Potential role of power authorities in offshore wind power development in the US

This article examines how power authorities could facilitate and manage offshore wind power development in US coastal waters. The power authority structure is an American 20th century institution for managing energy resources—a form of a public authority or public corporation dedicated to creating, operating and maintaining electric generation and transmission infrastructure. Offshore wind power is characterized by high capital costs but no fuel costs and thus low operating costs. Therefore a power authority, by virtue of its access to low-cost capital and managerial flexibility, could facilitate offshore wind power development by reducing financial risk of developing and lowering debt payments, thus improving the risk profile and lowering the cost of electricity production. Additionally, power authorities can be made up of multiple states, thus opening the possibility for joint action by neighboring coastal states. Using primary and secondary data, we undertake an in-depth analysis of the potential benefits and shortcomings of a power authority approach.     

The offshore trend: Structural changes in the wind power sector

In recent years, the wind power sector has begun to move offshore, i.e. to use space and good wind speeds on the open sea for large scale electricity generation. Offshore wind power, however, is not just technologically challenging but also a capital intensive and risky business that requires particular financial and organizational resources not all potential investors might have. We therefore address the question, what impact offshore wind power may have on ownership and organizational structures in the wind power sector. We compare on- and offshore wind park ownership in Denmark, the UK and Germany. The analysis shows that offshore wind power in all three countries is dominated by large firms, many of which are from the electricity sector. In Denmark and the UK, also investors from the gas and oil industry play an important role in the offshore wind business. This development represents a major shift for countries such as Germany and Denmark, in which the wind power sector has grown and matured on the basis of investments by individuals, farmers, cooperatives and independent project developers. The structural changes by which offshore wind power is accompanied have consequences for turbine manufacturers, project developers, investors, associations and policy makers in the field.     

The UK offshore wind power programme: A sea-change in UK energy policy?

The British offshore windfarm programme presages the emergence of Britain as more of a leader than a laggard in renewables, the latter being the status it has hitherto endured in comparison to countries such as Denmark, Germany and Spain. Britain looks increasingly likely to exceed 20% of electricity being supplied from renewable energy by 2020, provided there continues to be adequate financial incentives for renewable energy. This turnaround is associated with increased British concerns about energy dependence on imported natural gas as well as pressure from EU legislation. However there are many planning pressures that countervail the drive for offshore wind power. British planning policy on offshore wind is distinctive (compared to other EU states) for its pragmatic, ‘criteria based’, approach that appears to favour offshore wind power development. The extent of the British offshore wind power programme is likely to depend heavily on consumer reactions to price increases caused by the offshore wind power programme.     

Optimal operation of a wind-electrolytic hydrogen storage system in the electricity/hydrogen markets

Wind power, the most promising renewable energy source in the world, plays an important role in the electricity markets. Wind power curtailment cannot be avoided in some countries due to its output has a special feature of randomness and volatility. Since the excess wind power being converted into hydrogen and sold to the hydrogen market will be the future trend. This study proposes a wind-electrolytic hydrogen storage system to participate in the electricity/hydrogen markets for selling electricity and hydrogen, which can help to improve the benefits of wind power in the electricity markets and addree the wind power curtailment effectively. With considering the uncertainties of wind power outputs and electricity prices, the optimal operation strategy is proposed with the objective of maximizing profits. The scenario-based stochastic method is adopted to describe the uncertainties, and the financial risk is evaluated using conditional value-at-risk. The operational problem of the proposed system is formulated into a mixed-integer linear programming model. Finally, the feasibility of the proposed operational strategy is validated by a case study. The results show that the expected revenue increases with the increase of the hydrogen selling price, indicating that investors can obtain profits by converting electricity into hydrogen. The optimal expected revenue increases by 33.42% when hydrogen price increases from 1.2 DKK/kWh to 1.8 DKK/kWh and the risk factor is equal to 0. Based on the analysis of the results, the importance of hydrogen can be proven.     

基于CVaR方法的风力发电项目投资风险度量

风力发电项目具备较为独立的特点,将CVaR方法引入风力发电项目的投资风险度量,不仅可以全面衡量技术风险、经济风险、政策风险等相关风险因素,同时可以最大限度地考虑投资者的损失承受底线。借助蒙特卡洛方法模拟风力发电的上网电量,很好地计量了风力发电的不确定性所带来的风险。以内蒙古地区某一风力发电项目为实例,分别计算了其VaR值和CVaR值。计算结果表明,CVaR方法能够更加谨慎有效地估计风力发电项目投资者的潜在损失。文章进一步研究了贴现率和电价等风险因素对风力发电项目整体风险的影响,认为较低的贴现率和较高的电价水平能够帮助投资者很好地规避投资风险。     

Interconnector capacity allocation in offshore grids with variable wind generation

Different capacity allocation regimes have a strong impact on the economics of offshore wind farms and on interconnectors in offshore grids. Integrating offshore generation in offshore grids is currently a subject of discussion for different regions, e.g. the North Sea. A novel question is how the interconnector capacity should be allocated for wind generation and for international power trading. The main difficulty arises from the stochastic nature of wind generation: in a case with radial connections to the national coast, the wind park owner has the possibility of aggregating the offshore wind park with onshore installations to reduce balancing demand. This is not necessarily the case if the interconnector capacity is sold through implicit or explicit auctions. Different design options are discussed and quantified for a number of examples based on Danish, Dutch, German and Norwegian power markets. It is concluded that treating offshore generation as a single price zone within the interconnector reduces the wind operator's ability to pool it with other generation. Furthermore, a single offshore price zone between two markets will always receive the lower spot market price of the neighbouring zones, although its generation flows only to the high‐price market. Granting the high‐price market income for wind generation as the opposite design option reduces congestion rents. Otherwise, compensation measures through support schemes or different balancing responsibilities may be discussed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of wind power on electricity prices

This paper investigates the impact of wind power on electricity prices using a production cost model of the Independent System Operator – New England power system. Different scenarios in terms of wind penetration, wind forecasts, and wind curtailment are modeled in order to analyze the impact of wind power on electricity prices for different wind penetration levels and for different levels of wind power visibility and controllability. The analysis concludes that electricity price volatility increases even as electricity prices decrease with increasing wind penetration levels. The impact of wind power on price volatility is larger in the shorter term (5-min compared to hour-to-hour). The results presented show that over-forecasting wind power increases electricity prices while under-forecasting wind power reduces them. The modeling results also show that controlling wind power by allowing curtailment increases electricity prices, and for higher wind penetrations it also reduces their volatility.     

考虑风电并网的分时段短期电价预测

考虑了并网风电量对电价影响,并将相关系数作为选取电价影响因素的标准,考虑了历史电价、负荷、并网风电量与负荷的比值等影响电价的因素。分别将负荷与历史清算电价,等效负荷与历史清算电价,负荷、并网风电量与负荷的比值及历史清算电价作为神经网络的输入因子对市场清算电价进行分时段预测。算例采用丹麦电力市场的历史数据,分别对其2010年并网风电量所占比例较大和较小的日期进行预测,验证了选择负荷、并网风电量与负荷的比值及历史清算电价作为预测神经网络的输入变量是恰当的,其预测精度能够满足电力市场实际运行的需要。     

Optimizing hybrid offshore wind farms for cost-competitive hydrogen production in Germany

Nearly 96% of the world's current hydrogen production comes from fossil-fuel-based sources, contributing to global greenhouse gas emissions. Hydrogen is often discussed as a critical lever in decarbonizing future power systems. Producing hydrogen using unsold offshore wind electricity may offer a low-carbon production pathway and emerging business model. This study investigates whether participating in an ancillary service market is cost competitive for offshore wind-based hydrogen production. It also determines the optimal size of a hydrogen electrolyser relative to an offshore wind farm. Two flexibility strategies for offshore wind farms are developed in this study: an optimal bidding strategy into ancillary service markets for offshore wind farms that build hydrogen production facilities and optimal sizing of Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH) facilities at wind farms. Using empirical European power market and wind generation data, the study finds that offshore-wind based hydrogen must participate in ancillary service markets to generate net positive revenues at current levels of wind generation to become cost competitive in Germany. The estimated carbon abatement cost of “green” hydrogen ranges between 187 EUR/tonCO₂e and 265 EUR/tonCO₂e. Allowing hydrogen producers to receive similar subsidies as offshore wind farms that produce only electricity could facilitate further cost reduction. Utilizing excess and intermittent offshore wind highlights one possible pathway that could achieve increasing returns on greenhouse gas emission reductions due to technological learning in hydrogen production, even under conditions where low power prices make offshore wind less competitive in the European electricity market.     

Trading wind energy on the basis of probabilistic forecasts both of wind generation and of market quantities

Wind power is not easily predictable and non‐dispatchable. Nevertheless, wind power producers are increasingly urged to participate in electricity market auctions in the same manner as conventional power producers. The aim of this paper is to propose an operational strategy for trading wind energy in liberalized electricity markets and to assess its performance. At first, the so‐called optimal quantile strategy is revisited. It is proved that without market power, i.e. under the price‐taker assumption, this strategy maximizes expected market revenues. Forecasts of wind power production, of day‐ahead and real‐time market prices and of the system imbalance are inputs to this strategy. Subsequently, constraining of the bid that maximizes the expected revenues is proposed as a way to overcome the strategy's disregard of practical limitations and, at the same time, of risk. Two constraining techniques are introduced: constraining in the decision space and in the probability space. Finally, the trade of a wind power producer is simulated in a test case for the Eastern Danish (DK‐2) price area of the Nordic Power Exchange (Nord Pool) during a 10 month period in 2008. The results of the test case show the financial benefits of the aforementioned strategy as well as the consequent interaction with the electricity market. This study will support a demonstration in the framework of the EU project ANEMOS.plus. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

风电与燃气轮机互补发电系统发电成本分析

在采用风电场与小型燃气轮机组成的互补系统发电特性参数的基础上,详细分析了互补系统发电成本的构成和各自的计算方法。采用新疆达坂城风电场的风速数据,基于互补系统的发电特性参数和风电场与燃气轮机电站的发电成本构成,应用改进过的等额支付折算法,在当前的技术条件和价格下,计算了风电场子系统和燃气轮机电站子系统各自的折旧成本、燃料成本和运行维护成本,得到了整滚发电系统发电成本的计算方法,为在新疆地区实现这种互补发电系统提供经济分析基础。     

偏差电量考核下风光储混合发电商的市场均衡博弈研究

为了更直观地分析风光储混合发电商对市场均衡博弈结果和市场力的影响,在偏差电量考核衡量风光储混合发电出力随机波动性的基础上,综合考虑各发电商的出力限制和储能系统的运行约束,建立以风光储混合发电商和传统发电商收益最大化为目标的市场均衡博弈模型,调用CPLEX软件求解利用非线性互补函数处理得到的混合整数规划模型,并对比分析了风光储混合发电商作为价格接受者和影响者参与电力市场竞争对均衡博弈电价和投标出力的影响。结果表明,风光储混合发电商参与电力市场竞争可抑制传统发电商的市场力,对电价有显著的"削峰填谷"作用;当风光储混合发电商作为价格影响者时,对电价的影响会减弱,但其收益有所增加。     

Market and regulatory aspects of trans‐national offshore electricity networks for wind power interconnection

Subsea cable connections are an essential part of offshore wind power projects. Apart from direct connections between an offshore wind park to the national grid, several alternatives can be envisaged, including the connection to interconnectors between countries or direct connection to a country outside the jurisdiction where the wind park is based. Besides the technical‐economical constraints of these new types of grid connection, market and regulatory aspects need to be assessed. The paper gives an overview of these trans‐national connection schemes for wind power and considers integration into electricity markets and discusses regulatory implications. The scope of the research is Western Europe. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A combined modeling approach for wind power feed-in and electricity spot prices

Wind power generation and its impacts on electricity prices has strongly increased in the EU. Therefore, appropriate mark-to-market evaluation of new investments in wind power and energy storage plants should consider the fluctuant generation of wind power and uncertain electricity prices, which are affected by wind power feed-in (WPF). To gain the input data for WPF and electricity prices, simulation models, such as econometric models, can serve as a data basis.This paper describes a combined modeling approach for the simulation of WPF series and electricity prices considering the impacts of WPF on prices based on an autoregressive approach. Thereby WPF series are firstly simulated for each hour of the year and integrated in the electricity price model to generate an hourly resolved price series for a year. The model results demonstrate that the WPF model delivers satisfying WPF series and that the extended electricity price model considering WPF leads to a significant improvement of the electricity price simulation compared to a model version without WPF effects. As the simulated series of WPF and electricity prices also contain the correlation between both series, market evaluation of wind power technologies can be accurately done based on these series.     

The economics of large-scale wind power in the UK A model of an optimally mixed CEGB electricity grid

Previous calculations of the economics of large-scale wind power have been generally limited to the evaluation of the marginal cost of energy, assuming that the addition of a wind farm to an electricity grid does not change the mix of base, intermediate and peak load plant in that grid. Here a simple but powerful numerical generation planning model has been constructed for grids containing wind farms and three classes of thermal power station, but no storage. Electricity demand and available power are specified by empirically based probability distribution functions and the plant mix which minimizes the total annualized costs of the generating system is determined. Capacity credit of wind power is automatically taken into account in the optimization. Using the model, the breakeven costs of wind energy in a model British CEGB grid, containing coal, nuclear, oil and wind driven power plant, are evaluated under various conditions. For a wide range of parameter values, large-scale wind power is likely to be economically competitive in this grid.     

世界风力发电现状与前景预测

全球可再生能源发电装机容量中风电占有压倒性优势,今后可望成为欧洲、亚洲、北美的主要电力来源.2011年中国以62GW的累计装机容量蝉联世界第一,按照我国“十二五”规划目标,预计到2015年风电装机容量将达到1×108kW,年发电量1900×108kW·h.GWEC和Greenpeace预测,今后20年风力发电将成为世界主力电源,2030年装机容量有可能达到23×108kW,可供应世界电力需求的22％.欧美正大力开发海上风电产业.欧洲是世界海上风电发展的先驱和产业中心,欧洲企业不仅拥有自己的核心技术,而且还向世界各地输出技术,今后欧洲海上风力发电将急速增长.美国采取与英国、德国等欧洲厂家相同的战略,大力发展海上风力发电.我国海上风电产业刚刚起步,预计2015年海上风电装机500×104kW.日本学者大岛教授推算了不同电源的发电成本:包括政府财政补贴,运行年限30年的核电站发电成本为12.06日元/(kW·h);按标准设备利用率,风力发电成本11.30日元/(kW·h),与核电相比已经有竞争力.假设风况好时设备利用率达到35％,发电成本为7.95日元/(kW·h),比核电低得多.     

Assessing offshore wind resources: An accessible methodology

This paper describes a method for assessing the electric production and value of wind resources, specifically for the offshore environment. Three steps constitute our method. First, we map the available area, delimiting bathymetric areas based on turbine tower technology, then assess competing uses of the ocean to establish exclusion zones. From exclusion zones, bathymetry, and turbine tower water depth limitations, the water sheet area available for wind turbines is calculated. The second step is calculation of power production starting from available area, which determines the location and count of turbines. Then existing wind data are extrapolated to turbine height and, along with the turbine power output curve, they are used to establish the expected electric power production on an hourly basis. The third step calculates market value based on the hourly electric market at the nearest electric grid node.To illustrate these methods, we assess the offshore wind resource of the US state of Delaware. We find year-round average output of over 5200 MW, or about four times the average electrical consumption of the state. On local wholesale electricity markets, this would produce just over $2 billion/year in revenue.Because the methods described here do not rely on constructing meteorological towers nor on proprietary software, they are more accessible to a local government, state college, or other organization. For example, these methods can be carried out as an initial assessment of resources, or by a government or public entity as a check on claims by private applicants.     

Additionality of wind energy investments in the U.S. voluntary green power market

In the United States, electricity consumers are told that they can “buy” electricity from renewable energy projects, versus fossil fuel-fired facilities, through participation in voluntary green power markets. The marketing messages communicate to consumers that they are causing additional renewable energy generation and reducing emissions through their participation and premium payments for a green label. Using a spatial financial model and a database of registered Green-e wind power facilities, the analysis in this paper shows that the voluntary Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) market has a negligible influence on the economic feasibility of these facilities. Nevertheless, voluntary green power marketers at least implicitly claim that buying their products creates additional renewable energy. This study indicates the contrary. Participants in U.S. voluntary green power markets associated with wind power, therefore, appear to be receiving misleading marketing messages regarding the effect of their participation. In the process of completing this analysis, a potentially relevant factor in explaining investor behavior was identified: the potential for the overlap of voluntary REC markets with compliance REC markets that supply utilities need to meet their obligations of Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard (RPS). The majority of state RPS rules allow for regional or even national sourcing of RECs, meaning that projects are generally eligible to provide compliance RECs to utilities not only in their home states, but in several other states.     

Development of a viability assessment model for hydrogen production from dedicated offshore wind farms

Dedicated offshore wind farms for hydrogen production are a promising option to unlock the full potential of offshore wind energy, attain decarbonisation and energy security targets in electricity and other sectors, and cope with grid expansion constraints. Current knowledge on these systems is limited, particularly the economic aspects. Therefore, a new, integrated and analytical model for viability assessment of hydrogen production from dedicated offshore wind farms is developed in this paper. This includes the formulae for calculating wind power output, electrolysis plant size, and hydrogen production from time-varying wind speed. All the costs are projected to a specified time using both Discounted Payback (DPB) and Net Present Value (NPV) to consider the value of capital over time. A case study considers a hypothetical wind farm of 101.3 MW situated in a potential offshore wind development pipeline off the East Coast of Ireland. All the costs of the wind farm and the electrolysis plant are for 2030, based on reference costs in the literature. Proton exchange membrane electrolysers and underground storage of hydrogen are used. The analysis shows that the DPB and NPV flows for several scenarios of storage are in good agreement and that the viability model performs well. The offshore wind farm – hydrogen production system is found to be profitable in 2030 at a hydrogen price of €5/kg and underground storage capacities ranging from 2 days to 45 days of hydrogen production. The model is helpful for rapid assessment or optimisation of both economics and feasibility of dedicated offshore wind farm – hydrogen production systems.     

Wind-powered ammonia fuel production for remote islands: A case study

This work investigates the prospect of producing ammonia from a wind turbine in order to displace diesel fuel requirements on isolated islands. In the proposed system, wind power is used to produce carbon-free ammonia fuel directly from water and air using traditional air separation units, alkaline electrolyzers, mechanical vapor compression desalination and a Haber–Bosch synthesis loop. The ability to produce synthetic fuel on site is potentially valuable both because it mitigates fuel transportation costs and insulates islanders from oil price fluctuations. A general overview of the process and required components is given. The analytical model used to calculate the technical and economic performance is summarized. Monhegan Island in Maine is used as a case study for a wind-powered ammonia production facility to demonstrate the potential of ammonia fuel production. Actual wind data and electrical load data from Monhegan Island are incorporated to determine the expected ammonia production. The results are compared to the existing system in which all fuels and electricity are ultimately derived from petroleum-based fuel. Total lifetime system costs are calculated with the results normalized so that the wind-ammonia system can be directly compared to a conventional diesel-only system. A breakeven diesel price is calculated at which wind-powered ammonia production becomes competitive.