宏观经济水资源规划多目标决策分析方法研究

一、序 言 宏观经济水资源规划多目标决策分析方法是我国政府与联合国开发计划署(UNDP)合作的“华北水资源管理”研究项目(CPR/88/068)的重要成果之一。该方法的特点是将区域水资源规划纳入到宏观经济/环境系统中,应用多目标技术进行整体研究,变“树木”为“森林”,可使决策者通过宏观经济水资源规划多目标决策分析模型的操作和运行,看到在不同策略下规划问题的全貌。在该方法研究中,笔者完成了这一方法的软件编制和开发工作,实现了决策分析过程的计算机化。     

大连市水资源利用与宏观经济协调发展规划多目标群决策模型与方法

以大连市水资源开发利用与宏观经济协调可持续发展为研究背景，建立了大连市宏观经济水资源发展规划多目标群决策模型。根据该决策模型具有的多层次多目标多决策者的特点，结合陈守煜建立的工程模糊集理论与切比雪夫决策方法，提出了模糊切比雪夫多目标群决策方法。结果表明，该决策模型与模糊切比雪夫多目标群决策方法是有效和可行的。     

北京市宏观经济水资源多目标分析系统研究

北京市宏观经济水资源多目标分析系统研究课题，基于可持续发展的观点，从北京市宏观经济水资源规划与管理实际出发，深入分析了系统目前所面临的主要问题，以先进的系统分析理论与计算机技术为指导，建立了北京市宏观经济水资源多目标分析系统，实现了多目标分析，群决策过程的计算机化。其研究成果具有较大的实用价值和推广价值、本文从课题涉及的几个主要方面简要介绍了课题的研究情况和研究成果。     

多目标规划在邯郸水资源优化配置中的应用

多目标规划是进行水资源优化配置的一种重要方法，针对区域水资源优化配置中涉及多水源、多用途、不同供水区域的特点，根据多目标决策理论，以追求经济、社会、环境综合效益为主要目标对邯郸市水资源优化配置进行建模求解获得了较好的结果，可为地区水资源优化配置提供较为科学的依据。     

基于遗传算法的榆林水资源多目标优化配置(Ⅰ)

区域水资源优化配置是社会、经济及环境综合效益最佳的大系统多目标规划问题,根据榆林地区特点,基于区域水资源可持续利用理论,研究了以经济、社会和环境的综合效益最大为目标的优化配置模型建立的方法,讨论了基于遗传算法的多目标优化求解的可行性,为榆林地区及其他地区水资源多目标配置求解奠定了理论基础.     

通辽市宏观经济水资源优化配置研究

以内蒙古自治区通辽市为研究区，在考虑产业结构优化、水资源合理利用、生态环境保护等因素的基础上，建立了通辽市宏观经济水资源优化配置多目标分析模型，从而实现水资源问题的分析、预测、优化、模拟和管理五者一体的功能．此外，在系统地分析确定模型中各参变量的基础上，对模型进行了求解和分析，以期指导通辽市水资源供需预测，达到经济、资源、环境的协调发展，最后找出了实施通辽市经济可持续发展的水资源可持续开发方案以及水利工程规划方案．     

莱州湾地区海水入侵与宏观经济发展和水资源关系模型的研究

采用系统分析的方法，以水资源作主线，把区内海水入侵，宏观经济紧密结合在一起，作为一个大系统研究，建立了莱州湾海水入侵区宏观经济水资源多目标决策分析模型，提出了不同工程方案下，不同水平年的宏观经济、水资源和海水入侵协调发展指标。     

对区域水资源优化配置多目标规划的模型

区域水资源优化配置问题是一个多目标决策问题。文章以水资源可持续发展理论为基础，探讨了社会效益、经济效益的识别和度量方法，给出了3类目标的一种具体函数表达式，并指出该区域水资源多目标规划模型的功能。     

多目标规划在邯郸水资源优化调度中的应用

多目标规划是进行水资源优化调度的一种重要方法,针对区域水资源优化调度中涉及多水源、多用途、不同供水区域的特点,根据多目标决策理论,以追求经济、社会、环境综合效益为主要目标,对邯郸市水资源优化调度进行建模求解获得了较好的结果,可为地区水资源优化调度提供较科学的依据。     

经济用水与生态用水的优化模拟耦合模型研究

水是自然-社会-经济复合体最为敏感的限制性因子之一。在干旱半干旱地区，水资源已成为区域社会经济发展和生态建设的“瓶颈”。现代水资源规划内涵是水资源的开发利用在支撑经济社会发展的过程中，应保持生态系统的良性循环。用多目标优化与模拟耦合技术，系统地研究了经济、社会、牛态环境与水的关系，并以宁夏为例，探讨了区域经济与生态用水的合理配置。     

基于水资源优化配置的多目标决策模型探析

人类正以空前的速度和规模开发利用极其有限的水资源,合理有效的配置水资源,最大程度地提高水资源开发利用效率已成为当今世界的重要议题。水资源优化配置问题是一个多目标决策问题,本文在分析水资源优化配置基本概念及内涵的基础上,依据水资源配置的原则及目标,对基于经济目标、环境目标与社会目标的水资源优化配置多目标决策模型进行了较为深入的分析,并探讨了模型的求解以及决策方案的选择,可为水资源优化配置多目标决策问题提供一定的理论和实践指导。     

Prioritizing Long-term Watershed Management Strategies Using Group Decision Analysis

There is a growing consensus that an effective way of enhancing long-term water resources management and environmental sustainability is through locally based planning at the watershed scale. Managing watershed resources for particular uses requires interactive dialogue among all stakeholders who have different objectives. Therefore, the resolution of inter-group conflict should be an acknowledged task of the planning process. In this paper, an integrated framework for prioritizing watershed management strategies is proposed. A case study is employed to highlight the challenges of using group decision analysis in strategic planning and to illustrate the interaction between different stakeholders on watershed issues. In particular, two group decision-making approaches are used to assess and analyse different stakeholders' preferences for various strategies and alternatives. Professional experts, government agencies and community leaders constitute the different parties included in the framework. The main focus is on the application of group decision analysis in the long-term watershed planning process. The results of the overall preference analysis show that water resources development is the most important strategy followed by agricultural and range management.     

Effect of Averaging Operators in Fuzzy Optimization of Reservoir Operation

Fuzzy multiobjective decision makingmodels generally rely on the aggregation of theobjectives to form a decision function. The generalizedaveraging operator is usually adopted for aggregatingmultiple and unequal objectives because it allows trade-off amongst the objectives, and has been shown to besuitable to model human decision making behavior. In thefield of water resource management, most of the decision-making problems involving the generalized averagingoperator implicitly assume the decision maker (DM) israther optimistic. The analysis of the DM's behaviorduring the aggregation process and its impact on theperformance of the system, has therefore never beenaddressed by many researchers and decision makers. Theaim of this paper is to investigate the relationshipbetween decision makers' index of optimism and the long-term performance of a reservoir resource. Morespecifically, the generalized averaging operator, whoseparameter can be interpreted as the DM's index ofoptimism, is imbedded into a fuzzy stochastic dynamicprogram (FSDP). This approach is developed andimplemented to derive optimal operating policies for thehydroelectric complex of the Uruguay River basin inSouthern Brazil. FSDP-derived policies with differentindices of optimism are then compared with simulation. Weshow that system performance may be influenced by thedecision maker's behavior during the aggregation, andthat the optimistic assumption may not yield tosatisfactory results, especially during critical timeperiods.     

Analysis of Arizona's Water Resources System

An analysis of Arizona's water resources system has been implemented. This study uses a qualitative system analysis approach to evaluate the most important components of the system: water supply, water demand, laws and regulations, stakeholders, decision makers, etc. Moreover, the investigation centres on some key components of the water resources system such as water conservation in active management areas (AMA), rural Arizona, population growth, and water rights transfers. This study provides insights on these important components, identifies factors that can be enhanced and offers suggestions for improving them. The overall goal of this analysis is to contribute ideas that will help to establish a more efficient and holistic programme to secure sustainable development of water resources.     

Synthesis of System Dynamics Tools for Holistic Conceptualization of Water Resources Problems

Out-of-context analysis of water resources systems can result in unsustainable management strategies. To address this problem, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems driving a system??s overall behavior. System dynamics, a method for operationalizing systems thinking, facilitates holistic understanding of water resources systems, and strategic decision making. The approach also facilitates participatory modeling, and analysis of the system??s behavioral trends, essential to sustainable management. The field of water resources has not utilized the full capacity of system dynamics in the thinking phase of integrated water resources studies. We advocate that the thinking phase of modeling applications is critically important, and that system dynamics offers unique qualitative tools that improve understanding of complex problems. Thus, this paper describes the utility of system dynamics for holistic water resources planning and management by illustrating the fundamentals of the approach. Using tangible examples, we provide an overview of Causal Loop and Stock and Flow Diagrams, reference modes of dynamic behavior, and system archetypes to demonstrate the use of these qualitative tools for holistic conceptualization of water resources problems. Finally, we present a summary of the potential benefits as well as caveats of qualitative system dynamics for water resources decision making.     

Multiobjective Multireservoir Operation in Fuzzy Environment

In this paper, the operation of a complex system of multireservoirs with multiple objectives is being demonstrated. The multireservoir system includes uncertainties of inflows, demands to the large extent. Fuzzy set theory has been proved as a robust theory where these kinds of uncertainties have major role. In this study, the fuzzy linear programming method is used to get the better policy for the system operation with the uncertainty in various parameters i.e. resources, technological coefficients, objective function coefficients. A four reservoir system (a compound parallel and series) is taken as a case study and the fuzzification of all parameters is tried on the system. The effect of fluctuations in irrigation demand and release, power demand and release and available storage volume are considered. The consequences on the objectives i.e. maximization of returns from irrigation release, maximization of returns from power releases are also examined. The operation policies thus evolved give a better understanding of the problem and the intricate complexities associated and there effects. With this the policy makers (a decision maker) can have a wide range of options at his disposal for suitable action.     

Integrating Stakeholders’ Preferences into Water Resources Management Planning in the Incomati River Basin

Stakeholder participation is a key principle of the integrated water resources management. It is a central issue in planning and decision making processes for the development of suitable water resources management strategies at the river basin level. This study tests a methodology for identifying stakeholders’ preferences regarding water resources management objectives, to incorporate them in the design of water resources management plans at the river basin level. The empirical application of this study focused in Mozambique, on the Incomati river basin. This research applies the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method to evaluate stakeholders’ involvement and participation in the selection of water resources management plans. This research revealed that there are heterogeneities in stakeholders’ individual groups preferences regarding water resources management objectives and the management options of their satisfaction. Furthermore it revealed the potential utility of the AHP methodological framework in facilitating stakeholders’ participation and involvement in planning and decision-making processes for the development of water resources management plans. The application of this approach may improve water governance at the river basin level through higher commitments of stakeholders to the proposed objectives.     

水资源系统风险管理研究综述

水资源系统的风险管理成为水资源可持续利用的必然要求，对复杂的水资源系统所面临的各种各样的风险进行分析越来越成为热点。现对风险的一般概念进行讨论，并在此基础上介绍水资源系统风险的定义；水资源系统风险管理过程包括定义系统问题、风险识别、风险分析(风险估算和评价)、风险处理和风险决策；重点对风险分析的数学模型进行了综述。     

Application of Multi-Criterion Decision Making Analysis to Integrated Water Resources Management

In the context of integrated water resources management (IWRM), account should be taken of a wide range of factors including economic, social and environmental issues. Multi-criterion decision making (MCDM) approaches are applied to the case study in this paper to integrate different objectives into the planning, management and decision making process. A variety of criteria in terms of economic, social and environmental dimensions are identified and formulated for the purpose of MCDM analysis. A set of different management scenarios is proposed for the desired goals. They include reductions in irrigated areas, improved irrigation efficiencies, increased system loss for groundwater irrigation and changes in cropping pattern. An integrated water resources optimisation model (IWRO) is used to optimise surface and groundwater allocation, through which the identified criteria can be enumerated. Compromise programming (CP), which results in a compromise solution located as close as possible to an ideal solution, is adopted to carry out the MCDM analysis for the case study. The sensitivity of different sets of weights and different values of parameters related to CP is investigated. Results indicate that compromise programming is able to lead to satisfactory solutions. Performance of different alternatives is evaluated based on the compromise programming analysis, and potential decisional alternatives are proposed for further investigation.     

基于ET的水资源与水环境综合规划研究（I）-理论

本文总结了水资源规划的六个模式，全面综述了水资源规划发展思路，深入阐述了基于ET的水资源与水环境综合规划理论内涵和五大调控机制，提出了综合规划的四个原则、五大目标、决策思路和技术路线，系统建立起基于ET的区域水资源与水环境综合规划研究框架。