Subtractive clustering attribute weighting (SCAW) to discriminate the traffic accidents on Konya-Afyonkarahisar highway in Turkey with the help of GIS: A case study

A case study including the discrimination of traffic accidents as accident free and accident cases on Konya-Afyonkarahisar highway in Turkey using the proposed hybrid method based on combining of a new data preprocessing method called subtractive clustering attribute weighting (SCAW) and classifier algorithms with the help of Geographical Information System (GIS) technology has been conducted. In order to improve the discrimination of classifier algorithms including artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive network based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), support vector machine, and decision tree, using data preprocessing need in solution of these kinds of problems (traffic accident case study). So, we have proposed a novel data preprocessing method called subtractive clustering attribute weighting (SCAW) and combined with classifier algorithms. In this study, the experimental data has been obtained by means of using GIS. The obtained GIS attributes are day, temperature, humidity, weather conditions, and month of occurred accident. To evaluate the performance of the proposed hybrid method, the classification accuracy, sensitivity and specificity values have been used. The experimental obtained results are 53.93%, 52.25%, and 38.76% classification successes using alone ANN, ANFIS, and SVM with RBF kernel type, respectively. As for the proposed hybrid method, the classification accuracies of 67.98%, 70.22%, and 61.24% have been obtained using the combination of SCAW with ANN, the combination of SCAW with SVM (radial basis function (RBF) kernel type), and the combination of SCAW with ANFIS, respectively. The proposed SCAW method with the combination of classifier algorithms has been achieved the very promising results in the discrimination of traffic accidents.     

Prediction of coefficient of consolidation in soil using machine learning techniques

Coefficient of consolidation in the soil is the significant engineering properties and an important parameter for designing and auditing of geo-technical structures. Therefore, in this study, authors have proposed an efficient methodology to prediction the coefficient of consolidation using machine learning models namely Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Adaptive Network based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). Further, various feature selection techniques such as Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator algorithm (LASSO), Random Forests - Recursive Feature Elimination (RF-RFE), and Mutual information have also been applied. It has been observed that feature selection methods have enhanced the quality of prediction model by eliminating the irrelevant features and utilized only important features while building the prediction models. Experiments are performed on the dataset collected on the 534 soil samples from Ha Noi –Hai Phong highway project, Vietnam. Experimental results show the adequacy of the proposed model, and the hybrid approach ANFIS which is a fusion of ANN and fuzzy inference system includes complementary information of the uncertainty and adaptability. ANFIS along with LASSO feature selection method produces the coefficient of determination of 0.831 and thus provides the best prediction for the coefficient of consolidation of a soil as compared to other approaches.     

基于 GBDT 的铁路事故类型预测及成因分析

运用数据挖掘技术进行铁路事故类型预测及成因分析, 对于建立铁路事故预警机制具有重要意义. 为此, 本文提出一种基于梯度提升决策树(Grandient boosting decision tree, GBDT)的铁路事故类型预测及成因分析算法. 针对铁路事故记录数据缺失的问题, 提出一种基于属性分布概率的补全算法, 最大程度保持原有数据分布, 从而降低数据缺失对事故类型预测造成的影响. 针对铁路事故记录数据类别失衡的问题, 提出一种集成的GBDT模型, 完成对事故类型的鲁棒性预测. 在此基础上, 根据GBDT预测模型中特征重要度排序, 实现事故成因分析. 通过在开放数据库上进行实验, 验证了本文模型的有效性.     

A novel data preprocessing method to estimate the air pollution (SO2): neighbor-based feature scaling (NBFS)

The forecasting of air pollution is important for living environment and public health. The prediction of SO₂ (sulfur dioxide), which is one of the indicators of air pollution, is a significant part of steps to be done in order to decrease the air pollution. In this study, a novel feature scaling method called neighbor-based feature scaling (NBFS) has been proposed and combined with artificial neural network (ANN) and adaptive network–based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) prediction algorithms in order to predict the SO₂ concentration value is from air quality metrics belonging to Konya province in Turkey. This work consists of two stages. In the first stage, SO₂ concentration dataset has been scaled using neighbor-based feature scaling. In the second stage, ANN and ANFIS prediction algorithms have been used to forecast the SO₂ value of scaled SO₂ concentration dataset. SO₂ concentration dataset was obtained from Air Quality Statistics database of Turkish Statistical Institute. To constitute dataset, the mean values belonging to seasons of winter period have been used with the aim of watching the air pollution changes between dates of December, 1, 2003 and December, 30, 2005. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, the performance measures including mean absolute error (MAE), mean square error (MSE), root mean square error (RMSE), and IA (Index of Agreement) values have been used. After NBFS method applied to SO₂ concentration dataset, the obtained RMSE and IA values are 83.87–0.27 (IA) and 93–0.33 (IA) using ANN and ANFIS, respectively. Without NBFS, the obtained RMSE and IA values are 85.31–0.25 (IA) and 117.71–0.29 (IA) using ANN and ANFIS, respectively. The obtained results have demonstrated that the proposed feature scaling method has been obtained very promising results in the prediction of SO₂ concentration values.     

基于ANFIS的交通事件持续时间预测

针对高速公路交通事故引发交通堵塞的问题,提出一种基于减法聚类和自适应神经模糊推理系统的事件持续时间预测新方法。将该方法应用于交通事件持续时间预测,从I-880数据库中提取事件持续时间相关因素,使用非参数估计法进行显著性分析,将影响程度最大的因素作为模糊系统的输入样本,采用减法聚类对输入样本进行聚类,得到模糊规则数并建立初始模糊推理系统,使用BP反向传播算法和最小二乘估计算法的混合算法对该模糊系统进行训练并优化,建立最终模糊模型。仿真结果证明,该系统对交通事件持续时间预测具有较高检测率和较低误报率。     

基于AdaBoost分类器的实时交通事故预测

传统的道路交通事故预测是对交通事故次数及其造成的损失的历史趋势进行预测,针对其不能反映交通事故与实时交通特性关系、不能有效地预防事故发生的问题,提出一种基于AdaBoost分类器的交通事故实时预测的方法。首先,将交通道路划分为正常、危险两种交通状态,利用实时采集的交通流数据作为特征变量对不同的状态进行表征,将事故的实时预测问题转化为分类问题;然后,采用Parzen窗非参数估计的方法对两种状态在不同时间尺度下候选交通流特征的概率密度函数（PDF）进行估计,利用基于概率分布的可分性判据分析估计的密度函数,选择合适的特征变量及时间尺度,确定样本数据;最后,根据样本数据训练AdaBoost分类器对不同的交通状态进行分类识别。实验结果表明,采用交通流特性的标准差特征对测试样本分类的正确率比平均值特征高7.9%,更能反映不同交通状态的差别,获得更好的分类结果。     

Prediction of local scour around bridge piers using the ANFIS method

Local scour around bridge piers is a complicated physical process and involves highly three-dimensional flows. Thus, the scour depth, which is directly related to the safety of a bridge, cannot be given in the form of the exact relationship of dependent variables via an analytical method. This paper proposes the use of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) method for predicting the scour depth around a bridge pier. Five variables including mean velocity, flow depth, size of sediment particles, critical velocity for particles’ initiation of motion, and pier width were used for the scour depth. For comparison, predictions by the artificial neural network (ANN) model were also provided. Both the ANN model and ANFIS method were trained and validated. The findings indicate that the modeling with dimensional variables yields better predictions than when normalized variables are used. The ANN model was applied to a field-scale dataset. Prediction results indicated that the errors are much larger compared to the case of a laboratory-scale dataset. The MAPE by the ANN model trained with part of the field data was not seriously different from that by the model trained with the laboratory data. However, the application of the ANFIS method improved the predictions significantly, reducing the MAPE to the half of that by the ANN model. Five selected empirical formulas were also applied to the same dataset, and Sheppard and Melville’s formula was found to provide the best prediction. However, the MAPEs for the scour depths predicted by empirical formulas are much larger than MAPEs by either the ANN or the ANFIS method. The ANFIS method predicts much better if the range of the training dataset is sufficiently wide to cover the range of the application dataset.

     

An alternative approach for modelling and simulation of traffic data: artificial neural networks

It is assumed that there is a complicated relationship between the driver characteristics and involvement in traffic accidents. It is quite difficult to simulate the effects of these driver characteristics into the traffic accidents. The artificial neural networks (ANN) approach is proposed for training-predicting the database in this paper since it is a more flexible and assumption-free methodology. The networks are organised in different architectures and the results have been compared in order to determine the best fitting one. Finally, the best possible architecture is selected for a better representation of the survey data and the prediction of accident percentage. The predictions about the outputs for the inputs which are not used in the training of the ANN provide information about the drivers which cannot be reached in the database. The predictions are highly satisfactory and the ANNs have been found to be reliable processing systems for modelling and simulation in the traffic data assessments.     

基于自适应神经模糊推理系统的高速公路临界安全车距研究

汽车高速追尾是我国高速公路交通事故的主要形式之一,研究高速公路汽车临界安全车距对预防汽车追尾事故的发生具有积极的意义。文章通过对高速公路汽车临界安全车距的分析,提出了一种高速公路汽车临界安全车距的ANFIS(自适应神经模糊推理系统)模型,经计算和对比分析,验证了该模型的有效性。     

A real-time vehicle detection and a novel vehicle tracking systems for estimating and monitoring traffic flow on highways

Real-time highway traffic monitoring systems play a vital role in road traffic management, planning, and preventing frequent traffic jams, traffic rule violations, and fatal road accidents. These systems rely entirely on online traffic flow info estimated from time-dependent vehicle trajectories. Vehicle trajectories are extracted from vehicle detection and tracking data obtained by processing road-side camera images. General-purpose object detectors including Yolo, SSD, EfficientNet have been utilized extensively for real-time object detection task, but, in principle, Yolo is preferred because it provides a high frame per second (FPS) performance and robust object localization functionality. However, this algorithm’s average vehicle classification accuracy is below 57%, which is insufficient for traffic flow monitoring. This study proposes improving the vehicle classification accuracy of Yolo, and developing a novel bounding box (Bbox)-based vehicle tracking algorithm. For this purpose, a new vehicle dataset is prepared by annotating 7216 images with 123831 object patterns collected from highway videos. Nine machine learning-based classifiers and a CNN-based classifier were selected. Next, the classifiers were trained via the dataset. One out of ten classifiers with the highest accuracy was selected to combine to Yolo. This way, the classification accuracy of the Yolo-based vehicle detector was increased from 57% to 95.45%. Vehicle detector 1 (Yolo) and vehicle detector 2 (Yolo + best classifier), and the Kalman filter-based tracking as vehicle tracker 1 and the Bbox-based tracking as vehicle tracker 2 were applied to the categorical/total vehicle counting tasks on 4 highway videos. The vehicle counting results show that the vehicle counting accuracy of the developed approach (vehicle detector 2 + vehicle tracker 2) was improved by 13.25% and this method performed better than the other 3 vehicle counting systems implemented in this study.     

基于路网结构的城市交通事故短期风险预测方法

城市交通事故一般都发生在公共道路上,然而现有的交通事故风险预测算法都通过对预测区域进行规则网格化来确定预测空间单位,导致预测精度不高且实用价值较低。本文将道路路段作为预测单位,采用图卷积和长短期记忆网络,构建了一种基于路网结构的城市交通事故短期风险预测方法(traffic accidents risk prediction based on road network,TARPBRN)。该方法能对指定路段短期内的交通事故风险进行预测,从而可以有针对性地进行治理,减少交通事故的发生。本文使用杭州市西湖区的交通事故数据对模型进行了训练,并与4种常用的计量经济学模型和3种已有的深度学习预测算法进行了对比。实验结果证明本文算法在准确度、正确率和漏报率等方面都优于已有算法。     

Automatic detection of electroencephalographic changes using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system employing Lyapunov exponents

This paper describes the application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model for automatic detection of electroencephalographic changes. Decision making was performed in two stages: feature extraction by computation of Lyapunov exponents and classification by the ANFIS trained with the backpropagation gradient descent method in combination with the least squares method. Five types of electroencephalogram (EEG) signals were classified by five ANFIS classifiers. To improve diagnostic accuracy, the sixth ANFIS classifier (combining ANFIS) was trained using the outputs of the five ANFIS classifiers as input data. The proposed ANFIS model combined the neural network adaptive capabilities and the fuzzy logic qualitative approach. Some conclusions concerning the saliency of features on classification of the EEG signals were obtained through analysis of the ANFIS. The performance of the ANFIS model was evaluated in terms of training performance and classification accuracies and the results confirmed that the proposed ANFIS model has potential in classifying the EEG signals.     

Application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system for vigilance level estimation by using wavelet-entropy feature extraction

This paper presents the application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model for estimation of vigilance level by using electroencephalogram (EEG) signals recorded during transition from wakefulness to sleep. The developed ANFIS model combined the neural network adaptive capabilities and the fuzzy logic qualitative approach. This study comprises of three stages. In the first stage, three types of EEG signals (alert signal, drowsy signal and sleep signal) were obtained from 30 healthy subjects. In the second stage, for feature extraction, obtained EEG signals were separated to its sub-bands using discrete wavelet transform (DWT). Then, entropy of each sub-band was calculated using Shannon entropy algorithm. In the third stage, the ANFIS was trained with the back-propagation gradient descent method in combination with least squares method. The extracted features of three types of EEG signals were used as input patterns of the three ANFIS classifiers. In order to improve estimation accuracy, the fourth ANFIS classifier (combining ANFIS) was trained using the outputs of the three ANFIS classifiers as input data. The performance of the ANFIS model was tested using the EEG data obtained from 12 healthy subjects that have not been used for the training. The results confirmed that the developed ANFIS classifier has potential for estimation of vigilance level by using EEG signals.     

Data dimensionality reduction with application to simplifying RBF network structure and improving classification performance

For high dimensional data, if no preprocessing is carried out before inputting patterns to classifiers, the computation required may be too heavy. For example, the number of hidden units of a radial basis function (RBF) neural network can be too large. This is not suitable for some practical applications due to speed and memory constraints. In many cases, some attributes are not relevant to concepts in the data at all. In this paper, we propose a novel separability-correlation measure (SCM) to rank the importance of attributes. According to the attribute ranking results, different attribute subsets are used as inputs to a classifier, such as an RBF neural network. Those attributes that increase the validation error are deemed irrelevant and are deleted. The complexity of the classifier can thus be reduced and its classification performance improved. Computer simulations show that our method for attribute importance ranking leads to smaller attribute subsets with higher accuracies compared with the existing SUD and Relief-F methods. We also propose a modified method for efficient construction of an RBF classifier. In this method we allow for large overlaps between clusters corresponding to the same class label. Our approach significantly reduces the structural complexity of the RBF network and improves the classification performance.     

汽车交通事故混沌分析及预测方法

提出一种新型的事故混沌理论.利用混沌理论和故障树法分析了汽车交通事故中的混沌特性,建立了基于事故混沌理论的汽车交通事故预测模型,并分析了预测模型的最大可预测尺度.该预测模型利用相空间近邻等距法对交通事故中的混沌吸引子进行预测,从而实现了对汽车交通事故的预测.仿真结果表明事故混沌理论对分析和预测汽车交通事故是有效的.     

案例推理分类器属性权重的内省学习调整方法

针对案例推理（CBR）分类器中案例属性权重的分配问题,提出一种基于内省学习的属性权重迭代调整方法。该方法可根据CBR分类器对训练案例分类的结果调整属性的权重。基于成功驱动的权重学习策略,若当前训练案例分类成功,则首先根据权重调整公式增加匹配属性的权重并减少不匹配属性的权重;然后对所有权重进行归一化从而得到当次迭代的新权重。实验结果表明,所提方法的CBR分类器在UCI数据集PD、Heart和WDBC的准确率比传统CBR分类器分别提高1.72%、4.44%和1.05%。故成功驱动的内省学习权重调整方法可以提高权重分配的合理性,进而提高CBR分类器的准确率。     

基于快速SVM的大规模网络流量分类方法

支持向量机方法具有良好的分类准确率、稳定性与泛化性,在网络流量分类领域已有初步应用,但在面对大规模网络流量分类问题时却存在计算复杂度高、分类器训练速度慢的缺陷。为此,提出一种基于比特压缩的快速SVM方法,利用比特压缩算法对初始训练样本集进行聚合与压缩,建立具有权重信息的新样本集,在损失尽量少原始样本信息的前提下缩减样本集规模,进一步利用基于权重的SVM算法训练流量分类器。通过大规模样本集流量分类实验对比,快速SVM方法能在损失较少分类准确率的情况下,较大程度地缩减流量分类器的训练时间以及未知样本的预测时间,同时,在无过度压缩前提下,其分类准确率优于同等压缩比例下的随机取样SVM方法。本方法在保留SVM方法较好分类稳定性与泛化性能的同时,有效提升了其应对大规模流量分类问题的能力。     

Forecasting highway casualties under the effect of railway development policy in Turkey using artificial neural networks

This study presents forecast of highway casualties in Turkey using nonlinear multiple regression (NLMR) and artificial neural network (ANN) approaches. Also, the effect of railway development on highway safety using ANN models was evaluated. Two separate NLMR and ANN models for forecasting the number of accidents (A) and injuries (I) were developed using 27 years of historical data (1980–2006). The first 23 years data were used for training, while the remaining data were utilized for testing. The model parameters include gross national product per capita (GNP-C), numbers of vehicles per thousand people (V-TP), and percentage of highways, railways, and airways usages (TSUP-H, TSUP-R, and TSUP-A, respectively). In the ANN models development, the sigmoid and linear activation functions were employed with feed-forward back propagation algorithm. The performances of the developed NLMR and ANN models were evaluated by means of error measurements including mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R ²). ANN models were used for future estimates because NLMR models produced unreasonably decreasing projections. The number of road accidents and as well as injuries was forecasted until 2020 via different possible scenarios based on (1) taking TSUPs at their current trends with no change in the national transport policy at present, and (2) shifting passenger traffic from highway to railway at given percentages but leaving airway traffic with its current trend. The model results indicate that shifting passenger traffic from the highway system to railway system resulted in a significant decrease on highway casualties in Turkey.     

基于改进模糊聚类与ANFIS的高速公路事件检测

为了准确并及时地发现高速公路上的交通事故隐患,减少事故引发的交通延迟,提高高速公路运行安全性,结合减法聚类与模糊C均值（FCM）聚类算法对输入样本数据进行聚类,建成初始模糊推理系统,然后通过神经网络的自学习机制,训练模糊系统参数,确定模糊推理规则,建立最终模糊模型。通过仿真实验结果对比,验证了基于改进模糊聚类与自适应神经模糊推理系统（ANFIS）建模方法的有效性。     

一种基于贝叶斯网络模型的交通事故预测方法

大部分的交通事故都可以预测.有效的交通事故预测能从很大程度上减少人员伤亡和交通阻塞.贝叶斯网络是目前不确定知识和推理领域最有效的理论模型之一.该文提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络模型理论的交通事故预测方法.在综合考虑交通事故成因的基础上利用领域专家知识构建网络模型,在已有的事故数据的基础上提出基于贝叶斯法则的学习算法,并通过计算变量间的条件概率来计算事故发生的可能性,达到事故预测的目的.文章的最后,通过历史数据进行仿真实验,对仿真结果和该模型的适用范围进行了分析.