A methodology for territorial distribution of CO2 emission reductions in transport sector

Greenhouse gas emission reduction is the pillar of the Kyoto Protocol and one of the main goals of the European Union (UE) energy policy. National reduction targets for EU member states and an overall target for the EU‐15 (8%) were set by the Kyoto Protocol. This reduction target is based on emissions in the reference year (1990) and must be reached by 2012. EU energy policy does not set any national targets, only an overall reduction target of 20% by 2020. This paper transfers global greenhouse gas emission reduction targets in both these documents to the transport sector and specifically to CO₂ emissions. It proposes a nonlinear distribution method with objective, dynamic targets for reducing CO₂ emissions in the transport sector, according to the context and characteristics of each geographical area. First, we analyse CO₂ emissions from transport in the reference year (1990) and their evolution from 1990 to 2007. We then propose a nonlinear methodology for distributing dynamic CO₂ emission reduction targets. We have applied the proposed distribution function for 2012 and 2020 at two territorial levels (EU member states and Spanish autonomous regions). The weighted distribution is based on per capita CO₂ emissions and CO₂ emissions per gross domestic product. Finally, we show the weighted targets found for each EU member state and each Spanish autonomous region, compare them with the real achievements to date, and forecast the situation for the years the Kyoto and EU goals are to be met. The results underline the need for ‘weighted’ decentralised decisions to be made at different territorial levels with a view to achieving a common goal, so relative convergence of all the geographical areas is reached over time. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of international GHG trading regimes on penetration of new energy technologies and feasibility to implement EU Energy and Climate Package targets

The EU's new energy and environment policy - agreed by government leaders in their Council meeting in March 2007 - established a political agenda to tackle three core energy objectives: sustainability, economic competitiveness and security of supply. A triad of specific policies addresses these challenges: first, the 20/20/20 targets of the EU; then, the Second Strategic Energy Review of the European Commission; and finally, plans to liberalise energy markets. The European Union's ‘20/20/20′ targets for 2020: reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% comparing with 1990 level (to become a 30% reduction if other major global economies join), increase the share of renewables in the final energy consumption to 20% and to achieve 20% improvement in energy efficiency compared to the level in 2020 if existing trends were to continue.The aim of the paper is to analyse the feasibility of EU to implement 20/20/20 targets under the various international GHG trading regimes. GHG trading regimes were addressed by developing 10 energy scenarios until 2020 for EU by applying several energy modelling tools ranging from top down partial equilibrium to detailed technology based bottom up models.     

Impact of international climate policies on CO2 capture and storage deployment: Illustrated in the Dutch energy system

A greenhouse gas emission trading system is considered an important policy measure for the deployment of CCS at large scale. However, more insights are needed whether such a trading system leads to a sufficient high CO₂ price and stable investment environment for CCS deployment. To gain more insights, we combined WorldScan, an applied general equilibrium model for global policy analysis, and MARKAL-NL-UU, a techno-economic energy bottom-up model of the Dutch power generation sector and CO₂ intensive industry. WorldScan results show that in 2020, CO₂ prices may vary between 20 €/tCO₂ in a Grand Coalition scenario, in which all countries accept greenhouse gas targets from 2020, to 47 €/tCO₂ in an Impasse scenario, in which EU-27 continues its one-sided emission trading system without the possibility to use the Clean Development Mechanism. MARKAL-NL-UU model results show that an emission trading system in combination with uncertainty does not advance the application of CCS in an early stage, the rates at which different CO₂ abatement technologies (including CCS) develop are less crucial for introduction of CCS than the CO₂ price development, and the combination of biomass (co-)firing and CCS seems an important option to realise deep CO₂ emission reductions.     

欧盟能源转型的路径及对我国的启示

欧盟在发展低碳经济的背景下通过制定具体且严格的温室气体减排和可再生能源发展目标,大力推广各种低碳能源技术的应用,积极倡导低碳化的能源转型。欧盟能源转型的理念和行动已成为各国制定能源政策的重要参考,并引领了当前全球能源转型的主流发展方向。本文在对欧盟各国能源转型战略进行梳理的基础上,归纳了各国能源转型的核心及关键措施,分析了欧盟低碳能源发展迅速的主要原因,并总结了欧盟能源转型对我国推进能源生产和消费革命的启示。     

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of electric vehicles in European countries using integrated modeling

Electric vehicles (EVs) are considered alternatives to internal combustion engines due to their energy efficiency and contribution to CO₂ mitigation. The adoption of EVs depends on consumer preferences, including cost, social status and driving habits, although it is agreed that current and expected costs play a major role. We use a partial equilibrium model that minimizes total energy system costs to assess whether EVs can be a cost-effective option for the consumers of each EU27 member state up to 2050, focusing on the impact of different vehicle investment costs and CO₂ mitigation targets. We found that for an EU-wide greenhouse gas emission reduction cap of 40% and 70% by 2050 vis-à-vis 1990 emissions, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are cost-effective in the EU only by 2030 and only if their costs are 30% lower than currently expected. At the EU level, vehicle costs and the capability to deliver both short- and long-distance mobility are the main drivers of BEV deployment. Other drivers include each state’s national mobility patterns and the cost-effectiveness of alternative mitigation options, both in the transport sector, such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) or biofuels, and in other sectors, such as renewable electricity.     

The EU Renewables Directive—What is the fuss about trading?

Considerable argument about trading in green electricity certificates (GECs) preceded the publication of the proposed EU Renewables Directive in early 2008. The proposed Directive set a binding target of 20 per cent of EU energy to be derived from renewable energy by 2020 broken down into targets for each member state. Those arguing for trade in green certificates, called certificates of guaranteed origin (GO), included major electricity companies. However, the idea of mandatory trading was opposed by the main renewable energy industry lobby groups. The proposed Directive limited trading in accordance with the demands of the renewables industry pressure groups. Analysis suggests that if member states were forced to trade to achieve a mandatory target of 20 per cent target, then GEC prices would rise to high levels because the demand for tradeable certificates would be much higher than their supply. Trading is unlikely to improve the prospects for meeting the targets. A system of nationally based ‘feed-in tariff’ systems would not face the problems of uncertain certificate prices faced by compulsory trading in GECs.     

Pathways to Mexico’s climate change mitigation targets: A multi-model analysis

Mexico’s climate policy sets ambitious national greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets—30% versus a business-as-usual baseline by 2020, 50% versus 2000 by 2050. However, these goals are at odds with recent energy and emission trends in the country. Both energy use and GHG emissions in Mexico have grown substantially over the last two decades. We investigate how Mexico might reverse current trends and reach its mitigation targets by exploring results from energy system and economic models involved in the CLIMACAP-LAMP project. To meet Mexico’s emission reduction targets, all modeling groups agree that decarbonization of electricity is needed, along with changes in the transport sector, either to more efficient vehicles or a combination of more efficient vehicles and lower carbon fuels. These measures reduce GHG emissions as well as emissions of other air pollutants. The models find different energy supply pathways, with some solutions based on renewable energy and others relying on biomass or fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage. The economy-wide costs of deep mitigation could range from 2% to 4% of GDP in 2030, and from 7% to 15% of GDP in 2050. Our results suggest that Mexico has some flexibility in designing deep mitigation strategies, and that technological options could allow Mexico to achieve its emission reduction targets, albeit at a cost to the country.     

GHG emission trading implications on energy sector in Baltic States

The article deals with the issues related to the implementation of EU greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trading scheme in Baltic States. The main objectives of the article are to analyse the main features and requirements of EU emission trading scheme and to assess the results of the first trading GHG trading period based on verified GHG emissions in Baltic States. The main aim of the article is to compare GHG emission trading results among Baltic States and provide with some insights for the next GHG trading period and assess possible implications on energy sector of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.     

Setting SMART targets for industrial energy use and industrial energy efficiency

Industrial energy policies often require the setting of quantitative targets to reduce energy use and/or greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper a taxonomy has been developed for categorizing SMART industrial energy use or greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. The taxonomy includes volume reduction targets, physical efficiency improvement targets, economic intensity improvement targets and economic targets. This paper also provides a comprehensive overview of targets for industrial energy use or greenhouse gas emission reductions at sector or firm level in past, current and proposed future policies worldwide. This overview includes approximately 50 different emission permit systems, voluntary or negotiated agreement schemes and emission trading systems. Finally, the paper includes an assessment of the various types of targets. The target types are compared with respect to the certainty of the environmental outcome and compliance costs, the targets’ relevance for the public and for industry and their environmental integrity, as well as their complexity and potential for comparison.     

Transition towards a low carbon economy: A computable general equilibrium analysis for Poland

In the transition to sustainable economic structures the European Union assumes a leading role with its climate and energy package which sets ambitious greenhouse gas emission reduction targets by 2020. Among EU Member States, Poland with its heavy energy system reliance on coal is particularly worried on the pending trade-offs between emission regulation and economic growth. In our computable general equilibrium analysis of the EU climate and energy package we show that economic adjustment cost for Poland hinge crucially on restrictions to where-flexibility of emission abatement, revenue recycling, and technological options in the power system. We conclude that more comprehensive flexibility provisions at the EU level and a diligent policy implementation at the national level could achieve the transition towards a low carbon economy at little cost thereby broadening societal support.     

Analysis of the EU renewable energy directive by a techno-economic optimisation model

The EU renewable energy (RES) directive sets a target of increasing the share of renewable energy used in the EU to 20% by 2020. The Norwegian goal for the share of renewable energy in 2020 is 67.5%, an increase from 60.1% in 2005. The Norwegian power production is almost solely based on renewable resources and the possibility to change from fossil power plants to renewable power production is almost non-existing. Therefore other measures have to be taken to fulfil the RES directive. Possible ways for Norway to reach its target for 2020 are analysed with a technology-rich, bottom-up energy system model (TIMES-Norway). This new model is developed with a high time resolution among others to be able to analyse intermittent power production. Model results indicate that the RES target can be achieved with a diversity of options including investments in hydropower, wind power, high-voltage power lines for export, various heat pump technologies, energy efficiency measures and increased use of biodiesel in the transportation sector. Hence, it is optimal to invest in a portfolio of technology choices in order to satisfy the RES directive, and not one single technology in one energy sector.     

Building a low carbon society

This paper presents the strategy of the European Union in the field of energy and climate change. At the heart of the package are three commitments to be met by 2020: to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20%, to ensure that 20% of final energy consumption is met with renewable sources, and to raise energy efficiency by 20%. This strategy is based on the scientific consensus drawn by the International Panel for Climate Change, and implements the EU political strategy to limit the anthropogenic temperature rise to no more than 2 °C. A Directive for the geological storage of CO₂ is another integral part of the package. This should enable the development and subsequent deployment of zero emission power plants. From a research and technology perspective, the Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET-Plan) lists several energy technologies which will be required to reconcile economic growth and a vision of a decarbonised society. The EU climate and energy package and the SET-Plan are part of the solution both to the climate crisis and to the current economic and financial crisis. They represent a green “new deal” which will enhance the competitiveness of EU industry in an increasingly carbon-constrained world.     

Methodology proposal for territorial distribution of greenhouse gas reduction percentages in the EU according to the strategic energy policy goal

A 20% reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2020 is one of the main objectives of the European Union (EU) energy policy. However, this overall objective does not specify how it should be distributed among the Member States, according to each one’s particular characteristics. Consequently, in this article a non-linear distribution methodology with dynamic objective targets for reducing GHG emissions is proposed. The goal of this methodology is to promote debate over the weighting of these overall objectives, according to the context and characteristics of each member state. First, an analysis is conducted of the situation of greenhouse gas emissions in the reference year (1990) used by the EU for reaching its goal of reducing them by 20% by 2020, and its progress from 1990 to 2007. Then, the methodology proposed was applied for the year 2020 on two territorial aggregation levels following the EUROSTAT Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS), in the EU-15 and EU-27 member countries and on a regional level in 19 Spanish Autonomous Communities and Cities (NUTS-2). Weighting is done based on CO₂ intensity, GHG emissions per capita and GHG emissions per GDP. Finally, several recommendations are provided for the formulation of energy policies.     

How important are current energy mix choices on future sustainability? Case study: Belgium and Spain—projections towards 2020–2030

Despite recent consumption decrease due to recession, European electricity sector is struggling to reach ambitious targets for reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. Our objective is to carry out a macro analysis of the energy mix in two European countries: Belgium and Spain. Life Cycle Assessments are carried for 2005 as well as for seven possible referenced scenarios to reach EU and also national legal objectives at the horizon 2020 and 2030. Ambitious renewable energy sources’ deployment plans can decrease impacts on the environment significantly as those sources replace polluting traditional sources, such as coal/lignite, oil or gas. When concentrating on projections for the future in Spain, results show that a mix with little coal and oil replaced by up to 54% of RES-E energy sources could bring environmental benefits with CO₂ emissions equivalent around 0.2 kg per kWh produced (compared with 0.54 kg in 2005). In Belgium, all future scenarios presented include more coal and gas with a limited share of RES-E; those mixes present more environmental harmful impacts (up to 0.56 kg CO₂ equivalent). This is why RES-E deployment is crucial as long as it is part of an electricity mix with reduced quantities of traditional fossil fuels.     

The long-term impact of the market stability reserve on the EU emission trading system

To provide a strong price signal for greenhouse gas emissions abatement, Europe decided to strengthen the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) by implementing a market stability reserve (MSR) that includes a cancellation policy and to increase the linear reduction factor from 1.74% to 2.2% after 2020. Results of a detailed long-term investment model, formulated as a large-scale mixed complementary problem, show that this strengthened EU ETS may quadruple EUA prices and may decrease cumulative CO₂ emissions with 21.3 GtCO₂ compared to the cumulative cap before the strengthening (52.2 GtCO₂). Around 40% of this decrease (8.3 GtCO₂) is due to the increased linear reduction factor and 60% due to the cancellation policy (13 GtCO₂). Without the increased linear reduction factor, the MSR's cancellation policy would decrease emissions by only 4.1 GtCO₂, indicating their complementarity. A sensitivity analysis on key model assumptions and parameters reveals that the impact of the MSR is, however, strongly dependent on other policies (e.g., renewable energy targets, nuclear, lignite and coal phase-outs) and cost evolutions of abatement options (e.g., investment cost reductions for wind and solar power). This renders the effective CO₂ emissions cap highly uncertain. In our simulation results, cancellation volumes range between 5.6 and 17.8 GtCO₂, which is to be compared with our central estimate of 13 GtCO₂. We calculate the required linear reduction factors to achieve these CO₂ emission reductions without an MSR, which would remove all uncertainty on the cumulative CO₂ emissions and interference with other complementary climate or energy policies.     

Applying resource efficiency principles to the analysis of EU-27 bioenergy options by 2020 – Findings from a recent study for the European Environment Agency

The Renewable Energy Directive sets a target for the European Union (EU) to consume 20% of its final energy from renewable sources by 2020 and further targets are under discussion. EU renewable energy targets will lead to a substantial increase in the demand for bioenergy. As for other sectors, it is important, therefore, to apply the principles of the EU Resource efficiency roadmap to bioenergy production: producing more output with less material input and minimising adverse environmental impacts during the entire production life cycle. This paper uses that concept to analyse the most resource efficient ways for reaching the 2020 bioenergy targets (as set out in National Renewable Energy Action Plans).Scenario analysis with three different storylines is used to model environmental and land use implications plus total bioenergy potential and GHG reductions in 2020 from the agricultural, forest, and waste sectors. These storylines vary in environmental ambition level and economic and political assumptions and explore plausible bioenergy development paths. They show substantial variance in terms of environmental impact and the GHG efficiency between different bioenergy pathways.The modelling shows that under Storyline 1 bioenergy targets of the National Renewable Energy Action Plans would be achieved with CO₂ eq emissions of 44 kg GJ⁻¹, i.e. 62% less GHG emission than if the energy were generated using fossil fuels. In contrast, stricter environmental constraints in Storyline 3 lead to a substantially lower CO₂ eq burden of 25 kg GJ⁻¹, which represents an 80% reduction compared to fossil fuels.     

Impacts of CO2 emission constraints on technology selection and energy resources for power generation in Bangladesh

This paper examines the impacts of CO₂ emission reduction target and carbon tax on future technologies selection and energy use in Bangladesh power sector during 2005–2035. The analyses are based on a long-term energy system model of Bangladesh using the MARKAL framework. The analysis shows that Bangladesh will not be able to meet the future energy demand without importing energy. However, alternative policies on CO₂ emission constraints reduce the burden of imported fuel, improve energy security and reduce environmental impacts. The results show that the introduction of the CO₂ emission reduction targets and carbon taxes directly affect the shift of technologies from high carbon content fossil-based to low carbon content fossil-based and clean renewable energy-based technologies compared to the base scenario. With the cumulative CO₂ emission reduction target of 10–20% and carbon tax of 2500 Taka/ton, the cumulative net energy imports during 2005–2035 would be reduced in the range of 39–65% and 37%, respectively, compared to the base scenario emission level. The total primary energy requirement would be reduced in the range of 4.5–22.3% in the CO₂ emission reduction targets and carbon tax 2500 Taka/ton scenarios and the primary energy supply system would be diversified compared to the base scenario.     

Development forecast of renewable energy power generation in China and its influence on the GHG control strategy of the country

CO₂ emissions of the electricity supply sector in China account for about half of the total volume in the country. Thus, reducing CO₂ emissions in China’s electricity supply sector will contribute significantly to the efforts of greenhouse gas (GHG) control in the country and the rest of the world. This paper introduces the development status of renewable energy and other main CO₂ mitigation options in power generation in China and makes a preliminary prediction of the development of renewable energy in the country for future decades. Besides, based on the situation in China, the paper undertakes a comprehensive analysis of CO₂ mitigation costs, mitigation potential, and fossil energy conversation capacity of renewable energy and other mitigation options, through which the influence of renewable energy on the mitigation strategy of China is analyzed.     

Implications of CO2 reduction policies for a high carbon emitting economy

This paper uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to compare the macroeconomic and sectoral impacts of three environmental policies in Australia — an emissions trading scheme (ETS), an ETS combined with technological innovation in the renewable energy sector and a fuel tax as an alternative to the ETS. Overall, the impacts of the ETS were not significantly adverse. Although the fuel tax had similar impacts to the ETS on key macro-variables such as real GDP, employment, household consumption, exports and imports, it was however not effective compared to the latter in reducing emissions. Neither policy led to inflation growth of more than 0.8% for any coal mining and non-mining Australian state. At the sectoral level, the GDP growth of energy-intensive industries such as coal, iron ore, steel and coal-powered electricity generators is adversely affected while electricity generators who use gas and renewable energy sources and the forestry sector gain. It was also found that a 10% technological change in the renewable energy sector over a decade did not significantly improve the outcome when coupled with the ETS. Thus the Australian government's industry assistance to invest in low pollution technologies needs to be more aggressive to meet current and future international emission abatement targets.     

Interactions and implications of renewable and climate change policy on UK energy scenarios

As a response to the twin challenges of climate change mitigation and energy security, the UK government has set a groundbreaking target of reducing the UK’s economy-wide carbon emissions by 80% from 1990 levels by 2050. A second key UK energy policy is to increase the share of final energy consumption from renewables sources to 15% by 2020, as part of the wider EU Renewable Directive. The UK’s principle mechanisms to meet this renewable target are the Renewable Obligation (RO) in the electricity sector, the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO), and most recently the Renewable Heat Programme (RHP) for buildings. This study quantifies a range of policies, energy pathways, and sectoral trade-offs when combining mid- and long-term UK renewables and CO₂ reduction policies. Stringent renewable policies are the binding constraints through 2020. Furthermore, the interactions between RO, RTFO, and RHP policies drive trade-offs between low carbon electricity, bio-fuels, high efficiency natural gas, and demand reductions as well as resulting 2020 welfare costs. In the longer term, CO₂ reduction constraints drive the costs and characteristics of the UK energy system through 2050.