Politics of Practical and Academic Knowledge: A Q‐Method Analysis of Gauging Community Disaster Resilience

This research analysed strong opinions, held by emergency management practitioners and researchers, about developing a regional framework of community resilience indicators. A group of practitioners and another group, of researchers, were planning an International Centre of Excellence, focused on community disaster resilience in Wellington, New Zealand. Five participants from each of the researcher and practitioner groups volunteered to better identify opinion factors among these groups, using Q‐methodology. One perspective supporting complicated analysis to inform strategic decisions was particular to the researcher group. Practitioners shared an opposition to insular, top‐down decision making. Both groups perceived a need to evaluate opportunities for improving post‐disaster outcomes. These perspectives helped develop the International Centre of Excellence and inform comparable approaches to community disaster resilience.     

Grid-based platform for disaster response plan simulation over Internet

Efficient emergency response for disasters need systematic response preparedness and plan. Distributed computer simulation drilling can help to perfect the disaster response plan. Since the disaster response simulation drilling participants are geographically distributed and subjected to different organizations, they need to communicate via the Internet. The HLA-based distributed simulation has been widely used, but presently it is difficult to implement a HLA-based distributed simulation application that needs resources from multi-organizations or communicates on the public Internet environment. The advantages of computational Grid in distributed resources collaboration and management provide a new development opportunity for distributed simulation. In this paper, a distributed simulation framework which realizes extending HLA/RTI to Internet based on Grid service is proposed. The framework aims to the advantage of Grid technology as well as the reusability and interoperability of simulation modules. The results of experiments of the prototype indicate the feasibility of the framework, which provide a platform for disaster emergency response drilling distributed simulation over Internet. At the end of paper, the future development plan has been discussed.     

Modeling and simulation of residents’ response in nuclear disaster

It is important to model and predict residents’ behaviors in an emergency in order to establish good evacuation schemes during disasters. This research presents modeling and simulation of residents’ behaviors in a nuclear disaster focusing on residents’ decision-making processes: information acquisition, situation assessment, and selecting actions. We selected qualitative causal relations between residents’ behaviors and the attributes of information, human, and situations from 57 reviews of the past 12 disaster cases. We then constructed a conceptual model of residents’ behaviors in a conventional stimulus–organism–response (S–O–R) model of human information processing. We adopted probabilistic reasoning (Bayesian belief network) to simulate the situation assessment of a resident in a nuclear disaster. We carried out a simulation using the announcement log of the JCO criticality accident and confirmed that the model could simulate the tendencies in residents’ behaviors observed in the actual disaster and can reflect various features of the conceptual model.     

基于AHP和GIS技术的兰州市应急避难场所减灾能力评价

城市防灾减灾已经成为城市安全研究的关键问题。作为城市防灾减灾的重要场所和有效途径,应急避难场所在降低城市灾害风险、提高城市灾害韧性方面正发挥着越来越重要的作用。在对兰州市应急避难场所进行调研的基础上,将兰州市地质、医院、消防、人口、道路等信息以GIS为数据存储和处理平台构建数据集。再结合层次分析法从安全性、通达性、有效性和保障性4个层面构建一套应急避难场所减灾能力评价指标体系。通过评价分析得到兰州市15个应急避难场所中,4个减灾能力为一级,8个二级,3个三级。其中城关区应急避难场所的综合减灾能力最好。     

Decision making by on-scene incident commanders in nuclear emergencies

A study is reported into the cognitive structures that support incident command decision making by the on-scene incident commander in a nuclear emergency response organisation. These cognitive structures assist incident commanders to assess the situation and make decisions. A card-sorting task was conducted with nuclear on-scene incident commanders (OICs) (n=14) and identified that decision making was influenced by four main factors: availability of procedures; uncertainty; typicality of the decision; and advice from others. The results are discussed in relation to findings from other domains, e.g., emergency services and aviation, and emphasise the importance of considering the specific characteristics of the environment in which the emergency occurs. The findings can be used to determine objectives for directed decision making training for OICs on nuclear installations.     

自然灾害应急预案形式化表示技术

自然灾害应急预案描述了应急响应事件处置的领域知识,是高效应急反应的基础.当前应急预案大多以非结构化文本形式存在,不利于应急决策者快速准确地获取应急处置知识,阻碍了信息技术在自然灾害应急管理中的应用.针对这一现状,对文本应急预案内容进行分析,结合应急组织协调联动过程,提出了一种基于本体的自然灾害应急预案形式化表示方法,并通过系统实现来说明本方法的有效性.     

An intelligent simulation system for earthquake disaster assessment

This paper presents an intelligent simulation system for an earthquake disaster assessment system based on a development platform of a Geographic Information System (GIS) and Artificial Intelligence (AI). This system is designed to identify the weakness of the structure and infrastructure system in pre-earthquake conditions, quickly assess earthquake damage and make an intelligent emergency response for the public and government during the earthquake and post-earthquake. The system includes the following functions: intelligent seismic hazard assessment, earthquake damage and loss evaluation, optimizing emergency response and post-earthquake recovering plan. The principle, design criteria, structure, functions and test results of this system are described in this paper. Based on its functional characteristics, this system is composed of four parts: an information database, analytical modules, an intelligent decision-making sub-system and a friendly user interface. There are 132 coverages and 78 analytical modules included in the information database and analytical modules. With this system, seismic disaster mitigation strategies can be verified during a pre-earthquake, and be executed at the time of an earthquake and post-earthquake; the earthquake resisting capacities for an entire city and all of its communities can be greatly enhanced. To check its reliability and its efficiency, this system has been tested based on a scenario earthquake event in one city, and the related results have also been given in this paper. At the present, this system has been installed and used in Daqing City, China. After running for almost 10 years, this system has successfully been used in rehearsing of seismic disaster mitigation and post-earthquake emergency response. Simultaneously, an optimizing aseismic retrofitting plan in Daqing City has been executed based on results from this system.     

Understanding activated network resilience: A comparative analysis of co‐located and co‐cluster disaster response networks

Building on the resilience literature, this study analyzes the response networks that were activated for four disasters during 2015–2016 (Cyclone Pam, the 2015 Nepal earthquake, Cyclone Winston, the 2016 Ecuador earthquake). The analysis shows that different interrelated resilient capacities are manifested in the activation of response networks. In particular, in exhibiting redundancy and robustness, disaster‐specific network structures are discerned. In both cyclones, response networks resemble a predefined cluster design, whereas in the earthquake disasters, networks are more fluid. Moreover, organizations' varied levels of prior response experiences help build the network's capacities of redundancy and resourcefulness. Implications are discussed in ways to advance contributions to research on resilience and disaster response networks.     

Cognitive Correlates of Improvised Behaviour in Disaster Response: the Cases of the Murrah Building and the World Trade Center

While emergency response actions are known to range from conventional to improvised, less is known about the thinking processes that underlie these actions. This paper presents a statistical analysis of cognition and behaviour reported by police personnel who responded to two significant US disasters: the 1995 bombing of the Murrah Building in Oklahoma City and the 2001 attack on the World Trade Center in New York City. The results suggest the prominence of conventional behaviour coupled with cognitive processes closely tied to recognition, and of improvised behaviours that are linked to more explicit reasoning processes. The results underscore the value of exploring cognitive foundations of both conventional and improvised behaviours to enrich understanding of human response to disaster.     

A conceptual framework for developing solutions that organise social media information for emergency response teams

ABSTRACT

Social media have great power to spread information, and this is particularly noticeable when an emergency occurs. The extraction of accurate information from social media can offer an important resource for emergency management, both in terms of decision-making and increasing situational awareness. This paper describes a conceptual framework for the development of applications to treat messages from social media. It is designed to select, classify and prioritise, using parameters, messages containing information that is relevant to the emergency context. It allows a team to act on this information and to generate rescue actions that contribute to the emergency solution. It has a collaborative bias, providing perceptual, coordination and communication mechanisms. We also present an instantiation and the simulation of its use in the treatment of tweets (Twitter messages) about two emergencies: an earthquake in Mexico City (19/09/2017) and a California fire (December, 2017). The volume of messages is enormous, but most of them do not present significant value to the emergency response. We categorised those that contained relevant information. With only 2% of the tweets, it was possible to identify and prioritise messages with potential to aid in response and rescue operations.     

基于GIS的应急物资调运信息系统研究*

针对应急物流的特点和需求,本文提出了一种基于GIS的应急物资调运信息系统,并对系统的总体结构、工作流程和基本功能模块进行了分析。最后,系统仿真证明了该系统通过基于灾害风险系数和GIS的动态优化路径选择方法,较好地满足了应急物资调运的时效性需求。     

Elicitation by critiquing as a cognitive task analysis methodology

This paper describes elicitation by critiquing (EBC) as a cognitive task analysis (CTA) methodology. EBC takes advantage of the ability to analyze another’s task performance, a necessary skill for all domains. This technique can be used to help address some barriers to CTA methods such as domain access restrictions, frequency and predictability of observable and self-reported events, and difficulties in recruiting domain experts to participate. The technique enables controlled presentation of problem stimuli in order to obtain repeated measuring of the same task from multiple participants. To investigate this method, our team performed a CTA of inferential analysis using the EBC technique. Specifically, we observed six expert intelligence analysts critiquing a trainee analyzing the Ariane 501 launch failure. A second trainee was critiqued for reference. The method can be combined with other CTA methods to build knowledge about a domain, can be considered as an addition to participatory design methods, and can be varied depending on the domain being investigated.     

基于C4.5算法的洪涝灾害应急响应级别分析

自然灾害突发时,有效准确地启动应急响应级别是科学合理地实施应急救援的前提条件。目前,我国的应急响应分级标准是依据民政部制定的三个应急响应指标而确立的。它规定了用于划分响应级别的各指标的取值范围,但未给出如何根据实地灾情进行弹性调整的量化尺度,即酌减比率。针对上述问题本文提出利用历史案例数据库,在C4.5算法的基础上训练出应急响应级别分类器,得出具有实际灾情信息的分级准则。为传统的应急响应级别提供一个合理的酌减比率。通过对洪涝灾害进行实验表明该方法能够提供非常有参考价值的酌减比率。     

The World robot summit disaster robotics category – achievements of the 2018 preliminary competition

The World Robot Summit is a robot Olympics and aims to be held in a different country every four years from 2020. The concept of the Plant Disaster Prevention challenge is daily inspections, checks, and emergency response in industrial plants, and in this competition, robots must carry out these types of missions in a mock-up plant. The concept of the Tunnel Disaster Response and Recovery challenge is emergency response to tunnel disasters, and is a simulation competition whereby teams compete to show their ability to deal with disasters, by collecting information and removing debris. The Standard Disaster Robotics challenge assesses, in the form of a contest, the standard performance levels of a robot that are necessary for disaster prevention and emergency response. The World Robot Summit Preliminary Competition was held at Tokyo Big Sight in October 2018, and 36 teams participated in the Disaster Robotics Category. UGVs and UAVs contended the merits of new technology for solving complex problems, using core technologies such as mobility, sensing, recognition, performing operations, human interface, autonomous intelligence etc., as well as system integration and implementation of strategies for completing missions, gaining high-level results.     

An agent-based simulation system for concert venue crowd evacuation modeling in the presence of a fire disaster

A key activity in emergency management is planning and preparation for disaster. If the right safety measures are implemented beforehand, harmful effects can be significantly mitigated. However, evaluation and selection of effective measures is difficult due to the numerous scenarios that exist in most emergency environments coupled with the high associated cost of testing such scenarios. An agent-based system employs a computational model of autonomous interacting agents in an environment with the purpose of assessing the emergent behavior of the group. This paper presents a prototype of a computer simulation and decision support system that uses agent-based modeling to simulate crowd evacuation in the presence of a fire disaster and provides for testing of multiple disaster scenarios at virtually no cost. The prototype is unique in the current literature as it is specifically designed to simulate a concert venue setting such as a stadium or auditorium and is highly configurable allowing for user definition of concert venues with any arrangement of seats, pathways, stages, exits, and people as well as the definition of multiple fires with fire and smoke dynamics included.     

Nonlinear dynamical systems for theory and research in ergonomics

Abstract

Nonlinear dynamical systems (NDS) theory offers new constructs, methods and explanations for phenomena that have in turn produced new paradigms of thinking within several disciplines of the behavioural sciences. This article explores the recent developments of NDS as a paradigm in ergonomics. The exposition includes its basic axioms, the primary constructs from elementary dynamics and so-called complexity theory, an overview of its methods, and growing areas of application within ergonomics. The applications considered here include: psychophysics, iconic displays, control theory, cognitive workload and fatigue, occupational accidents, resilience of systems, team coordination and synchronisation in systems. Although these applications make use of different subsets of NDS constructs, several of them share the general principles of the complex adaptive system.

Practitioner Summary: Nonlinear dynamical systems theory reframes problems in ergonomics that involve complex systems as they change over time. The leading applications to date include psychophysics, control theory, cognitive workload and fatigue, biomechanics, occupational accidents, resilience of systems, team coordination and synchronisation of system components.     

Cognitive simulation as a tool for cognitive task analysis

Cognitive simulations are runnable computer programs that represent models of human cognitive activities. We show how one cognitive simulation built as a model of some of the cognitive processes involved in dynamic fault management can be used in conjunction with small-scale empirical data on human performance to uncover the cognitive demands of a task, to identify where intention errors are likely to occur, and to point to improvements in the person-machine system. The simulation, called Cognitive Environment Simulation or CES, has been exercised on several nuclear power plant accident scenarios. Here we report one case to illustrate how a cognitive simulation tool such as CES can be used to clarify the cognitive demands of a problem-solving situation as part of a cognitive task analysis.     

应急实体协作能力与活动连续性的关联研究

针对突发事件救援过程中,由于应急队伍等资源实体间协作模式不够优化,调度匹配度不够高等问题,提出基于案例库和预案库,计算应急执行实体的技能贡献度,实体间的关系强度和协作度,用应急实体轨迹挖掘高协作算法来挖掘应急实体间的高协作模式,为提高应急队伍的调度管理的完备度和匹配度提供基础数据,同时基于实体的活动轨迹和活动的连续度,挖掘出高连续性的活动,为救援中决策应急活动的序列奠定基础.结果显示同种、异种应急实体的协调能力随着协作次数的变化规律,跟以往凭借经验决策的结果有很大背离,为应急队伍的合理调度和制定高效的应急预案提供了重要的数据支撑,有实际价值.     

Cognitive simulation as a tool for cognitive task analysis.

Cognitive simulations are runnable computer programs that represent models of human cognitive activities. We show how one cognitive simulation built as a model of some of the cognitive processes involved in dynamic fault management can be used in conjunction with small-scale empirical data on human performance to uncover the cognitive demands of a task, to identify where intention errors are likely to occur, and to point to improvements in the person-machine system. The simulation, called Cognitive Environment Simulation or CES, has been exercised on several nuclear power plant accident scenarios. Here we report one case to illustrate how a cognitive simulation tool such as CES can be used to clarify the cognitive demands of a problem-solving situation as part of a cognitive task analysis.