气候变化情景下的地下水潜在补给变化影响分析)))以栾城试验站为例卫文,陈宗宇

了解气候变化影响下的地下水潜在补给变化对于地下水资源的科学管理与评价是非常必要的。以栾城生态试验站为典型研究区, 联合应用 ClimGen 天气发生器和地下水补给 Visual HELP 模型, 对未来气候变化情景下的地下水潜在补给速率进行了评估。结果显示: 在降水减少 10% ( P) 、温度上升 2 e( T ) 以及两者同时发生( Pamp T ) 三种情景下, 未来(2011 年- 2040 年) 地下水多年平均补给速率相比基准( 1961 年- 1990 年) 分别下降了 23133% 、4142% 、26101% , 其中降水的减少对地下水入渗补给的影响尤为明显。该项研究对于指导地下水资源的科学管理与可持续开发利用具有重要意义。     

海外文摘

全球气候变化对地下水资源的潜在影响-Journal of Water and Climate Change,2011,2(4)全球气候变化可能会在地下水补给、蒸散和抽取等方面影响到可用地下水量。为对供水系统进行长效管理,需了解气候变化对地下水系统产生影响的原因及过程。分析了未来气候预测的不确定性,阐述了包括地下水补给、流失和质量等多种复杂因     

西辽河流域平原区地下水动态补给研究

基于分布式水循环模拟模型MODCYCLE,建立强人类活动影响下西辽河流域水循环模拟模型,量化西辽河平原地下水补给组成,分析地下水动态补给情况及年际、年内变化。分析结果表明：西辽河流域平原区地下水补给以降水入渗补给为主,与年降水量直接相关。随降水减少,降水入渗补给比重减少,河道入渗补给及灌溉回归补给比重增加。地下水补给的年内变化差异较大,且与年内降水分布直接相关。研究结果可为西辽河平原地下水资源可持续开发利用提供依据     

变化环境对华北平原地下水可持续利用的影响研究

针对华北平原地下水利用中存在的问题,采用分布式水文MIKE SHE模型,考虑人类活动（农业节水措施和南水北调工程）和气候变化等变化环境的影响,通过设定4大类情景（每类情景中均设定了3类气候变化子情景）模拟了2019-2028年华北平原地下水的利用状况。结果表明：农业节水措施和南水北调工程等人类活动对华北平原地下水水位、水均衡和含水层储量有较大的影响;相对于现状保持型情景(SQM),模拟期末(2028年12月31日)农业节水型情景(AWS)、南水北调工程供水型情景(SNWDP)和综合利用型情景(CU)下华北平原饱和含水层储量分别增加0.168、0.558和1.433 m;气候变化对华北平原地下水的影响量级与人类活动的影响相当,且地下水水位、水均衡和含水层储量变化的方向和大小均与未来气候条件的干湿程度呈正相关关系,到模拟期末,相对于现状保持型情景(SQM),湿润、正常和干旱的气候情景下华北平原饱和含水层储量分别为增加0.972~2.239 m、增加0.119~1.540 m和减少0.372~0.940 m;只有综合考虑各种引水和节水措施,多管齐下,才能保证华北平原地下水的可持续利用。     

气候变化情景下丹江口水库径流模拟预测

气候变化和异常对水资源影响的评价方法有很多种,本项研究采用概念性水文模型模拟和假定气候情景推算径流变化法,分析气候变化对丹江口水库径流的影响,即利用不同的GCMs模型模拟丹江口水库上游的月降水和气温序列,并通过Delta变化作为汉江流域半分布式两参数月水量平衡模型的输入,用以模拟和预测2021～2050年的丹江口水库径流量.结果表明,对于2021-2050年降水和气温年变化的情景,未来年平均径流将相应升高8.18%(HadCM3)、7.78%(CSRIO)和2.14%(CCSRINES),敏感度分析结果显示,径流量对降水变化的敏感度较径流对气温变化的敏感度要大.     

鄱阳湖流域气候变化及其对入湖径流量的影响

为分析鄱阳湖流域气候变化特征及评估其对流域径流的影响,研究利用1961-2010年间鄱阳湖流域29个气象站和入湖"五河"水文控制站观测数据,分析该时段内流域气候和径流量变化趋势,建立统计模型分析其对流域径流量的影响。研究结果表明:鄱阳湖流域年气温呈显著性(99%置信度检验)波动上升趋势,流域降水总体呈略上升趋势,降水天数呈下降趋势。受气候变化的影响,鄱阳湖流域径流量呈上升趋势。统计模型计算结果表明,径流量与降雨变化呈非线性关系,径流量对降雨变化有着较强的敏感性,相同的气温变化情景下,降水增加比降水减少对径流量的影响更加显著,表明降水变化对径流量有着不同程度和方向的影响作用。气温对径流的影响呈线性,但其影响不明显。未来气候变化情景下,2050年前鄱阳湖流域在高排放A2和RCP8.5情景下呈现明显增长趋势,但其径流量低于其他排放情景。     

气候变化对大海波水库来水及用水影响

为分析在未来气候变化情景下大海波水库来水及用水的变化情况,选取楚雄站蒸发(1953年-2001年)、降水(1953年-2009年)、气温等气象资料,以及大海波水库(1990年-2009年)来水量资料,采用线性回归法、Mann-Kendall及Spearman趋势检测法对楚雄站点的气象要素进行趋势检测,并计算了水库下游参考作物需水量。结果表明:大海波水库的来水量呈减少趋势,下游参考作物需水量呈下降趋势;在未来气候情景下,楚雄年平均气温将升高2.56℃,年降水变化率为5.9%,气温升高时,下游参考作物需水量增加,对大海波水库的供水带来一定的不利影响。     

咸阳市气候变化与地下水变化趋势分析——以泾河两岸黄土高原区为例

针对咸阳市泾河两岸黄土高原区地下水位快速变化的现象,依据咸阳市1986-2008年地下水监测资料和气象资料,运用灰色系统理论和统计方法对该区的地下水动态变化特征、未来变化趋势及与气候变化的关系进行了分析。结果发现:①该区地下水水位变化滞后于降水变化的周期为3个月,地下水位以不同速率持续下降,到2010年、2011年地下水位将比2008年分别下降0.4 m和0.59 m。②该区在1961-2007年间气候呈明显干旱化趋势,影响着地下水位的变化,且deMartonne气候干燥度每上升10个单位地下水埋深减少0.13 m,每下降10个单位地下水埋深增加0.3 m,结果显示该区地下水系统长期得不到补给恢复,应受到重视。     

气候变化对地下水影响的研究

<正>目前,地下水和气候变化之间的关系的研究还是一个新的领域。中国地下水资源量约为7600亿m3,大约占水资源总量的26.8%。地下水是我国农业灌溉和农村饮用水的主要来源。降雨量时空分布的变化引起地下水补给减少,极端干旱引发地下水提取量增加。气候变化条件下如何合理利用和管理地下水资源,需要定量化研究气候变化和地下水之间的相互关系。2007年西班牙政府与联合国签署了协议,向联合国提供5     

CMIP5多模式下中国不同流域植被动态变化预测

植被动态变化研究对于了解全球气候变化具有重要意义。利用1982～2015年中国区域的植被归一化指数NDVI、降水和潜在蒸散发数据,构建植被动态预测模型,从水分亏缺的角度,分析降水和潜在蒸散发对植被的影响,结合CMIP5模式提供的两种情景(RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5),预测未来的植被动态变化。结果表明：RCP 8.5情景下的NDVI增加程度大于RCP 4.5情景。在RCP 4.5情景下,未来春季、夏季、秋季和生长季的NDVI平均增量分别为0.02,0.09,0.11和0.07;而在RCP 8.5情景下,未来春季、夏季、秋季和生长季的NDVI平均增量分别为0.06,0.09,0.12和0.08。未来中国不同流域的植被覆盖程度均出现增长,西南诸河流域的植被覆盖程度增长显著,而未来内陆河流域的植被覆盖程度增长较小。     

Assessing Impacts of Conservation Measures on Watershed Hydrology Using MIKE SHE Model in the Face of Climate Change

Climate change triggers changes in temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, etc. and has a significant impact on water resources in many regions. Considering the increasing scarcity of water as a result of climate change, conservation of water and groundwater recharge have become crucial factors for water resources planning and management. In this paper, an attempt is made to study the detailed hydrological behaviour of a treated watershed using physically based distributed hydrological modelling system MIKE SHE to assess the impact of conservation measures on watershed hydrology considering future climate change. Three hypothetical management scenarios are simulated for the period 2010–2040. RegCM4 regional climate model is used in the study for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Detailed hydrological water balance is extracted for individual years from 1979 to 2009 to compare relevant components. The evaluation for base period shows 10.06% reduction in surface runoff and 11.33% enhancement in groundwater recharge. Further simulation with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios show notable reduction in surface runoff and increase in groundwater recharge. The structures in the micro-watershed influence the surface runoff and increase infiltration into the soil, resulting in higher groundwater recharge. MIKE SHE simulations for various structures management scenarios establish the role of conservation measures in reducing surface runoff and enhancing groundwater recharge under substantial effect of climate change. The results will assist in decision-making on watershed development plans in quantitative terms, including planning for water conservation measures in the face of climate change.

     

Effect of management strategies on reducing negative impacts of climate change on water resources of the Isfahan–Borkhar aquifer using MODFLOW

Recently, many studies have investigated the effect of climate change on groundwater resources in semiarid and arid areas and have shown adverse effects on groundwater recharge and water level. However, only a few studies have shown suitable strategies for reducing these adverse effects. In this study, climate conditions were predicted for the future period of 2020–2044, under the emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, for Isfahan–Borkhar aquifer, Isfahan, Iran, using MODFLOW‐2000 (MODFLOW is United States Geological Survey product). Results showed that the average groundwater level of the aquifer would decrease to 13, 15, and 16 m in 2012 to 2044 approximately under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Then, three groundwater sustainability management scenarios were defined that included 10%, 30%, and 50% reduction in groundwater extraction. These strategies simulated the reduced negative effects of climate change on the aquifer. The results showed that decreases in water withdrawal rates of 10%, 30%, and 50% under RCP8.5 scenario (critical scenario) could decrease the mean groundwater level by 14, 11, and 7 m, respectively. The main result of the study showed that 50% reduction in groundwater withdrawal may increase the groundwater levels significantly in order to restore the aquifer sustainability in the study area. In this study, with assuming that the current harvest of wells in the future period is constant, so the results of studies showed that for the aquifer's sustainability management, the water abstraction from the aquifer should reduce up to 50% of the existing wells. Changing the irrigation method from surface to subdroplet irrigation plays an important role in reducing the withdrawal from the aquifer. The results of a study in Iran have shown that the change in the irrigation method from surface to subdroplet irrigation causes a 40% reduction in water use for agriculture.     

Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources Availability and Agricultural Water Demand in the West Bank

Global climate change is predicted as a result of increased concentrations of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. It is predicted that climate change will result in increasing temperature by 2 to 6°C and a possible reduction of precipitation of up to 16% in the Mediterranean basin. In this study, the West Bank is taken as a case study from the Mediterranean basin to evaluate the effects of such climate change on water resources availability and agricultural water demands. Due to the uncertainty in climate change impacts on temperature and precipitation, a number of scenarios for these impacts were assumed within the range of predicted changes. For temperature, three scenarios of 2, 4 and 6°C increase were assumed. For precipitation, two scenarios of no change and 16% precipitation reduction were assumed. Based on these scenarios, monthly evapotranspiration and monthly precipitation excess depths were estimated at seven weather stations distributed over the different climatic and geographical areas of the West Bank. GIS spatial analyses showed that the increase in temperature predicted by climate change could potentially increase agricultural water demands by up to 17% and could also result in reducing annual groundwater recharge by up to 21% of existing values. However, the effects of reduced precipitation resulting from climate change are more enormous as a 16% reduction in precipitation could result in reducing annual groundwater recharge in the West Bank by about 30% of existing value. When this effect is combined with a 6°C increase in temperature, the reduction in groundwater recharge could reach 50%.     

气候变化对嘉陵江流域水资源量的影响分析

 嘉陵江是长江的最大支流,流域面积约16万km2。针对2050,2100年不同的气候变化情景,选取较为不利的参数组合,根据降水、气温、湿度、风速、日照等气候要素的变化,建立潜在蒸发量模型计算流域的潜在蒸发量（ET0）,再根据流域内植被的蒸散发系数（Kc）,计算流域的面平均蒸散发量（ETc）。并利用流域面平均降水量减去径流深得到流域的实际蒸散发量,对计算的流域面平均蒸散发量进行验证。对不同的水平年利用降水的预测成果（气候变化情景不同具有不同的降水量预测成果）及计算流域的面平均蒸散发量,根据水量平衡模型分析计算气候变化对嘉陵江流域水量的影响。结果表明：不利条件下2050年年径流将减少23.0%～27.9%;2100将减少28.2%～35.2%;2050,2100年平均年径流分别相当于目前7年一遇和12年一遇的干旱年。由此说明,气候变化对流域内的水资源量影响十分显著。      

Comprehensive Assessment of Water Resources in the United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Lack of sufficient quantities of water in the UAE is one of the major problems facing sustainable development. The arid climate of the country plays a significant role in the water resources availability. Rainfall, which is a main source of recharge for different water resources, such as surface water and groundwater, is scanty and extremely irregular in time and space. Evaporation, which reduces the amount of surface water, is high. Heavy pumping of groundwater has deteriorated groundwater levels. Desalination plants have been launched in different parts of the country to meet increasing water demands due to increasing population and economical development in the country. The continued reduction of water storage will hinder the development in the country. To avoid this problem, integrated water resources management (IWRM) strategy should be implemented. Searching for new non-conventional resources is also essential. This paper aims to assess the conventional and non-conventional water resources in the UAE and estimates the past and future water demands. In addition, this article focuses on future water strategy scenarios and plans.     

Benin 2025—Balancing Future Water Availability and Demand Using the WEAP ‘Water Evaluation and Planning’ System

In Benin, annual water availability per capita far exceeds the critical threshold of about 1,700 m³, but during the dry season, water scarcity occurs at the local scale. By modeling the water balance of the Ouémé–Bonou catchment with WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning System), this study aimed at analyzing Benin’s future water situation under different scenarios of socio-economic development and climate change until 2025. The results show that the pressure on Benin’s water resources will increase, leading to greater competition for surface water. Furthermore, financial and technological constraints hinder a satisfactory development, and exploration of groundwater and reservoir resources. However, improvements are most needed, especially in rural areas. Decreasing inflows and groundwater recharge due to climate change aggravate this situation. Even though there are uncertainties and constraints concerning the model and input data, this study shows that the WEAP results offer a solid basis to assist planners in developing recommendations for future water resource management by revealing hot spots of action.     

若尔盖湿地流域径流变化及其对气候变化的响应

为探索未来气候变化情景下若尔盖高寒湿地水文过程和水循环演变规律,利用分布式水文模型,研究2020—2050年不同气候变化情景下若尔盖湿地流域径流变化趋势以及气候变化对湿地径流的影响。结果表明:在未来气候变化情景下,若尔盖湿地流域径流呈减少趋势,玛曲站径流减少比率最大,其次为若尔盖站,最后为唐克站;非汛期径流量减少幅度明显高于汛期,若尔盖湿地2020—2050年非汛期径流在未来气候变化情景下径流减少比率大部分在25%以上。非汛期径流的锐减可能会进一步加剧若尔盖湿地的退化和萎缩,导致黄河中下游区域的可利用水资源量减少。     

基于Modflow 的潜水位对气候变化和人类活动改变的响应

采用GMS-Modflow 软件构建了华北平原吴桥县的潜水运动模型,利用验证后的模型模拟了基准、气候变化和人类自主改变3 种情景下未来40年该区潜水位对气候变化和人类活动的响应。结果表明：现状情景下,未来40年潜水位将以平均19.3cm/a 的速度持续下降,从而导致2050年初潜水位较2011年初下降7.74m ;综合考虑气候变化的直接和间接影响时,虽然A1B 、A2 和B1 排放情景下利用GCM预估的未来40年平均年降雨量分别增加为4.1% 、5.37% 和3.86% ,但潜水位仍然以16.9cm/a 、18.5cm/a 和19.3cm/a 的速度下降,说明未来降雨的小幅增加对减缓潜水位降幅的效果微弱,人类必须采取自主措施才能应对潜水位持续下降;采取节水措施减少灌溉量对缓解潜水位下降效果最显著,其次为用非常规水源替代地下水抽水以及增加地表引水能力,而加大深层抽水量、增加非灌溉用水和地表引水量的减少都会导致潜水位下降态势进一步加剧。     

开封市水资源特征及增加水资源的措施

开封市水资源量主要体现在降水量、地表水和地下水三个方面。通过对这些水资源特点进行分析,发现地表水和地下水在将来的引用上存在一定的限制,而大气降水则有一定的潜力。针对这些因素,制定了补源工程、防污染措施以及地表水和地下水联合调度等措施。     

Simulating Future Groundwater Recharge in Coastal and Inland Catchments

Groundwater is a primary source of drinking water in the Mediterranean, however, climate variability in conjunction with mismanagement renders it vulnerable to depletion. Spatiotemporal studies of groundwater recharge are the basis to develop strategies against this phenomenon. In this study, groundwater recharge was spatiotemporally quantified using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in one coastal and one inland hydrological basin in Greece. A double calibration/validation (CV) procedure using streamflow data and MODIS ET was conducted for the inland basin of Mouriki, whereas only ET values were used in the coastal basin of Anthemountas. Calibration and simulation recharge were accurate in both sites according to statistical indicators and previous studies. In Mouriki basin, mean recharge and runoff were estimated as 16% and 9%, respectively. In Anthemountas basin recharge to the shallow aquifer and surface runoff were estimated as 12% and 16%, respectively. According to the predicted RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, significant variations in groundwater recharge are predicted in the coastal zone for the period 2020–2040 with average annual recharges decreasing by 30% (RCP 4.5) and 25% (RCP 8.5). Variations in groundwater recharge in the inland catchment of Mouriki were insignificant for the simulated period. Anthemountas basin was characterized by higher runoff rates. Groundwater management in coastal aquifers should include detailed monitoring of hydrological parameters, reinforced groundwater recharge during winter and reduced groundwater abstraction during summer depending on the spatiotemporal distribution of groundwater recharge.