The impact of fiscal and other measures on new passenger car sales and CO2 emissions intensity: Evidence from Europe

This paper examines the impact of national fiscal measures in the EU (EU15) on passenger car sales and the CO₂ emissions intensity of the new car fleet over the period 1995–2004. CO₂ emissions and energy consumption from road transport have been increasing in the EU and as a result since 1999 the EU has attempted to implement a high profile policy strategy to address this problem at European level. Less prominent is the fact that Member States apply vehicle and fuel taxes, which may also be having an impact on the quantity of passenger cars sold and their CO₂ emissions intensity. Diesel vehicle sales have increased appreciably in many countries over the same period and this study makes a first attempt to examine whether Member State fiscal measures have influenced this phenomenon. This work uses a panel dataset to investigate the relationship between national vehicle and fuel taxes on new passenger car sales and the fleet CO₂ emissions intensity in EU15 over a 10-year period. Our results show that national vehicle and fuel taxes have had an impact on passenger car sales and fleet CO₂ emissions intensity and that different taxes have disparate effects.     

Examining fuel economy and carbon standards for light vehicles

This paper examines fuel economy and carbon standards for light vehicles (passenger cars and light trucks), discussing the rationale for standards, appropriate degrees of stringency and timing, regulatory structure, and ways to deal with “real world” fuel economy issues that may not be dealt with by the standards. There is no optimum method of establishing the stringency of a standard, but policymakers can be informed by analyses of technology cost-effectiveness from the viewpoint of different actors (e.g., society, vehicle purchasers) and of “top runners”—vehicles in the current fleet, or projections of future leading vehicles, that can serve as models for average vehicles some years later. The focus of the paper is on the US light vehicle fleet, with some discussion of applications to the European Union. A “leading edge” midsize car for the 2020 timeframe is identified, and various types of attribute-based standards are discussed. For the US, a 12–15 year target for new vehicle fleet improvement of 30–50% seems a reasonable starting point for negotiations. For 2030 or so, doubling current fuel economy is possible. In both cases, adjustments must be made in response to changing economic circumstances and government and societal priorities.     

Meeting U.S. passenger vehicle fuel economy standards in 2016 and beyond

New fuel economy standards require new U.S. passenger vehicles to achieve at least 34.1 miles per gallon (MPG) on average by model year 2016, up from 28.8 MPG today. In this paper, the magnitude, combinations and timings of the changes required in U.S. vehicles that are necessary in order to meet the new standards, as well as a target of doubling the fuel economy within the next two decades are explored. Scenarios of future vehicle characteristics and sales mix indicate that the 2016 mandate is aggressive, requiring significant changes starting from today. New vehicles must forgo horsepower improvements, become lighter, and a greater number will use advanced, more fuel-efficient powertrains, such as smaller turbocharged engines, hybrid-electric drives. Achieving a factor-of-two increase in fuel economy by 2030 is also challenging, but more feasible since the auto industry will have more lead time to respond. A discussion on the feasibility of meeting the new fuel economy mandate is included, considering vehicle production planning realities and challenges in deploying new vehicle technologies into the market.     

Oil consumption and CO2 emissions in China's road transport: current status,future trends,and policy implications

With the rapid economic growth in China, the Chinese road transport system is becoming one of the largest and most rapidly growing oil consumers in China. This paper attempts to present the current status and forecast the future trends of oil demand and CO₂ emissions from the Chinese road transport sector and to explore possible policy measures to contain the explosive growth of Chinese transport oil consumption. A bottom-up model was developed to estimate the historical oil consumption and CO₂ emissions from China's road transport sector between 1997 and 2002 and to forecast future trends in oil consumption and CO₂ emissions up to 2030. To explore the importance of policy options of containing the dramatic growth in Chinese transport oil demand, three scenarios regarding motor vehicle fuel economy improvements were designed in predicting future oil use and CO₂ emissions. We conclude that China's road transportation will gradually become the largest oil consumer in China in the next two decades but that improvements in vehicle fuel economy have potentially large oil-saving benefits. In particular, if no control measures are implemented, the annual oil demand by China's road vehicles will reach 363 million tons by 2030. On the other hand, under the low- and high-fuel economy improvement scenarios, 55 and 85 million tons of oil will be saved in 2030, respectively. The scenario analysis suggests that China needs to implement vehicle fuel economy improvement measures immediately in order to contain the dramatic growth in transport oil consumption. The imminent implementation is required because (1) China is now in a period of very rapid growth in motor vehicle sales; (2) Chinese vehicles currently in the market are relatively inefficient; and (3) the turnover of a fleet of inefficient motor vehicles will take a long time.     

Fuel demand on UK roads and dieselisation of fuel economy

Because of high oil prices, and climate change policy, governments are now seeking ways to improve new car fuel economy thus contributing to air quality and energy security. One strategy is to increase dieselisation rates of the vehicle fleet. Recent trends in fuel economy show improvement since 1995, however, efforts need to go further if the EU Voluntary Agreement targets on CO₂ (a greenhouse gas emission standard) are to be achieved. Trends show diesel car sales have accelerated rapidly and that the advantage of new car fuel economy of diesel cars over gasoline ones is narrowing posing a new challenge. We estimate the demand for new car fuel economy in the UK. In the long-run consumers buy fuel economy, but not in the short-run. We found that long-term income and price changes were the main drivers to achieve improvements particularly for diesel cars and that there is no break in the trend of fuel economy induced by the agreement adopted in the 1990s. Policy should target more closely both consumer choice of, and use of, diesel cars.     

New fuel consumption standards for Chinese passenger vehicles and their effects on reductions of oil use and CO2 emissions of the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet

A new fuel consumption standard for passenger vehicles in China, the so-called Phase 3 standard, was approved technically in 2009 and will take effect in 2012. This standard aims to introduce advanced energy-saving technologies into passenger vehicles and to reduce the average fuel consumption rate of Chinese new passenger vehicle fleet in 2015 to 7 L/100 km. The Phase 3 standard follows the evaluating system by specifying fuel consumption targets for sixteen individual mass-based classes. Different from compliance with the Phases 1 and 2 fuel consumption standards, compliance of the Phase 3 standard is based on corporate average fuel consumption (CAFC) rates for individual automobile companies. A transition period from 2012 to 2014 is designed for manufacturers to gradually adjust their production plans and introduce fuel-efficient technologies. In this paper, we, the designers of the Phase 3 standard, present the design of the overall fuel consumption reduction target, technical feasibility, and policy implications of the Phase 3 standard. We also explore several enforcement approaches for the Phase 3 standard with financial penalties of non-compliance as a priority. Finally, we estimate the overall effect of the Phase 3 standard on oil savings and CO₂ emission reductions.     

Dazzled by diesel? The impact on carbon dioxide emissions of the shift to diesels in Europe through 2009

This paper identifies trends in new gasoline and diesel passenger car characteristics in the European Union between 1995 and 2009. By 2009 diesels had captured over 55% of the new vehicle market. While the diesel version of a given car model may have as much as 35% lower fuel use/km and 25% lower CO₂ emissions than its gasoline equivalent, diesel buyers have chosen increasingly large and more powerful cars than the gasoline market. As a result, new diesels bought in 2009 had only 2% lower average CO₂ emissions than new gasoline cars, a smaller advantage than in 1995. A Laspeyres decomposition investigates which factors were important contributors to the observed emission reductions and which factors offset savings in other areas. More than 95% of the reduction in CO₂ emissions per km from new vehicles arose because both diesel and gasoline new vehicle emissions/km fell, and only 5% arose because of the shift from gasoline to diesel technology. Increases in vehicle mass and power for both gasoline and diesel absorbed much of the technological efficiency improvements offered by both technologies. We also observe changes in the gasoline and diesel fleets in eight EU countries and find changes in fuel and emissions intensities consistent with the changes in new vehicles reported. While diesel cars continue to be driven far farther than gasoline cars, we attribute only some of this difference to a “rebound effect”. We conclude that while diesel technology has permitted significant fuel savings, the switch from gasoline to diesel in the new vehicle market contributed little itself to the observed reductions in CO₂ emissions from new vehicles.     

Fuel conservation and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet

Passenger vehicles are the main consumers of gasoline in China. We established a bottom-up model which focuses on the simulation of energy consumptions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions growth by China’s passenger vehicle fleet. The fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation effects of five measures including constraining vehicle registration, reducing vehicle travel, strengthening fuel consumption rate (FCR) limits, vehicle downsizing and promoting electric vehicle (EV) penetration were evaluated. Based on the combination of these measures, the fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet were analyzed. Under reference scenario with no measures implemented, the fuel consumptions and life cycle GHG emissions will reach 520 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) and 2.15 billion tons in 2050, about 8.1 times the level in 2010. However, substantial fuel conservation can be achieved by implementing the measures. By implementing all five measures together, the fuel consumption will reach 138 Mtoe in 2030 and decrease to 126 Mtoe in 2050, which is only 37.1% and 24.3% of the consumption under reference scenario. Similar potential lies in GHG mitigation. The results and scenarios provided references for the Chinese government’s policy-making.     

Advanced vehicles: Costs, energy use, and macroeconomic impacts

Advanced vehicles and alternative fuels could play an important role in reducing oil use and changing the economy structure. We developed the Costs for Advanced Vehicles and Energy (CAVE) model to investigate a vehicle portfolio scenario in California during 2010-2030. Then we employed a computable general equilibrium model to estimate macroeconomic impacts of the advanced vehicle scenario on the economy of California. Results indicate that, due to slow fleet turnover, conventional vehicles are expected to continue to dominate the on-road fleet and gasoline is the major transportation fuel over the next two decades. However, alternative fuels could play an increasingly important role in gasoline displacement. Advanced vehicle costs are expected to decrease dramatically with production volume and technological progress; e.g., incremental costs for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen could break even with gasoline savings in 2028. Overall, the vehicle portfolio scenario is estimated to have a slightly negative influence on California's economy, because advanced vehicles are very costly and, therefore, the resulting gasoline savings generally cannot offset the high incremental expenditure on vehicles and alternative fuels. Sensitivity analysis shows that an increase in gasoline price or a drop in alternative fuel prices could offset a portion of the negative impact.     

How private car purchasing trends offset efficiency gains and the successful energy policy response

In 2006, energy-related CO₂ emissions from transport energy in Ireland were 168% above 1990 levels. Private cars were responsible for approx 45% of transport energy demand in 2006 (excluding fuel tourism). The average annual growth of new cars between 1990 and 2006 was 5.2%. This paper focuses on these new cars entering the private car fleet, in particular the purchasing trend towards larger size cars. This has considerably offset the improvements in the technical efficiency of individual car models. The analysis was carried out on the detailed data of each individual new vehicle entering the fleet in 2000–2006. The average CO₂ emissions per kilometre for new petrol cars entering the Irish fleet grew from 166 to 168 g CO₂/km from 2000 to 2005 and reduced to 164 in 2006. For diesel cars the average reduced from 166 in 2000 to 161 in 2006. The paper also discusses how a recent change in vehicle registration taxation and annual motor tax had a significant impact purchasing trends by supporting lower emission vehicles. Cars with emissions up to 155 g CO₂/km represented 41% of new private cars sold in Ireland in 2007 compared with 84% during the period July–November 2008.     

Fuel consumption for road transport in the USA - a comment

A recent article in this journal econometrically estimated the relationship between US car and truck fuel economy and the price of fuel, without considering the effect of legally mandated fuel economy standards for new vehicles. There is considerable evidence that the standards have played an important role in recent fuel economy improvements. An alternative approach to estimating the fuel price responsiveness of new vehicle fuel economy based on vehicle sales data and capital operating cost trade-off analysis of fuel efficient vehicle design and technology suggests short-and long-run elasticities in the vicinity of 0.25 and 0.5, respectively.     

Impact assessment of road fleet transitions on emissions: The case study of a medium European size country

This paper aims to examine the impacts of fleet composition changes on emission due to the introduction of different road transportation policies in a medium size European country (Portugal) applying an ex-post analysis (e.g. policies based on fuel pricing, car scraping, car taxation). A baseline scenario was compared with a counterfactual scenario in order to understand what would occur in the absence of the introduction of those policies. For each scenario, four approaches were assessed using economic effects and/or human health costs. HC, CO, NO_x, PM and CO₂ emissions from passenger cars and light duty vehicles were evaluated. The results show high statistical significance (p≤0.05) between CO emissions and different vehicle features as vehicle age, fuel type and engine classes. The same pattern was observed between the average vehicle age and HC, NO_x and PM. After the implementation of road traffic policies, the average emission factors of the fleet decreased 28–62% for HC, CO, NO_x, PM and 20–39% for CO₂. However, if a counterfactual scenario would be implemented, the reduction would be 20–80% and 26–55% higher, respectively. The results demonstrates that although were recorded some benefits, the fleet characteristics distribution were more environmental friendly in 2001 than in 2011.     

Deployment of fuel cell vehicles in China: Greenhouse gas emission reductions from converting the heavy-duty truck fleet from diesel and natural gas to hydrogen

Hydrogen fuel cells, as an energy source for heavy duty vehicles, are gaining attention as a potential carbon mitigation strategy. Here we calculate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the Chinese heavy-duty truck fleet under four hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty truck penetration scenarios from 2020 through 2050. We introduce Aggressive, Moderate, Conservative and No Fuel Cell Vehicle (No FCV) scenarios. Under these four scenarios, the market share of heavy-duty trucks powered by fuel cells will reach 100%, 50%, 20% and 0%, respectively, in 2050. We go beyond previous studies which compared differences in GHG emissions from different hydrogen production pathways. We now combine an analysis of the carbon intensity of various hydrogen production pathways with predictions of the future hydrogen supply structure in China along with various penetration rates of heavy-duty fuel cell vehicles. We calculate the associated carbon intensity per vehicle kilometer travelled of the hydrogen used in heavy-duty trucks in each scenario, providing a practical application of our research. Our results indicate that if China relies only on fuel economy improvements, with the projected increase in vehicle miles travelled, the GHG emissions of the heavy-duty truck fleet will continue to increase and will remain almost unchanged after 2025. The Aggressive, Moderate and Conservative FCV Scenarios will achieve 63%, 30% and 12% reductions, respectively, in GHG emissions in 2050 from the heavy duty truck fleet compared to the No FCV Scenario. Additional reductions are possible if the current source of hydrogen from fossil fuels was displaced with increased use of hydrogen from water electrolysis using non-fossil generated electricity.     

The role of hydrogen cars in the economy of California

Hydrogen has been proposed as an alternative transportation fuel that could reduce energy consumption and eliminate tailpipe emissions when used in fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). To investigate the potential effects of hydrogen vehicles on California’s economy over the next two decades, we employed the modified Costs for Advanced Vehicles and Energy (CAVE) model and a California-specific computable general equilibrium model. Results indicate that, even in the aggressive scenario, hydrogen cars can only account for a minor fraction of the on-road fleet through 2030. Although new sales could drop sharply, conventional gasoline cars and carryover pre-2010 vehicles are still expected to dominate the on-road vehicle stock and consume the majority of transportation energy through 2030. Transportation energy consumption could decline dramatically, mainly because of the fuel economy advantage of FCVs over conventional cars. Both moderate and aggressive hydrogen scenarios are estimated to have a slightly negative influence on California’s economy. However, the negative economic impacts could be lessened as the market for hydrogen and FCVs builds up. Based on the economic optimization model, both hydrogen scenarios would have a negative economic impact on California’s oil refining sector and, as expected, a positive impact on the other directly related sectors that contribute to either hydrogen production or FCV manufacturing.     

Realistic simulation of fuel economy and life cycle metrics for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles

The present work contributes an engineered life cycle assessment (LCA) of hydrogen fuel cell passenger vehicles based on a real‐world driving cycle for semi‐urban driving conditions. A new customized LCA tool is developed for the comparison of conventional gasoline and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), which utilizes a dynamic vehicle simulation approach to calculate realistic, fundamental science based fuel economy data from actual drive cycles, vehicle specifications, road grade, engine performance, fuel cell degradation effects, and regenerative braking. The total greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and life cycle cost of the vehicles are compared for the case of hydrogen production by electrolysis in British Columbia, Canada. A 72% reduction in total GHG emission is obtained for switching from gasoline vehicles to FCVs. While fuel cell performance degradation causes 7% and 3% increases in lifetime fuel consumption and GHG emission, respectively, regenerative braking improves the fuel economy by 23% and reduces the total GHG emission by 10%. The cost assessment results indicate that the current FCV technology is approximately $2,100 more costly than the equivalent gasoline vehicle based on the total lifetime cost including purchase and fuel cost. However, prospective enhancements in fuel cell durability could potentially reduce the FCV lifetime cost below that of gasoline vehicles. Overall, the present results indicate that fuel cell vehicles are becoming both technologically and economically viable compared with incumbent vehicles, and provide a realistic option for deep reductions in emissions from transportation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of fuel cell vehicle deployment on road transport greenhouse gas emissions: The China case

Considerable attention has been paid to energy security and climate problems caused by road vehicle fleets. Fuel cell vehicles provide a new solution for reducing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, especially those from heavy-duty trucks. Although cost may become the key issue in fuel cell vehicle development, with technological improvements and cleaner pathways for hydrogen production, fuel cell vehicles will exhibit great potential of cost reduction. In accordance with the industrial plan in China, this study introduces five scenarios to evaluate the impact of fuel cell vehicles on the road vehicle fleet greenhouse gas emissions in China. Under the most optimistic scenario, greenhouse gas emissions generated by the whole fleet will decrease by 13.9% compared with the emissions in a scenario with no fuel cell vehicles, and heavy-duty truck greenhouse gas emissions will decrease by nearly one-fifth. Greenhouse gas emissions intensity of hydrogen production will play an essential role when fuel cell vehicles' fuel cycle greenhouse gas emissions are calculated; therefore, hydrogen production pathways will be critical in the future.     

Atmospheric emissions from road transportation in India

India has become one of the biggest emitters of atmospheric pollutants from the road transportation sector globally. Here we present an up-to-date inventory of the exhaust emissions of ten species. This inventory has been calculated bottom-up from the vehicle mileage, differentiating by seven vehicle categories, four age/technology layers and three fuel types each, for the seven biggest cities as well as for the whole nation. The age composition of the rolling fleet has been carefully modelled, deducting about one quarter of vehicles still registered but actually out-of-service. The vehicle mileage is calibrated to the national fuel consumption which is essential to limit uncertainties. Sensitivity analyses reveal the primary impact of the emission factors and the secondary influence of vehicle mileage and stock composition on total emissions. Emission estimates since 1980 are reviewed and qualified. A more comprehensive inspection and maintenance is essential to limit pollutant emissions; this must properly include commercial vehicles. They are also the most important vehicle category to address when fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions shall be contained.     

Electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles influence on CO2 and water vapour emissions

The main objective of this research is to quantify the impact of introducing electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles, including fuel cell on conventional fleets. The impact is estimated in terms of local pollutants, HC, CO, NO_x, PM, and in terms of CO₂ and water vapour global emissions. The specific fleet of Portugal, roughly 6 million light-duty vehicles (30% diesel, 70% gasoline) is considered, and the mobility indicator of the fleet, 90 thousand million p × km, is kept constant throughout the analysis. Probability density functions for energy consumption and emissions are derived for conventional, electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, in charge depleting and charge sustaining modes. The Monte Carlo method is used to obtain average distribution estimates for discounting values of “old vehicles” that are removed from the fleet, and to add average distribution estimates for the “new vehicles” entering the fleet. Considering the actual Portuguese fleet as the reference case, local pollutant emissions decrease by a factor of 10-53%, for 50% fleet replacement. A potential 23% decrease of CO₂ is foreseen, and a potential 31% increase of H₂O emissions is forecasted. Life cycle water vapour emissions tend to rise and are, typically, 2-4 times higher than CO₂ values at the upstream stage, due to its release in the cooling towers of thermal power plants. It is interesting to note that considering 1 MJ of energy required at vehicle wheels, in an overall life cycle context, both fuel cell and electric modes have nearly twice as much H₂O emissions than internal combustion vehicles. CO₂ emissions tend to decrease with electric drive vehicles penetration due to the higher fleet life cycle efficiency.     

Structure and impacts of fuel economy standards for passenger cars in China

By the end of 2006, there were about 24 million total passenger cars on the roads in China, nearly three times as many as in 2001. To slow the increase in energy consumption by these cars, China began implementing passenger car fuel economy standards in two phases beginning in 2005. Phase 1 fuel consumption limits resulted in a sales-weighted new passenger car average fuel consumption decrease of about 11%, from just over 9 l/100 km to approximately 8 l/100 km, from 2002 to 2006. However, we project that upon completion of Phase 2 limits in 2009, the average fuel consumption of new passenger cars in China may drop only by an additional 1%, to approximately 7.9 l/100 km. This is due to the fact that a majority of cars sold in 2006 already meets the stricter second phase fuel consumption limits. Simultaneously, other trends in the Chinese vehicle market, including increases in average curb weight and increases in standards-exempt imported vehicles, threaten to offset the efficiency gains achieved from 2002 to 2006. It is clear that additional efforts and policies beyond Phase 2 fuel consumption limits are required to slow and, ultimately, reverse the trend of rapidly rising energy consumption and greenhouse gases from China's transportation sector.     

Modelling future private car energy demand in Ireland

Targeted measures influencing vehicle technology are increasingly a tool of energy policy makers within the EU as a means of meeting energy efficiency, renewable energy, climate change and energy security goals. This paper develops the modelling capacity for analysing and evaluating such legislation, with a focus on private car energy demand. We populate a baseline car stock and car activity model for Ireland to 2025 using historical car stock data. The model takes account of the lifetime survival profile of different car types, the trends in vehicle activity over the fleet and the fuel price and income elasticities of new car sales and total fleet activity. The impacts of many policy alternatives may only be simulated by such a bottom-up approach, which can aid policy development and evaluation. The level of detail achieved provides specific insights into the technological drivers of energy consumption, thus aiding planning for meeting climate targets. This paper focuses on the methodology and baseline scenario. Baseline results for Ireland forecast a decline in private car energy demand growth (0.2%, compared with 4% in the period 2000–2008), caused by the relative growth in fleet efficiency compared with activity.