Determination of the Financing Scale, Time Limit and Returns from the Investment in BOT Projects

The key aspect to the successful implementation of BOT concept is the raising of finance by project sponsor, so financial engineering techniques and capital structuring skills are required to find the proper mix of debt and equity. The capital structure and present a model to determine the equity level from the aspects of financing scale, construction time and return on investment are analyzed. The resulting model can help the sponsor to avoid the capital risk, and offer the government a criterion to evaluate management ability of the sponsor. To show the application and availability of this model, a case study is conducted. Thus, this paper is concern with the determination of financing scale, construction time, and return on investment which would assist the sponsor to ensure that the equity level for optimal capital structure is available prior to the implementation stage in BOT project operation.     

Experience,Equity and Foreign Investment Risk: A PIC Perspective

We analyze foreign investment risk-mitigating effects of host-country policy stability, firm experience and equity stakes using an empirical context largely ignored by international business (IB) research: project investment companies (PICs). PICs permit cleaner separation of individual investment project risk from the parent firm, which may otherwise pool risk characteristics from managing multiple projects across different industries and countries. PICs also permit potentially unbiased, prospective risk assessment at the time of a project’s initial announcement based on the mix of debt and equity funding the project. Consistent with previous IB research, our analyses of 396 PICs announced in 53 countries from 1990–2006 indicate that investment risk measured as the percentage of equity-to-total capital funding a PIC decreases with greater host-country policy stability, lead-investor experience in the host country, and lead-investor equity stakes. But contrary to previous IB research, we find that lead-sponsor experience and equity stakes reduce investment risk less as host-country policy stability decreases. From a PIC perspective, investor experience and equity stakes are complements to (not substitutes for) host-country policy stability. Our PIC-based evidence re-invigorates research and related practice and policy debates about how investor experience and equity holdings affect foreign project decisions and suggests new avenues for future work.     

Examining the interaction of marketing and financing decisions in a dynamic environment Die Analyse der Beziehungen von Marketing- und Finanzierungsentscheidungen in einem dynamischen Umfeld

The market success of a new product critically depends on the marketing strategy that is adopted during the introductory phase of its life cycle. The decision theoretic marketing literature provides useful insights to this problem through the application of new product diffusion models. While most of the diffusion models incorporate only marketing variables such as price or advertising into the adoption rates of the new product, we introduce the issue of financial decision making and argue that the success of a new product not only depends on an optimal marketing mix strategy but also on the financial decisions of a firm. We adopt a simple diffusion model and show that in case with demand uncertainty and limited liability more leverage (a higher debt equity ratio) causes the firm to be more aggressive in the product market, i.e., to reduce the price of the product. Our findings suggest that marketing decisions should not be taken in isolation but should be coordinated with financial variables.     

Capital Structure of Foreign Direct Investments: A Transaction Cost Analysis

Transaction cost theory (TCT) plays a major role in theorizing about the boundaries of the multinational enterprise (MNE), and is increasingly being applied to intra-MNE governance. We apply TCT to capital structure decisions for MNE subsidiaries. According to TCT, equity and debt are not just financial instruments, but alternative governance structures. Equity is useful for projects involving specific assets that do not serve well as collateral, and for knowledge intensive activities where information asymmetry and public good issues make external financing more costly. We study under what conditions MNE headquarters may wish to partially re-introduce market mechanisms inside the MNE through the use of external or internal debt to finance subsidiaries. This can allow economizing on governance costs and strengthen subsidiary manager incentives, but may be inappropriate if subsidiary assets are MNE-specific or subsidiary-specific. Empirically testable propositions are developed.     

Long-Term Orientation and Relationship Lending: A Cross-Cultural Study on the Effect of Time Preferences on the Choice of Corporate Debt

We examine how time preferences impact the financing decision of firms. We hypothesize that the degree of long-term orientation in a country is positively related to the use of bank relationship lending. Based on a thorough theoretical investigation and an extensive empirical analysis using a large, worldwide dataset, we find strong support for our hypothesis on the role of time preferences for financial intermediation. Our results are robust to controlling for other determinants of the choice of debt financing as well as to applying alternative variables and different estimation methods. Firms in long-term orientation countries appear to prefer relationship bank financing, since it is usually available for the long run and will not be withdrawn quickly in response to adverse developments. This allows managers to preserve a more strategic view and pursue longer planning horizons.     

双指数跳扩散模型下具有破产重组公司债券定价

为了更好地处理公司面临的资产跳跃风险和破产重组策略问题,在公司资产价值演化服从双指数跳扩散模型下,基于债券股票互换的破产重组策略模式,综合运用结构化方法和最优停时技巧,建立公司股票和公司债券定价的数学模型,获得公司股票和公司债券定价表达式,以及最佳破产边界的闭合解和最优息票所满足的非线性方程．最后,数值结果表明：公司资产价值震荡越剧烈,股东越能从动荡的市场中获得收益,但公司债券将越不受投资者青睐,公司债券价值越低,最优杠杆比例越低．     

Factors That Affect the Growth Rate of Equity Capital

Six factors that affect either the transient or the long-term growth rate of equity capital are identified. The use of the net present value method of financial accounting to compute the equity value of hypothetical firms is described. Simulation of sequences of capital budgeting decisions in hypothetical firms was used to illustrate the effects of the six factors on the growth rate of equity capital. The upper limit of a firm's steady-state capital growth rate was affected by (1) the maximum yield attainable from its long-term investments, (2) its debt policy, (3) its budget allocation policy, and (4) the (average) life of its long-term investments. Unless the selection procedure was random, the transient values of a firm's annual growth rate of equity were affected appreciably by (1) the growth rate of its long-term investment opportunities, (2) its debt policies, and (3) its past decisions. Random variation in the growth rate of investment opportunities had little affect on the average growth rate of the firm, but it had appreciable affect on the year to year values. The factors that had the greatest influence on the long-term growth of equity capital were generation of high yielding investment opportunities and estimating expected values of cash flows accurately.     

The influence of anger,impulsivity, sensation seeking and driver attitudes on risky driving behaviour among post-graduate university students in Durban,South Africa

Introduction

Road traffic accidents (RTAs) constitute a serious global health risk, and evidence suggests that young drivers are significantly overrepresented among those injured or killed in RTAs. This study explores the role of anger, impulsivity, sensation seeking and driver attitudes as correlates for risky driving practices among drivers, drawing comparisons between age and gender.

Method

The study used a cross-sectional survey design, with a sample of 306 post-graduate university students from two universities in Durban, South Africa, who completed the self-administered questionnaire.

Results

The results indicate that drivers with higher driver anger, sensation seeking, urgency, and with a lack of premeditation and perseverance in daily activities were statistically more likely to report riskier driving acts. Males reported significantly more acts of risky driving behaviour (RDB) than females. Driver attitudes significantly predicted self-reported acts of RDB on most indicators. Older drivers (25 years and older) had safer driver attitudes and a lower sense of sensation seeking and urgency in life.

Conclusion

Interventions targeting young drivers, which focus on impeding the manifestation of anger, impulsivity and sensation seeking are recommended. Also, the empirical support for the attitude–behaviour hypothesis evidenced in this study vindicates the development or continuation of interventions that focus on this dynamic.     

Optimal ordering policy for a price-setting newsvendor with option contracts under demand uncertainty

In this article, we investigate the newsvendor problem in a joint ordering and pricing setting in the presence of option contracts under demand uncertainty. At the beginning of a single selling season, the newsvendor who faces additive stochastic demand can obtain goods through two ways: ordering from a firm or purchasing and exercising call options. Single ordering (ordering from a firm only or purchasing and exercising call options only) and mixed ordering (ordering from a firm and purchasing and exercising call options simultaneously) cases are investigated. We find that the newsvendor’s optimal pricing and ordering strategies exist and are unique for both cases, respectively. In addition, when both cases are available, mixed ordering is the newsvendor’s optimal ordering policy. If only single ordering is available, the newsvendor prefers ordering from a firm when demand risk is low, while enjoys purchasing and exercising call options when demand risk is high. We also find that with option contracts, the newsvendor’s optimal order quantity and maximum expected profit are all decreasing in the option price and exercise price of product, while the optimal retail price in terms of option price and exercise price of product are intricate. Moreover, we show that, mixed ordering is more capable to deal with supply price volatility risk.     

The role of risk-propensity in the risky driving of younger drivers

Young drivers are over-represented in road injury statistics, partly because they engage in more risky driving than older people. Although it is assumed that younger people have greater risk-propensity, defined as a positive attitude to risk, relevant theory is imprecise and relevant research is clouded by inappropriate measures. 89 participants aged 16-25 and 110 participants aged over 35 were recruited outside motor registries. Participants completed a battery of questionnaires including Rohrmann’s [Rohrmann, B. 2004. Risk attitude scales: concepts and questionnaires. Project report. Available at http://www.rohrmannresearch.net/pdfs/rohrmann-racreport.pdf (last accessed 12th February 2008)] measures of risk-aversion, risk-propensity, and risk-related motives for risky driving, as well as measures of risk-perception and risky driving. Compared to older drivers, younger drivers demonstrated lower risk-aversion, and higher propensity for taking accident risks, as well as stronger motives for risky driving in relation to experience-seeking, excitement, sensation-seeking, social influence, prestige-seeking, confidence/familiarity, underestimation of risk, irrelevance of risk, “letting off steam”, and “getting there quicker”. Further, these variables were associated with risky driving. Some evidence was observed for the possibility that risk propensity moderates the relationship between perceived risk and risky behaviour. These results suggest approaches to targeting the “young driver problem”.     

工程量清单计价模式下的合同管理

自从1979年合同及相关的法律和法规颁布实施以来,我国工程建设合同法制建设和科学管理进入了一个崭新的阶段,但仍然存在许多值得探讨并有待解决的诸多问题,目前,工程管理整体水平低,合同意识薄弱,缺乏合同管理人才,很难严格履行合同是建筑业进一步发展所亟待解决的问题。合同是现代项目管理的一种手段和措施,可以通过合同促进工程管理良性运行。加强合同管理要用更科学的方法和更合理的思路和更有效的手段。     

An empirical analysis of risk-taking in car driving and other aspects of life

The link between risk-taking behavior in various aspects of life has long been an area of debate among economists and psychologists. Using an extensive data set from Denmark, this study provides an empirical investigation of the link between risky driving and risk taking in other aspects of life, including risk-taking behavior in financial and labor-market decisions. Specifically, we establish significant positive correlations between individuals’ risk-taking behavior in car driving and their risk-taking behavior in financial and labor-market decisions. However, we find that the strength of these correlations vary significantly between genders, and across risk decisions. These correlations and their differences across genders get stronger when we construct more “homogenous” groups by restricting our sample to those individuals with at least some stock-market participation. Overall, the empirical results in this study suggest that risk-taking behavior in various aspects of life can be associated, and our results corroborate previous evidence on the link between individuals’ risk preferences across various aspects of life. This implies that individuals’ driving behavior, which is commonly unobservable, can be more fully understood using observable labor market and financial decisions of individuals.     

跳扩散模型下具有违约资产重组公司债券的定价

为了增强公司应对突发事件和处理资产重组的能力,在公司资产价值演化服从跳幅度为-1的跳扩散模型下,基于债券股票互换的违约资产重组模式,运用最优停时技巧和结构化方法,研究了永久公司债券的定价问题和最佳资产结构问题.采用微分方程方法,获得了公司债券,股票价值和公司总价值定价的显式表达式,以及最佳违约边界和最佳杠杆比率的显式表达式.最后,通过数值分析,解释跳跃强度所引发的金融现象.     

Predicting risky and angry driving as a function of gender

The present study was designed to examine putative risk factors of driving anger, traffic citations, and traffic-related injuries as a function of gender. Participants included 785 (65% men) drivers identified by the Washington State Department of Licensing. Just over half of participants (55%) were identified as high-risk drivers based on multiple traffic violations, whereas 45% were recruited from a random sample of drivers. Participants completed a mailed survey assessing indicators of risky driving and risk factors including sensation seeking, stressful events, negative affect, tobacco use, and drinking behavior. Hierarchical regression analysis was used to evaluate risky driving outcomes as a function of theoretically prioritized risk factors and to evaluate gender as a moderator. Overall, men reported more traffic citations and injuries, but did not differ from women in reported driving anger. All putative risk factors were associated with one or more indicators of risky driving. Moderation results revealed that the positive relationship between drinking frequency and driving anger was stronger for women. In contrast, typical number of drinks consumed was negatively associated with driving anger, which was also more evident for women. In addition, the positive association between sensation seeking and number of traffic citations was stronger among women.     

Young novice drivers and the risky behaviours of parents and friends during the Provisional (intermediate) licence phase: A brief report

Purpose

While there is research indicating that many factors influence the young novice driver's increased risk of road crash injury during the earliest stages of their independent driving, there is a need to further understand the relationship between the perceived risky driving behaviour of parents and friends and the risky behaviour of drivers with a Provisional (intermediate) licence.

Method

As part of a larger research project, 378 drivers aged 17–25 years (M = 18.22, SD = 1.59, 113 males) with a Provisional licence completed an online survey exploring the perceived riskiness of their parents’ and friends’ driving, and the extent to which they pattern (i.e. base) their driving behaviour on the driving of their parents and friends.

Results

Young drivers who reported patterning their driving on their friends, and who reported they perceived their friends to be risky drivers, reported more risky driving. The risky driving behaviour of young male drivers was associated with the perceived riskiness of their fathers’ driving, whilst for female drivers the perceived riskiness of their mothers’ driving approached significance.

Conclusions

The development and application of countermeasures targeting the risky behaviour of same-sex parents appears warranted by the robust research findings. In addition, countermeasures need to encourage young people in general to be non-risky drivers; targeting the negative influence of risky peer groups specifically. Social norms interventions may minimise the influence of potentially-overestimated riskiness.     

基于D-S证据理论的存货质押融资后利润分析

针对存货质押融资服务中订货周期、产品单价等因素往往无法准确预知,从而导致企业利润难以量化评价的问题,将D S证据理论引入到存货质押融资后的利润分析。该方法融合多位专家的信息,利用信任函数和似然函数,经证据推理得到融资后利润的上下界概率分布,作为利润的悲观估计和乐观估计,并以其均值作为概率分布的近似估计。实例分析表明,所提出方法较好地将订货周期、产品单价的不确定性传递到存货质押融资后利润,且比区间分析法得到的信息更丰富。该方法可为风险厌恶、风险偏好等各种类型的决策者提供较为直观和定量的分析结果,为企业的战略决策提供客观依据。     

New product development in new ventures: the quest for resources

Innovation and new product development (NPD) are becoming more important as strategic initiatives. Yet, innovation creates challenges for most existing organisations, thus leading to the emergence of new ventures (NVs) as vehicles to deliver innovation. NVs present owners and management with unique opportunities and challenges. On one hand, the NV can focus its attention on specific innovation(s) without having to compete with other goals and departments for resource access. Resources are critical to the successful development and launch of new products and can come from financial lenders and/or suppliers. However, because they are new and because their only asset of worth is the highly risky innovation, NVs are at a strong disadvantage in securing access to these resources. This study explores the effectiveness of using personal equity investments as a strategy for securing access and for enhancing NPD success. Using signalling theory as the theoretical framework and data from 745 NPD projects representing manufacturing innovations, this study finds that equity investment is particularly successful in its NPD impact although not impactful with suppliers. As a signal, it can be argued that equity is a strong, high-quality signal. Reasons for these findings and directions for future research are provided.     

Revisiting the concept of the ‘problem young driver’ within the context of the ‘young driver problem’: Who are they?

For decades there have been two young driver concepts: the ‘young driver problem’ where the driver cohort represents a key problem for road safety; and the ‘problem young driver’ where a sub-sample of drivers represents the greatest road safety problem. Given difficulties associated with identifying and then modifying the behaviour of the latter group, broad countermeasures such as graduated driver licensing (GDL) have generally been relied upon to address the young driver problem. GDL evaluations reveal general road safety benefits for young drivers, yet they continue to be overrepresented in fatality and injury statistics. Therefore it is timely for researchers to revisit the ‘problem young driver’ concept to assess its potential countermeasure implications. This is particularly relevant within the context of broader countermeasures that have been designed to address the ‘young driver problem’ Personal characteristics, behaviours and attitudes of 378 Queensland novice drivers aged 17–25 years were explored during their pre-, Learner and Provisional 1 (intermediate) licence as part of a larger longitudinal project. Self-reported risky driving was measured by the Behaviour of Young Novice Drivers Scale (BYNDS), and five subscale scores were used to cluster the drivers into three groups (high risk n = 49, medium risk n = 163, low risk n = 166). High risk ‘problem young drivers’ were characterised by greater self-reported pre-Licence driving, unsupervised Learner driving, and speeding, driving errors, risky driving exposure, crash involvement, and offence detection during the Provisional period. Medium risk drivers were also characterised by more risky road use than the low risk group. Interestingly problem young drivers appear to have some insight into their high-risk driving, since they report significantly greater intentions to bend road rules in future driving. The results suggest that tailored intervention efforts may need to target problem young drivers within the context of broad countermeasures such as GDL which address the young driver problem in general. Experiences such as crash-involvement could be used to identify these drivers as a preintervention screening measure.     

生物制药产业现状分析及我国企业的发展战略

2003-2004年生物技术产业普遍的复苏给我国生物制药企业带来前所未有的机遇和广阔的市场前景.通过中外生物制药企业的对比分析发现,我国企业在自主创新、资金融集、规范管理等各方面与国际水平均存在一定差距.国外制药企业将会在产品研制、专利申请、药品生产以及销售流通等环节对并不强大的中国生物制药业造成冲击.建议我国企业应当明确发展战略,加大研发投入,实现创新、模仿并举;拓宽融资渠道,有效融合金融资本与生物制药技术;积极实施标准化管理;寻求战略合作,从而增强技术优势,降低市场风险,创造更高价值.