Risk assessment of nuclear power plants

The objective of the present work is to develop recommendations for controlling the safety of nuclear power plants on the basis of risk assessments and safety certification of nuclear power plants. The Kursk nuclear power plant is considered as an example of a nuclear power plant with an RBMK reactor. The concept of risk assessment of a nuclear power plant consists in constructing a set of scenarios of the appearance and development of possible accidents followed by an evaluation of the realization frequency and determination of the scales of the consequences of each one. The result of an analysis is an evaluation of a system of risk indicators in accordance with the requirements of the safety compliance certificate of the nuclear power plant as well as the development of recommendations for increasing plant safety. In risk assessment, the consequences are divided into categories of the seriousness of the damage, for which their probability is evaluated separately. The graphical interpretation of risk due to any dangerous object consists of frequency–consequences curves. Recommendations are developed on the basis of the results of risk analysis.     

Plant Risk Effect Analysis Focusing on Digital I&C Equipment Failures

Safety-critical digital systems have been installed in nuclear power plants and thus their safety effect evaluation has become an emerging issue. The multi-tasking feature of digital instrumentation and control (I&C) equipment could increase the risk factor because the I&C equipment affects the actuation of the safety functions in several mechanisms. In this study, we quantify the safety of the digital plant protection system in Korean nuclear power plants based on probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) technology. Fifteen fault-tree models for the digital reactor-trip system and seven for the safety-feature actuation system are constructed and integrated into the plant safety assessment model. The result of the sensitivity study shows the boundaries of a plant risk and the effect of the digital equipment failures on the total plant risk.     

Probabilistic risk assessment in nuclear power plant regulation

A specific program is recommended to utilize more effectively probabilistic risk assessment in nuclear power plant regulation. It is based upon the engineering insights from the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) and some follow-on risk assessment research by USNRC. The Three Mile Island accident is briefly discussed from a risk viewpoint to illustrate a weakness in current practice. The development of a probabilistic safety goal is recommended with some suggestions on underlying principles. Some ongoing work on risk perception and the draft probabilistic safety goal being reviewed in Canada is described. Some suggestions are offered on further risk assessment research. Finally, some recent U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission actions are described.     

核电厂安全壳地震概率风险评估

地震概率风险评估可分别基于地震风险解析函数和风险卷积函数实现。本文推导了地震风险解析函数,分析了地震风险解析函数蕴含的两个基本假设和两个近似,分别基于地震风险解析函数和风险卷积函数计算了我国某核电厂安全壳地震风险。结果表明：采用幂指数函数近似地震危险性极值Ⅱ型分布对风险结果无影响;对于算例厂址,地震风险解析函数中KH和kⅠ为常数的近似会高估核电厂安全壳面临的地震风险;我国核电厂安全壳结构地震风险较低,具有较大安全裕量。建议采用地震风险解析函数初步评估我国核电厂安全壳地震风险。     

Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Nuclear Power Plant Containment

Seismic probabilistic risk assessment could be respectively conducted using analytical function of seismic risk and risk convolution function. In this paper, analytical function of seismic risk was conducted, two basic assumptions and two approximations of analytical function of seismic risk were analyzed, and seismic probabilistic risk analysis of a nuclear power plant containment of our country were respectively conducted using analytical function of seismic risk and risk convolution function. The results show that there is no influence on seismic risk results using a power exponent function approximating seismic hazard distribution following extreme value Ⅱ type distribution. For the case of this paper, seismic risk of a nuclear power plant containment is overestimated based on analytical function of seismic risk, which uses constant KH and kⅠ. Seismic risk of a containment is low in our country, which has a large safety margin. It is proposed that the preliminary seismic risk assessment of a nuclear power plant containment of our country using analytical function of seismic risk should be conducted.     

福清核电厂1、2号机组抗震裕量评价

地震是核电厂主要外部灾害之一,地震风险评估对于核电厂的安全评价具有重要的价值。抗震裕量评价(SMA)是开展核电厂地震灾害风险分析的重要方法之一,其目的是为了判断核电厂的抗震设计能力相对于设计基准地震的抗震裕量,找出核电厂的抗震薄弱环节,提高核电厂的抗震能力。本文针对福建福清核电厂1、2号机组进行抗震裕量评价,分析表明电力支持系统和一回路辅助管道的抗震能力相对薄弱,是导致核电厂抗震能力薄弱的主要原因,电力支持系统和一回路辅助管道需进一步提高其抗震能力,且核电厂需考虑编制地震应急规程。     

核电厂临时设备投运人员可靠性评估模型

核电厂临时设备作为严重事故缓解的重要设施,其接入工序大多较为复杂。为了分析核电厂人员在临时设备投运时的可靠性,通过研究福岛核事故后改进项所增设临时设备接入行为的特征,基于人因失误模式和影响分析,定义人因失误发生概率、人因失误影响程度、人因失误可恢复概率为风险因子,结合专家评价与模糊语言理论提出一种临时设备投运人员可靠性评估模型。以全厂断电事故下移动电源的接入任务为例,应用所建模型获得了该任务中的人误模式重要度排序及合理的风险见解,验证了模型的可行性。      

Thermal-hydraulic calculations using MARS code applied to low power and shutdown probabilistic safety assessment in a PWR

The methods developed for full-power probabilistic safety assessment, including thermal-hydraulic methods, have been widely applied to low power and shutdown conditions. Experience from current low power and shutdown probabilistic safety assessments, however, indicates that the thermal-hydraulic methods developed for full-power probabilistic safety assessments are not always reliable when applied to low power and shutdown conditions and consequently may yield misleading and inaccurate risk insights. To increase the usefulness of the low power and shutdown risk insights, the current methods and tools used for thermal-hydraulic calculations should be examined to ascertain whether they function effectively for low power and shutdown conditions. In this study, a platform for relatively detailed thermal-hydraulic calculations applied to low power and shutdown conditions in a pressurized water reactor was developed based on the best estimate thermal-hydraulic analysis code, MARS2.1. To confirm the applicability of the MARS platform to low power and shutdown conditions, many thermal-hydraulic analyses were performed for the selected topic, i.e. the loss of shutdown cooling events for various plant operating states at the Korean standard nuclear power plant. The platform developed in this study can deal effectively with low power and shutdown conditions, as well as assist the accident sequence analysis in low power and shutdown probabilistic safety assessments by providing fundamental data. Consequently, the resulting analyses may yield more realistic and accurate low power and shutdown risk insights.     

Study of ultimate seismic response and fragility evaluation of nuclear power building using nonlinear three-dimensional finite element model

The probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is important for nuclear power buildings in Japan because the risk of the occurrence of seismic ground motions beyond the design assumption cannot be denied. In this paper, the building fragility of the seismic PSA was evaluated using a high accuracy analysis model (three-dimensional nonlinear FEM building model considering soil-structure interaction and basemat uplift behavior). First, the response analyses were conducted increasing the input acceleration up to 3500 Gal, until the damage of the building reached the ultimate condition. The damage of the building was estimated from the shear strain, the axial stress, and the consumed strain energy of the shear walls. Then, the influence on the response given by the vertical ground motion and the basemat uplift was evaluated. In addition, considering the shear destruction of the web wall and compressive crash of the flange wall as the fracture modes, the building fragility was evaluated. As a result, it was shown that the investigated method is efficient for more accurate seismic PSA estimation.     

Living PSA-risk monitoring-current use and developments

In the domain of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) application the most rapidly growing area is the development of living PSA and risk monitoring models. Both models are used mainly for operational risk management (ORM) of nuclear power plants (NPPs). This paper summarizes definitions and aims, gives examples and makes recommendations for further use and developments.     

基于PSA分析事故序列场内工作人员辐射风险研究

从总风险控制的角度,提出了事故工况下场内工作人员剂量与辐射风险接受准则,并建立了相应的评估方法。以典型压水堆核电厂为例,采用概率安全分析（PSA）的全范围事故序列进行验证评价,评估了典型压水堆核电厂事故后场内工作人员的辐射剂量与辐射致死风险。通过验证结果可知,事故后场内工作人员总的辐射致死风险远低于公众由于自然灾害、疾病、交通事故及不同行业的总死亡风险值;事故后工作人员在燃料厂房进行操作时的辐射致死风险占比最高,故工作人员在燃料厂房进行相关操作时,可提前制定相应的辐射防护措施来降低辐射风险;工作群组中其他人员和意外受照人员事故后辐射致死风险占比较高,可通过采用气面罩等方式对气载放射性进行防护以降低其辐射风险。相应的分析结果可为后续核电厂事故后处理方案的制定和事故后场内工作人员辐射防护措施的制定提供借鉴。      

概率安全评价在核能安全分析领域的应用和发展

概率安全评价（PSA）是核能安全分析领域的两大分析方法之一。本文从PSA概念入手,首先从理论基础、分析视角等多个方面比较了确定论和概率论2种分析方法的差异;其次,梳理PSA在核能安全分析领域的历史进程,通过回顾PSA在技术和法规上的变化,展示了PSA与核能安全在提升过程中相互促进的关系;再次,阐释PSA技术在风险量化预测、平衡安全设计、安全决策、安全监管方面的应用,并通过华龙一号（HPR1000）的实例展示了PSA在核能安全分析中的具体应用方式。最后,对PSA技术未来的发展方向进行了预测,指出确定论和概率论2种分析方法将深入融合,PSA分析从安全目标向任务目标转移、从静态向动态转换、从认知向感知转换的发展方向。      

核电站风险监测系统恢复分析方法及其应用

核电站概率安全评价中一般都包含恢复分析的内容,作为概率安全评价技术高级应用的风险监测系统同样也需要恢复分析.在分析风险监测系统实时风险计算特点及要求的基础上,总结了风险监测系统恢复分析特点,并以秦山三核风险监测系统恢复分析为例进行详细介绍.研究给出一般性指导原则,并为核电站概率安全评价模型的建立提供了参考建议.     

Safety assessment of a lithium target

This paper addresses the safety assessment of the lithium target of the International Fusion Materials Irradiation Facility (IFMIF) through evaluating the most important risk factors related to system operation and verifying the fulfillment of the safety criteria. The hazard assessment is based on using a well-structured Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) procedure by detailing on a component-by-component basis all the possible failure modes and identifying their effects on the plant. Additionally, a systems analysis, applying the fault tree technique, is performed in order to evaluate, from a probabilistic standpoint, all the relevant and possible failures of each component required for safe system operation and assessing the unavailability of the lithium target system. The last task includes the thermal–hydraulic transient analysis of the target lithium loop, including operational and accident transients. A lithium target loop model is developed, using the RELAP5/Mod3.2 thermal–hydraulic code, which has been modified to include specific features of IFMIF itself. The main conclusions are that target safety is fulfilled, the hazards associated with lithium operation are confined within the IFMIF security boundaries, the environmental impact is negligible, and the plant responds to the simulated transients by being able to reach steady conditions in a safety situation.     

概率截断对PSA中RAW重要度的影响研究

重要度分析是核电站概率安全评价中一个重要组成部分.本文首先简要介绍了RAW重要度;在详细分析了截断对重要度的影响后,引入了安全风险因子,指出影响该因子的相关因素,同时也提出只有保证安全风险因子在一定的变化范围之内即减少可能丢失的割集,才能最终降低截断对重要度的影响.最后给出一种解决概率截断问题的思路即使用自动概率截断和McFarm相结合的方法,较好地解决了因概率截断而对重要度计算误差问题.     

Development of the site-specific uniform hazard spectra for Korean nuclear power plant sites

A seismic risk analysis has been performed to evaluate the seismic safety of a nuclear power plant for strong earthquakes beyond a design earthquake level. A site-specific median spectrum has generally been used for a seismic fragility analysis of structures and equipment in Korean nuclear power plants as a part of a probabilistic seismic risk assessment. The site-specific response spectrum, however, does not represent the same probability of an exceedance over entire frequency range of interest. The site-specific uniform hazard spectrum (UHS) is more appropriate for use in a seismic probabilistic risk assessment (SPRA) than the site-specific spectrum, since there are only a few strong motion data and seismological information for the nuclear plant sites in Korea. In this study, the uniform hazard spectra were developed using the available seismic hazard data for four Korean NPP sites.     

The use of the uniform risk spectra in the seismic PSA for a PWR power station

This paper describes a simple method for incorporating the effects of the uniform risk spectra (URS) in the seismic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for a pressurized water reactor (PWR) power station. The “traditional” fragility parameters for a range of critical equipment items in a PWR power station on two typical UK sites are modified to incorporate the URS using this simple method and the effect on the high confidence low probability of failure (HCLPF) acceleration levels and seismic-induced failure probabilities of the equipment items is examined. The results illustrate the potential benefit of using the URS in the seismic PSA for a PWR power station.     

辐射防护与安全中的潜在照射

概述了ICRP和IAEA关于辐射防护与安全中潜在照射及其防护的一些重要理念,潜在照射的评价方法,以及三种典型计划照射情况下潜在照射的接受准则和风险控制目标。其中,特别是对核电厂设计中潜在照射的风险控制,除了考虑个人的健康危险外,还应对其所致的社会风险予以考虑。     

Development and assessment of fire-related risk unavailability matrices to support the application of the maintenance rule in a PWR nuclear power plant

Two methods are presented which serve to incorporate the fire-related risk into the current practices in nuclear power plants with respect to the assessment of configurations. The development of these methods is restricted to the compulsory use of fire probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) models. The first method is a fire protection systems and key safety functions unavailability matrix which is developed to identify structures, systems, and components significant for fire-related risk. The second method is a fire zones and key safety functions (KSFs) fire risk matrix which is useful to identify fire zones which are candidates for risk management actions. Specific selection and quantification methodologies have been developed to obtain the matrices. The Monte Carlo method has been used to assess the uncertainty of the unavailability matrix. The analysis shows that the uncertainty is sufficiently bounded. The significant fire-related risk is localized in six KSF representative components and one fire protection system which should be included in the maintenance rule. The unavailability of fire protection systems does not significantly affect the risk. The fire risk matrix identifies the fire zones that contribute the most to the fire-related risk. These zones belong to the control building and electric penetrations building.     

The role of probabilistic methods in the development of regulations for nuclear power plant design — assessment and projections — in the Fed. Rep. Germany

Some views on present use and future potential of both reliability and risk analysis in reactor safety assessment and licensing are given. Although the deterministic approach is still dominating, the part of probabilistic methods in the process of regulating nuclear power plants is steadily increasing. Both methods are complementing one another.