Sustainability Analysis for Yellow River Water Resources Using the System Dynamics Approach

The water resource issue is one of the most significant problemsthat the Yellow River basin will face this century, and one which has received much attention by public and government for several years. Water authorities will face great challenges in meeting the in-stream flow requirements and providing more water for growing populations, industry and agriculture. In order toevaluate the sustainability of the water resource system inthe study area, an object-oriented system dynamics approachhas been used to develop a model for the water resourcessystem in the Yellow River basin, which is referred to asthe Water Resources System Dynamics (WRSD) model. It hasbeen developed for simulating a water resource system andcapturing the dynamic character of the main elements affectingwater demand and supply in the study area. For thebusiness-as-usual (BaU) scenario, the water demands in theYellow River basin are estimated 50.9, 56.5, and 59.5billion m³ for 2010, 2020, and 2030. The existing andpotential water supplies from surface water, aquifers andtreated waste-water are estimated, and potential waterdemands for domestic, industrial and agricultural uses areprojected. Various water supply and demand scenarios havethen been explored by changing variables and parameters,and the sustainability index of the water supply system isestimated for different sub-regions over various periods.     

流域水资源量保护与恢复若干问题的探讨

人口的大量增加,城市的迅速扩张,需水量增加,水资源过度地被开发、水环境恶化,导致人类可以利用的水资源越来越少,水资源保护实为重中之重。流域水资源的保护一度主要侧重于水质的保护,水量保护与恢复没有得到应有的关注。根据水资源量的特征和保护的意义,分析水资源量保护和恢复影响因素,探讨水资源保护的相关问题。     

An Integrated Indicator Based on Basin Hydrology,Environment, Life,and Policy: The Watershed Sustainability Index

Several issues impact the water sustainability of a river basin. Among them are the social, economic, and environmental aspects. However, they are often treated separately, and not as an integrated, dynamic process. In order to integrate the hydrologic, environmental, life and policy issues, as well as the existing pressures and policy responses in one quantitative, dynamic, and aggregated indicator, a watershed sustainability index (WSI), which uses a pressure–state–response function, was developed and is proposed in this paper. Applied to a 2,200 km² Unesco–HELP demonstration basin in Brazil (SF Verdadeiro), the value obtained for WSI was 0.65, which represents an intermediate level of basin sustainability.     

晋西王家沟流域水源现状及旱地果园用水模式探析

通过调查分析晋西王家沟流域水源现状及人畜用水情况，提出了该区旱地果园的用水模式，即旱井集流节水栽培技术模式，这一模式首先利用现代材料和传统技术相结合的旱井修筑马天然降水贮存于旱井之中，然后采用节水保墒技术，充分把有限集流用于果园生产，提高了水的利用率和果园效益。     

Water Resources Sustainability and Optimal Cropping Pattern in Farming Systems; A Multi-Objective Fractional Goal Programming Approach

Water resources sustainability has the main contribution to the existence and durability of the farming systems and strongly depends on the cropping pattern practices. A comprehensive cropping pattern planning takes in to account the high level of interrelation of the environmental, economic and social aspects of farming systems. In order to assess the sustainability of water resources and determine an optimal pattern of cropping in a rural farming system, this paper introduces two ratios of “net return/water consumption” and “labor employment/water consumption” and attempts to simultaneously optimize them as the sustainability indicators. To this purpose, a multi-objective fractional goal programming (MOFGP) procedure is considered as the main approach of the study to be accomplished by several other single and multi-objective linear and fractional programming models. The results show that the FP models are more significant to contribute in assessing the sustainability indicators compared to the LP models, and the MOFGP solution is considered better, compared to the single objective FP solutions. The results will be illustrated quantitatively.     

图们江流域水资源现状分析与研究

通过对图们江流域历年降水资料、径流资料和出入境水量的分析计算,详细的阐述了图们江流域水资源现状、时空分布规律。并运用水量平衡分析法验证了水资源计算的合理性。为东北亚地区经济的发展和壮大,提供了前期准备工作。     

水资源管理模式探讨

本文以未资源工作由计划经济的管理体制,向适应社会主义市场经济要求的管理体制转变,及利用方式由粗放型变约型转变,这两个根本性转变、水资源管理新的含义和任务等理论进行探讨,以澄清思路,统一认识,为进一步做好水资源管理工作打下理论基础。     

Techno-political Decision Making for Water Resources Development: The Jordan River Watershed

Discussions on water resources development generally focus on a variety of techn ical options, often without considering the potential political repercussions of each option. This paper incorporates both technical and political considerations in a 'technopolitical' decision-making framework. Water resources developm ent alternatives are then examined to evalu ate their respective priorities for development in Israel, Palestine and Jordan, which are the major riparians of the Jordan River. Particular account is taken of the Middle East peace negotiations, and consequent political changes. Each proposal is designed to provide incentives for sharing resources and benefits among the riparian states.     

塔里木河流域水资源利用与管理分析

在进行塔里木河流域水资源开发利用分析的基础上,总结了近年来塔里木河流域开发治理方面所做工作。指明了源流区大量开荒。自用水量急剧增加,导致汇入干流的水量减少;干流区上游引水过多,下游来水量急剧下降;流域内水利基础设施薄弱;缺乏流域总体规划等水资源开发中的主要问题,提出了提高水资源利用效率的措施包括实行全流域水资源的统一管理和配置;借助于水价和水权交易等手段,实现交易主体“双赢”;依靠技术创新和工程建设。实行维护生态与发展生产相结合等。     

水资源开发利用条件下的流域水循环研究

针对高强度水资源开发利用条件下流域水循环研究存在的问题,从认知、试验、理论、方法四个层次探讨了适应水资源开发利用条件的流域水循环的研究方法,构建了一个以水资源配置模型与水循环模型耦合为核心,以流域供需水分析和流域生态、环境、经济综合评价为响应的多目标调控模型。利用该模型,对黄河流域水资源进行了合理配置计算。结果表明,现状条件下黄河流域缺水严重;而在未来情境下缺水将更加严重,大力节水能够较大程度缓解缺水状况。     

Planning for Regional Water System Sustainability Through Water Resources Security Assessment Under Uncertainties

A leader-follower relationship in multiple layers of decision makers under uncertainties is a critical challenge associated with water resources security (WRS). To address this problem, a credibility-based chance-constrained hierarchical programming model with WRS assessment is developed for regional water system sustainability planning. This model can deal with the sequential decision-making problem with different goals and preferences, and reflect uncertainties presented as fuzzy sets. The effectiveness of the developed model is demonstrated through a real-world water resources management system in Beijing, China. A leader-follower interactive solution algorithm based on satisfactory degree is utilized to improve computational efficiency. Results show the that: (a) surface water, groundwater, recycled water, and off water would account for 27.01, 27.44, 23.11, and 22.44% of the total water supplies, respectively; (b) the entire pollutant emissions and economic benefits would consequently decrease by 31.53 and 22.88% when the statue changes from quite safe to extremely far from safe; and (c) a high credibility level would correspond to low risks of insufficient water supply and overloaded pollutant emissions, which lowers economic benefits and pollutant emissions. By contrast, a low credibility level would decrease the limitations of constraints, which leads to high economic benefits and pollutant emissions, but system risk would be increased. These findings can aid different decision makers in identifying the desired strategies for regional water resources management under multiple uncertainties, and support the in-depth analysis of the interrelationships among water security, system efficiency, and credibility level.     

Watershed Approach for the Protection of Drinking Water Supplies in Central Illinois

A number of communities in Central Illinois that depend on surface water supplies for their drinking water have been experiencing water quality problems in recent years. Since the dominant land use in the region is agriculture, most of the water quality problems are generally attributed to changes in agricultural practices, especially application of fertilizers and pesticides. The most pressing drinking water quality problem in Central Illinois is high nitrate concentration. The maximum contaminant level (MCL) for nitrate in drinking water is set at10 milligrams per liter. A Technical Advisory Committee developed a set of recommendations on how to implement watershed-based solutions to the water quality problem in Central Illinois based on the results of several hydrologic and water quality studies.     

An Extension of the Sustainability Index Definition in Water Resources Planning and Management

The sustainability index (SI) is a relatively new concept for measuring the performance of water resource systems over long time periods. Its definition is aimed at providing an indication of the integral behaviour of the system with regards to possible undesired consequences if misbalance of available and required waters occurs. SI is initially defined as a product and later reformulated as a geometric mean of performance indicators: reliability, resilience and vulnerability. As an extension of a recently published methodology to compute and use SI, in this paper we propose introducing two more indicators of system performance: (1) reliability of annual firm (safe) water as a system yield and (2) deviation of reservoir levels from corresponding rule curves. The last indicator is of particular importance if there are multi-purpose reservoirs in the system because reservoirs are the most important and sensitive regulators of the water regime within the system. We also propose a framework for assessing system performance in a systematic manner to compute SI at various locations within the system if different operating strategies are applied and, finally, how to evaluate strategies according to the resulting SI by using multi-criteria methods. A case study example from Serbia is used to illustrate the results of measuring sustainability under alternative operating scenarios for a system with three reservoirs and two diversion structures.     

Pareto Optimization of Water Resources Using the Nexus Approach

The continuously growing population in combination with the escalating urbanization and economic growth increase the pressure on water, energy and food resources of our planet. This entails an urgent need for proper water resources management within the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus concept. The WEF nexus considers water, energy and food as three continuously interconnected sectors, whose complex interactions lead to an increased number of trade-offs and potential conflicts. Computational modeling can be used to quantify these interactions, reduce trade-offs and promote synergies. We investigate the water resources in the Upper Blue Nile River (UBNR) basin, one of the two main sources of the Nile, using the Hydronomeas tool. Hydronomeas is based on the parameterization-simulation-optimization method; optimization is implemented in two levels, using a holistic approach and multiple criteria. We assign various targets, constraints and priorities to the UBNR system of reservoirs, hydropower plants and irrigation projects and derive a Pareto front that contains alternative, optimal solutions, for which improvement of one objective can be achieved only at the expense of another. By visualizing the trade-offs between the conflicting objectives of hydropower and irrigation, we aim to help decision makers understand changes due to different management policies and thus, achieve greater efficiency in water resources management in the Nile region.     

关于生态水利与北江流域生态水利建设的一些探讨

该文叙述了生态水利的有关问题,介绍了国内外河流治理与开发的动向,简单分析了北江流域生态水利建设面临的问题,对北江流域的生态水利建设作了一些探讨。     

Development of a Combined Index to Evaluate Sustainability of Water Resources Systems

It is necessary to assess water resources sustainability for development and management of a large-scale water resources system with various components such as reservoirs, inter-basin water transfer, and consumers and stakeholders in various sectors including drinking, industry, fish farming, agriculture, and environment. For this purpose, in the present study, a spatially-distributed model was developed based on the system dynamics approach. Then, a set of individual indexes were utilized to evaluate the behavior of a water resources system by considering quantitative/qualitative environmental, economic, and water productivity aspects. Each of the individual indexes was computed for all system nodes. A combined index was further developed and applied to evaluate the system sustainability. To evaluate the efficiency of the combined index and ensure its proper performance, the new method was compared with the well-known multi-criteria decision making method. The results indicated that the combined index was 15.315 for sustainable development with implementation of an integrated water management policy, while the index for the current condition was 15.361. For other management policies that were not based on the integrated management concept, the values of the combined index were higher than those for the current condition.

     

漳江流域水资源分配及利用对策

为了保障古雷港口经济开发区的开发建设，该文分析了漳江流域的水资源可供水量和开发区的需水量，进行了水量供需平衡分析，提出漳江流域水资源重新分配和利用对策，以保证古雷港口经济开发区的用水量。     

韩江流域水资源调配存在的问题及对策研究

该文以韩江流域水资源调配现状为基础,从水资源供需平衡、水资源调配工程体系、水资源调配机制以及水资源使用方面,分析韩江流域水资源调配存在的问题,并有针对性地提出现实可行的对策:完善工程体系;编制分配方案;促进节约使用;加强科学研究;加快法规建设。     

基于DPSIR-PCA的山西省水资源可持续性评价

针对山西省2003—2016年水资源的可持续发展情况,构建基于驱动力—压力—状态—影响—响应的水资源可持续性评价指标体系,运用主成分分析法得出评价指标主成分、主成分得分以及综合得分,绘制出得分曲线。研究表明:山西省水资源驱动力持续提高,水资源使用的压力逐步减小,状态波动趋向稳定,影响力逐渐加大,水资源系统可持续性稳步上升,具有发展潜力。DPSIR-PCA模型选取的评价指标具有全面性和代表性,能够准确地反映水资源可持续性的变化,该模型评价指标精简、计算过程简便、结果更为精确,可为未来山西省水资源可持续性评价提供新的方法。