Providing all global energy with wind,water, and solar power,Part II: Reliability,system and transmission costs,and policies

This is Part II of two papers evaluating the feasibility of providing all energy for all purposes (electric power, transportation, and heating/cooling), everywhere in the world, from wind, water, and the sun (WWS). In Part I, we described the prominent renewable energy plans that have been proposed and discussed the characteristics of WWS energy systems, the global demand for and availability of WWS energy, quantities and areas required for WWS infrastructure, and supplies of critical materials. Here, we discuss methods of addressing the variability of WWS energy to ensure that power supply reliably matches demand (including interconnecting geographically dispersed resources, using hydroelectricity, using demand-response management, storing electric power on site, over-sizing peak generation capacity and producing hydrogen with the excess, storing electric power in vehicle batteries, and forecasting weather to project energy supplies), the economics of WWS generation and transmission, the economics of WWS use in transportation, and policy measures needed to enhance the viability of a WWS system. We find that the cost of energy in a 100% WWS will be similar to the cost today. We conclude that barriers to a 100% conversion to WWS power worldwide are primarily social and political, not technological or even economic.     

Providing all global energy with wind,water, and solar power,Part I: Technologies,energy resources,quantities and areas of infrastructure,and materials

Climate change, pollution, and energy insecurity are among the greatest problems of our time. Addressing them requires major changes in our energy infrastructure. Here, we analyze the feasibility of providing worldwide energy for all purposes (electric power, transportation, heating/cooling, etc.) from wind, water, and sunlight (WWS). In Part I, we discuss WWS energy system characteristics, current and future energy demand, availability of WWS resources, numbers of WWS devices, and area and material requirements. In Part II, we address variability, economics, and policy of WWS energy. We estimate that ∼3,800,000 5 MW wind turbines, ∼49,000 300 MW concentrated solar plants, ∼40,000 300 MW solar PV power plants, ∼1.7 billion 3 kW rooftop PV systems, ∼5350 100 MW geothermal power plants, ∼270 new 1300 MW hydroelectric power plants, ∼720,000 0.75 MW wave devices, and ∼490,000 1 MW tidal turbines can power a 2030 WWS world that uses electricity and electrolytic hydrogen for all purposes. Such a WWS infrastructure reduces world power demand by 30% and requires only ∼0.41% and ∼0.59% more of the world's land for footprint and spacing, respectively. We suggest producing all new energy with WWS by 2030 and replacing the pre-existing energy by 2050. Barriers to the plan are primarily social and political, not technological or economic. The energy cost in a WWS world should be similar to that today.     

美国经济发展与电力需求关系对中国电力发展的启示

通过对美国不同时期经济发展与电力消费情况的分析,以及对美国电力与中国电力发展现状的比较,提出中国经济转型期电力发展的探索性建议:中国电力发展应高度重视能源、环境、经济的协调发展,优化电力结构,注重环境保护。     

协调无功功率补偿和谐波电压畸变最小化的方案

提出了协调无功功率补偿和消除谐波的方案．该协调方案能使基波无功功率输出和总谐波电压畸变最小．采用不同的方式处理单调谐滤波器和二阶高通滤波器，并从技术指标、安全约束出发确定滤波器的主要参数．其有效性经数值仿真试验确认．     

基于分布式供能技术的能源系统

由于2003年美国和加拿大大面积停电事故的发生，人们对电网安全的要求越来越高，分布式供能技术引起了世界能源界的广泛关注。能源工业亟待解决的四大问题：合理调整能源结构，进一步提高能源利用效率，改善能源产业的安全性，解决环境污染。而分布式能源系统恰好在这些方面能给以补充，因此大电网与分布式能源系统的合理结合，被认为是21世纪电力工业的发展方向。详细介绍了基于分布式能源系统的概念、特点及发展状况和前景展望。还通过对几种主要的分布式供能技术的技术特点、国内外发展状况及前景展望的介绍，进一步说明了分布式供能技术的发展状况，阐释了分布式供能技术的优势。     

加强无功管理提高功率因数降低电能损耗

分析了影响大学校园供电系统功率因数的各种因素,提出了提高功率因数降低电能损耗的对策。     

低压无功功率补偿装置的选择

无功功率补偿装置在电力系统中的作用是提高电网的功率因数,降低供电变压器及输送线路的损耗,提高供电效率,改善供电环境。所以无功功率补偿装置在电力供电系统中非常重要。合理的选择补偿装置,可以最大限度的减少网络的损耗,提高电网质量。     

国际空间太阳能电站发展现状

空间太阳能电站(Solar Power Satellite,SPS)概念受到了国际的广泛关注,美国和日本都已制定了争取在2030年左右实现商业化运行的发展路线图,并且在概念和技术层面开展了大量的研究工作.中国有必要尽快开展此方面的相关研究工作,为未来的长远发展奠定基础.     

风电场功率控制策略研究与应用

文章根据国家电网对风电场功率控制的需求,提出了风电场功率控制方案。主要描述了风电场功率预测方法、降功率策略以及浅限幅、深限幅的具体策略。该方案经过现场实测,各项指标均达到国家电网要求。     

2009年新能源行业投资策略报告

本文认为,新能源行业中光伏行业的上游多晶硅价格面临巨大压力,受产能快速扩张和国外需求降低影响,2009年下半年到2010年多晶硅市场价将快速跌到成本附近,行业暴利时间所剩不多,而下游的切片、电池组装、发电系统的利润稳定,整个行业发展前景广阔,给予光伏行业"中性"投资评级。新能源行业中风电受国内政策推动,近几年发展迅速,国产化率的提高和市场的扩大,行业盈利进入高潮期,给予风电行业2009年"推荐"投资评级,投资策略上对该行业采取高配置策略。     

云南风能水能互补发电分析和展望

风能水能资源的互补开发、综合利用是一种有效的可再生能源利用方式。通过阐述国际及国内风电发展现状,分析云南电力结构,研究云南风能资源特点,提出在云南建立基于风能水能互补发电的可再生能源体系。     

对我国风电发展战略的冷思考

我国风电发展迅速,计划2010年风电装机容量要达到3500×10^4kW,2020年达到1.5×10^8kW。据IEA预测,2030年世界能源供应仍以化石能源为主,其比重由2006年的80.8%下降到80.4%;2030年世界发电能源结构也以化石能源发电为主,其比重由2006年的74%下降到73%。中国到21世纪中叶传统化石能源仍将居绝对优势地位。因此在可再生能源和新能源的开发过程中,不要急于求成,片面追求能源和电源结构优化不可取。我国未来要依靠核电和新能源发电,但需要通过对其技术经济的进一步研究,才能确定主要靠核电还是风电、太阳能发电或生物质能发电。目前我国风电发展的主要问题是对风电的技术要求起点低,技术路线不对,从国外引进了落后的风电技术。为了我国风电的健康发展,必须加快风电合理利用的研究,包括风电储能和风电直接利用的研究。     

高速发展的中国电力工业

中国电力工业从1978年到2008年取得了跨越式的发展。1978年全国发电装机容量5712×10^4kW，到2008年已达到7．92×10^8kW。1978年全国35kV及以上输电线路回路长度为23×10^4km，2008年已达到116．8×10^4km。从1996年起，全国发电装机容量和发电量一直稳居世界第二位，电力工业建设速度居世界首位。我国电网规模和技术已达到世界领先水平。农村基本实现户户通电，农村通电率已基本达到发达国家的水平。2008年我国燃煤电厂总的能源效率为43．19％．已居世界首位，烟尘排放水平基本与发达国家持平。从2004年开始我国水电装机容量一直稳居世界首位，2008年底水电装机容量达到1．71×10^8kW。中国核电建设进入全力提速阶段，可再生能源发电进入快速发展时期。     

Simulation Analysis for Massive Deployment of Variable Renewables Employing an Optimal Power Generation Mix Model

This paper develops a high time-resolution optimal power generation mix model in its time resolution of 10 minutes on 365 days by linear programming technique. The model allows us to analyse the massive deployment of photovoltaic system and wind power generation in power system explicitly considering those short-term output variation. PV （photovoltaic） and wind output are estimated, employing meteorological database. Simulation results reveal that variable fluctuation derived from a high penetration level of those renewables is controlled by quick load following operation of natural gas combined cycle power plant, pumped-storage hydro power, stationary NAS （sodium and sulfur） battery and the output suppression control of PV and wind. It additionally turns out that the operational configuration of those technologies for the renewable variability differs significantly depending on those renewable output variations in each season and solving the seasonal electricity imbalance as well as the daily imbalance is important if variable renewables are massively deployed.     

Nuclear power: Understanding the economic risks and uncertainties

This paper identifies the fundamental elements and critical research tasks of a comprehensive analysis of the costs and benefits of nuclear power relative to investments in alternative baseload technologies. The proposed framework seeks to: (i) identify the set of expected parameter values under which nuclear power becomes cost competitive relative to alternative generating technologies; (ii) identify the main risk drivers and quantify their impacts on the costs of nuclear power; (iii) estimate the nuclear power option value; (iv) assess the nexus between electricity market structure and the commercial attractiveness of nuclear power; (v) evaluate the economics of smaller sized nuclear reactors; (vi) identify options for strengthening the institutional underpinnings of the international safeguards regime; and (vii) evaluate the proliferation resistance of new generation reactors and fuel cycles.     

西北电力系统如何应对大规模风电开发与利用

分析了我国风电大规模开发面临的主要问题,并指出要解决风电并网的调峰和电力系统稳定等难题,必须依靠和建设统一坚强智能电网,坚定不移的实施“一特四大”战略,在坚持电网电源统一规划的基础上,实施风电与火电配套建设和打捆外送,实现区域问能源资源优化配置,建立风能全国消纳平台,促进新能源、常规电源与电网科学有序协调发展。     

上海地区风电场开发前景探讨

本文分析了我国风力发电现状和前景,针对上海地区风力资源提出了上海地区风电场开发的若干建议。     

Impact of hourly wind power variations on the system operation in the Nordic countries

The variations of wind power production will increase the flexibility needed in the system when significant amounts of load are covered by wind power. When studying the incremental effects that varying wind power production imposes on the power system, it is important to study the system as a whole: only the net imbalances have to be balanced by the system. Large geographical spreading of wind power will reduce variability, increase predictability and decrease the occasions with near zero or peak output. The goal of this work was to estimate the increase in hourly load‐following reserve requirements based on real wind power production and synchronous hourly load data in the four Nordic countries. The result is an increasing effect on reserve requirements with increasing wind power penetration. At a 10% penetration level (wind power production of gross demand) this is estimated as 1·5%–4% of installed wind capacity, taking into account that load variations are more predictable than wind power variations. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

风电功率预测技术的应用现状及运行建议

针对我国风电开发中遇到的风电接入困难、电网调度困难等问题,对国内外解决此类问题的风电功率预测技术进行了详细的阐述。指出我国急需开发风电功率预测系统,并根据我们的风电功率预测研究经验提出了我国风电功率预测宜采用风电企业和电网共同实施的运行模式。希望对我国的风电功率预测发展起到一定的促进作用。