Unravelling historical cost developments of offshore wind energy in Europe

This paper aims to provide insights in the cost developments of offshore wind energy in Europe. This is done by analysing 46 operational offshore wind farms commissioned after 2000. An increase of the Capital Expenditures (CAPEX) is found that is linked to the distance to shore and depth of more recent wind farms and commodity prices. Analysis results indicate that these two factors are only responsible for about half of the observed CAPEX increase, suggesting other factors such as turbine market with limited competition also led to an increasing CAPEX. Using CAPEX, Annual Energy Production, Financings costs and Operational Expenditures, the development of average Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCoE) is shown to increase from 120 €/MWh in 2000 towards 190 €/MWh in 2014, which is a direct result of the CAPEX increase. The results indicate very different LCoE values among European countries, from currently about 100 Euro/MWh in Denmark and Sweden to 150-220 Euro/MWh in all other countries investigated suggesting an effect of national policy frameworks on the LCoE of offshore wind energy.     

Assessing offshore wind resources: An accessible methodology

This paper describes a method for assessing the electric production and value of wind resources, specifically for the offshore environment. Three steps constitute our method. First, we map the available area, delimiting bathymetric areas based on turbine tower technology, then assess competing uses of the ocean to establish exclusion zones. From exclusion zones, bathymetry, and turbine tower water depth limitations, the water sheet area available for wind turbines is calculated. The second step is calculation of power production starting from available area, which determines the location and count of turbines. Then existing wind data are extrapolated to turbine height and, along with the turbine power output curve, they are used to establish the expected electric power production on an hourly basis. The third step calculates market value based on the hourly electric market at the nearest electric grid node.To illustrate these methods, we assess the offshore wind resource of the US state of Delaware. We find year-round average output of over 5200 MW, or about four times the average electrical consumption of the state. On local wholesale electricity markets, this would produce just over $2 billion/year in revenue.Because the methods described here do not rely on constructing meteorological towers nor on proprietary software, they are more accessible to a local government, state college, or other organization. For example, these methods can be carried out as an initial assessment of resources, or by a government or public entity as a check on claims by private applicants.     

An offshore wind resource assessment study for New England

This paper gives a summary of ongoing work on the assessment of the wind energy resource off the coast of southern New England in the United States. This project was carried out to determine the potential for the near-term development of offshore wind energy projects in that region. The work summarized here consists of four aspects: (1) a review of existing offshore wind data, (2) the measurement of new data at an offshore site, (3) correlation and prediction of long-term data at a new offshore site by reference to a longer-term island site and (4) assessment of the overall coastal resource through the use of the MesoMap software.     

Multidisciplinary design optimization of offshore wind turbines for minimum levelized cost of energy

This paper presents a method for multidisciplinary design optimization of offshore wind turbines at system level. The formulation and implementation that enable the integrated aerodynamic and structural design of the rotor and tower simultaneously are detailed. The objective function to be minimized is the levelized cost of energy. The model includes various design constraints: stresses, deflections, modal frequencies and fatigue limits along different stations of the blade and tower. The rotor design variables are: chord and twist distribution, blade length, rated rotational speed and structural thicknesses along the span. The tower design variables are: tower thickness and diameter distribution, as well as the tower height. For the other wind turbine components, a representative mass model is used to include their dynamic interactions in the system. To calculate the system costs, representative cost models of a wind turbine located in an offshore wind farm are used. To show the potential of the method and to verify its usefulness, the 5 MW NREL wind turbine is used as a case study. The result of the design optimization process shows 2.3% decrease in the levelized cost of energy for a representative Dutch site, while satisfying all the design constraints.     

Hydrogen production from offshore wind power in South China

Wind power hydrogen production is the direct conversion of electricity generated by wind power into hydrogen through water electrolysis hydrogen production equipment, which produces hydrogen for convenient long-term storage through water electrolysis. With the development of offshore wind power from offshore projects, construction costs continue to rise. Turning power transmission into hydrogen transmission will help reduce the cost of offshore wind power construction. This paper analyses the methods of producing hydrogen from offshore wind power, including alkaline water electrolysis, proton exchange membrane electrolysis of water, and solid oxide electrolysis of water. In addition, this paper outlines economic and cost analyses of hydrogen production from offshore wind power. In the future, with the development and advancement of water electrolysis hydrogen production technology, hydrogen production from offshore wind power could be more economical and practical.     

Potential role of power authorities in offshore wind power development in the US

This article examines how power authorities could facilitate and manage offshore wind power development in US coastal waters. The power authority structure is an American 20th century institution for managing energy resources—a form of a public authority or public corporation dedicated to creating, operating and maintaining electric generation and transmission infrastructure. Offshore wind power is characterized by high capital costs but no fuel costs and thus low operating costs. Therefore a power authority, by virtue of its access to low-cost capital and managerial flexibility, could facilitate offshore wind power development by reducing financial risk of developing and lowering debt payments, thus improving the risk profile and lowering the cost of electricity production. Additionally, power authorities can be made up of multiple states, thus opening the possibility for joint action by neighboring coastal states. Using primary and secondary data, we undertake an in-depth analysis of the potential benefits and shortcomings of a power authority approach.     

Minimizing maintenance cost for offshore wind turbines following multi-level opportunistic preventive strategy

Cost of energy generated from offshore wind is impacted by maintenance cost to a great extent. Cost of maintenance depends primarily on the strategy for performing maintenance. In this paper a maintenance cost model for offshore wind turbine components following multilevel opportunistic preventive maintenance strategy is formulated. In this strategy, opportunity for performing preventive actions on components is taken while a failed component is replaced. Two kinds of preventive actions are considered, preventive replacement and preventive maintenance. In the former, components that undergo that action become as good as new (i.e., the replaced components, are not just as good as new, but are actually new), but in the latter, ages of components are reduced to some degree depending on the level of maintenance action. Total cost associated with maintenance depends on the setting of age groups that determine which component should be preventively maintained and to what degree. Through optimum selection of the number of age groups, cost of maintenance can be minimized. A model is formulated where total maintenance cost is expressed as a function of number of age groups for components. A numerical study is used to illustrate the model. The results show that total cost of maintenance is significantly impacted by number of age groups and age thresholds set for components.     

The offshore trend: Structural changes in the wind power sector

In recent years, the wind power sector has begun to move offshore, i.e. to use space and good wind speeds on the open sea for large scale electricity generation. Offshore wind power, however, is not just technologically challenging but also a capital intensive and risky business that requires particular financial and organizational resources not all potential investors might have. We therefore address the question, what impact offshore wind power may have on ownership and organizational structures in the wind power sector. We compare on- and offshore wind park ownership in Denmark, the UK and Germany. The analysis shows that offshore wind power in all three countries is dominated by large firms, many of which are from the electricity sector. In Denmark and the UK, also investors from the gas and oil industry play an important role in the offshore wind business. This development represents a major shift for countries such as Germany and Denmark, in which the wind power sector has grown and matured on the basis of investments by individuals, farmers, cooperatives and independent project developers. The structural changes by which offshore wind power is accompanied have consequences for turbine manufacturers, project developers, investors, associations and policy makers in the field.     

Understanding public responses to offshore wind power

This paper is about understanding the role and importance of public responses to offshore wind power. It builds on a framework for understanding social acceptance and opposition to onshore turbines, and reviews the emerging research on offshore wind. While less is known about how people will respond to offshore than onshore wind, there is now an emerging body of research. From this literature, several common factors which influence responses have emerged and are discussed here: the (continued) role of visual impact; place attachment to the local area; lack of tangible benefits; relationships with developers and outsiders; and the role of the planning and decision-making systems. The paper argues that, as with onshore developments, the public should be included in decision-making about offshore wind farms, and that they have a key role which should not be underestimated. The paper concludes with some thoughts about the means to involve people and how effected communities might be effectively acknowledged, identified and engaged.     

A comparison of offshore wind power development in europe and the U.S.: Patterns and drivers of development

Since the turn of the 21^st century, the onshore wind industry has seen significant growth due to the falling cost of wind generated electricity. This growth has coincided with an interest in the development of offshore wind farms. In Europe, governments and developers have begun establishing small to medium sized wind farms offshore to take advantage of stronger and more constant winds and the relative lack of landowner conflicts. In the U.S., several developers are in the planning and resource evaluation phases of offshore wind farm development, but no wind farms are currently operational or under construction. In this paper, we analyze the patterns of development in Europe and compare them to the U.S. We find significant differences in the patterns of development in Europe and the U.S. which may impact the viability of the industry in the U.S. We also discuss the policies used by European nations to stimulate offshore wind development and we discuss the potential impacts of similar policies in the U.S.     

The impact of wind power on electricity prices

This paper investigates the impact of wind power on electricity prices using a production cost model of the Independent System Operator – New England power system. Different scenarios in terms of wind penetration, wind forecasts, and wind curtailment are modeled in order to analyze the impact of wind power on electricity prices for different wind penetration levels and for different levels of wind power visibility and controllability. The analysis concludes that electricity price volatility increases even as electricity prices decrease with increasing wind penetration levels. The impact of wind power on price volatility is larger in the shorter term (5-min compared to hour-to-hour). The results presented show that over-forecasting wind power increases electricity prices while under-forecasting wind power reduces them. The modeling results also show that controlling wind power by allowing curtailment increases electricity prices, and for higher wind penetrations it also reduces their volatility.     

Feasibility of large scale offshore wind power for Hong Kong — a preliminary study

This paper investigates the potential and the feasibility of offshore wind energy for Hong Kong. The 1998 wind data taken from an island were analysed. The wind resource yields an annual mean wind speed of 6.6 m/s and mean wind power density of 310 W/m². With commercially available 1.65 MW wind turbines placed on the whole of Hong Kong’s territorial waters, the maximum electricity generating potential from offshore wind is estimated to be 25 TWh which is about 72% of the total 1998 annual electricity consumption. However, potential is significantly reduced if other usages of the sea such as shipping are considered. A hypothetical offshore wind farm of 1038 MW capacity is then sited on the East-side waters. The extreme wind and wave climates, as well as the seasonal variation of wind power and demand are examined. The electricity generation costs are estimated and compared with the local retail tariff. Initial results indicate the wind farm is economically viable and technically feasible.     

The economics of offshore wind

This paper presents an overview of the main issues associated with the economics of offshore wind. Investment in offshore wind systems has been growing rapidly throughout Europe, and the technology will be essential in meeting EU targets for renewable energy in 2020. Offshore wind suffers from high installation and connection costs, however, making government support essential. We review various support policies used in Europe, concluding that tender-based feed-in tariff schemes, as used in Denmark, may be best for providing adequate support while minimising developers’ rents. It may prove economic to build an international offshore grid connecting wind farms belonging to different countries that are sited close to each other.     

A framework for data integration of offshore wind farms

Operation and maintenance play an important role in maximizing the yield and minimizing the downtime of wind turbines, especially offshore wind farms where access can be difficult due to harsh weather conditions for long periods. It contributes up to 25–30% to the cost of energy generation. Improved operation and maintenance (O&M) practices are likely to reduce the cost of wind energy and increase safety. In order to optimize the O&M, the importance of data exchange and knowledge sharing within the offshore wind industry must be realized. With more data available, it is possible to make better decisions, and thereby improve the recovery rates and reduce the operational costs. This article describes the development of a framework for data integration to optimize the remote operations of offshore wind farms.     

GHG emissions and energy performance of offshore wind power

This paper presents specific life cycle GHG emissions from wind power generation from six different 5 MW offshore wind turbine conceptual designs. In addition, the energy performance, expressed by the energy indicators Energy Payback Ratio (EPR) Energy Payback Time (EPT), is calculated for each of the concepts.There are currently few LCA studies in existence which analyse offshore wind turbines with rated power as great as 5 MW. The results, therefore, give valuable additional environmental information concerning large offshore wind power. The resulting GHG emissions vary between 18 and 31.4 g CO₂-equivalents per kWh while the energy performance, assessed as EPR and EPT, varies between 7.5 and 12.9, and 1.6 and 2.7 years, respectively. The relatively large ranges in GHG emissions and energy performance are chiefly the result of the differing steel masses required for the analysed platforms. One major conclusion from this study is that specific platform/foundation steel masses are important for the overall GHG emissions relating to offshore wind power. Other parameters of importance when comparing the environmental performance of offshore wind concepts are the lifetime of the turbines, wind conditions, distance to shore, and installation and decommissioning activities.Even though the GHG emissions from wind power vary to a relatively large degree, wind power can fully compete with other low GHG emission electricity technologies, such as nuclear, photovoltaic and hydro power.     

Simulating offshore hydrogen production via PEM electrolysis using real power production data from a 2.3 MW floating offshore wind turbine

This work presents simulation results from a system where offshore wind power is used to produce hydrogen via electrolysis. Real-world data from a 2.3 MW floating offshore wind turbine and electricity price data from Nord Pool were used as input to a novel electrolyzer model. Data from five 31-day periods were combined with six system designs, and hydrogen production, system efficiency, and production cost were estimated. A comparison of the overall system performance shows that the hydrogen production and cost can vary by up to a factor of three between the cases. This illustrates the uncertainty related to the hydrogen production and profitability of these systems. The highest hydrogen production achieved in a 31-day period was 17 242 kg using a 1.852 MW electrolyzer (i.e., utilization factor of approximately 68%), the lowest hydrogen production cost was 4.53 $/kg H₂, and the system efficiency was in the range 56.1–56.9% in all cases.     

Offshore wind energy in the world context

The interest for the exploitation of the offshore wind energy is growing in Europe, where man land use is very high resulting in strong limitation to the installation of onshore wind farms. The today offshore operating wind power is 12 MW, with two wind farms in Denmark and one in Netherlands; it starts to be significant (0.6%) in terms of the onshore power, 2000 MW in Europe.In the world the onshore installed wind power is exceeding 4000 MW, but not so much up to now has been done on the offshore area outside Europe.The European four years experience on the prototypical offshore wind farms looks significantly promising and suggests to promote a similar approach in many densely populated coastal countries in the world with high electricity demand.Results of studies are presented on the offshore wind potential in the European countries and of the tentative evaluation for the Mediterranean basin, and the seas of USA and China. A review is made of the offshore applications, particularly for the Nothern European seas.Economy and environmental trends are illustrated in parallel to those of maturing offshore technology. It is suggested to prepare an action plan to promote the development of the offshore applications in the world context.     

Optimal integration of offshore wind power for a steadier,environmentally friendlier,supply of electricity in China

Demand for electricity in China is concentrated to a significant extent in its coastal provinces. Opportunities for production of electricity by on-shore wind facilities are greatest, however, in the north and west of the country. Using high resolution wind data derived from the GEOS-5 assimilation, this study shows that investments in off-shore wind facilities in these spatially separated regions (Bohai-Bay or BHB, Yangtze-River Delta or YRD, Pearl-River Delta or PRD) could make an important contribution to overall regional demand for electricity in coastal China. An optimization analysis indicates that hour-to-hour variability of outputs from a combined system can be minimized by investing 24% of the power capacity in BHB, 30% in YRD and 47% in PRD. The analysis suggests that about 28% of the overall off-shore wind potential could be deployed as base load power replacing coal-fired system with benefits not only in terms of reductions in CO₂ emissions but also in terms of improvements in regional air quality. The interconnection of off-shore wind resources contemplated here could be facilitated by China's 12th-five-year plan to strengthen inter-connections between regional electric-power grids.     

Cost performance and risk in the construction of offshore and onshore wind farms

This article investigates the risk of cost overruns and underruns occurring in the construction of 51 onshore and offshore wind farms commissioned between 2000 and 2015 in 13 countries. In total, these projects required about $39 billion in investment and reached about 11 GW of installed capacity. We use this original dataset to test six hypotheses about construction cost overruns related to (i) technological learning, (ii) fiscal control, (iii) economies of scale, (iv) configuration, (v) regulation and markets and (vi) manufacturing experience. We find that across the entire dataset, the mean cost escalation per project is 6.5% or about $63 million per windfarm, although 20 projects within the sample (39%) did not exhibit cost overruns. The majority of onshore wind farms exhibit cost underruns while for offshore wind farms the results have a larger spread. Interestingly, no significant relationship exists between the size (in total MW or per individual turbine capacity) of a windfarm and the severity of a cost overrun. Nonetheless, there is an indication that the risk increases for larger wind farms at greater distances offshore using new types of turbines and foundations. Overall, the mean cost escalation for onshore projects is 1.7% and 9.6% for offshore projects, amounts much lower than those for other energy infrastructure. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of offshore liquid hydrogen production from wind power for ship refueling

Green hydrogen from electrolysis has become the most attractive energy carrier for making the transition from fossil fuels to carbon-free energy sources possible. Especially in the naval sector, hydrogen has the potential to address environmental targets due to the lack of low-carbon fuel options. This study aims at investigating an offshore liquefied green hydrogen production plant for ship refueling. The plant comprises a wind farm for renewable electricity generation, an electrolyzer stack for hydrogen production, a water treatment unit for demineralized water production, and a hydrogen liquefaction plant for hydrogen storage and distribution to ships. A pre-feasibility study is addressed to find the optimal capacities of the plant that minimize the payback time. The model results show that the electrolyzer capacity shall be set equal to a value between 80% and 90% of the wind farm capacity to achieve the minimum payback times. Additionally, the wind farm capacity shall be higher than about 150 MW to limit the payback time to values lower than 11 years for a fixed hydrogen price of 6 €/kg. The Levelized Cost of Hydrogen results to be below 4 €/kg for a wide range of plant capacities for a lifetime of the plant of 25 years. Thus, the model shows that this plant is economically feasible and can be reproduced similarly for different locations by rescaling the different selected technologies. In this way, the naval sector can be decarbonized thanks to a new infrastructure for the production and refueling of liquified green hydrogen directly provided on the sea.