Amenities and urban residential structure: An amenity-embedded model of residential choice

The basic model of residential choice, which has been established by generalizing Von Thünen's concept to an urban context, states that the equilibrium structure of residential land use is determined by the trade-off between accessibility and space. The willingness to sacrifice space for accessibility differs between households and depends on household income. The equilibrium land use is the outcome of the interplay between the income elasticity of space consumption and the income elasticity of commuting outlays. The primary purpose of this article is to extend the basic model by incorporating a location-dependent quality of the environment. The proposed model examines the locational consequences of household choice as influenced by a complicated interplay among three factors: the income elasticity of housing demand, the income elasticity of commuting costs, and the location-dependent amenity schedule. The equilibrium land use is contrasted for two types of cities: the case 1 city in which the level of amenities increases toward the urban fringe, and the case 2 city in which the level of amenities is assumed to decrease as one moves toward the urban fringe. Received: 2 August 1999 / Accepted: 18 September 2000     

Firm relocation decisions in The Netherlands: An ordered logit approach

This article explores the determinants of firm migration in The Netherlands. First, based on the existing literature a theoretical framework is developed. Second, based on aggregate data firm relocation processes in The Netherlands are discussed in terms of numbers, sectoral composition, origins and destinations (regions), distance moved and employments effects. In the third part a formal model will be tested using individual data of firms. The relocation decisions of individual firms will be related to firm and location characteristics by means of an ordered logit model. The results indicate that the decision to relocate is mainly determined by firm internal factors and to a lesser extent by site related factors. Received 1 July 1999 / Accepted 28 November 1999     

The propagation of uncertainty through travel demand models: An exploratory analysis

The future operations of transportation systems involve a lot of uncertainty – in both inputs and model parameters. This work investigates the stability of contemporary transport demand model outputs by quantifying the variability in model inputs, such as zonal socioeconomic data and trip generation rates, and simulating the propagation of their variation through a series of common demand models over a 25-zone network. The results suggest that uncertainty is likely to compound itself – rather than attenuate – over a series of models. Mispredictions at early stages (e.g., trip generation) in multi-stage models appear to amplify across later stages. While this effect may be counteracted by equilibrium assignment of traffic flows across a network, predicted traffic flows are highly and positively correlated. Received: March 2001/Accepted: August 2001     

Spent nuclear fuel and residential property values: the influence of proximity, visual cues and public information

This article examines whether public knowledge of spent fuel storage at nuclear power plants, and any local adverse risk perceptions that may have occurred, affect the sale price of single-family residential properties. We present evidence from the Rancho Seco, California, plant on residential property values using an hedonic modeling framework. We include a large number of control variables, data with a high level of spatial detail and a number of public information variables in order to model property market effects within a fifteen mile radius of the plant. Our findings indicate that proximity and visual reminders of the plant have some influence on local property markets, and that there is a small media coverage effect on single-family home sale prices. Received: 6 May 1998 / Accepted: 26 May 1999     

The new intra-urban dynamics: Suburbanisation and functional specialisation in French cities

This article examines the relationships between the employment suburbanisation from central cities towards their suburbs, and the process of intra-urban specialisation that occurred simultaneously in the fifty largest French metropolitan areas. A methodology is proposed to identify urban subcentres and to analyse the effects of the intra-urban specialisations on suburbanisation patterns. We conclude that the specialisation of both subcentres and central cities has a significant effect on suburbanisation rates. Lastly, an intra-metropolitan shift/share analysis provides additional insights into the employment dynamics of central cities and suburbs during the last twenty years. Received: 25 July 2000 / Accepted: 29 May 2001     

Retail structural dynamics and the forces behind big-box retailing

Recent change on the American retail landscape warrants a revisit to the catastrophe framework originated by Harris and Wilson (1978). A retail revolution, centered around the growth of big-box retailing, is recreating metropolitan retail structure. Alterations to both the sizes and spatial distributions of retailers in nearly every sector have resulted. This research presents a theoretical inquiry into the forces behind this change through an adoption and extension of the catastrophe theory framework. Results suggest that changes in retail structure, though they have altered consumer behavior, are more attributable to changes in the cost structures of firms than to changes in the preferences of consumers. Received: June 2000/Accepted: December 2000     

Modelling residential location choice in an area with spatial barriers

A model is presented for residential location choice in rural areas with spatial barriers. We address the problem through comparative static analysis focusing on how residential location choices are affected by a new road link across the spatial barrier. We proceed through a probability theoretical approach: choose a family of utility functions representing every possible location, and equip this family with a probability measure. Then choose a representative within an equivalence class of utility functions, and represent the probability distribution by a parametrized family of distributions. Our analysis demonstrates that investments in new road links do not necessarily represent an adequate instrument for achieving ambitions in regional policy. We identify reasonable situations where a new road link could just as easily generate net migration from the area in which the investments are directed. In general, our analysis demonstrates how agglomeration and centralisation tendencies can be considerably affected by transportation infrastructure innovations. Received: June 1999/Accepted: June 2001 This paper benefited from comments by Bj?rn Sandvik and Lars-G?ran Mattsson.     

The regional distribution of Spanish unemployment: A spatial analysis

In this article we propose a set of tools for analysing the regional distribution of unemployment. As we are interested in the characteristics of the distribution as a whole, results from a traditional regression analysis are complemented with those obtained by estimating its external shape before and after being conditioned to factors underlying regional unemployment. In addition, we specifically consider the spatial characteristics of the distribution, and the empirical model we develop to determine explanatory factors includes spatial effects. This framework is applied to the study of the provincial distribution of unemployment rates in Spain. Results point to increasing spatial dependence in the distribution of regional unemployment rates, and a change in the factors causing regional differentials over the last decade.     

Statistical and mathematical sources of regional science theory: Map pattern analysis as an example

Krugman states that “Regional science is not a unified subject. It is best described as a collection of tools.” Unfortunately such a perspective fails to fully acknowledge theoretical dimensions of the accompanying refocusing on geographic expressions of economic linkages, such as those highlighted in spatial externalities specifications. Such promulgated aspects of the spatial economic landscape relate to map pattern, and certainly the spatial statistics and spatial econometrics theory that accompanies it, as well as the underlying substantive theory garnered from a variety of sources. The principal implication is other than “loose- jointed, do-the-best-you-can theorizing”. Received: 22 November 1997 / Accepted: 10 March 1998     

Urban rent and urban dynamics: The determinants of urban development in Italy

Many empirical analyses have proved the existence of an optimal city size through the measurement of economies or diseconomies of scale, generally applied either to the costs of urban services or to elegant econometric estimates of urban and sectoral production functions. But, unfortunately these studies have never produced a common result, and have often been subject to criticism for their restrictive hypotheses. The aim of the present paper is twofold. First of all, urban dynamics in Italy is described through an indicator of urban costs and advantages, i.e. urban rent. House prices are in fact a good indicator of the attraction of an urban area, as they are synthetic and avoid a time lag between the occurrence of phenomena such as demographic change, and the availability of data to capture these phenomena. This study is based on the idea that the difference in house prices between large and small cities is a measure of their relative attraction (and thus their relative location advantage). The second aim is to highlight the determinants of urban dynamics, and especially to understand whether urban development patterns are similar in cities of different size. For this second issue, the paper enters the debate on the existence of an optimal city size for all cities and draws attention to other possible determinanats of urban development. Received: May 2000/Accepted: January 2002     

Regional variations in firm formation: Panel and cross-section data evidence from Finland

This article investigates regional variations in firm formation in Finland between 1989 and 1993, and estimates the effects of regional factors on firm formation utilising panel and cross-sectional data. Panel data evidence shows that the average size of firms and establishments in the subregions tends to explain firm formation in Finland most robustly. Cross-sectional results for Finland and several other countries tend to show that demand growth is also an important factor explaining regional firm formation. Panel data results appear to differ from the cross-sectional ones. Received: 18 December 1997 / Accepted: 14 June 1999     

A state-space approach for measuring regional manufacturing production indices

In this research note we propose a latent variable model in the spirit of Israilevich and Kuttner (1993) to measure regional manufacturing production. In order to test the validity of the proposed methodology, we apply it for those Spanish regions that have a direct quantitative index. The results demonstrate the accuracy of the methodology proposed and show that it can overcome some of the difficulties of the indirect method applied by the INE, the Spanish National Institute of Statistic s. Received: 20 April 1999 / Accepted: 9 February 2001     

Do high technology agglomerations encourage urban sprawl?

This paper looks at the impact of high technology employment concentrations on urban sprawl. A methodology for translating spatial employment patterns, into place of residence patterns, is presented. On this basis, the consumption of land at the urban fringe due to both residential and non-residential uses, is estimated. The method is tested empirically using data relating to the two main outer suburban agglomerations of high technology activity in the Chicago metropolitan area. Two counter-factual situations are simulated. The first relates to a spatial counter-factual whereby the high tech concentrations develop in the city of Chicago or within the inner suburbs. The second presents an industry counter-factual that estimates the land consumption impacts arising from the development of an alternative industrial concentration in the same location. The results of the actual and hypothetical cases are compared. They point to a considerable saving in acreage in all alternative scenarios. Some policy implications are highlighted. Received: March 2001/Accepted: April 2002 Thanks to three anonymous referees for constructive criticism on an earlier draft, to Joe Persky for advice and to Tim Angell Lake County Department of Planning and Development and Bill Syverson, County Community Development, DuPage County who provided access to firm-level employment data. The work was undertaken when the author was Senior Research Fellow at the Great Cities Institute, University of Illinois at Chicago.     

Spatial markets and the potential for economic integration between Canadian and U.S. regions

The potential for further economic integration among Canadian and American regions is measured by comparing province-to-state trade with state-to-state trade, where the latter is used as a benchmark of integration. To accomplish this, an attraction constrained gravity model is derived from micro foundations and estimated. The analysis demonstrates that after controlling for variations in output, distance, wages, productivity, and localization economies, the border remains a significant barrier to trade, although much less than previous estimates of the border effect using internal Canadian trade as a benchmark. The model's results also indicate that the border's influence varies across sectors, and the influence appears to be, in part, related to the presence of tariff and non-tariff barriers. Received: 1 February 1999 / Accepted: 8 August 2000     

A multiple gap approach to spatial economics

In previous work investment and regional location have been analysed in terms of gaps or thresholds that should be closed or passed in order to produce operational results (growth, local development).  The topic is taken up again using a min-algebra which, at least to the knowledge of the author, has not yet be applied to (theoretical) spatial economics, though max-plus algebra has been used to tackle scheduling problems.  Examples of multiple gap situations will be given, together with their econometric implications; min-algebra will be defined, and examples of its applications worked out; topics for further research will be presented in conclusion. Received: October 2000/Accepted: September 2001     

The employment impact of demographic change: A regional analysis

The central concern of this article is with measurement of the economic impact of demographic change at a regional level. To facilitate this, a method is developed which involves the linking together of two hitherto separate analytical techniques: labour market accounts and extended input-output models. The application of the method is demonstrated by reference to three UK regions – West Midlands, Merseyside, and East Anglia – with contrasting demographic and economic histories over the time intervals 1971–1981 and 1981–1991. The employment impact of consumption derived from demographic change is measured in relation to individual elements of the labour market account and comparisons are made with the effects of economic change over the same time periods. Received: 27 February 1997 / Accepted: 5 March 1998     

A model of urban growth with endogenous suburban production centers

This paper presents a theoretical model of the spatial growth of an urban area. Its primary contribution is that suburban production centers arise as small, independent landowners respond to market forces. Other models impose subcenters exogenously and require action by large developers or government agencies. The model predicts almost no undeveloped land is present in struggling cities, but urban sprawl is the hallmark of a growing metropolitan area. There is also anticipatory sprawl: even while all industrial development is concentrated in the central city, a leapfrog zone may sprout between two residential zones in the suburbs. Received: July 2000/Accepted: December 2000     

Integrated regional econometric+input-output modeling: Issues and opportunities

Recent research on integrated econometric+input-output modeling for regional economies is reviewed. The motivations for and the alternative methodological approaches to this type of analysis are examined. Particular attention is given to the issues arising from multiregional linkages and spatial effects in the implementation of these frameworks at the sub-national scale. The linkages between integrated modeling and spatial econometrics are outlined. Directions for future research on integrated econometric and input-output modeling are identified. Received: 20 January 1999 / Accepted: 26 June 1999     

Urban agglomeration: Knowledge spillovers and product diversity

There is no doubt that people like to migrate to large cities because they can acquire a wider range of products and jobs, but also because they can more easily exchange information and ideas. In this respect, we attempt to explain the formation of metropolitan areas by using a general equilibrium model, in which concentration emerges not only from interaction between increasing returns to scale at firm level, transport costs and labor mobility, but also from human capital externalities. This paper shows that there is new scope for government activity. Received: August 2000/Accepted: January 2002 I am indebted to J.L. Ferreira for valuable comments on an earlier draft. I also wish to thank T. Smith, participants at the ERWIT Workshop and EEA Congress, and two anonymous referees for helpful suggestions. Financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology through DGICYT grant PB98-0613-C02-01, and from the Regional Government of Galicia via PGIDT00PXI30001PN is gratefully acknowledged.     

The use of activity-based modeling to analyze the effect of land-use policies on travel behavior

This paper suggests that in order to analyze the effect of land-use policies on travel behavior an integrated framework that extend travel activity-based models to include various land-use issues such as residential location and work place should be developed and use. The importance of analyzing various land-use policies on travel behavior is continuously increasing as various policies such as transit-oriented developments, mixed land-use, different concentrations schemes, and more broadly Smart Growth, are often suggested as a means to mitigate transportation problems. Given our limited understanding of the effects of the various land-use polices on travel behavior it is imported to develop better approaches to analyze such policies. Activity-based models, that treat travel as a derivation of the demand for personal activities, provides an opportunity to better understand travel behavior as the explicit modeling of activities and the consequent tours and trips enable a more credible analysis of responses to policies and their effect on traffic and air quality. The theoretical framework of activity-based models starts with urban and land-use development as inputs; however, there is a need to translate this framework to analyze specific land-use policies. This paper discusses the advantages and potential of activity-based models for analyzing the effect of land-use policies on travel behavior. It suggests improvements that will extend the general framework to achieve a better understanding of travelers’ responses to various land-use policies and shows its advantages over tip-based models, which simply do not have such capabilities. The improved activity-based approach is illustrated through a case study based on the Portland activity-based model combined with a stated-preference residential choice model. A package of land-use policies— including improved land-use, school quality, safety, and transit service in the city center—is introduced, and its effect on household redistribution and regional travel is tested using this integrated framework. The results of this case study show that the effects of the land-use policies introduced had only marginal effects on regional travel.