have the following characteristics: being aged between 46 and 55, having a household income of at least €75,000 per annum, being self-employed, having a third-level education, having a professional or managerial occupation, living in a household with seven or more people, living in a detached house, having at least five bedrooms or being a mortgage holder.An OLS regression shows that gross margin is partly explained by the energy conservation measures which are present in a household; the number of household members; the number of bedrooms; age; occupation; and accommodation-type.     

The price elasticity of electricity demand in South Australia

In this paper, the price elasticity of electricity demand, representing the sensitivity of customer demand to the price of electricity, has been estimated for South Australia. We first undertake a review of the scholarly literature regarding electricity price elasticity for different regions and systems. Then we perform an empirical evaluation of the historic South Australian price elasticity, focussing on the relationship between price and demand quantiles at each half-hour of the day.     

Grey prediction with rolling mechanism for electricity demand forecasting of Turkey

The need for energy supply, especially for electricity, has been increasing in the last two decades in Turkey. In addition, owing to the uncertain economic structure of the country, electricity consumption has a chaotic and nonlinear trend. Hence, electricity configuration planning and estimation has been the most critical issue of active concern for Turkey. The Turkish Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (MENR) has officially carried out energy planning studies using the Model of Analysis of the Energy Demand (MAED). In this paper, Grey prediction with rolling mechanism (GPRM) approach is proposed to predict the Turkey's total and industrial electricity consumption. GPRM approach is used because of high prediction accuracy, applicability in the case of limited data situations and requirement of little computational effort. Results show that proposed approach estimates more accurate results than the results of MAED, and have explicit advantages over extant studies. Future projections have also been done for total and industrial sector, respectively.